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On Greenland jockeying, Brazilian rare earth, and atomic British sea power
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On Greenland jockeying, Brazilian rare earth, and atomic British sea power
Uptake of electric vehicles may have slowed, but internal combustion is still fading.
On PJM backs offshore wind, reconciliation 2.0, and nuclear to the moon
On a $6 billion EV write-down, a disappointing bullet train, and talks on a major mining merger
On Google’s energy glow up, transmission progress, and South American oil
Current conditions: Nearly two dozen states from the Rockies through the Midwest and Appalachians are forecast to experience temperatures up to 30 degrees above historical averages on Christmas Day • Parts of northern New York and New England could get up to a foot of snow in the coming days • Bethlehem, the West Bank city south of Jerusalem in which Christians believe Jesus was born, is preparing for a sunny, cloudless Christmas Day, with temperatures around 60 degrees Fahrenheit.
This is our last Heatmap AM of 2025, but we’ll see you all again in 2026!
Just two weeks after a federal court overturned President Donald Trump’s Day One executive order banning new offshore wind permits, the administration announced a halt to all construction on seaward turbines. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum announced the move Monday morning on X: “Due to national security concerns identified by @DeptofWar, @Interior is PAUSING leases for 5 expensive, unreliable, heavily subsidized offshore wind farms!” As Heatmap’s Jael Holzman explained in her writeup, there are only five offshore wind projects currently under construction in U.S. waters: Vineyard Wind, Revolution Wind, Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind, Sunrise Wind, and Empire Wind. “The Department of War has come back conclusively that the issues related to these large offshore wind programs create radar interference, create genuine risk for the U.S., particularly related to where they are in proximity to our East Coast population centers,” Burgum told Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo.
The new blanket policy is likely to slow progress on passing the big bipartisan federal permitting reform bill. The SPEED Act (if you need an explainer, read this one from Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo) passed in the House last week. But key Senate Democrats said they would not champion a bill with provisions they might otherwise support unless the legislation curbed federal agencies’ power to yank already-granted permits, a move clearly meant to thwart Trump’s “total war on wind.” Republican leaders in the House stripped the measure out at the last moment. On Monday afternoon, the senators called the SPEED Act “dead in the water.”
The Department of the Interior and the Forest Service greenlit the 500-kilovolt Cross-Tie transmission project to carry electricity 217 miles between substations in Utah and Nevada. Dubbed the “missing pathway” between two states with fast-growing solar and geothermal industries, the power line had previously won support from a Biden-era program at the Department of Energy’s Grid Deployment Office. Last week, the federal agencies approved a right-of-way for a route that crosses the Humboldt-Toiyabe National Forest and public land controlled by the Interior Department’s Bureau of Land Management. In a press release directing the public to official documents, the bureau said the project “supports the administration’s priority to strengthen the reliability and security of the United States electric grid.”
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Google parent Alphabet bought the data center and energy infrastructure developer Intersect for nearly $5 billion in cash. Google had already held a minority stake in the company. But the deal, which also includes assuming debt, allows the tech behemoth to “expand capacity, operate more nimbly in building new power generation in lockstep with new data center load, and reimagine energy solutions to drive U.S. innovation and leadership,” Sundair Pichai, the chief executive of Alphabet and Google, said in a statement.
The acquisition comes as Google steps up its energy development, with deals to commercialize all kinds of nascent energy technologies, including next-generation nuclear reactors, fusion, and geothermal. The company, as Heatmap's Matthew Zeitlin noted this morning, has also hired a team of widely respected experts to advance its energy work, including the researcher Tyler Norris and and the Texas grid analyst Doug Lewin. But Monday’s deal wowed industry watchers. “Damn, big tech is now just straight up acquiring power developers to scale up data centers faster,” Aniruddh Mohan, an electricity analyst at The Brattle Group consultancy, remarked on X. In response, the researcher Isaac Orr joked: “Next they buy out the utilities themselves.”
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The long duration energy storage developer Hydrostor has won final approval from California regulators for a 500-megawatt advanced compressed air energy storage project capable of pumping out eight hours of continuous discharge to the grid. With the thumbs up from the California Energy Commission, the Willow Rock Energy Storage Center will be “shovel ready” next year. The technology works by using electricity from wind and solar to power a compressor that pushes air into an underground cavern, displacing water, then capturing the heat generated during the compression and storing the energy in the pressurized chamber. When the energy is discharged, the water pressure forces the air up, and the excess heat warms the expanding air, driving a turbine to generate electricity. The plant would be Hydrostor’s first facility in the U.S. The company has another “late-stage” development underway in Australia, and 7 gigawatts of projects in the pipeline worldwide.

The world is awash in oil and prices are on track to keep falling as rising supply outstrips demand. At just 0.8 million barrels per day, predictions for growth in 2026 are the lowest in the last four years. But Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina will account for at least half of the expected global increase in production of crude. In its latest forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the three South American nations will account for 0.4 million barrels per day of the 0.8 million spike projected for 2026. The three countries — oddly enough one of the only potential trios on the mostly Spanish-speaking continent with three distinct languages, given Brazil’s Portuguese and Guyana’s English — comprised 28% of all global growth in 2025.
