Economy
The Fed Announcement Is a Sneaky Bust for Renewables Developers
The central bank cut rates again, but that’s not the headline news.
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The central bank cut rates again, but that’s not the headline news.
On a new IEA report, EV batteries, and some good news about emissions
Five years from the emergence of the disease, the world — and the climate — is still grappling with its effects.
And the predictable battle lines are already being drawn.
A new report finds that utilities are spending more than fossil fuel companies to keep up with data center electricity demand.
On Mayotte’s death toll, the last days of the Biden administration, and subsidence
On ExxonMobil’s behind the meter plans, a lawsuit in Washington, and Ontario’s warning to Trump.
Current conditions:The wind chill could reach -20 degrees Fahrenheit in Chicago today • Red flag warnings have finally expired in Malibu • Governor Kathy Hochul has declared a state of emergency for Western and Central New York due to “near whiteout conditions” from a lake effect snowstorm.
ExxonMobil announced Wednesday that it plans to “generate low-carbon electricity for data centers in the United States” by building natural gas-fueled power plants outfitted with carbon capture and storage technology to supply “behind-the-meter” electricity, unconnected from the grid. Staying off the grid will help the company avoid making costly transmission upgrades, meaning the generation capacity “can be installed at a pace that other alternatives, including U.S. nuclear power, cannot match,” Exxon said. Matthew Zeitlin explains in Heatmap that the move comes as the power industry “has reached an inflection point thanks to new demand from data centers to power artificial intelligence, electrification of transportation and heating, and new manufacturing investment,” with ExxonMobil joining Chevron in exploring behind-the-meter options for natural gas.
President-elect Donald Trump announced Wednesday that he wants Jacob Helberg to serve as his under-secretary of State for economic growth, energy, and the environment — the highest-ranking State Department economic policy position available. A former supporter of Democrat Pete Buttigieg, Helberg reportedly “fell in love” with Trump (and became a major donor, to the tune of $1 million) partly because of the Biden administration’s move to regulate artificial intelligence, which he considered burdensome.
At 34, Helberg is notably inexperienced — he “has never built a successful tech company or led a major fund,” Forbes writes, and he currently serves as an adviser to the CEO of the defense contractor Palantir. But Helberg has earned his reputation as a China hawk, having thrown his weight behind Congress’ TikTok ban, calling the app a “weapon of war.” Helberg has broadly called for the United States to “reindustrialize” to “secure its supply chains and information networks against Chinese attacks.”
Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatened to cut off the province’s electricity exports to the United States if President-elect Trump follows through on his proposal to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian imports next year. “Depending how far this goes, we will go to the extent of cutting off their energy, going down to Michigan, going down to New York State, and over to Wisconsin,” Ford said. “I don’t want this to happen, but my number one job is to protect Ontario, Ontarians, and Canadians as a whole.” Roughly 85% of U.S. electricity imports come from Canada, with Ontario responsible for about 13.9 million megawatt-hours of electricity, powering about 1.5 million American homes. Most electricity generated in Ontario is from renewable sources, primarily nuclear and hydropower, with the province’s exports helping New York, Maryland, and Illinois to meet their clean energy commitments.
A Washington State ballot measure that would hamper efforts to transition buildings away from natural gas is “unconstitutional,” according to a group of activists, who filed a lawsuit Wednesday seeking to overturn it. The ballot measure, Initiative 2066, passed with 51.7% of the vote in November after being pitched by its sponsor, the Building Industry Association of Washington, as protecting consumer choice by preventing a hypothetical “gas ban.”
“But the text of the measure goes much further,” according to the activists, since it affects “several state laws and codes designed to reduce carbon emissions and regulate air pollution,” Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo reported Wednesday. As such, the plaintiffs argue that Washingtonians were not fully informed about I-2066 when they voted on it — in violation of the state’s constitution, which requires ballot measures to be limited to a single, accurately represented subject.
