Electric Vehicles
AM Briefing: A Major Merger
On big changes in the auto industry, Christmas weather, and methane emissions
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On big changes in the auto industry, Christmas weather, and methane emissions
On a new IEA report, EV batteries, and some good news about emissions
It’s tough to generate enough power to make them worth it, but two new companies are trying.
Why he did is anybody’s guess. But we’re all about to suffer the consequences.
Plug-and-charge might, maybe, finally be coming in 2025.
On ExxonMobil’s behind the meter plans, a lawsuit in Washington, and Ontario’s warning to Trump.
Revisiting a favorite episode with guest Ilaria Mazzocco.
The Chinese electric automaker BYD is entering a new stage in its history. Last month, it sold more than half a million electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. BYD has already shipped more cars this year than Ford and Honda, and it is fast coming for Volkswagen, GM, and Toyota’s crowns as the world’s three largest automakers.
Earlier this year, Rob and Jesse spoke with Ilaria Mazzocco, a senior fellow with the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. She has watched China’s EV industry grow from a small regional experiment into a planet-reshaping juggernaut. On this week’s episode of Shift Key, we’re re-running that conversation — one of our favorites ever to happen on the show. We’ll be back with a new episode next week.
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.
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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: It’s been clear since Trump pulled out of the Paris Agreement, to some degree, that China was trying to race ahead in these clean technologies in a way that America was not. But I feel like the full arrival of the Chinese EV industry in the U.S. discourse has only happened in the past year. Can you zoom out and just give us a sense of how we went from the Chinese car industry being … not a joke, necessarily, but not really seen as a serious global competitor, to now, where the Chinese EV industry is shaping U.S. and European policy at the highest levels?
Ilaria Mazzocco: I actually think the fact that the traditional internal combustion engine automotive industry in China was so uncompetitive is part of the reason why we’re here, right? So the Chinese government for decades tried to come up with ways of getting a world-class industry. So it’s like, you know, to access the Chinese market, you have to create a joint venture, and the government picked — usually it was state-owned enterprises, which are not known for their dynamism and creativity and innovation.
And in fact the car companies that did do better in China were often sort of the private, or like the small state-owned enterprises that were sort of coming in from the margins and maybe struggled to get a license to operate initially — like Geely, right? Geely was sort of a classic example of that.
But essentially, by around the global financial crisis, there was the sense that this just wasn’t working. And this was also at a time when the Chinese bureaucracy is starting to think more and more about industrial upgrading. Salaries in China are going up. So you want to think of what’s next steps as maybe textiles and other sort of lower-end manufacturing moves outside of China. And so the thinking was, well, why don’t we invest and put our weight behind the next-generation technology in automotive, and sort of invest in that. And that way, we’re competing on a level playing field.
Ironically, that’s sort of the idea — or in the sense that, you know, you’re not competing with companies that have been accumulating IP for over 100 years, you’re sort of playing … Chinese companies may have even an advantage if they start early.
This was sort of the brainchild of the minister at the time, the minister of science and technology, who was an auto guy, Wan Gang. And so this was a fairly small project, to be honest. This wasn’t something that the secretary of the party or the premier who came up with it. It was a ministry-level initiative. There were four ministries working on it, but yeah, pretty small. It was really pilot city programs, not a big success initially — kind of expensive — but they stick with it. And that’s kind of the key there, right? So that’s what the big advantage that the Chinese bureaucracy has, that it can have that policy continuity. These are not politicized things, issues. These are, there’s also not, there’s no voters there looking at the budget and saying, You’re spending a ton of money on this unproven technology. And so that’s one advantage.
What I also like to point out is that it was the right time. This is, they started the program to commercialize, right? Obviously there’d been R&D grants and that sort of thing, but there’s a program to start actually giving consumers rebates to buy EVs and incentivizing taxi fleets, which was pretty crucial in China, and bus fleets to electrify self-starts around 2009, 2010. And you know, in those years, that’s also when Tesla is starting to emerge, right? This is a moment in which the technology is … not mature, but it’s mature enough that it can actually make real strides when it starts to be commercialized.