A fungal blight that gets worse as temperatures rise is killing conifers, including Christmas trees. But scientists at Mississippi State University have discovered a unique Leyland cypress tree at a Louisiana farm with a resistance to Passalora sequoia, the fast-spreading disease that attacks the needles of evergreens. In a statement, Jeff Wilson, an associate professor of ornamental horticulture at Mississippi State University, said that, prior to the study, “there had not been any research on Christmas trees in Mississippi since the late ‘70s or early ‘80s, but there is a real need for the research today.” May all your endeavors in the new year be as curious, civic-minded, and fruitful as that. Wishing you all a merry Christmas, happy New Year, and what I hope is a restful time off until we return to your inbox in January.
Just as Americans have started to revolt against expensive cars.
The car bubble couldn’t last forever. For years now, the steadily rising cost of new vehicles has led American drivers to take on longer and longer car loans — six, seven, even eight years, as opposed to the four or five that used to be typical. The average new car sale in America crept up to nearly $50,000 in November, a seemingly unsustainable number for a country drowning in debt.
But as 2025 draws to a close, we’re seeing more signs that Americans are starting to change their behavior, according to the Wall Street Journal. With people keeping their old cars even longer and more shopping used, new car sales saw very little growth this year, and are projected to look flat again in 2026. Even the seemingly bulletproof full-size trucks that make up the backbone of the U.S. auto industry aren’t immune. Kelley Blue Book says the Ram 1500, which has had a lock on the number three spot in all U.S. auto sales behind the Ford F-150 and Chevrolet Silverado, is slated to drop out of the top three this year.
A bear market sounds especially bleak for electric vehicles. EVs, after all, have long suffered an affordability problem, and the Trump administration this fall killed off the federal tax break meant to make them more cost-competitive with fossil fuel vehicles. A country of cost-conscious drivers is even less likely to pay a premium for battery power.
Yet as a new year dawns, EVs in America might be better positioned than you think.
For one thing, this isn’t the EV market of a couple years ago. That reckoning for too-expensive pickup trucks? Electrics already went through it. Consider the Ford F-150 Lightning, which was quietly discontinued this month. The fully electric version of America’s best-selling vehicle was an amazing piece of technology, with breakthrough features like the ability to back up a home’s power supply with the truck battery. But the pickup cost a fortune because of how much battery it takes to make an EV truck do the kinds of things a gas-powered F-150 can do. The inflated price, along with many truck buyers’ reluctance to go EV for political and cultural reasons, led to disappointing sales and shattered any dreams of an easy electrification of America’s massive pickup truck market.
As a result, electric pickup trucks were already moving toward the smaller, more affordable end of the market even before the F-150 Lightning died. Ford’s maintains that its mission to fix its flailing EV division will start with a far more affordable $30,000 midsize pickup. One of the most anticipated electric models is the bare-bones Slate truck, which is slated (pun intended) to start in the mid $20,000s.
We’re also on the cusp of seeing more new EVs that are cost-competitive with gas-burners even without the big tax credits. I’ve repeatedly lauded Chevy for delivering a version of the Equinox EV at $35,000, which helped the vehicle become the third-best-selling electric in America (and top seller that’s not a Tesla). A variety of electric cars arriving in 2026 will come in close to the $30,000 mark or below, a group that includes Toyota’s battery-powered version of its C-HR small crossover and the promising revivals of both the Nissan Leaf and the Chevy Bolt.
No, we still don’t have the $25,000 EV that would compete directly with a Toyota Corolla. But there’s ample opportunity for electrics to compete at the budget end of the car market, with no economy car segment left to speak of. KBB notes that the car industry this year offered just five models that truly cost less than $25,000, all things considered, down from 36 such vehicles in 2017. The car companies went all-in on more expensive — and more lucrative — trucks and SUVs as Americans displayed a limitless hunger for them. Now that buyers are finally curbing that appetite, there is a window of opportunity for the new wave of economy-focused EVs.
That’s not to say the EV market is headed for smooth sailing. As Mack Hogan at InsideEVs has written, battery-powered cars still have a major problem with “uncompetitive” models. Beyond the familiar success stories — Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y, the Ford Mustang Mach-E, Hyundai’s Ioniq 5, and a few others — the car market is littered with EVs that sell just a few hundred or thousand models per year, often because they simply don't measure up to their gas rivals on cost or performance. It’s hard to see how those vehicles find their place, especially when some of them still suffer from disappointing battery ranges and driving comfort that doesn’t measure up to their more polished petroleum-powered cousins.
Still, there’s reason for hope that some of the affordable electrics will find their footing among penny-counting drivers, especially as more of them are enticed by the potential of saying goodbye to pumping gas and paying for oil changes. Because they started out expensive, EVs have yet to be seen as economy cars — in the United States, at least. But with more affordable models arriving just as the car market starts to creak, that could soon change.