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On Turkey’s COP31 win, data center dangers, and Michigan’s anti-nuclear hail mary
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On Turkey’s COP31 win, data center dangers, and Michigan’s anti-nuclear hail mary
On ravenous data centers, treasured aluminum trash, and the drilling slump
On EPA’s wetland protections, worsening blackouts, and a solar bright spot
On partisan cuts, an atomic LPO, and the left’s data center fight
Delegates will attempt to whittle down and codify a list of “indicators” that started with more than 10,000 different options.
One of the world’s leading climate scientists agrees with Gates in spirit, but thinks we can go much further in practice.
On precious metals, China’s iron mine, and New York’s gas ban
Current conditions: With colder air spilling southward from Canada, snow is expected in New England and Upstate New York • Winds of up to 50 miles per hour are blasting the West Coast • Temperatures of nearly 108 degrees Fahrenheit are roasting Senegal.

It’s Election Day. Not every race has significant implications for climate change, but at least a few do. As Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo wrote, those races include:
One other race I’ll add, since it’s one of the most closely-watched elections in the nation, is the one for New York City mayor. While frontrunner Zohran Mamdani has so far said little about energy besides opposing a controversial gas pipeline into the five boroughs, the left-wing Democratic nominee said he would support construction of new nuclear power plants upstate at the last debate. City Hall has limited say over state energy policy, but the mayor does control the contracts the city government writes with the state-owned utility, the New York Power Authority, which is currently working on building a new nuclear plant. If his remarks at the final debate are any indication, Mamdani may endorse contracts to buy power from nuclear power plants as well as the wind and solar he vocally supported as a state lawmaker. “If he can buck the trend of the environmental left’s hostility to nuclear, he could demonstrate to New York City — and to democratic socialist supporters nationwide, who already view him as a likely successor to (notoriously antinuclear) Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders — that the left can think rationally about the energy system, its affordability, and the wide scope of the climate problem,” the writer Fred Stafford wrote in an op-ed for Heatmap this morning. “That would truly be charting a new path.”
On stage at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference yesterday, Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum announced the United States’ support for a critical minerals “club” of countries that will trade the metals needed for energy and weapons without relying on China. “In the last few weeks, the United States has announced a framework for creating a club of nations to be able to trade … [and for] refining and processing critical minerals,” Burgum said at the Adipec conference, according to E&E News.
As Heatmap’s Katie Brigham put it recently, “everybody wants to invest in critical minerals startups,” including the Trump administration. The U.S. military’s Office of Strategic Capital put up a $620 million loan for Vulcan Elements’ efforts to build a factory to produce 10,000 metric tons of rare earth magnets, according to The Wall Street Journal. The Department of Commerce is chipping in another $50 million, while private investors contribute $550 million to a deal that involves ReElement Technologies, a startup that purifies and recycles rare earth metals. Meanwhile, the Export-Import Bank of the U.S. signed onto a letter of interest promising to provide as much as $191 million in financing to Locksley Resources’ rare earths project in California’s Mojave desert.
Bloomberg Businessweek has a sweeping new dispatch from the rainforests of Guinea, where China recently completed a railroad that allows mining companies mostly controlled by Beijing to tap one of the world’s largest and richest iron ore deposits. At $23 billion, the project is Africa’s biggest ever mining project and could make the tiny West African nation the continent’s No. 2 mineral exporter. “Never before has China held this level of pricing power over the seaborne iron ore trade,” Tom Price, head of commodities strategy at Panmure Liberum, told the magazine. “Expect it to start calling the shots here.”
The U.S. has largely struggled to get a leg up on China in critical minerals. As I wrote here last month, the world’s leading commodities traders have urged Western governments to focus on refining metals, not just mining them. In September, I broke news in Heatmap about an Ohio startup called Xerion extending its novel approach to processing mineral ore from cobalt to gallium.
Utility giant Southern Company has signed deals for at least 7 gigawatts of data centers and other large power users, but has a pipeline of more than 50 gigawatts in the works, the company said in its third-quarter earnings last week. The company, which controls some of the largest utilities in the Southeast, is requiring “strong customer protections and credit provisions” to protect against rate increases to serve the new loads, Chief Financial Officer David Poroch said on the call, according to Utility Dive. “Our pipeline of large load data centers and manufacturers continues to be robust across our electric subsidiaries. The total pipeline remains more than 50 gigawatts of potential incremental load by mid 2030s.”
Poroch’s price caveats track with a trend Matthew Zeitlin wrote about recently, of utilities bending over backward to convince even their investors that ratepayers won’t be on the hook for the cost of serving the artificial intelligence buildout. With opposition to data centers high and rising, they’re trying to avoid a popular backlash.
Nineteen Democrats in the New York State Assembly want Governor Kathy Hochul to reject a mandate for electrifying new buildings. The signatories to a letter calling on the governor to halt plans to ban gas hookups in new construction include lawmakers from New York City, Long Island, and upstate, along with Assembly Majority Leader Crystal Peoples-Stokes. The letter was sent to the governor Monday, but Hochul already said she’d consider the request, Politico reported.
Another key test Mamdani's likely election will set up is how highly he prioritizes opposition to the Northeast Supply Enhancement pipeline designed to carry gas from Pennsylvania's fracking fields to stoves and furnaces in the outer boroughs. Hochul supports the project, which backers say will bring down the cost of a fuel that -- even in the most ambitious decarbonization scenarios -- New York will continue to need for many years. After running a campaign laser-focused on affordability, his approach to the project may reveal how important opposing fossil fuel infrastructure remains for the left wing of the Democratic Party.
