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Shift Key Classic: What Is a Watt?
Rob goes back to school with Princeton University’s Jesse Jenkins on the basics of energy and power.
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Rob goes back to school with Princeton University’s Jesse Jenkins on the basics of energy and power.
Here are the major dates on the climate and energy calendar.
The August Electricity Price Hub data is in.
A new policy proposal argues that large load tariffs on their own aren’t enough.
On California’s stalled reforms, space solar, and VPPs
Current conditions: Tropical Storm Edouard is making landfall over Texas and Louisiana, bringing flooding as it moves inland • Already facing a southwest monsoon, or habagat, the Philippines is now staring down Tropical Storm Pilandok • Intensifying flooding in South Sudan’s Sudd, the largest wetlands in Africa, is displacing families by the droves.
Oil prices surged north of $90 per barrel Tuesday as the United States exchanged fire with Iran amid the ongoing fight to control the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, rose nearly 2% to $91.74 per barrel. Europe’s Brent crude measure closed less than 2% higher at just below $97. Murban crude, the yardstick for oil out of Abu Dhabi, soared nearly 8% to over $106 per barrel. In a post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump said he was “not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table.” Rather, “I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement,” he continued. “I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing.” Referring to the U.S. military as the “American terrorists,” the Tasnim News Agency, a semi-official outlet associated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported that Tehran “had previously warned and promised” that “the Iranian armed forces will respond decisively and extensively to any aggression against our country’s territory and interests.”
Meanwhile, the Group of 20 — the club of 18 rich economies, plus the European Union and African Union — concluded its latest meeting with a joint statement that affirmed the necessity of central bank independence, called out energy affordability in the age of AI, and admonished “non-market economies” with “excessive and persistent external surpluses” that distort the global market. China didn't like that, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC, issuing a dissent.
If the sun were blasting onto all the solar panels in China all at once, the overall electricity output would top that of every one of the country’s coal plants firing at the same time. It’s a major milestone, Bloomberg reported, highlighting just how extensively Beijing has glazed its fields, foothills, and urban rooftops with photovoltaic panels in recent years. But the achievement comes with an asterisk. “No matter how you feel about solar or coal as an energy source, CAPACITY is not ENERGY,” energy analyst Nicholas Birkhead wrote in a post on X. “These solar capacity numbers way overstate the energy mix, which is what matters! I really wish we’d all just publish capacity numbers after they’re adjusted for capacity factor.” In other words: As significant as this seems, China is still burning a whole lot of coal more frequently than the midday sun is shining.
Last year, upward of $440 billion flowed into solar worldwide, while $540 billion went to upstream oil drilling. It’s a sign, according to a new report from McKinsey, that “markets are financing both fossil fuels and low-carbon energy simultaneously” and that “the system is not replacing one fuel type with another but rather building them in parallel.” Moving forward, the consultancy cautioned, policymakers and planners need to assess not just the cheapest available options for new generation but what best supports the performance of the entire energy system. Just look at what Ontario did when deciding to move forward with what’s expected to be North America’s first small modular reactors. Instead of looking at the upfront cost of the generating assets alone, the province-owned Ontario Power Generation considered the whole cost of transmission and backup generation that would have come in the fine print of choosing wind turbines over nuclear reactors. The example, as my colleague Matthew Zeitlin wrote, highlights the problems with levelized cost of energy, the widely used measure of the overnight costs of building new generation assets: “Everyone’s favorite energy metric is wrong.”
A long-awaited California bill covering state policy on wildfires, insurance, and utilities collapsed in the state legislature Tuesday. The proposal, called Senate Bill 492, had been the product of intense negotiations between legislative leaders and Governor Gavin Newsom. The deal was released on Saturday and included provisions to speed up payouts to victims of fires and nibbled around the edges of the vast payouts California utilities are forced to make to insurers when their equipment sparks a blaze. The legislators fractured because it failed to address the core issue of California’s strict rules around wildfire liability and insurance, where insurers can sue utilities to recover damages when, for example, a transformer or power line ignites dried brush. Instead, the deal would have tweaked the system, making it harder for insurers to sell claims to investors, pushing out payouts to victims faster, and limiting utility executive bonuses when their companies’ equipment causes a fire. These payouts can drag utilities into bankruptcy, as happened with Pacific Gas & Electric in 2019 following a series of wildfires, and end up elevating electricity rates. “The only solution is to return to fix the entire problem, not part of it,” Newsom said in a statement to Politico.
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Fervo Energy’s stock soared nearly 30% on Tuesday after the next-generation geothermal giant announced its biggest deal yet, to sell nearly 400 megawatts of electricity to Google. When Fervo starts up its Cape Station project in southwestern Utah sometime in 2028, the facility will become the world’s largest enhanced geothermal plant. In enhanced geothermal plants, the underground heat harnessed for power production comes from artificial wells drilled with fracking technology rather than naturally forming subterranean reservoirs of hot water. If Houston-based Fervo can bring down the cost of its drilling, the technology could enable construction of geothermal power stations in vastly more locations than the industry previously believed possible. “Even though right now we don’t have clarity yet on how this will serve a data center … we know that it will be a foundational building block of power generation for a data center presence in Utah,” Lucia Tian, Google’s director of advanced energy technologies, told The Wall Street Journal, which broke news of the deal.
