Sign In or Create an Account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy

Podcast

How China’s EV Industry Got So Big

Inside episode 20 of Shift Key.

Chinese EVs.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

China’s electric vehicle industry has driven itself to the center of the global conversation. Its automakers produce dozens of affordable, technologically advanced electric vehicles that rival — and often beat — anything coming out of Europe or North America. The United States and the European Union have each levied tariffs on its car exports in the past few months, hoping to avoid a “China shock” to their domestic car industries.

Ilaria Mazzocco has watched China’s EV industry grow from a small regional experiment into a planet-reshaping juggernaut. She is now a senior fellow with the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse talk with Ilaria about how the industry got so big, what it means for the world, and how to think about its environmental and national security impacts. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.

Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.

You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.

Here is an excerpt from our conversation:

Jesse Jenkins: I want to ask you a question that I’ve actually gotten from a couple of friends and colleagues — you know, normies, folks that don’t think about energy all the time. This is a question they’ve asked me over the last couple of weeks: Do we actually need 100% tariffs to compete? Is that where we’re at now?

So I’m curious, I mean, is this just politics? Is this just the Biden administration kind of responding to Trump’s chest-beating and anti-China rhetoric as we run up to the election here? Or is it, are we really at the point where we dug ourselves such a hole that we need not just a 25% tariff, which was the level before this — already quite substantial — but a 100% tariff in order to compete? Or to protect the opportunity for the U.S. automakers to get to those economies of scale and have time to grow?

Ilaria Mazzocco: I think that’s a good question because — look, I testified in front of the USCC last year. And you know, I brought the data, and I was like, look, theoretically, these companies have a cost advantage. They could come to the U.S. You know, a 25% tariff isn’t going to stop them.

And I made that argument, but — first of all, I didn’t think that was going to be something that was going to be a problem in nine months, but you know, that’s a different issue. But the argument, though, that was just a cost thing, right? Then there’s a whole argument of, like, what does the American consumer want? What does the Chinese producer want to do, right? What is their strategy? American consumers are very different from Chinese consumers, right? Chinese consumers are much more similar to European consumers in terms of commuting time, preference for smaller vehicles, right? Americans like pickup trucks, which — you know, I just went to China in May. I saw a lot of EVs of all kinds. I did not see any pickup trucks, right? That’s like a pretty American kind of thing. It’s not clear that Chinese automakers would be able to compete on that, right?

So I think it’s quite possible that there would be a very interested part of the American market in these Chinese EVs, especially maybe the lower cost ones — maybe urban households that want a cheaper second vehicle, or something of the sort.But is that going to take over a huge portion of the American market? Is that really going to be competition for GM, or for the F-150? Like, I don’t know, actually. I think there’s an open question there, but clearly the Biden administration didn’t want to take any chances on that.

So I think there’s also this element where we also have preconceptions of what the American consumer wants, and clearly we’re not going to put that to the test, right? We’re not going to have these lower cost EVs come into the market and maybe reshape how people approach this. And as I said before, I just don’t think it’s realistic. A world in which an American government allows, the Detroit Three to fail is just not particularly realistic. But I do worry — and I mean, I’ve said this before, that it is a game, right? It is a balance that you need to get when you’re playing with tariffs. Because when you protect an industry, you give them time, but you also need to give them incentives. And the IRA does that. But you need to give them some pressure, right?

And so I think, where’s the pressure going to come from? Is it going to come from emissions standards? Or is it going to come from competition? Clearly it’s not going to come from competition from China. Is it going to come from competition with Korean automakers or Japanese automakers? Question mark, right? We don’t know.

This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by…

Watershed’s climate data engine helps companies measure and reduce their emissions, turning the data they already have into an audit-ready carbon footprint backed by the latest climate science. Get the sustainability data you need in weeks, not months. Learn more at watershed.com.

As a global leader in PV and ESS solutions, Sungrow invests heavily in research and development, constantly pushing the boundaries of solar and battery inverter technology. Discover why Sungrow is the essential component of the clean energy transition by visiting sungrowpower.com.

Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.

You’re out of free articles.

Subscribe today to experience Heatmap’s expert analysis 
of climate change, clean energy, and sustainability.
To continue reading
Create a free account or sign in to unlock more free articles.
or
Please enter an email address
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
Politics

The Party of ‘All of the Above’ Is Now ‘Anything But’

The tension between the two GOP energy philosophies — one admitting renewables, the other firmly rejecting — could tank the SPEED Act.

The Capitol and renewables.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

The fate of a House GOP permitting deal stands on a knife’s edge.

During a dramatic vote on the House floor Tuesday, far-right Republicans and opponents of the offshore wind industry joined with Democrats in a nearly-successful attempt to defeat a procedural vote on the SPEED Act, a bill to streamline implementation of the National Environmental Policy Act.

Keep reading...Show less
AM Briefing

Ford’s EV Writedown

On EU’s EV reversal, ‘historic’ mineral deals, and India’s nuclear opening

Jim Farley and a Ford F-150 Lightning.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Yet another powerful atmospheric river, this one dubbed Pineapple Express, is on track to throttle the Pacific Northwest this week • Bolivia is facing landslides • Western Australia is under severe risk of bushfire.


Keep reading...Show less
Green
Climate Tech

There’s a New Color for Hydrogen: Orange

The startup Vema just signed a new offtake agreement to provide 36,000 tons of orange hydrogen per year for data centers.

Hydrogen and rocks.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Love it or hate it, it’s looking like there may be a good reason to add yet another color to the hydrogen rainbow. In 2022, Florian Osselin, co-founder and CSO of the startup Vema Hydrogen, published a paper in Nature called “Orange hydrogen is the new green,” in which he outlines how to expedite the natural process of hydrogen formation in certain underground geologies, laying the foundation for what the company now calls Engineered Mineral Hydrogen.

Osselin’s startup, Vema, is now announcing a 10-year conditional offtake agreement with the off-grid data center power startup Verne to supply over 36,000 metric tons per year of so-called “orange” hydrogen for data centers. The announcement comes on the heels of Vema’s $13 million seed round earlier this year, which supports the company’s efforts to take its engineered hydrogen experiments out of the lab and into the field.

Keep reading...Show less
Blue