Economy
Energy Prices Are Still Heating Up the Economy
That almost certainly means another rate hike in December.
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That almost certainly means another rate hike in December.
Clean energy stocks are up, unless they’re firm.
The bill would let states and utilities discriminate against data centers and crypto miners, requiring them to pay higher rates to cover the full cost of any system upgrades.
A conversation with Sam Lyman of the Bitcoin Policy Institute.
Greenhouse gas pollution could drop by half a percent this year, according to a new analysis.
On a Russia-Ukraine truce, Dems’ climate shift, and Ambler Road
Current conditions: Temperatures in Laredo, Texas, are soaring past 103 degrees Fahrenheit amid a heat wave scorching the Southern and Central United States • Tropical Storm Norbert is weakening in the Pacific right as another depression is strengthening into Tropical Storm Odalys • South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal is facing severe thunderstorms with winds of up to 50 miles per hour.
President Donald Trump declared a truce Monday morning between Russia and Ukraine over energy infrastructure, claiming that both countries had agreed to stop attacking refineries, pipelines, and power plants going forward despite those facilities representing frequent targets since the war began in 2022. In a post on his Truth Social platform, the U.S. leader said record-high diesel prices were “mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine war, not Iran,” suggesting prices would come down now that “Ukraine has agreed to not hit Russian energy targets” and “Russia has agreed to do likewise.” Neither Kyiv nor Moscow has confirmed the pact, according to Reuters.
Meanwhile, the price of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark set out of Europe, briefly surpassed $109 per barrel before coming back down to $106 by the time the market closed Monday. West Texas Intermediate, out of the U.S., hit about $102, while Murban crude from the United Arab Emirates shot up 10% to $131 per barrel. The latest surge came after Saudi Arabia halted shipments via its East-West Pipeline, the main conduit through which the kingdom has exported oil since the Strait of Hormuz’s closure stopped tankers from leaving the Persian Gulf.
The average fuel surcharge for grain shipments on U.S. railways more than doubled over the past year, in the latest sign of how soaring energy prices will spur inflation of food costs. The surcharge skyrocketed 153% to 48 cents per rail car-mile by the second week of September, according to a Reuters analysis of U.S. Department of Agriculture data. The surcharges accounted for 11% of the total rail transportation costs for shipping corn and soybeans, compared to 5% a year ago. Railroads collected about $3 billion in fuel surcharges in the second quarter of this year, covering 90% of diesel costs. The situation highlights why now is “the worst time for diesel to get expensive,” my colleague Matthew Zeitlin wrote last month, since harvest season is around the corner and most farming equipment runs on the fuel.
House Democrats are out with their first new climate agenda since the Green New Deal’s glory days of 2020. This time, however, it’s more of what the top Democrat behind the proposal called “a workable plan for long term economic and job growth” than an emissions-cutting blitz. My colleague Emily Pontecorvo has a detailed breakdown of what’s in it, but here are the five big takeaways:
“We’re not introducing a bill after this,” Representative Kathy Castor, the Florida Democrat who oversaw the project to draft the agenda, told Emily. “We’re providing it to policymakers in Washington for them to build the bipartisan support you need to get something across the finish line. The Trump administration is going to be there for two more years. What can we get done now that would have bipartisan support?”
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The U.S. needs $110 billion to build 45 gigawatts of new power generation through 2030 to meet the surging demand from data centers, according to a Moody’s Ratings analysis. More than 30 gigawatts of that supply is slated to come from natural gas-fired plants, with solar and storage making up much of the rest and nuclear restarts accounting for less than 5%, Bloomberg reported. That all sounds like a lot. But consider that the U.S. started this year on track to add 86 gigawatts of new generation, much of which it from solar and storage, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In other words, we deployed nearly twice as much new generation in the past year as we would need for data centers through the end of this decade.
The nation’s largest operator of nuclear and geothermal power plants, Constellation Energy, certainly sees gas as the likelier near-term source of power generation in New England. On Monday, Utility Dive reported that the utility giant plans to buy the 609-megawatt Rhode Island State Energy Center from Shell Energy for $715 million. It’s easy to see why gas looks like a safe bet. Three Massachusetts utilities are now suing Hydro-Quebec, the state-owned utility in Canada’s French-speaking province, over a shortfall in deliveries during particularly hot days this summer — while Hydro-Quebec is, in turn, suing for payments it says the American power companies owe, according to Canary Media. That electricity drama is unfolding as New Englanders prepare to “pay through the nose to stay warm this winter” as the price of heating fuel soars, Matthew wrote last week.

Almost exactly a year ago, Trump issued an executive order approving the long-stalled federal project to build a road through the Alaskan wilderness to support production of minerals from the remote Ambler Mining District. Now the U.S. government is taking a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals, the 50% co-owner of a joint venture with the Australian miner South32 focused on extracting copper, zinc, and other metals from the site. As part of the deal, the company said in a press release, the Department of Defense “committed to work in good faith to help facilitate financing required for construction of the proposed 211-mile, industrial-use-only Ambler Road.”