Executives at Amazon and the pharmaceutical giant Pfizer described Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., as potentially amenable to tackling climate-related health risks if the Senate confirms him as Trump’s Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services next year. “Some of the comments [Kennedy has] made I’m really optimistic about,” Amazon Pharmacy Chief Medical Officer Vin Gupta said while speaking at the Reuters NEXT conference in New York on Wednesday, adding that “the ways in which air and … dirty water” impact health are concerns that transcend party lines. Caroline Roan, the chief sustainability officer at Pfizer, who appeared on the same panel as Gupta, agreed. “We’re going to roll up our sleeves and we’re going to find common ground,” she said.
Separately this week, more than 75 Nobel laureates signed a letter saying that Kennedy would “put the public’s health in jeopardy” if he were confirmed to lead HHS.
200% — That’s the increase in dengue fever deaths in the Caribbean and the Americas this year compared to last. The jump in the mosquito-borne disease is “linked directly to climatic events” like warmer temperatures and flooding, according to Jarbas Barbosa, the director of the Pan American Health Organization.
Hurricane Beryl flooded Kingston, Jamaica this year. Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Obvious Ventures’ Andrew Beebe and Generate Capital’s Scott Jacobs reflect on the past, present, and future of climate tech.
Climate tech investors have a lot to take stock of at the end of 2024. The macroeconomic environment is shaky and investment in the space is down, but there’s plenty of cash reserves lying in wait. Artificial intelligence and its attendant data center power demand may or may not be the downfall of a future clean electric grid. And in case you missed it, Donald Trump was elected once more, this time drawing the world’s most successful — and notorious — climate tech CEO into his fold.
This week I spoke with two veterans of the industry about all these trends and more — Andrew Beebe, managing director of the venture capital firm Obvious Ventures, which has over $1 billion in assets under management, and Scott Jacobs, co-founder and CEO of the comparably huge sustainable infrastructure investment firm Generate Capital, which has raised over $10 billion to date. And while Beebe sounded jazzed about the year to come, Jacobs struck a more downbeat note as he delved into the difficult realities that climate companies are facing.
Beebe reflected positively on 2024 as a whole, though he is historically both an optimist and a contrarian. Venture funds spent this year accumulating capital, a.k.a. “dry powder,” although that doesn’t mean investment into climate tech companies has actually increased.
“Those investors are now going to be very prudent and judicious with their capital,” Beebe told me, emphasizing that we’re likely already seeing the impact of this circumspect approach. Climate tech investment has declined sharply from its peak in 2021 and 2022, when many experts believe the market was running too hot. Though he didn’t have the numbers on hand to back it up, Beebe told me he suspects investors are sitting on more cash now than they were three years ago.
Jacobs, on the other hand, sounded passionate but weary as he mulled over the past year. “This year is a lot like the 10 years we’ve been in business in many ways, which is tough,” he told me. Based on numbers alone, Generate had a successful 2024, raising $1.5 billion from institutional investors and $1.2 billion in flexible loans while making $2 billion in investments. But Jacobs emphasized that the type of flexible, large-scale infrastructure funding that Generate specializes in is always going to be a grind. As he explained to me, getting limited partners to invest in Generate for the long-haul has been a perpetual challenge and the capital costs of running the firm are high, thanks partly to the labor needs of operating and maintaining infrastructure projects.
Jacobs didn’t say this year was any more challenging than normal, simply that Generate’s fundamental model is an all-too-necessary but heavy lift. While a typical VC like Obvious might fund a series of early-stage companies in exchange for equity that could pay off big in a few years, Generate’s paradigm is much more hands on, as it involves owning and operating many of the projects it finances, raising so-called “permanent capital” from LPs that allows it to manage assets indefinitely, and deploying a variety of customized project financing options for its partners.
“I think we’re all very comfortable with the grittiness that is necessary to be sustainable infrastructure investors and operators, but it does tire you out,” Jacobs said. And he doesn’t see an end to the noble slog.
