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Shift Key Special Edition: The Fight Over the Inflation Reduction Act Has Arrived
Rob and Jesse digest the Ways and Means budget bill live on air, alongside former Treasury advisor Luke Bassett.
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Rob and Jesse digest the Ways and Means budget bill live on air, alongside former Treasury advisor Luke Bassett.
Rob and Jesse go deep on the electricity machine.
Rob and Jesse talk with Texas energy expert Doug Lewin.
Rob and Jesse assess the climate geopolitics of Trump’s latest trade moves.
Rob and Jesse get into the nitty gritty on China’s energy policy with Joanna Lewis and John Paul Helveston.
Rob and Jesse catch up on the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund with former White House official Kristina Costa.
The Inflation Reduction Act dedicated $27 billion to build a new kind of climate institution in America — a network of national green banks that could lend money to companies, states, schools, churches, and housing developers to build more clean energy and deploy more next-generation energy technology around the country.
It was an innovative and untested program. And the Trump administration is desperately trying to block it. Since February, Trump’s criminal justice appointees — led by Ed Martin, the interim U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia — have tried to use criminal law to undo the program. After failing to get the FBI and Justice Department to block the flow of funds, Trump officials have successfully gotten the program’s bank partner to freeze relevant money. The new green banks have sued to gain access to the money.
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse talk with Kristina Costa, who has been tracking the effort to bankrupt the green banks. Costa helped lead the Inflation Reduction Act’s implementation in the White House from 2022 to 2025 — and is a previous Shift Key guest. She joins us to discuss how Trump is weaponing criminal law to block a climate program, whether there’s any precedent for his actions, and what could come next in the legal battle. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: There's kind of two lines you hear from the Trump administration about this, two claims made by the Trump administration about the reason for these seizures, and I just wanna talk about them briefly because this is an unprecedented action. We should look at why the government has claimed that it needs to take this unprecedented action.
The first has to do with this video made by Project Veritas, a kind of conservative media organization …
Kristina Costa: A hit squad.
Meyer: A hit squad that recorded, unwittingly, an EPA official who described the EPA’s actions during December 2024, between the loss of the election and the inauguration, as “throwing gold bars off the Titanic.” That the agency was so eager and desperate to spend as much of the IRA down as it could before the Trump administration took office that it was like they were throwing gold bars off the Titanic — you know, a sinking ship.
The EPA administrator has fixated on this line and described it as waste and self-dealing, suggesting reckless financial mismanagement, blatant conflicts of interest, astonishing sums of tax dollars awarded to unqualified recipients and severe deficiencies of regulatory oversight.
You were involved in setting up the IRA. I wonder, first of all, just how do you reflect on this episode? And second of all, was the Biden administration doing the proverbial version of throwing gold bars off the Titanic during the post-election period?
Costa: Yeah, so I mean, it falls apart as any sort of quote-unquote evidence in what's happening with the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund if you just believe in the linear nature of time. So, as I said, we announced EPA made the selections in April of 2024. The funds were fully obligated in August of 2024. Grantees were starting to make announcements about investments in October of 2024 — all dates which precede election day by weeks to months. And so it is just a complete fabrication on the part of Lee Zeldin that there was any sort of inappropriate action on the part of the Biden EPA or any of the other agencies in doing what Congress directed us to do, which was to award and obligate funds to recipients consistent with the provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act that authorized and appropriated funds for the programs.
We had also — and I think I might have said this when I was with you guys in December — one of the first things that we did, from the White House implementation team, was to meet with all of our grant agencies and, in September and October of 2022, set targets for them for how much funding we wanted them to try to award and obligate by the end of the administration. And we set a goal, basically, that we would be aiming to have at least 80% of the available funds obligated by the end of 2024. And we hit that. And so the idea that there was some massive acceleration post-election — like, were there some contracts that the agencies obligated in December and January that, in the event of a Kamala Harris administration, they would've maybe obligated in February and March instead? Sure. I'm not going to say otherwise, but those grants had been made already. There wasn't this rush of actual decision-making.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
Rob and Jesse talk with a former Meta energy executive, Near Horizon Group’s Peter Freed.
If you care about decarbonizing the power grid anytime soon, you have to care about data centers. The AI boom and the ongoing growth of the internet have driven a big new cycle of data center construction in the United States, with tech companies trying to buy electricity on the scale of large cities’ energy demands.
Peter Freed has seen this up close. As Meta’s former director of energy strategy, he worked on clean energy procurement and data center development from 2014 to 2024. He is now a founding partner at the Near Horizon Group, where he advises investors and companies on emerging topics in data centers and advanced clean energy.
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse talk with Peter about whether AI and new data centers are going to blow up the grid and break decarbonization. What are the real-world constraints on developing a data center in 2025? Are tech companies beginning to run out of natural gas to burn? What do their investments in clean energy mean? And could the rise of AI prompt an accidental return to coal? Shift Key is hosted by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, and Robinson Meyer, Heatmap’s executive editor.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: Even now, most of the data centers getting built are not AI data centers, right? The AI signal has yet to fully set in. Is that right?
Peter Freed: That’s right. What I would say is, if you look back at what happened, what got announced in 2024, most of the data centers that broke ground and were announced in 2024 were part of a demand plan that was done in 2023, when we did not have the AI demand ratchet, as I call it, on the system.
Now, what people then did is they probably just pulled stuff in. So you know, maybe you were going to do four data centers in 2024 and a few more in 2025. And instead they just, they yanked it forward. So it is also true that we’re definitely seeing the beginnings of this. But this year, 2025, will be a real bellwether year in terms of what the likely overall picture looks like. And one of the proxies that you can use for that is the capex forecast of the hyperscalers. So Meta’s capex forecast in 2024 was $38 billion; 2025, their capex forecast is $65 billion. So that’s a huge jump.
And by the way, Meta in particular doesn’t have a cloud business, so they’re not dependent on the signals coming in from other people. This is just for their own. So in some ways, it’s a clearer picture than we get from some of the other companies. Both Microsoft and Google are up at $80 billion. So to me this says, okay, 2025 is kind of going to show us where this trajectory is likely to go. And it’s pretty high.
I see the same reports that you all see. We’re probably somewhere between 30 [gigawatts] and 100 gigawatts of incremental data center-related load by 2030. I’d take the over at 50 gigawatts. It might be a little bit less, it might be more — 100 [gigawatts], I don’t know. So that’s a big signal.
Jesse Jenkins: For context, 50 gigawatts is half of the U.S. nuclear power fleet.
Freed: That’s correct. Yeah.
Jenkins: Maybe like 10% of U.S. electricity.
Freed: Yeah. Yeah. And so it lines up pretty well with what we were just talking about in terms of those forecasts. At the same time, if you look at all of the load growth projections that utilities with major data center demand have in their jurisdictions, you also get a number which is way larger than 50 gigawatts.
What is the reason for this gratuitous speculative behavior, the likes of which the industry has never seen? And we can talk as much or as little about that as you want, but it is simultaneously true that I think this is going to be a really large demand driver and that we have bubble-like characteristics in terms of the amount of stuff that people are trying to get done.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.