The Pentagon also inked a $450 million deal with The Elmet Group, an integrated miner and processor, with $150 million earmarked for Toronto-based Blue Moon Metals’ tungsten mine in Nevada, Mining.com reported.
There’s still an open debate about how much of the nuclear supply chain Saudi Arabia would be allowed to control under the kingdom’s coveted deal with the Trump administration. Whether the Saudis should enrich — or, even more worrying from a nonproliferation standpoint, recycle — nuclear fuel will generate heated discussion in the years to come. But it looks increasingly likely that the oil-rich nation will mine at least some of its own uranium. “Exploration and geological studies at the Jabal Sayid project in Madinah have revealed estimated resources of around 110 million tonnes of ore with high concentrations of rare earth minerals, especially the heavy elements, alongside promising concentrations of uranium,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the kingdom’s energy minister, told Arab News.
On Duane Arnold, Germany’s far-right win, and Israel’s Falklands play
Current conditions: After decades without a major storm, Hawaii is set to be brushed by its second hurricane this season as Hurricane Lowell comes within 100 miles of the state’s western islands • Typhoon Krovanh is stalling over Okinawa, Japan, and weakening back into a tropical depression • Eastward in the Pacific, Hurricane Marie battered Southern California with 10-foot waves.
On Labor Day, I took a long drive through southern New England and filled the tank of my typically very efficient Honda Accord. The price at the pump made me grateful for work. Gas prices hit a record high for America’s end-of-summer holiday, reaching an average of $4.14, according to the AAA motor club. The national average has never been above $4 for Labor Day weekend, and the new figure easily bested the previous peak of $3.82, set on September 3, 2012. I was too irritated to write down the exact price I paid on Interstate 95 in Connecticut, but it was somewhere closer to $4.30.
The new high came as Iran set up what The Independent called a “potential clash with the U.S. Navy” over a new exclusion zone the Islamic Republic threatened to enforce in the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the price of crude ticked upward. Murban crude, the benchmark for barrels coming out of the United Arab Emirates, spiked more than 3% to nearly $107. Europe’s Brent crude rose nearly 1% to $97 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. measure, rose by more than 1% to about $93. Never fear, for the Russians are — despite sanctions — bringing more supply online. Rosneft shipped the first crude from its Vostok Oil project, which Russia believes holds around 7 billion tons of low-sulfur crude. Per Oil Price, the “project reinforces Russia’s energy pivot toward Asia and the Arctic, with the Northern Sea Route becoming increasingly important for future exports.”
The Department of Energy has unveiled a $1.9 billion loan to restart Iowa’s lone, shuttered nuclear station, the Duane Arnold Energy Center. This morning, the agency’s Office of Energy Dominance Financing said it had already closed the deal with NextEra Energy, the station’s owner. The funding comes as little surprise. The Trump administration is pushing hard to bring more nuclear generation online. One of the first Biden-era spending packages the current administration approved to go out after taking office was a $1.5 billion loan to fund the restart of the first reactor expected to ever begin operations again after a permanent closure, the Palisades nuclear station in Michigan. That plant, as I told you in July, has reached a “watershed moment” and could come back online before its contract to sell electricity kicks in early next year. “Returning 615 megawatts of reliable baseload generation will drive down electricity costs, while supporting thousands of American jobs,” James Danly, the deputy secretary of energy, said in a statement. The head of the financing office, Gregory Beard, called Duane Arnold, which closed in 2020, “exactly the kind of investment that will help restore American nuclear leadership.”
The company behind Palisades, meanwhile, just took a major step toward debuting on the stock market. Early this morning, Holtec Nuclear Corporation, as the company previously called Holtec International will now be known, announced plans to raise more than $1 billion when it starts trading on the Nasdaq. Holtec has not yet given a specific date for its IPO. And just now, another nuclear startup announced an initial fundraising round. Bluecore Energy, one of the firms competing to commercialize offshore floating nuclear in the U.S., pulled in a $50 million seed round led by the venture firm Silverton Partners.
The U.S. Export-Import Bank has issued a letter of interest expressing its willingness to invest up to $750 million into Project Dynamo, a rare earth processing facility in Louisiana.
The plant is the flagship refinery of Alcara Resources, where the Vancouver-based company behind the project, plans to process heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium from its Carina mine in Goiás, Brazil. Compared to the light rare earths produced at California’s Mountain Pass mine, the only U.S. rare earths mine, heavy rare earths are more difficult to refine. The infrastructure is particularly risky given its high cost and the relatively small volumes of heavy rare earths that are needed. “The potential support from EXIM would provide a pathway to bring these capabilities together at industrial scale,” Ramón Barúa, Aclara’s chief executive, said in a press release. “Our objective is to establish a secure, traceable, and sustainable supply chain capable of serving U.S. and allied industries across some of the most critical sectors of the global economy.”Meanwhile, Africa is set for its largest initial public offering in the history of any stock exchange on the continent. Alika Dangote, Africa’s richest man, is looking to raise at least $1.6 billion by listing his oil refinery business on the Nigerian stock exchange. “We’re targeting 10 million shareholders from all over Africa and maybe other parts of the world,” Dangote told the Financial Times. “If you can afford 10 shares, you buy 10. If you can afford one million, you buy one million.”
