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Of Mines and Men
On New Jersey’s rate freeze, ‘global water bankruptcy,’ and Japan’s nuclear restarts
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On New Jersey’s rate freeze, ‘global water bankruptcy,’ and Japan’s nuclear restarts
On Greenland jockeying, Brazilian rare earth, and atomic British sea power
Uptake of electric vehicles may have slowed, but internal combustion is still fading.
On PJM backs offshore wind, reconciliation 2.0, and nuclear to the moon
On a $6 billion EV write-down, a disappointing bullet train, and talks on a major mining merger
This was the year of the fire sale. With the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit expiring at the end of September, buyers raced to get good deals on EVs and made sales numbers shoot up. Then, predictably, sales fell off a cliff at the end of the year, when those offers-you-can’t-refuse disappeared.
Now that a new year has arrived, the word might be “uncertain.” Tariffs and the loss of federal incentives have tossed a heavy dose of chaos into the EV industry, causing many automakers to reconsider their plans for what electric cars they’re going to build and where they’re going to make them. And yet, at the same time, some of the most anticipated new electric models we’ve seen in years are supposed to be coming to America next year. Here’s what to know.
Just as changes in federal policy threaten to make electric cars more expensive — at a moment when Americans are clearly tiring of out-of-control car prices — here comes a new batch of long-overdue affordable EVs. Among the most important is the Chevy Bolt, a fan favorite from the previous generation of electric vehicles that ended its first run in 2023. With the basic version starting at $29,000 for a car with 250-plus miles of range, the little Chevy might inspire a new legion of fans — perhaps one large enough to convince General Motors to extend what they’re calling a limited Bolt resurrection into a car that’s on sale for good.
The Nissan Leaf, another name from a bygone era, is also coming back to the States. The Leaf, you may recall, was arguably the car that started this electric era, hitting the market ahead of the much-more-beloved Tesla Model S. The second version of the Leaf that came out in the mid-2010s was a pretty darn good hatchback, but one that lasted too long without an update and paled in comparison to the better models that came along this decade. Nissan as a company has been adrift the past several years, but it built a winner in the new Leaf 3.0, an attractive small crossover set to arrive in 2026.
Next year also should see heel-draggers Toyota and Subaru finally coming to market with winning EVs. The uninspired Toyota bZ4x/Subaru Solterra, which the two Japanese brands developed together, had been their only pure EVs. In 2026, however, Subaru is set to launch the Outback EV and Toyota the electrified version of the C-HR small crossover, putting all-electric power into some of their well-known gasoline nameplates.
Battery-powered adventure vehicles make up some of the most exciting EVs for 2026. Perhaps the most-anticipated arrival is the Rivian R2, poised to be not only the model that brings that brand to the masses, with its $45,000 starting price, but also serve as the launchpad for Rivan’s aspirations in autonomous driving and AI. It’ll face new competition in the form of the Jeep Recon, that iconic brand’s first all-electric SUV, and of the Range Rover Electric, which seeks to win back some of the drivers who ditched their Range Rovers for the Rivian R1.
The electric pickup market, by comparison, has gone cold. Rivian, which launched its all-electric company with a pickup trick, isn’t planning a truck version for the smaller R2 platform. Ford, amidst yet another upheaval in its EV plans, is killing the all-electric version of the F-150 Lightning and plans to produce a 700-mile extended range hybrid in its place (though it says plans for the mid-sized EV truck due in 2027 will go on).
The great truck hope for EVs in 2026 is the much-awaited launch of Slate, the truly compact electric truck backed by Jeff Bezos, among others. Slate’s pitch is affordability via personalization: The bare-bones, doesn’t-even-have-power-windows version is supposed to start in the mid-$20,000s, on par with the cheapest new gasoline cars you can buy in America. Buyers can spend as much as they want to add bells and whistles.
Of the new high-end EVs coming to America, the most compelling may be the BMW i3. The last car to bear that name was the little urban future cube the German automaker sold in decent numbers back in the 2010s, despite that older vehicle having just 150 miles of range. The new i3 is a fully realized electrified version of the best-selling BMW 3 Series, one of the icons of the auto industry.
Despite the arrival of new and affordable EVs, the industry still has a big affordability problem. Too many electric cars are still too expensive and not competitive price-wise with their gasoline counterparts. Meanwhile, Americans are getting fed up with out-of-control car prices.
A consequence of this, industry insiders say, could be that 2026 is the year of the used EV. Tons of electric cars that were leased under very favorable terms during the Biden years will be coming back to dealerships as those leases end, ready to become very affordable used cars. With batteries having markedly improved since the 2010s, those three-year-old electric cars should have decent driving ranges to go with their low sticker prices.
The other big question mark is the promise of the autonomous age. Tesla, still the EV market leader in America, hasn’t offered an entirely new one since the disastrous launch of the Cybertruck. This year, though, Elon Musk says he will start building Cybercab, the supposedly fully autonomous car that will never be driven by its human occupants. Maybe it will upend the entire automotive industry as drivers say goodbye to the act of driving. Or maybe, like most Tesla endeavors, it will come in behind schedule and not work quite as well as Musk promises.