And then the third part is you had really good entrepreneurs. You had BYD that was just there lobbying to get this. You actually had Tesla in there trying to get more incentives for this, as well. But, you know, you had Chinese companies like BYD that were really at the margins and quite hungry that really took up this opportunity and started investing and really believed in it. So I think you had that combination of factors and, you know, now we’re like 15 years later, I think we’re seeing the results of it.
I will say it doesn’t always work that way. To an extent, there’s an element of luck, right? This is the problem with industrial policy. You can do the work right in the research and you can get it right, but it’s still not a … you don’t always know that it’s going to work out. And I give the example of fuel cell technology. They received the same types of subsidies, fuel cell passenger vehicles in China. And that, you know, we’re nowhere close to seeing a mass market for that.
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
Watershed’s climate data engine helps companies measure and reduce their emissions, turning the data they already have into an audit-ready carbon footprint backed by the latest climate science. Get the sustainability data you need in weeks, not months. Learn more at watershed.com.
As a global leader in PV and ESS solutions, Sungrow invests heavily in research and development, constantly pushing the boundaries of solar and battery inverter technology. Discover why Sungrow is the essential component of the clean energy transition by visiting sungrowpower.com.
Intersolar & Energy Storage North America is the premier U.S.-based conference and trade show focused on solar, energy storage, and EV charging infrastructure. To learn more, visit intersolar.us.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
On EV growth, battery prices, and Arctic drilling
Current conditions: A severe heat wave warning is in place for large parts of Australia’s Queensland state, where “unsettling” thunderstorms are expected • A bitter Arctic blast is heading for the Upper Midwest • An explosive wildfire is raging in Malibu, California, where at least 6,000 people have been told to evacuate immediately.
Microsoft yesterday unveiled a new design for data centers that reduces water use. The design “optimizes AI workloads and consumes zero water for cooling,” saving an estimated 125 million liters of water per year per data center. It does this by recycling water through a closed loop system, moving it between the servers and the water chillers. All new Microsoft data center designs will now be based on this cooling technology, and some pilots will come online in 2026.
Microsoft
The Biden administration confirmed its plans to hold an oil and gas drilling lease sale in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge starting on January 9. The amount of land up for auction – some 400,000 acres – is the minimum required by law. The move seems to have angered people on all sides, for many different reasons. Environmentalists will remember that Biden campaigned on a promise to stop drilling in the ANWR. “The Arctic Refuge deserves to remain a place of refuge, not an industrial oilfield lining the pockets of big oil executives,” Kristen Miller, executive director of Alaska Wilderness League, said in a statement. Some Indigenous groups, however, want even more land included in the sale to maximize local economic benefits.
Lithium-ion battery pack prices dropped 20% this year, the biggest decline since 2017, according to BloombergNEF’s annual battery price survey, out today. It cites “significant overcapacity” as the main reason for the price change. Manufacturers expanded production in anticipation of a surge in EV sales that has been slow to materialize, and are now trying to sell off stock. Battery EV pack prices dropped by 27% this year, dropping below $100 per kilowatt-hour for the first time ever. This price point is “an oft-cited rule of thumb for where EVs reach price parity with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEs),” the report adds. This will be hastened by increased production of cheaper batteries outside of China.
BloombergNEF
And sticking with EVs for a moment, Rivian’s stock got a nice boost after Benchmark Securities gave it a “buy” rating and projected a “massive market opportunity.” “We believe Rivian’s capability to manufacture EV’s domestically with in-house designed software has been validated through its partnerships with Amazon and Volkswagen,” wrote analyst Mickey Legg. “VW’s industry relationships and experience will help [Rivian] negotiate with suppliers and provide engineering synergies.” Rivian shares were up 11% in pre-market trading.
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Scientists are urging the European Union to ban solar geoengineering methods such as injecting aerosols into the stratosphere, cloud brightening/altering, and space mirrors. “The benefits and risks of these solar radiation modification technologies are highly uncertain,” the European Commission’s chief scientific advisers wrote, warning these activities could “bring substantial negative ecological and economic effects.” Instead, the group suggested prioritizing reducing greenhouse gas emissions as the “main solution to avoid dangerous levels of climate change.” It also called for implementing new rules that govern this practice worldwide.
The EPA has officially banned the use of trichloroethylene (TCE) and perchloroethylene (Perc), two common solvents known to cause cancer and other health problems.