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Scoop: Clearway Cancels Plan to Swap Solar Farm for Data Center and Gas Plant
The energy developer is backing off after a Heatmap report.
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The energy developer is backing off after a Heatmap report.
On ‘draconian’ water cuts, Tesla’s China business, and Italian nuclear
Rob talks with two senior Democrats about the future of energy in the U.S.
Rob talks with two senior Democrats about the future of energy in the U.S.
The automaker had a decent second quarter, but projects its best-ever year-end performance, as we wrap up a busy week in the energy economy.
A conversation with Peter Gardett of Noreva
This week’s conversation is with Peter Gardett, CEO of the AI-powered energy market research firm Noreva. Before helming the price and deal research consultancy, Gardett built a strong repertoire as an energy expert spearheading analysis at S&P Global, IHS Markit, and Argus Media. I reached out to Gardett because I wanted a candid conversation about the fuel choices data center companies are making under the Trump administration and, to my delight, Gardett was open to sitting in my hot seat.
Let’s get into it then. The following conversation was lightly edited for clarity.
How is the Trump 2.0 era affecting the choices data center developers are making when it comes to powering with gas versus alternative sources like renewable energy or nuclear power?
Well I think the question you’re asking is about natural gas, and what I tell people is every private equity firm has a behind-the-meter 1 gigawatt natural gas project they’d like to move forward. They’re familiar with the economics. They like the regulatory fortune for that fuel right now. They look at the futures curve and think the prices will be stable for this fuel in the future, I would argue discounting some of the likely volatility drivers that exist.
There’s clearly a rush to island yourself with your natural gas supply and let the rest of the world do what it might, if you’re a large hyperscaler.
If you look at the Meta facility in Louisiana – Hyperion – that’s a good example, or the X facility Colossus. The first mega data centers become the blueprints everyone would like to follow.
You brought up the regulatory appetite for gas infrastructure. How much of this rush to build gas from the industry side is due to federal policy changes?
Quite a bit. There have been major changes to implementation of the Clean Water Act that provably have been part of what’s enabled large construction of data centers and the accompanying power. It’s the same kind of shifts in oversight, when it comes to the Clean Water Act. We saw a proposal from the EPA to allow states to implement some parts of the Clean Air Act, which would certainly make it easier for them to build large gas generation that accompanies a large load.
It’s part of an entire emerging trend I theorize as “the great data center migration.” You have everyone moving down to the AI band, to West Texas to Georgia – that strip of states is where large data centers are moving and where the power will follow.
With respect to the renewable side of things, the nuclear side, alternative fuel choices than gas – are they benefiting from this buildout?
Yeah, I mean, we’re in a strange moment for renewables.
There’s been a rush to get things online before the July 4 tax cliff. If you look at additions to the grid, solar and batteries have benefited from this condensing of the pipeline and moving forward of the pipeline to avoid the cliff. We’ve seen a lot of buildouts and a lot of those electrons have gone to data centers. I’m doing a PPA project for a client right now that shows PPA prices having tripled in some regions, and that’s for renewables – solar and wind. You see plenty of demand. If you can get your hands on an electron you’re going to pay for it and go ahead. You don’t mind what kind of electron it is.
That being said, there’s a requirement for a capacity factor to create reliability. Where you’re looking to do behind-the-meter stuff and you feel you’ll be unable to interconnect, or you want to build your own power supply… that does have a unique match to natural gas. All you’re going to need is pipe and available fueling capacity. If you can find the fuel and if you can place yourself over a gas system that’s underutilized, a lot of your other concerns go away. You have access to a power source with a very high capacity factor, is reliable, and matches to your load. The equivalent of solar would require a vast amount of land, changing the economics of a project.
Before the start of this federal regime in the U.S., the trendline was investment going towards green capital – zero-emission generation. Obviously things have changed. From your vantage point in the market, when it comes to where investors are putting their money, has it gone from green power to data centers specifically? Is this boom a redirection, taking their money and putting it into something else?
This is not a trade-off moment. It’s an expansion moment.
We’ve seen a Venn diagram between digital infrastructure and power infrastructure. They move directly over each other, overlapping in capital markets. This is understandable; it’s the one thing you can’t do without if you have a data center. If you want chips, you also need power. And I think people underestimate how much one gigawatt of power is.
There’s a rush to build anything. It’s about more than anything else. I do think the second half of 2026 will be an interesting test of a thesis that a lot of renewables people have been talking about, which is that the low cost of energy – the LCOE factors – is still favorable and even without tax credit support there will be a lot of further additions. We’ve seen models, and we’ve done models, that have renewables as kind of an air pocket because it’s so cheap and the fuel cost. But on the other hand you can make the argument there’ll be a bigger problem.
When it comes to the investor space, how seriously do folks take opposition to data centers as a medium and long term risk – not just the next few weeks but the coming elections?
Very seriously. What you see in PJM with demand destruction is being taken very seriously by a number of the large institutional asset managers, some of the large institutional asset managers. These are people who are my biggest clients. I’m under some confidentiality when it comes to talking about them but nonetheless I can tell you that there are several large projects in PJM that are announced and appear on paper to be fully financed that are actually in cold storage until there is a better understanding of what is going to happen with large load, in PJM and Pennsylvania in particular.
