Politics
The Climate Election You Missed Last Night
While you were watching Florida and Wisconsin, voters in Naperville, Illinois were showing up to fight coal.
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While you were watching Florida and Wisconsin, voters in Naperville, Illinois were showing up to fight coal.
These are the 10 most important clean energy transition projects struggling to get off the ground
On trade turbulence, special election results, and HHS cuts
Rob and Jesse catch up on the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund with former White House official Kristina Costa.
That trust was hard won — and it won’t be easily regained.
On critical minerals, Tesla’s home battery business, and India’s heat wave
Tristan Abbey would come to Washington from a Texas think tank that argues peak oil is way off base.
Donald Trump’s pick to run the Energy Information Administration works for a think tank that denies the existence of an energy transition.
The Energy Information Administration is the nation’s primary energy fuel and power forecasting agency. Since its inception in 1977, EIA has become a go-to source of data for many U.S. businesses, analysts, and policymakers alike. The agency’s previous administrators have been relatively apolitical academics and industry experts, including under the first Trump administration, whose EIA administrator came to the role from a faculty position at Rice University. The office’s current acting administrator is Stephen Nalley, who was appointed deputy administrator by Trump in 2018 after serving in various other roles at the agency.
Last month, however, the president quietly nominated a new EIA administrator who may represent a new direction for the agency. Tristan Abbey is an energy consultant and a senior fellow with the National Center for Energy Analytics, a think tank founded last year by a conservative policy outfit, the Texas Public Policy Foundation. The group argues against the concept of “peak oil,” the notion that the world will one day hit a maximum level of oil demand as it transitions to other (presumably more climate-friendly) fuels.
“There has never been a more critical time for sober-minded, fact-based, emotion-free perspectives in energy domains,” the think tank proudly declares on its About webpage. “The U.S. and European governments, along with many U.S. states, are embarking on the biggest industrial spending program in history, all directed in the pursuit of an ‘energy transition’ with the goal to rapidly replace hydrocarbons that currently supply 80% of the world’s energy. Why are the stakes so high? ‘Transitions’ of such scale have never occurred. And energy is fundamental to everything in civilization.”
Abbey was previously director of energy and environment at the National Security Council from 2017 to 2019 under Trump 1.0, and was also chief economist for the GOP on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, boasting in a CV that his role included successfully repealing a federal oil export ban. Per that CV, he previously worked for Clarium Capital Management and Founders Fund, two hedge funds founded by GOP financier Peter Thiel. Abbey was also on the Trump 1.0 transition team, according to his LinkedIn.
Today, Abbey also works with the Energy Policy Research Foundation, a D.C. petroleum research organization, and recently stepped away from working at the Trump-affiliated America First Policy Institute, according to an ethics disclosure posted online.
Abbey’s work at the NCEA provides insight into the views he may bring to the top of EIA.
His biggest achievement at the think tank was authoring a report declaring that global gas demand will remain strong. “[T]he broad directional arrows are distinguishable: for the foreseeable future, the world will need far more electricity and more industrial energy, and a significant portion of that will require natural gas,” the report said. “The federal government never decided to become the world’s largest LNG exporter, but it did allow private companies to make that happen. The decision that it can make today is to preserve that achievement.”
On a webinar about the report, Abbey called on the U.S. to take steps to increase domestic natural gas consumption and find new ways to use LNG in various consumer products and industrial processes. “Is there something that is holding U.S. industry back from using more natural gas than it would otherwise?,” he asked.
The NCEA is a key player in a highly consequential but wonky debate in Washington about whether the U.S. should try and put thumb screws onto the International Energy Agency, a world power and fuel forecasting body overseen by the OECD, an international body to which the U.S. is the single largest contributor.
The IEA has previously predicted “peak oil” may occur before 2030 — one of many predictions that have led some Republicans in Washington to declare the IEA is no longer impartial and a “cheerleader” for renewable energy. These Republicans have been led by Senator John Barrasso, one of the lawmakers who will oversee Abbey’s nomination. Another fan of this view is Kathleen Sgamma, Trump’s pick to run the Bureau of Land Management, who cited the NCEA to call on U.S. policymakers to pressure the IEA into “meaningful reform” of its forecasting about the energy transition. The op-ed was first reported by E&E News’ Scott Waldman.