Next-generation nuclear startups, meanwhile, are facing a looming challenge over plutonium. The material, which doesn’t occur naturally, was largely produced in the 20th century for weapons production. Now, however, developers of novel kinds of reactors are angling to use some of the world’s 571 metric tons of stockpiled plutonium for energy production. In a feature on the topic published this week, the Financial Times outlined the split between countries such as the U.S., which I told you in May was giving out plutonium to startups, and the United Kingdom, which opted to bury its material. “It’s like a car that runs on diamonds. Plutonium reserves are about the same size as diamonds around the world, which gives you an idea of how rare this precious element is,” a French official told the newspaper.

The Department of Energy is pumping $12 million into developing and manufacturing technology for solar panels that can be used in space. In keeping with the Trump administration’s skeptical position on the weather limits of wind and solar, the agency pointed out that, “unlike terrestrial solar energy systems, which are subject to regulate interruption by weather and the Earth’s rotation, space PV can deliver near-constant power.” The funding is aimed at projects that will enhance the durability and cost of solar cells for space and develop manufacturing methods that can provide “innovative, high-volume” processes for mass production. “The next frontier for solar PV power generation is in space,” Audrey Robertson, the assistant secretary of energy, said in a statement. “As demand for space-grade PV skyrockets, this investment will establish American leadership in next-generation, space-based PV, bolster our national security, and enhance our economic competitiveness.”
Investors are putting big G’s behind VPPs. Virtual power plants promise to ease stress on grids and direct power that might otherwise have been wasted toward all the new demand coming online. Amid the scramble to supply power to data centers, money is flowing into companies that can harness those distributed assets. On Tuesday, the VPP software maker Light announced a $46 million Series A. That same day, the British distributed energy giant Octopus Energy closed its deal to buy a majority stake in the VPP provider Uplight.
Rob talks with Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo about how the data center boom is changing our emissions trajectory.
The United States is staring down a natural gas buildout of gigantic proportions.
Amazon wants to build what would be the country’s largest power plant in Texas — and run it entirely on natural gas. Not to be outdone, OpenAI is plotting an even larger power plant in Ohio that, if built, would become the world’s largest gas power facility. How should we think about this boom — and about the AI and technology companies behind it, who remain some of the world’s biggest buyers of clean energy?
On this episode of Shift Key, Rob is joined by Emily Pontecorvo, a Heatmap founding staff writer. They discuss what Emily learned identifying the country’s 10 biggest gas projects, what surprised her most, and what this means for the country’s climate trajectory — and Big Tech’s corporate net-zero goals.
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.
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Here is an excerpt from their conversation:
Robinson Meyer: Can we talk a little bit about , why are companies building gas? Clean energy advocates talk a lot about how wind and solar — especially solar and batteries — are the cheapest source of electricity. I would say, when you talk to electricity traders, too, like when you talk to people in the market every day, they also talk about how cheap solar is. So why are companies building gas and not solar to service these facilities?
Emily Pontecorvo: So there’s a lot of different reasons that are all kind of coming together. Maybe the biggest one of all are the bottlenecks to connecting to the grid, the transmission bottlenecks. And that’s really pushing a lot of these companies to look for off-grid solutions.
Meyer: And specifically, just to play that out, because they cannot site enough acreage of solar on the site where they would put a data center to generate the power they need, which means they need a grid hookup. But if they need to generate their own power on their own acreage, then you need an extremely energy-dense form of generation, and that means you go to gas.
Pontecorvo: Right, right. And then I think that’s coming together with a bunch of political factors, like the Trump administration has a strong interest in pushing natural gas. They have gotten rid of the tax credits for clean energy. They’ve made renewable energy, wind and solar, really hard to build with all of these permitting freezes and permitting obstacles for renewables.
I think another element is just the extreme speed and urgency that AI companies are expanding at and demanding power at, which I guess kind of circles back to the interconnection issue and just not wanting to wait to be connected to the grid. And then the last one that I think is important is this issue with affordability in data centers, where people are really worried about the buildout increasing their energy bills. And a lot of data center developers are pushing this idea that by bringing their own generation, by building these gas power plants onsite, not connecting to the grid, they’re kind of putting their project in a box and ensuring that it doesn’t have any impact on regular ratepayers.
Meyer: It’s interesting to me — the Ratepayer Protection Pledge from Trump pledges that data centers won’t make electricity rates go up. And the solution to this for a lot of these companies, as you were saying, when they look at the set of constraints that they’re working within that include acreage, cost, regulation, local grid interconnection capacity, speed to power — they solve this set of constraints by going with gas. And I mean, I think there’s a few interesting aspects about it.
First of all, it’s not clear to me that it makes data centers any more popular. We recently did polling that made a lot of news that found that 75% of Americans, at this point, would oppose the data center being built near where they live. I’m not convinced that adding a fossil fuel power plant to a proposed data center project makes it any more popular because it’s taking a quasi-industrial site and turning it into a full-on industrial site. But that being said, one of the promises made by adding gas generation at the data center is that by generating your own electricity, you’re not increasing local demand for electricity and therefore not increasing anyone’s rates.
You can find a full transcript of the episode here.
Mentioned:
The U.S. Is Building Natural Gas Power Twice as Fast as China
Emily on Amazon’s Gigawatt Ranch
Rob on OpenAI and the PORTS-Pike Technology Campus
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...
Verse's software platform Aria helps data centers connect to the grid faster and optimize power operations in real time. Learn more at verse.inc.
RE+ 26 is the largest clean energy event in North America, happening November 16th through 19th at the Las Vegas Convention Center. Register at re-plus.com and use code SHIFTKEY20 to save 20% off a Full Conference pass.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.