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On the “Transmission Interconnection Roadmap,” solar tariffs, and AI
Current conditions: Parts of Dubai remain waterlogged after this week’s epic rainfall • A volcanic eruption in Indonesia produced a 1.6-mile ash column • Severe thunderstorms are headed for the Midwest and Southern Plains.
The Department of Energy yesterday unveiled its plans to help solve a problem plaguing the clean energy sector: the backlog of grid connections. According to Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm, nearly 12,000 solar, wind, and storage projects are ready and waiting to be connected to the grid. “The high volume of projects and inadequate existing procedures for interconnection has led to uncertainties, delays, inequities, and added costs for developers, consumers, utilities, and their regulators,” the DOE said in its announcement. The new “Transmission Interconnection Roadmap” aims to speed up connection times by providing more transparency on data for existing projects, creating fast-track options for interconnection, and adopting requirements and standards for generation interconnection, among other initiatives. The Biden administration has a goal of 100% clean electricity by 2035.
A new study published in the journal Nature concludes that global incomes will be at least 20% lower over the next 26 years due to climate change compared to what The Associated Press called “a fictional world that’s not warming.” These income losses will amount to $38 trillion per year by 2049, and that’s regardless of how much we limit emissions going forward, or whether per capita income increases – in other words, this financial toll is already baked in and could grow dramatically depending on how much or little we cut emissions now. The researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research also said the losses will be six times more expensive than it would be to cut emissions and limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius. “Protecting our climate is much cheaper than not doing so,” said Leonie Wenz, who led the study. Lower-latitude areas and countries least responsible for man-made climate change will be hit the hardest, but everyone will be affected.
For two years, the solar panel technologies imported into the U.S. from China and other countries have been exempt from tariffs, but that policy will soon be reversed, according toReuters. Two sources familiar with the Biden administration’s plans say the change comes at the request of Hanwha Qcells, a South Korean company investing billions in manufacturing in the U.S., and several other U.S. solar manufacturers. There’s no clear timeline for when the tariffs will be reinstated. The report propelled shares of America’s biggest solar manufacturer, First Solar. Bloombergnoted that the existing exemption applies to imported two-sided solar panels, resulting in those panels being installed all over the place, including on rooftops “where the attribute offers no benefit.”
First Solar shares, up as of pre-market trading on Thursday morning.CNBC
An intense heat wave that hit West Africa and the Sahel recently “would have been impossible without human-caused climate change,” according to analysis from climate scientists from the World Weather Attribution. Temperatures soared above 113 degrees Fahrenheit in late March and early April, at one point reaching 119 degrees in Mali. At least 102 heat-related deaths were recorded in the first four days of April. The researchers analyzed weather data and climate models and concluded that such extremes wouldn’t have occurred without increased global temperatures from burning fossil fuels. “Events like these will become much more common, and even more dangerous, unless the world moves away from fossil fuels and countries rapidly reduce emissions to net zero,” the report said. “If global warming reaches 2°C, as is expected to occur in the 2040s or 2050s unless emissions are rapidly halted, similar events will occur 10 times more frequently.”
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Jeff Bezos wants ideas for how the power of artificial intelligence can be harnessed to help address climate change and nature loss, and he’s willing to throw some money at the best ones. His Bezos Earth Fund announced this week its “AI for Climate and Nature Grand Challenge,” which will award $100 million in grants to help support proposals from “practitioners, researchers, and innovators in universities, NGOs, private companies, and organizations.” It’s starting with projects that focus on “sustainable proteins, biodiversity conservation, and power grid optimization” plus one “wild card” category. Up to 30 seed grants will be awarded. Applications open in May and the recipients will be unveiled in September.
Researchers say installing reflective materials called “retroflectors” on roads and buildings could reduce surface temperatures in cities by up to 20 degrees Celsius.
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Plus 3 more outstanding questions about this ongoing emergency.
As Los Angeles continued to battle multiple big blazes ripping through some of the most beloved (and expensive) areas of the city on Thursday, a question lingered in the background: What caused the fires in the first place?
Though fires are less common in California during this time of the year, they aren’t unheard of. In early December 2017, power lines sparked the Thomas Fire near Ventura, California, which burned through to mid-January. At the time it was the largest fire in the state since at least the 1930s. Now it’s the ninth-largest. Although that fire was in a more rural area, it ignited for many of the same reasons we’re seeing fires this week.
Read on for everything we know so far about how the fires started.
Five major fires started during the Santa Ana wind event this week:
Officials have not made any statements about the cause of any of the fires yet.
On Thursday morning, Edward Nordskog, a retired fire investigator from the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department, told me it was unlikely they had even begun looking into the root of the biggest and most destructive of the fires in the Pacific Palisades. “They don't start an investigation until it's safe to go into the area where the fire started, and it just hasn't been safe until probably today,” he said.
