Energy
Why This Gas Crisis Isn’t Hitting Like 1979
$4 of gasoline will actually get you pretty far these days.
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$4 of gasoline will actually get you pretty far these days.
On China’s fossil fuel controls, Maine data centers, and a faster NRC
On offshore mining, New Jersey’s offshore wind, and China’s oil breakthrough
Co-founder Mateo Jaramillo described how the startup’s iron-air battery could help address the data center boom — and the energy transition
At San Francisco Climate Week, John Reynolds discussed how the state is juggling wildfire prevention, climate goals, and more.
The state has terminated an agreement to develop substations and other necessary grid infrastructure to serve the now-canceled developments.
On Chinese solar exports, Blue Energy’s nuclear reactors, and GE Vernova stock
Current conditions: Wildfires are raging across the Southeast, with more than 27,000 acres alight in southern Georgia alone • At least two separate blazes have also broken out in Japan’s northeastern Iwate prefecture • A late blizzard is dumping as much as 20 inches of snow on northern Manitoba, Canada.
Yet another French energy giant is lining up for a payout from the Trump administration to abandon its offshore wind projects in the United States. Utility giant Engie is in talks with the federal government about a “possible refund” for its U.S. offshore wind leases as President Donald Trump looks to halt expansion of an energy source that’s quickly growing in Europe and Asia. Since Trump returned to office last year, the company has paused development on three offshore wind projects and already took a loss on its joint venture Ocean Winds. In an interview with Reuters, Engie CEO Catherine MacGregor confirmed that the utility was pursuing the kind of deal that French oil and gas giant TotalEnergies negotiated in recent weeks. “We’ll see about these terms. An agreement is possible depending on the discussions.” She noted that she wasn’t against offshore wind. “Economically and also in terms of public acceptance, I strongly believe in offshore wind power. Of course, you have to plan the projects well, you have to involve the fishermen,” she added. Still, “new offshore wind projects are going to be complicated regardless of the administration.”
The $1 billion TotalEnergies deal may also stand on shaky ground. As Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo reported in back-to-back scoops, documents suggest the Trump administration’s legal argument for drawing on a federal settlement fund rests on shaky ground. Other documents show that TotalEnergies isn't required to make any new investments in U.S. oil and gas under the agreement, contrary to what Trump officials said about the deal.

Long accused of maintaining an overcapacity of factories to churn out solar panels, China’s photovoltaic output is now in soaring demand as the world scrambles to cope with the energy shock brought on by the Iran War’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. New data from the think tank Ember shows that China’s solar exports reached a record 68 gigawatts in March, double the previous month. When Ember analyzed the Chinese customs authority data, its researchers found that the exports are equivalent to Spain’s entire solar capacity, surpassing the previous record set in August 2025 by 49%. At least 50 countries — you read that right — set all-time records for Chinese solar imports in March, with another 60 seeing the highest levels in six months. Compared to February numbers (the war began on February 28), Chinese solar exports grew by 141% to India, 384% to Malaysia, 391% to Ethiopia, and 519% to Nigeria.
“Fossil shocks are boosting the solar surge,” Euan Graham, senior analyst at Ember, said in a statement. “Solar has already become the engine of the global economy, and now the current fossil fuel price shocks are taking it up a gear. Countries are importing solar panels at record levels, and building up their own domestic assembly and manufacturing capabilities to address surging global demand.”
Elon Musk is betting even bigger on artificial intelligence. Tesla plans to boost spending to $25 billion this year as the electric automaker cum battery and solar giant invests in self-driving taxis, zero-emissions trucks, robots, and a sweeping new chip factory to power its AI ambitions. During a call with investors on Thursday, Musk said there would be a “very significant increase in capital expenditure” this year, which “will be well justified considering substantially increased revenue streams,” according to the Financial Times. The forecast is nearly triple the $8.5 billion Tesla spent last year.