There are large energy projects that are waiting around to see if the demand is going to materialize?
Exactly.
It doesn’t sound like an easy place to be if you’re developing these assets, no?
No.
If you’ve done the work and seen the models, it's very difficult to get this capital running in one direction and have an ISO operator say it's too expensive or puts too much on ratepayers. What you’ve seen folks try to do is create a secondary market, a parallel market, in which price discovery for that kind of power – large load – where it won’t filter through to ratepayers. But that’s much more difficult to pull off. The complexity of operating a grid in that way.
This is why more people are turning to behind the meter and to gas.
On Trump’s inverter ban, American antimony, and thermal batteries
Current conditions: The unusual humidity thickening the Los Angeles air this week is the result of a warmer Pacific Ocean, a sign of climate change • Temperatures are topping triple digits Fahrenheit in the Spanish capital of Madrid • Severe storms are pummeling the central United States from the Plains to Appalachia.
The latest heat wave roasting Europe is warming up rivers and drying the watercourses on which the continent’s energy systems rely. In Eastern Europe, the mighty Danube has hit record lows, beaching boats in Croatia, squeezing out a quarter of Serbia’s fuel shipments, and forcing Hungary’s only nuclear power station to shut down as cooling water disappeared. The cost of navigating the barges that ship petroleum products, chemicals, coal, and steel down the Rhine river skyrocketed 400% in the last two months as water levels plummeted, as Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas pointed out. Economists warned the German broadcaster DW this week that the Rhine’s low levels could slash as much as 0.2% off Germany’s entire economic output in the third quarter of this year. It’s a stark reminder of what Heatmap contributor Hazel Southwell wrote back in 2023: Economies aren’t ready for rivers to dry up.
The wildfires blazing across the continent aren’t isolated to the mainland. A fire raging in eastern England forced dozens of evacuations and put the Sizewell B nuclear plant, which just won approval to extend its license this month, on emergency alert.
As quickly as public opinion over data centers is plummeting, local ordinances barring or limiting construction of new facilities are proliferating. More than 530 such statutes are now in place all over the country, and the vast majority were enacted this year, according to an extensive review of public records conducted by Heatmap Pro that my colleague Robinson Meyer wrote up. These restrictions are driving a wave of project cancellations.
Meanwhile, Anthropic is in what The Wall Street Journal described as “advanced talks” with banks to borrow $15 billion to build a sweeping new data center and power-generating complex. The deal would be backed by a consortium of banks led by Morgan Stanley and would back the project in Hubbard, Texas, which would include a 1.6-gigawatt natural gas power plant. To raise the debt, Google has provided guarantees for billions of dollars of the Claude maker’s lease and obligations to pay for electricity.
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The Federal Communications Commission’s ban on imported inverters, the devices that help patch solar panels into data centers and onto the grid, will have little effect on the buildout of panels in the U.S., according to the latest assessment from the consultancy BloombergNEF. “Previously approved inverter models can still be imported and sold, so most planned projects are expected to proceed without supply shortages,” the consultancy told me in an emailed memo. U.S. factories cannot meet demand on their own, matching only 18% of the American market in 2025. “The biggest risk is delayed access to newer technology,” the memo read. “New inverter models will require conditional approval from the government, but approval processes remain unclear.”
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The U.S. needs antimony to make ammunition, semiconductors, and batteries. But the country stopped mining the lustrous gray metalloid back in 1983. Since then, China has dominated the global market, with Russia trailing in second place and Tajikistan in a steady third, according to the latest U.S. Geological Survey data. Now America is getting back into the antimony game. On Thursday, the U.S. unveiled a new modular mineral processing plant designed to establish a new end-to-end domestic supply chain for antimony, Mining.com reported. The project is supported by the mining company Perpetua Resources, the U.S. Army, and the Idaho National Laboratory. Backed by billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson, Perpetua was designated last year by the Trump administration for a fast-track permitting program. In May, the federal Export-Import Bank gave the project a $2.9 billion loan.
It’s a good time for energy startups. Fresh off Commonwealth Fusion Systems’ $1 billion round yesterday, Antora Energy, the thermal battery startup that converts electricity into heat with large carbon blocks, just netted $550 million in a Series C. Meant to help the company ramp up production, the funding round comes after the company launched one of the largest battery storage projects in the world, a 5-gigawatt-hour system in South Dakota that was built in less than a year. “From factories to data centers, energy is the bottleneck to industrial growth,” Andrew Ponec, Antora’s co-founder and chief executive, said in a statement. “Antora has shown we can help break that bottleneck — delivering energy fast, at massive scale, with American innovation. With this funding round, we’re continuing to strengthen our investment in U.S. manufacturing, delivering affordable energy across the country and around the world.”
Mexico is getting ready to do something about the algae. This week, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said her government will create a comprehensive plan to free the country from a vast bloom of sargassum. While not dangerous to humans, the seaweed can rot on shore and emit foul odors.