Adaptation
The Deadliest Part of a Wildfire Might Not Be the Blaze
Smoke from the raging fires in Indonesia may go down as this year’s deadliest climate tragedy.
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Smoke from the raging fires in Indonesia may go down as this year’s deadliest climate tragedy.
The “35x35” electrification pledge and an AI pledge are on the table.
The odds of BAAJA passing likely grew a few degrees worse.
Plus, one big opportunity for climate change.
On Prosperity One, data centers in space, and Vaca Muerta
Current conditions: Debris left behind by Halley’s Comet is set to create a meteor shower across the sky tonight into tomorrow morning • Super Typhoon Champi is roaring just east of the Philippines’ most populous island, Luzon, with winds of up to 133 miles per hour • The heat wave roasting East Africa is driving temperatures in the Sudanese capital of Khartoum past 106 degrees Fahrenheit.
El Niño is giving us a taste of what the warming we have locked in as a species will feel like. Just look at the extreme weather that raged this summer in the form of storms and heat waves as the cyclical weather pattern drove up temperature averages past 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. That’s the maximum warming benchmark set in the 2015 Paris Agreement, later reinforced in a landmark 2018 United Nations report. Now the latest data from the UN Environment Programme shows that we’re well on our way to making this year’s El Niño the new norm. A report released Wednesday suggests the current trajectory of emissions means the “lowest possible” warming scenario would lead to global temperatures peaking at about 1.7 degrees to 1.8 degrees by midcentury before potentially returning to 1.5 degrees by 2100. To put the world on that pathway, global emissions would need to fall by 18% in the next three years relative to 2025 levels. Then 45% by 2035. Then another 69% by 2040.
The world is a long way from making that possible. If every country fully implements its promised emissions cuts, greenhouse gas output would fall by just 5% to 8% by 2030, and from 11% to 15% by 2035. “Overshoot is not surrender,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement. “We can still keep it as small and as short as possible — and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century.”
In an era when the atomic power industry is rife with startups promising to build novel kinds of reactors, The Nuclear Company stands out as the lone firm simply trying to restore America’s capacity to build the machines the country already has. The startup formed around the simple concept of building more large-scale reactors with settled designs — essentially leaving only one option, the Westinghouse AP1000. CEO Jonathan Webb, who appeared last month on our Shift Key podcast, assembled a team that included many managers from the successful construction of the nation’s first two AP1000s at Southern Company’s Plant Vogtle. The company forged a partnership with Westinghouse’s majority owner, Brookfield, in a bid to complete the AP1000 project South Carolina abandoned nearly a decade ago at the V.C. Summer plant. Now The Nuclear Company has finally unveiled its first new major project: Building six reactors on a greenfield site in Kentucky. It’s the exact sort of project that vaulted China to the front of the modern nuclear race and made Beijing’s reverse-engineered AP1000 one of the cheapest reactors in the world to build. By constructing six at one time, the cost of each reactor is expected to get cheaper and more efficient, while still maintaining the cost advantage that nuclear builders traditionally seize from larger units that generate more power. Dubbed “Prosperity One,” the project will ultimately produce 6.6 gigawatts of electricity, making it the largest and most powerful nuclear station in the country and the nation’s second-highest capacity electrical plant after the Grand Coulee Dam. The Nuclear Company expects to begin construction in 2028. “For generations, communities along the Ohio River have formed America’s industrial backbone,” Joe Klecha, The Nuclear Company’s chief nuclear officer who helped oversee construction of the Vogtle reactors, said in a statement. “We are proud to partner with the community to apply our team’s collective experience to deliver lasting jobs, a stronger tax base, and reliable power for Kentucky.”
Top officials from the administrations of presidents George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden have called on Congress to pass the bipartisan permitting reform bill. In an open letter to the leaders of the House of Representatives and the Senate, 19 former officials said “alleviating our permitting bottlenecks can help ensure that America retains its competitive edge” and called the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, or BAAJA, “the most significant bipartisan legislative effort that Congress has undertaken in decades to tackle these challenges.” The signatories include former Treasury chiefs Janet Yellen, Steven Mnuchin, Timothy Geithner, and Hank Paulson; economic advisors Jason Furman, Glenn Hubbard, and Laura D’Andrea Tyson; and former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta.