The shift comes as the U.S. faces what Heatmap contributor Andrew Moseman called the “great American EV contraction” that took place after the Trump administration ended federal tax credits for electric vehicles last fall.
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In a nuclear industry filled with startups promising to reinvent the reactor, Blue Energy stands out as a company promising instead to transform how good old-fashioned light water reactors are built. The firm wants to prefabricate its small modular reactors in a factory, making each one as uniform and replicable as possible. “For the first time, a nuclear project is designed so that it doesn’t need to rely primarily on taxpayer dollars and ratepayers to backstop risk,” Jake Jurewicz, Blue Energy chief executive and co-founder, told S&P Global. In a press release, Jurewicz called its forthcoming debut facility, a 1.5-gigawatt complex in Texas, “the first project-financeable nuclear plant.”
Shares in GE Vernova spiked 14% on Wednesday after the energy industrial giant reported surging demand for its gas turbines and nuclear reactors to power the AI boom in its latest quarterly earnings. As I told you yesterday, GE Vernova’s head of government affairs and policy, Roger Martella, said this week that the project to build North America’s first small modular reactor at Ontario Power Generation’s Darlington plant was on track to produce power by 2030. In a note to investors, the investment bank Jeffries said soaring gas demand and “green-shoots for nuclear” sent the price upward.
If online gambling services like Kalshi and Polymarket allow people to bet on something, do the incentives for the worse outcome change? Turns out, obviously, the answer is yes. Just consider this example. Polymarket allowed people to bet on daily temperatures from some official weather stations. Now Météo-France, the official French meteorological agency, is accusing someone of using an artificial heat source to manipulate reads at a station and win bets.
Rob dives into Fervo’s S-1 filing with Princeton professor Jesse Jenkins and Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin.
Fervo Energy has become a darling of the clean energy industry by using workers and technology from the oil and gas sector to unlock zero-carbon, all-day geothermal electricity. Last week, Fervo filed to go public, giving us the first deep look at its finances and long-term expansion plans. What’s the bull case, the bear case, and the fine print?
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob is joined by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, as well as Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin to discuss the big news from Fervo’s new filing. Why are people so excited about Fervo? What are the biggest financial questions in its growth plans? And why does it need to go public now?
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.
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Here is an excerpt of their conversation:
Robinson Meyer: Jesse, one of the things that people are most excited about with Fervo — and one of the things, frankly, that you got me excited about with regard to Fervo and other enhanced geothermal companies — is that this is dispatchable power. It’s not only that it’s 24-7, but much like like we currently flex gas plants up or down to meet demand on the grid, we might be able to flex geothermal plants up and down. Can you just describe like how that would work and why it’s important to kind of overall value of this energy technology?
Jesse Jenkins: Yeah, so most people think of geothermal as a kind of zero marginal cost resource. It has no fuel cost, right? It’s producing power that’s on the margin, basically free. And so it would make sense to operate it like a “baseload resource” running 24-7, because why would you ever turn off?
The reality is that if you are deploying geothermal in a world with lots of cheap solar, for example, or wind in other parts of the West, there are many hours when power is literally worthless or very inexpensive, right? You’ve got wind and solar flooding the market at also zero marginal cost. And so producing power in those hours, you can do it, but why would you? It’s not valuable. When it’s valuable is the times when the sun is setting and the wind is dying down and you would otherwise have to fire up gas power plants.
So one of the cool things about enhanced geothermal is that you’re basically engineering a fracture network inside a very impermeable rock, right? You basically have a container around it of granite. And that means that very little fluid or pressure will leak out of the reservoir if you inject more fluid into it. And so you’ve basically built yourself a pumped hydrate reservoir underground for free, because that’s what you needed to create your heat exchanger to get the heat out for your power plant.
You can find a full transcript of the episode here.
Mentioned:
From Heatmap: 8 Things We Learned From Fervo’s IPO Filing
Jesse’s report on how to scale geothermal nationwide through experience-induced cost reductions
Jesse’s report on how geothermal can be a flexible resource, like natural gas
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.