It’s not your typical kind of media deal. The Cool Down, a climate and sustainability website known for its explainers about sustainable lifestyles and how-to guides, sold itself to the clean-energy company Palmetto. The North Carolina-based company, which leases solar panels, batteries, heat pumps, and other electrified technologies to consumers, has been expanding in recent months, as Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer wrote in a scoop on the acquisition yesterday. “By bringing our companies together, we’re pairing trusted consumer education with real, accessible energy solutions. Together we intend to empower households to take control of their energy future and benefit from the transition that’s already underway,” Chris Kemper, the founder and CEO of Palmetto, said in a statement.
On global emissions, Bill Gates on Chinese nuclear, and a geothermal breakthrough
Current conditions: Hurricane Melissa made landfall over Jamaica as one of the strongest Category 5 storms on record before barreling north toward Cuba • A cold front will send temperatures plunging as far as 15 degrees below average across the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast • The Colombian Andes are bracing for flooding amid up to 8 inches of rain forecast for Wednesday.

The Trump administration’s all-of-government approach to thwarting construction of offshore wind turbines has included the Department of the Interior de-designating federal waters to turbine development and the Department of Transportation yanking funding, in addition to various steps taken by other agencies. Now the Department of Health and Human Services is taking its swing at the industry. On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. directed the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to open an investigation into the potential harms offshore wind farms pose. In late summer, the agency instructed the CDC’s National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health to prepare research about wind farms’ impact on fishing businesses. The effort included Kennedy personally meeting with NIOSH director Josh Howard, in the course of which he gave Howard — a career physician and lawyer who previously oversaw federal efforts on September 11 victims’ health — specific experts to contact, according to the newswire report. The U.S. Surgeon General’s office has also been involved in the initiative.
It’s part of what Heatmap’s Jael Holzman called “Trump’s total war on wind,” an assault that started on President Donald Trump’s first day back in office. Earlier this month, oil major Shell’s top executive in the United States warned that the precedents the administration was setting risked being weaponized against fossil fuel companies once Trump exited power.
In the first real decline ever forecast by the United Nations, global emissions are now expected to fall by 10% below 1990 levels by 2035, according to a report issued Tuesday. But the world remains far off from the 60% reduction goal scientists say is necessary to keep warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius, the target leaders committed to when they signed the Paris Agreement a decade ago. “Humanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough,” Simon Stiell, executive secretary at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, told Bloomberg on Tuesday. “We have a serious need for more speed.”
The latest assessment comes as the U.S. is withdrawing from the Paris climate negotiations and other countries are paring back spending on decarbonization ahead of the UN climate talks in Belem, Brazil, next month.
On Tuesday, Bill Gates released a provocative new treatise on climate change in which he laid out what he sees as necessary ahead of November’s climate summit. Before that, on Friday afternoon, the billionaire philanthropist gathered with half a dozen journalists in a conference room in Manhattan to discuss his latest ideas over lunch. Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer, who was in attendance, has a good breakdown of some of what Gates discussed. I also attended the lunch and wanted to highlight another point Gates made: The West is losing the race for new nuclear power. When it comes to fission, China is building more reactors than anyone else, and helped perfect the Westinghouse AP1000 before its successful construction in the U.S. Gates’ own reactor developer, TerraPower, had plans to build its debut plant in China prior to the souring in relations between Washington and Beijing nearly a decade ago. When it comes to fusion, he said, there’s no topping how much funding China has directed toward the technology.
“The amount of money they’re putting into fusion is more than the rest of the world put together, times two,” Gates told us. “There is a substantial amount of Chinese capital going into that, and in fission, they built the most reactors.”
Chemical giant Honeywell has announced a new technology that converts agricultural and forestry waste into ready-to-use renewable fuels that can directly replace the carbon-intensive fuel used by large ships and airplanes. The so-called “Biocrude Upgrading” processing hardware can be provided in modular form and equipped to ships at a moment when global regulators are seeking to slash the roughly 3% of planet-heating emissions that come from cargo vessels. “The maritime industry has a real need for renewable fuels that are immediately available and cost effective,” Ken West, Honeywell’s energy and sustainability solutions president, said in a statement. The news comes nearly two weeks after Trump “torpedoed” — as Heatmap’s Katie Brigham put it — efforts at the International Maritime Organization to slash emissions from regulated ships.
The geothermal startup Eavor said Tuesday that its breakthroughs in drilling had slashed the time it takes to drill its wells underground. The Canadian company said that the results of two years of drilling at its flagship project in Geretsried, Germany, showed its efforts to dig to hotter and deeper locations are working. “Much like wind and solar have come down the cost curve, much like unconventional shale [oil and gas] have come down the cost curve, we now have a technical proof-point that we’ve done that in Europe,” Jeanine Vany, a cofounder and executive vice president of corporate affairs at Eavor, told Canary Media’s Maria Gallucci.
The breakup of the ancient supercontinent 1.5 billion years ago transformed the Earth’s surface environments and laid the groundwork for the emergence of complex life. That’s according to new research by Australian scientists at the University of Sydney and the University of Adelaide. The findings challenge what has long been called the “boring billion,” a time when biological and geological changes effectively stalled. The plate tectonics that reshaped the planet triggered conditions that supported oxygen-rich oceans and fostered the appearance of the first eukaryotes, the ancestors of all complex life. “Our work reveals that deep Earth processes, specifically the breakup of the ancient supercontinent Nuna, set off a chain of events that reduced volcanic carbon dioxide emissions and expanded the shallow marine habitats where early eukaryotes evolved,” Dietmar Müller, a University of Sydney professor and the study’s lead author, said in a press release.