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A federal judge in Mississippi struck down an attempt by the Trump administration to dismiss a lawsuit by a top civil rights group accusing Elon Musk’s xAI of violating environmental laws to power one of its biggest data centers. On Tuesday, Reuters reported that U.S. District Judge Debra Brown told the Environmental Protection Agency that it lacked the authority to unilaterally toss out the lawsuit from the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, which alleges that xAI and its subsidiary were violating federal law and state regulations by building and operating a gas-fired power plant in Southaven, Mississippi, without the required air permits.
Meanwhile, in Wyoming, the data center developer Tallgrass is looking to win over skeptical locals as it seeks to build a data center complex in the state. The Colorado-based company said it would launch a $105 million conservation and stewardship fund for Yellowstone National Park, in what WyoFile called the “largest single private gift in the agency’s history.” With the cost of good community relations growing so high, it’s no wonder data centers are looking to the final frontier to continue the AI buildout. On Tuesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered with Cowboy Space Corporation, which is aiming to put data centers into orbit. As my colleague Katie Brigham wrote, “in space, no one can oppose your data center.”
The Department of Energy has been spending a lot of money on electricity infrastructure. Barely a week after the agency pumped $581 million into the grid spanning eight states in the Tennessee Valley Authority’s territory, the Energy Department has announced $967 million for a state and tribal grid resilience program. In a statement, Katie Jereza, the assistant secretary of energy for the Office of Electricity, said “a strong and dependable grid is the backbone of American economic prosperity.”

Putting aside the fact that a bird as majestic as the vulture deserves a better connotation, it’s impossible not to use the scavenger as a metaphor for the U.S. fracking companies circling Vaca Muerta. Literally Spanish for “dead cow,” the shale formation in northern Patagonia is Argentina’s best hope of reviving its oil and gas industry. The first major U.S. company to show up in the patch was the Houston-based driller Patterson-UTI, which leased two rigs to Argentina’s YPF. In April, Halliburton arrived following a multibillion-dollar deal to provide oilfield services. Now West Virginia-based Nacelle Solutions is inking its own deal. The gas services company announced that its first Nacelle Goalie, a gas distribution system, had arrived in Argentina. A second one is en route. “Argentina is one of the most exciting shale markets in the world, and its operators are committed to figuring out the best way to utilize gas solutions for their operations,” Gov Graney, Nacelle’s co-founder and co-owner, said in a statement. “They are looking to U.S. shale for technology that is already proven at scale. We have spent more than a decade learning how to maximize diesel displacement safely and reliably and we're proud to bring that experience to the Vaca Muerta.”
Endurance Energy hoped its generator would run for a full year, but the team isn’t afraid of the “error” in “trial and error.”
About 300 miles off the Oregon coast, a mile beneath the ocean’s surface, a startup just drilled the world’s first subsea geothermal well. And for a grand total of exactly 8.7 seconds, its prototype power plant generated about 2 kilowatts of net power. It wasn’t quite the result the Seattle-based Endurance Energy was hoping for — the company’s goal was to run its 100-kilowatt generator for a full year. But it’s not nothing.
“We really proved with this mission that a geothermal well could be drilled and completed on the seafloor, and doing that within 21 months of the company existing I think is really a testament to our pace of progress,” Endurance CEO Andrew Redd told me.
A former SpaceX engineer — as so many climate tech founders seem to be — Redd appears quite comfortable with the rapid trial-and-error cycles that hard tech startups often demand. Or as he stated in the company’s press release, which provides a refreshingly frank account of what this first test did and didn’t accomplish, “We follow the adage ‘make it exist, then make it good.’”
Investors seem to be buying it. In June, the startup raised a $54 million Series A, led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund — Endurance’s second funding round in less than two years of existence. Still, the team certainly has their work cut out for them. The ocean is a notoriously difficult operating environment: Saltwater is corrosive and offshore infrastructure is difficult and expensive to build, maintain, and repair.