How does Abbey feel about the war on the IEA? We’ll find out at his confirmation hearing, which has yet to be scheduled. We’ve asked Republicans on the committee for an update on when that’ll happen and we will let you know once we find out. Given they’re still working through other more high-profile nominees, that’ll take a while.
On auto imports, special elections, and Volvo’s new CEO
Current conditions: Ice storms left more than 900,000 customers without power across Michigan, Wisconsin, and Indiana • The Table Rock Fire, which ignited in South Carolina more than a week ago, has jumped the border into North Carolina • Meteorologists are warning that unprecedented flooding in the Australian state of Queensland could go on for days.
Nearly the entire East Coast faces the threat of severe weather today from a powerful storm system that has already left thousands of customers in central and midwestern states without electricity. Roughly 100 million people will be at risk of damaging winds, hail, and possible tornadoes through Monday evening as a cold front collides with unseasonably warm air to help fuel the system. Some 300 tornadoes have already been recorded in the first three months of 2025, nearly double the number from the same time last year.
Accuweather
President Trump told NBC News over the weekend that he “couldn’t care less” if the prices of cars go up in the U.S. due to his 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and parts. “I hope they raise their prices,” he added, “because if they do, people are going to buy American-made cars.” The vehicle tariffs are set to come into effect on April 3, and Bloombergreports that JPMorgan analysts expect auto prices to increase by 11% on average. “The impact for potential EV buyers is clear,” wrote Andrew Moseman for Heatmap. “New car prices will soar by thousands of dollars with Trump tariffs in place. That will be particularly troublesome for EVs, which are staring down the prospect of this administration trying to remove federal tax credits for Americans who buy electric. If you really want to get into an EV, the best bet might be to act right now before any of this madness takes effect in April.”
On the radar this week: There are two special elections tomorrow in Florida, one of which is looking surprisingly close. Democrats are hoping their candidate, Josh Weil, can flip Florida’s Sixth Congressional District, which is vacant after former Rep. Mike Waltz resigned to become national security adviser to President Trump. Weil has outraised his Republican opponent, State Senator Randy Fine, prompting concern within the GOP about the party’s razor-thin majority in the House. The other special election, for Florida’s First Congressional District, looks less competitive. As Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo and Jael Holzman report, the balance of the chamber has big implications for the fate of the Inflation Reduction Act as the House Ways and Means Committee debates which programs to keep and which to cut to pay for Republicans’ desired tax cuts.
Volvo CEO Jim Rowan is stepping down today and will be replaced on an interim basis by the company’s former CEO Håkan Samuelsson. The move “is somewhat surprising,” said Iulian Dnistran at InsideEVs, “seeing how last year, Volvo posted its best-ever sales, profits and revenue figures.” But Rowan recently warned of a “very challenging year” ahead as trade tensions rise. The company is expected to be hit hard by President Trump’s tariffs on imported cars, and the board is seeking a “steady hand” at the helm.
Samuelsson served in the role for about a decade leading up to 2022, before handing the reins to Rowan. Volvo’s share price has dropped by 66% over three years as the EV transition has progressed more slowly than anticipated. Last year the company abandoned its goal of selling only EVs by 2030 as demand lagged. “With fast-moving technological shifts, growing geopolitical complexity, and intensifying competition across regions, the board believes the company is best served by leadership with deep industrial experience, deep knowledge of our group, and a proven ability to execute in challenging environments,” Volvo said. Samuelsson will serve as CEO for two years as the company searches for a permanent replacement.
China has discovered a large oilfield in the South China Sea with reserves of more than 100 million tons, according to the state news agency Xinhua. The Huizhou 19-6 oilfield sits off the coast of Shenzhen and is in very deep waters, which makes it harder to explore. China is looking to become more energy independent, and the discovery could curb its oil imports. The country’s demand for oil-based fuels has been declining in part because of its rapid transition to electric vehicles. But demand is still growing for oil that gets turned into plastics and textiles. “Oil demand for petrochemicals in China rose by almost 5% in 2024 as new plants came online, a trend that is expected to continue in the next few years,” according to the International Energy Agency.
Fossil fuel emissions in the European Union fell by nearly 3% last year as the power sector moved away from coal. The decline was smaller than the 8.5% drop seen between 2022 and 2023.