Ultimately though, Jacobs doesn’t think that Generate and its partners are particularly at risk in this uncertain political and economic moment. A policy outlook that the firm published last month stated, “We do not expect the funding environment for sustainable infrastructure projects to be imperiled now that the market is experiencing more headwinds. Rather, we anticipate a flight to quality.” But Jacobs is far more pessimistic about the rest of the climate tech ecosystem. Like many investors that I’ve talked with lately, Jacobs referenced a famous Warren Buffett quote to characterize this moment: “You don’t find out who’s been swimming naked until the tide goes out.”
With investors pulling back and startups taking longer to raise growth funding, Jacobs thinks lots of companies will soon find themselves exposed, even if they don’t know it yet. “I continue to be surprised by the optimism bias in our space,” he told me. While he understands that optimism is “inherent to survival” when standing up companies that aim to address the climate crisis, he thinks many of his peers are ignoring clear negative signals.
“It’s less about the election and more just about the last three years of performance and the last three years of capital flows,” Jacobs said. That is, while another Trump term will likely bode poorly for many startups and investors, climate tech companies are also facing a series of unrelated headwinds that have contributed to falling investment and fewer exit events, including inflation,high interest rates, geopolitical instability, and China’s flooding of the market with cheap tech.
“Northvolt’s bankruptcy, I think, is the first big shoe to drop,” Jacobs told me. “But there could be as many as a dozen more of those that are really high profile climate tech flame-outs that make it seem like we learned no lessons from the first big flame-out” of the early 2010s, of which Solyndra is the most infamous example. That bubble burst as investors failed to grasp the complexity and longer timelines associated with climate tech and backed technologies that lacked a clear path to commercial viability or profitability. This time around, Jacobs told me, “It’s going to be really hard to separate the signal from the noise. And the noise will be very negative.”
Beebe, unsurprisingly, had a more optimistic take on the year to come. As we chatted about how the Trump and Elon Musk duo is prioritizing (at least rhetorically) cutting through red tape to deploy energy projects more expeditiously, a potential upside of the new administration, Beebe jumped in with an even riskier prediction.
“I think that we will see a meaningful number of Republicans in the Senate and the House start to champion climate solutions and sort of attempt to make climate resiliency and fighting climate change more of a Republican issue,” he told me. Like many an optimist before him, Beebe cited the letter signed by 18 Republicans from the House of Representatives asking speaker Mike Johnson to preserve the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy tax credits as evidence that Republicans are getting on board with the energy transition, although a number of the signatories have since lost their jobs.
“Nixon created the EPA. Teddy Roosevelt was a real conservationist. They’re called the conservatives — they like to conserve things, including natural resources. And that has been a hallmark for at least a century — a century-and-a-half — of that party,” Beebe explained. When pro-Trump investors such as Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz use terms like “American dynamism,” what he hears “through the fog machines of those kinds of phrases” is a discussion about American competitiveness, which inherently includes a strong, sustainability-oriented energy policy.
Nuclear fission, in particular, looks like a prime target for investment, Beebe told me. He has been happily surprised to see the upswell in bipartisan support for the re-opening and buildout of new reactors, categorizing Microsoft’s effort to restart Three Mile Island as a “watershed event of 2024.” Now, Obvious is open to funding small modular reactors and next-generation nuclear fission tech, which it hadn’t considered before.
If you are feeling emotionally torn after all this, well, same. There were of course points of more neutral overlap between the two investors — both think the power demands of AI simultaneously pose a daunting challenge and a major opportunity to drive deployment of clean, firm energy, and both agree that the climate tech world will soldier on, buoyed by state and local support, regardless of what happens in the White House.
But ultimately, are we poised for a grueling year of climate tech contraction and insolvency? Or a year where investors wisely deploy capital in an environment of emerging bipartisan consensus? Perhaps some of both? As Jacobs told me, regardless of what investors think, the next year, four years, and beyond will be driven first and foremost by customer demand for decarbonization, resilience, and cost savings.
“That is what drives the transition. It’s not financiers who drive it. It’s not technologists who drive it. It’s not even policy makers who drive it. It’s people who want something, they have a problem to solve. And if we solve that problem for them, we tend to get paid.”