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On offshore wind wins, China’s ‘strong energy nation,’ and Japan’s deep-sea mining
The Central American country is the now the Americas’ EV leader.
Rob talks with McMaster University engineering professor Greig Mordue, then checks in with Heatmap contributor Andrew Moseman on the EVs to watch out for.
It’s been a huge few weeks for the electric vehicle industry — at least in North America.
After a major trade deal, Canada is set to import tens of thousands of new electric vehicles from China every year, and it could soon invite a Chinese automaker to build a domestic factory. General Motors has also already killed the Chevrolet Bolt, one of the most anticipated EV releases of 2026.
How big a deal is the China-Canada EV trade deal, really? Will we see BYD and Xiaomi cars in Toronto and Vancouver (and Detroit and Seattle) any time soon — or is the trade deal better for Western brands like Volkswagen or Tesla which have Chinese factories but a Canadian presence? On this week’s Shift Key, Rob talks to Greig Mordue, a former Toyota executive who is now an engineering professor at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario, about how the deal could shake out. Then he chats with Heatmap contributor Andrew Moseman about why the Bolt died — and the most exciting EVs we could see in 2026 anyway.
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University. Jesse is off this week.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: Over the weekend there was a new tariff threat from President Trump — he seems to like to do this on Saturday when there are no futures markets open — a new tariff threat on Canada. It is kind of interesting because he initially said that he thought if Canada could make a deal with China, they should, and he thought that was good. Then over the weekend, he said that it was actually bad that Canada had made some free trade, quote-unquote, deal with China.
Do you think that these tariff threats will affect any Carney actions going forward? Is this already priced in, slash is this exactly why Carney has reached out to China in the first place?
Greig Mordue: I think it all comes under the headline of “deep sigh,” and we’ll see where this goes. But for the first 12 months of the U.S. administration, and the threat of tariffs, and the pullback, and the new threat, and this going forward, the public policy or industrial policy response from the government of Canada and the province of Ontario, where automobiles are built in this country, was to tread lightly. And tread lightly, generally means do nothing, and by doing nothing stop the challenges.
And so doing nothing led to Stellantis shutting down an assembly plant in Brampton, Ontario; General Motors shutting an assembly plant in Ingersoll, Ontario; General Motors reducing a three-shift operation in Oshawa, Ontario to two shifts; and Ford ragging the puck — Canadian term — on the launch of a new product in their Oakville, Ontario plant. So doing nothing didn’t really help Canada from a public policy perspective.
So they’re moving forward on two fronts: One is the resetting of relationships with China and the hope of some production from Chinese manufacturers. And two, the promise of automotive industrial policy in February, or at some point this spring. So we’ll see where that goes — and that may cause some more restless nights from the U.S. administration. We’ll see.
Mentioned:
Canada’s new "strategic partnership” with China
The Chevy Bolt Is Already Dead. Again.
The EVs Everyone Will Be Talking About in 2026
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
Heatmap Pro brings all of our research, reporting, and insights down to the local level. The software platform tracks all local opposition to clean energy and data centers, forecasts community sentiment, and guides data-driven engagement campaigns. Book a demo today to see the premier intelligence platform for project permitting and community engagement.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
2017 – 2023 ... and also 2027.
We knew the revived Chevrolet Bolt might have a limited run. Nobody knew it would be this limited.
General Motors began manufacturing the updated version of its small electric car late last year to begin deliveries this month. Already the news of its potential demise is here. GM says the Kansas factory that’s churning out Bolts will be repurposed to make combustion cars, including a Buick, of all things. Now, just as the arrival of the sub-$30,000 Bolt heralded a new age of more affordable electric cars, Chevy is dropping out of the race and putting its beloved little electric car on the backburner. Again.
The culprits in this case are clear. With the federal tax credit for buying EVs dead and gone, and with weakened emissions rules removing the incentive for car companies to pursue an aggressive electrification strategy, automakers are running back to the familiar embrace of fossil fuels. GM has already said it expects to lose billions as it adjusts its business strategy, curbing its EV push to meet the new reality under President Trump, where gas-burning cars remain much more profitable to build and sell.
The Bolt’s fate is the immediate fallout from that move. The Buick Envision, part of America’s army of indistinguishable gas-powered crossovers, had been built at a GM plant in China. Trump’s tariffs, however, incentivized the company to move production back to the U.S. The fact that GM repatriated the Envision at the expense of the Bolt tells you what you need to know about this moment in the U.S. auto market.
GM never promised that the Bolt would be back for good, and its return to limbo is par for the course when it comes to this plucky little car. The original Bolt EV had its problems, including a battery recall and glacial charging speeds by today’s standards. But the Bolt established GM’s place in the new EV age and found a flock of fans. At the time it was discontinued in 2023, it was the top-selling non-Tesla EV in America, selling more than 60,000 cars that year.
Fans clamored to get the car back. GM listened, and built a new version on the Ultium platform that forms the basis of its current generation of EVs. When I attended Chevy’s big reveal party for the new Bolt last year, it handed out merch reading “back by popular demand.” Yet GM always referred to the vehicle’s revival as a special run, as if not to get anyone’s hopes up that the Bolt would become a mainstay in the Chevy lineup.
Things could have been different, of course. GM has hinted at the possibility of expanding upon the Bolt with more models if the car succeeded in helping the company win the affordable EV race. Instead, the Kansas factory will turn back to combustion next year as Chevy builds some gas-powered Equinox SUVs there, moving production from Mexico after getting hammered by new tariffs. The Buick Envision, which GM has been making in China for nearly a decade, will begin Kansas production in 2028.
The Bolt’s second sudden death is a big blow to American EV lovers. Without a $7,500 tax break for buying an electric vehicle, Americans badly need more affordable options. Bolt, which starts around $29,000 in its most basic form, was set to lead a pack that would include other 2026 arrivals such as the customizable, Jeff Bezos-backed Slate truck and the reimagined third-generation Nissan Leaf. Now, you’d better act fast if you want to get behind the wheel of a Bolt.