On Google’s energy glow up, transmission progress, and South American oil
Current conditions: Nearly two dozen states from the Rockies through the Midwest and Appalachians are forecast to experience temperatures up to 30 degrees above historical averages on Christmas Day • Parts of northern New York and New England could get up to a foot of snow in the coming days • Bethlehem, the West Bank city south of Jerusalem in which Christians believe Jesus was born, is preparing for a sunny, cloudless Christmas Day, with temperatures around 60 degrees Fahrenheit.
This is our last Heatmap AM of 2025, but we’ll see you all again in 2026!
Just two weeks after a federal court overturned President Donald Trump’s Day One executive order banning new offshore wind permits, the administration announced a halt to all construction on seaward turbines. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum announced the move Monday morning on X: “Due to national security concerns identified by @DeptofWar, @Interior is PAUSING leases for 5 expensive, unreliable, heavily subsidized offshore wind farms!” As Heatmap’s Jael Holzman explained in her writeup, there are only five offshore wind projects currently under construction in U.S. waters: Vineyard Wind, Revolution Wind, Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind, Sunrise Wind, and Empire Wind. “The Department of War has come back conclusively that the issues related to these large offshore wind programs create radar interference, create genuine risk for the U.S., particularly related to where they are in proximity to our East Coast population centers,” Burgum told Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo.
The new blanket policy is likely to slow progress on passing the big bipartisan federal permitting reform bill. The SPEED Act (if you need an explainer, read this one from Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo) passed in the House last week. But key Senate Democrats said they would not champion a bill with provisions they might otherwise support unless the legislation curbed federal agencies’ power to yank already-granted permits, a move clearly meant to thwart Trump’s “total war on wind.” Republican leaders in the House stripped the measure out at the last moment. On Monday afternoon, the senators called the SPEED Act “dead in the water.”
The Department of the Interior and the Forest Service greenlit the 500-kilovolt Cross-Tie transmission project to carry electricity 217 miles between substations in Utah and Nevada. Dubbed the “missing pathway” between two states with fast-growing solar and geothermal industries, the power line had previously won support from a Biden-era program at the Department of Energy’s Grid Deployment Office. Last week, the federal agencies approved a right-of-way for a route that crosses the Humboldt-Toiyabe National Forest and public land controlled by the Interior Department’s Bureau of Land Management. In a press release directing the public to official documents, the bureau said the project “supports the administration’s priority to strengthen the reliability and security of the United States electric grid.”
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Google parent Alphabet bought the data center and energy infrastructure developer Intersect for nearly $5 billion in cash. Google had already held a minority stake in the company. But the deal, which also includes assuming debt, allows the tech behemoth to “expand capacity, operate more nimbly in building new power generation in lockstep with new data center load, and reimagine energy solutions to drive U.S. innovation and leadership,” Sundair Pichai, the chief executive of Alphabet and Google, said in a statement.
The acquisition comes as Google steps up its energy development, with deals to commercialize all kinds of nascent energy technologies, including next-generation nuclear reactors, fusion, and geothermal. The company, as Heatmap's Matthew Zeitlin noted this morning, has also hired a team of widely respected experts to advance its energy work, including the researcher Tyler Norris and and the Texas grid analyst Doug Lewin. But Monday’s deal wowed industry watchers. “Damn, big tech is now just straight up acquiring power developers to scale up data centers faster,” Aniruddh Mohan, an electricity analyst at The Brattle Group consultancy, remarked on X. In response, the researcher Isaac Orr joked: “Next they buy out the utilities themselves.”
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The long duration energy storage developer Hydrostor has won final approval from California regulators for a 500-megawatt advanced compressed air energy storage project capable of pumping out eight hours of continuous discharge to the grid. With the thumbs up from the California Energy Commission, the Willow Rock Energy Storage Center will be “shovel ready” next year. The technology works by using electricity from wind and solar to power a compressor that pushes air into an underground cavern, displacing water, then capturing the heat generated during the compression and storing the energy in the pressurized chamber. When the energy is discharged, the water pressure forces the air up, and the excess heat warms the expanding air, driving a turbine to generate electricity. The plant would be Hydrostor’s first facility in the U.S. The company has another “late-stage” development underway in Australia, and 7 gigawatts of projects in the pipeline worldwide.

The world is awash in oil and prices are on track to keep falling as rising supply outstrips demand. At just 0.8 million barrels per day, predictions for growth in 2026 are the lowest in the last four years. But Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina will account for at least half of the expected global increase in production of crude. In its latest forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the three South American nations will account for 0.4 million barrels per day of the 0.8 million spike projected for 2026. The three countries — oddly enough one of the only potential trios on the mostly Spanish-speaking continent with three distinct languages, given Brazil’s Portuguese and Guyana’s English — comprised 28% of all global growth in 2025.
A fungal blight that gets worse as temperatures rise is killing conifers, including Christmas trees. But scientists at Mississippi State University have discovered a unique Leyland cypress tree at a Louisiana farm with a resistance to Passalora sequoia, the fast-spreading disease that attacks the needles of evergreens. In a statement, Jeff Wilson, an associate professor of ornamental horticulture at Mississippi State University, said that, prior to the study, “there had not been any research on Christmas trees in Mississippi since the late ‘70s or early ‘80s, but there is a real need for the research today.” May all your endeavors in the new year be as curious, civic-minded, and fruitful as that. Wishing you all a merry Christmas, happy New Year, and what I hope is a restful time off until we return to your inbox in January.