It can take years to determine the cause of a fire. Investigators did not pinpoint the cause of the Thomas Fire until March 2019, more than two years after it started.
But Nordskog doesn’t think it will take very long this time. It’s easier to narrow down the possibilities for an urban fire because there are typically both witnesses and surveillance footage, he told me. He said the most common causes of wildfires in Los Angeles are power lines and those started by unhoused people. They can also be caused by sparks from vehicles or equipment.
At about 27,000 acres burned, these fires are unlikely to make the charts for the largest in California history. But because they are burning in urban, densely populated, and expensive areas, they could be some of the most devastating. With an estimated 2,000 structures damaged so far, the Eaton and Palisades fires are likely to make the list for most destructive wildfire events in the state.
And they will certainly be at the top for costliest. The Palisades Fire has already been declared a likely contender for the most expensive wildfire in U.S. history. It has destroyed more than 1,000 structures in some of the most expensive zip codes in the country. Between that and the Eaton Fire, Accuweather estimates the damages could reach $57 billion.
While we don’t know the root causes of the ignitions, several factors came together to create perfect fire conditions in Southern California this week.
First, there’s the Santa Ana winds, an annual phenomenon in Southern California, when very dry, high-pressure air gets trapped in the Great Basin and begins escaping westward through mountain passes to lower-pressure areas along the coast. Most of the time, the wind in Los Angeles blows eastward from the ocean, but during a Santa Ana event, it changes direction, picking up speed as it rushes toward the sea.
Jon Keeley, a research scientist with the US Geological Survey and an adjunct professor at the University of California, Los Angeles told me that Santa Ana winds typically blow at maybe 30 to 40 miles per hour, while the winds this week hit upwards of 60 to 70 miles per hour. “More severe than is normal, but not unique,” he said. “We had similar severe winds in 2017 with the Thomas Fire.”
Second, Southern California is currently in the midst of extreme drought. Winter is typically a rainier season, but Los Angeles has seen less than half an inch of rain since July. That means that all the shrubland vegetation in the area is bone-dry. Again, Keeley said, this was not usual, but not unique. Some years are drier than others.
These fires were also not a question of fuel management, Keeley told me. “The fuels are not really the issue in these big fires. It's the extreme winds,” he said. “You can do prescription burning in chaparral and have essentially no impact on Santa Ana wind-driven fires.” As far as he can tell, based on information from CalFire, the Eaton Fire started on an urban street.
While it’s likely that climate change played a role in amplifying the drought, it’s hard to say how big a factor it was. Patrick Brown, a climate scientist at the Breakthrough Institute and adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University, published a long post on X outlining the factors contributing to the fires, including a chart of historic rainfall during the winter in Los Angeles that shows oscillations between very wet and very dry years over the past eight decades. But climate change is expected to make dry years drier in Los Angeles. “The LA area is about 3°C warmer than it would be in preindustrial conditions, which (all else being equal) works to dry fuels and makes fires more intense,” Brown wrote.
And more of this week’s top renewable energy fights across the country.
1. Otsego County, Michigan – The Mitten State is proving just how hard it can be to build a solar project in wooded areas. Especially once Fox News gets involved.
2. Atlantic County, New Jersey – Opponents of offshore wind in Atlantic City are trying to undo an ordinance allowing construction of transmission cables that would connect the Atlantic Shores offshore wind project to the grid.
3. Benton County, Washington – Sorry Scout Clean Energy, but the Yakima Nation is coming for Horse Heaven.
Here’s what else we’re watching right now…
In Connecticut, officials have withdrawn from Vineyard Wind 2 — leading to the project being indefinitely shelved.
In Indiana, Invenergy just got a rejection from Marshall County for special use of agricultural lands.
In Kansas, residents in Dickinson County are filing legal action against county commissioners who approved Enel’s Hope Ridge wind project.
In Kentucky, a solar project was actually approved for once – this time for the East Kentucky Power Cooperative.
In North Carolina, Davidson County is getting a solar moratorium.
In Pennsylvania, the town of Unity rejected a solar project. Elsewhere in the state, the developer of the Newton 1 solar project is appealing their denial.
In South Carolina, a state appeals court has upheld the rejection of a 2,300 acre solar project proposed by Coastal Pine Solar.
In Washington State, Yakima County looks like it’ll keep its solar moratorium in place.
And more of this week’s top policy news around renewables.
1. Trump’s Big Promise – Our nation’s incoming president is now saying he’ll ban all wind projects on Day 1, an expansion of his previous promise to stop only offshore wind.
2. The Big Nuclear Lawsuit – Texas and Utah are suing to kill the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s authority to license small modular reactors.
3. Biden’s parting words – The Biden administration has finished its long-awaited guidance for the IRA’s tech-neutral electricity credit (which barely changed) and hydrogen production credit.