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For the first time since democracy returned to Germany after World War II, a far-right party is set to assume control of one of the republic’s states. In Sunday’s elections, Alternative für Deutschland won the race to control Saxony-Anhalt, bringing the party to power in one of five former East German states. The national party’s manifesto calls for a “180-degree U-turn in energy policy.” The statewide party in Saxony-Anhalt pledges a “wind power moratorium,” though an analysis by the German investigative site Correctiv — translated into English by the anti-fossil fuels publication DeSmog — cautioned that the party has limited powers since turbine permits are regulated at the federal level. In 2024, Saxony-Anhalt bested the national average by generating about 60% of its power from renewables. Before Germany’s other parties embraced calling the country’s nuclear phaseout a mistake, the AfD, at least on the national level, was among atomic energy’s only high-profile defenders in the country. Still, the AfD’s most significant electoral victory to date sent shockwaves through Germany, where anxiety over the Nazi era has stirred intense debates over whether the party itself has a legal right to compete in elections where right-wing extremists are barred. The party’s defenders, including Elon Musk, counter that the AfD is a legitimate conservative movement addressing issues Germany’s mainstream parties have ignored or obscured.
Across the border in the country exporting lots of nuclear power into Germany every day, France is putting up nearly $1.2 billion to support farmers suffering losses from this summer’s brutal heat waves and wildfires. The funds, according to Bloomberg, will compensate farmers whose crops died off during the drought and heat. “This is new money, not recycled,” Agriculture Minister Annie Genevard said Friday in a press conference, pledging a “massive effort” from the government amid heated debates over the 2027 budget and preparations for next year’s presidential election, which could vault the far-right Marine Le Pen to office.”
You may have been barbecuing and drinking Surfsides on your day off. But on Monday, Ilya Espino de Marotta took over as the new head of the Panama Canal Authority, becoming the first woman to lead the agency overseeing the waterway. The Panamanian engineer has her work cut out for her. She arrives at the helm after a summer of drought that left water levels in the 50-mile pass between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans impassably low. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, she said she is simultaneously taking on major infrastructure upgrades while managing an influx of shipping as cargo haulers veer away from the Persian Gulf amid the ongoing war. “We are developing a new lake, the Río Indio project. It will be able to accumulate enough water to provide 10 to 15 additional transits per day or about the same volume consumed by drinking water,” she said when asked about water levels. “This project should be ready in 2031.”
In more inflammatory Latin American geopolitics, Israel’s controversial national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, has publicly urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to recognize Argentina’s claim to the Falkland Islands. Buenos Aires has long claimed the oil-rich archipelago, which has no documented history of indigenous habitation prior to the British setting up the most permanent settlement ever established. In repeated elections since Britain defeated Argentina following its invasion in 1982, the population of fewer than 4,000 predominantly British people has voted almost unanimously to remain under the Union Jack. Now that the United Kingdom is building the infrastructure to begin drilling for oil offshore starting in 2032 — under a project led by investors with strong ties to Israel, mind you — Argentinian President Javier Milei is working his strong relationships with other right-wing leaders, including President Donald Trump, to gain recognition of what his country calls Las Malvinas. “It’s time for the State of Israel to publicly recognize that the Malvinas Islands are Argentine territory under occupation, which the British violently stole from the Argentine people. The British are not content with merely occupying the territory; they also carry out oil drilling there and steal the money from the Argentine people,” Ben-Gvir wrote in a Spanish-language post on X. “I call upon Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to recognize Argentina’s sovereignty over the Malvinas Islands and to impose sanctions on Great Britain as long as the occupation continues.”
In November 2016, I rode a ferry from Rhode Island to see North America’s first-ever offshore wind turbines. The five-turbine Block Island wind farm, located just off the vacation enclave, seemed magnificently novel a decade ago. This past weekend I rode the ferry with my family to Block Island — the first time I had come near these waters since then. When I stood on the port side pointing out what looked like pinwheels in the distance, I was struck by the vast array of turbines that preceded it: Revolution Wind. On a sunny day, most of the blades in sight were spinning. That wasn’t a given. Regular Heatmap readers know the saga of that project well: Trump tried to kill Revolution Wind repeatedly, the developer fought back, and now it’s roaring. Back when the U.S. turned away from nuclear power following the 1979 Three Mile Island accident, a lot of nuclear engineers headed to South Korea to help that country build what’s now the democratic world’s most competitive atomic power industry. Offshore wind workers may consider a similar pathway. Last week, Renewables Now reported that Seoul plans to designate 25 gigawatts of preliminary offshore wind zones by 2031, with the potential to support up to 45 gigawatts of turbines by 2040.