Indeed, Endurance spent the first 11 days of its three-week stint at sea debugging its drill, which the team had never operated underwater before. But with a vessel chartered and a locked-in deployment date, the company couldn’t afford to wait for everything to work out perfectly. “We were still working on that generator hours before it got on the seafloor,” Redd told me. He’s used to that sort of thing, though, comparing it to making final tweaks to rockets already sitting on the launchpad. “That’s kind of the name of the game,” he said.
The trial took place at Axial Seamount, an active underwater volcano and the only place in the world with a cluster of hydrothermal vents connected to shore by fiber optic cable, which allows the Endurance team to monitor and control its system in real time from Seattle. While this was the company’s fifth deep-sea mission, it was the team’s first attempt to actually drill their own well.
After lowering their drill about a mile below the surface, the team bored two holes and turned the second into a well about 2 inches wide, lining it with pipe and sealing it with cement. But after losing so much time to debugging, the team only managed to drill about 52 feet deep — far short of its original 200-foot target.
Water then flowed up the well at about 260 degrees Celsius (around 500 degrees Fahrenheit), but the narrow borehole proved too restrictive to deliver enough heat for the generator to operate. So the team pivoted, connecting the generator directly to a naturally flowing, hotter hydrothermal vent instead. The generator then ran for a total of 29 seconds, producing about 2 kilowatts of net power for 8.7 seconds. That represents the total electricity the turbine generated, minus the 7 to 8 kilowatts needed to run its supporting components, such as the refrigerant pump and other onboard equipment.
Then a software glitch triggered the onboard battery safety system, which shut down the plant. When the team tried to restart the system, the power cable feeding the refrigerant pump failed, leaving the pump unable to restart. That was the end of the road. The mission wrapped up after three weeks at sea, a far shorter run than the team had hoped.
“The success criteria would be if we had left with the generator still on the seafloor; that would have been an example of sustained net power, and we didn’t get there,” Redd told me. Instead, the team brought the system back to Endurance’s Seattle headquarters, where it’s fixing the software as well as refurbishing and upgrading the hardware — which includes changing how it builds and tests subsea cables — to prepare for another mission sometime this winter. This time, the goal will be to generate sustained power from a much deeper well.
The team will need to demonstrate progress soon to keep its next major milestone on track: a planned 2-megawatt deployment off the coast of Tonga by the end of 2027. The project aims to supply electricity directly to the Tongan grid, which today is heavily dependent on expensive, imported diesel. Redd expects subsea geothermal to be cost-competitive with that fuel in this first pilot.
Getting there, however, is a formidable engineering challenge. While it’s long been a subject of academic curiosity, no one prior to Endurance had ever drilled an offshore geothermal well before, meaning the team can’t simply transplant existing land-based technology to the seafloor. “Every component that you would use terrestrially now needs to be either modified or built completely from scratch,” Redd explained. “And so you multiply that across every component required to make these kinds of infrastructure projects happen, and it’s a lot of work.”
No kidding. But if Endurance can pull it off, Redd sees this resource as “the perfect energy source for the future.” A conference paper presented by the geoscience company Viridien last year estimates that offshore geothermal resources worldwide could yield about 6 terawatts of recoverable electric power — nearly twice the world’s current continuous electricity output.
“We can access terawatts of power. There’s no fuel. We can site next to extremely large cities around the Pacific. We have no surface presence,” Redd said, ticking off the advantages. Plus, the three necessary ingredients for a high-quality geothermal well — permeable rock, high heat, and water — are widely accessible offshore, he added. Eventually, he expects subsea geothermal to undercut natural gas in Endurance’s target markets: electricity grids, industrial facilities, and data centers across the Pacific Islands, the U.S. West Coast, and Northeast Asia, all of which sit along the undersea volcanic zone known as the “Ring of Fire.”
The way Redd sees it, advances in subsea technology pioneered by the offshore wind, oil, and gas industries have cleared much of the technological path to making underwater geothermal a viable clean energy resource. In his view, what’s been missing is simply the ambition to chase the opportunity in the private market. SpaceX, he said, really proved what’s possible for a scrappy startup to achieve.
“It is quite new at industrial scale for a small company with a bunch of fairly young people to go after something like this,” he told me. “Before SpaceX went to launch a rocket as a private company, no one thought you could get to orbit as a private company. And so that has really seeded this ambition.”