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On the Harris campaign, Hurricane Debby, and a hard emissions cap.
Current conditions:Cooler weekend weather helped fire crews working to contain the Park Fire, which has now burned an area larger than the city of Los Angeles • Two people were killed and 12 were missing after mudslides in China’s Sichuan province linked to record rainfall • Assuming you have clear skies, you should be able to catch the annual Perseid meteor shower, which peaks this week.
Hurricane Debby made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region this morning as a category 1 storm. It is expected to be extremely dangerous, not necessarily because of its wind speeds but because of the water it will dump over southeastern states in the coming days. Forecasters are warning of life-threatening storm surge, severe flash flooding, as well as strong winds. Up to 18 inches of rain could fall along the coast throughout the week, from Georgia through the Carolinas. If the storm stalls after it hits land, it is likely to strengthen and drop even more rain. Debby is the fourth named storm of the season and is making landfall in the same region Hurricane Idalia hit a year ago. Scientists agree climate change is heating the oceans, which is making tropical storms wetter and stronger.
Image: NOAA
Sometime today or tomorrow, Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to announce who she has tapped as her running mate in the 2024 presidential race. She spent the last few days speaking with some of the top contenders, including Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly. Here’s a look at their climate track records:
China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, plans to set a hard emissions cap. The move is seen as positive because it decouples emissions targets from economic growth. As Bloomberg explained, the country has so far measured its emissions against gross domestic product. “That approach has allowed China to tout environmental successes even as its total emissions soared, so long as they didn’t grow faster than the overall economy.” Under a new five-year plan that begins in 2026, the country will start to target overall emissions volumes and these will become the main measure after the country’s emissions peak, which could happen in 2030 or sooner.
In case you missed it: Japanese auto manufacturers Nissan, Honda, and Mitsubishi are teaming up to produce a new EV by 2030, in a bid to take on Tesla and Chinese carmakers. The companies will work together to develop new software and e-axles, and share battery supplies. “It’s another example of big, global automakers pooling their resources in the interest of defraying costs and finding more efficient ways to introduce new EVs to the marketplace,” wrote Andrew J. Hawkins at The Verge.
The New York Times over the weekend published a long feature on David Keith, a professor in the University of Chicago’s department of geophysical sciences and a longtime proponent of solar geoengineering. Keith makes his case for the contentious and still experimental idea of spraying sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere to lower global temperatures. He admits the process comes with risks, but says these are “quantitatively small compared to the benefits.” Yes, the practice could make twilight look different (more orange), but daylight would otherwise probably look the same.
The article quotes Frank Keutsch, one of Keith’s collaborators on a previous project, who compared solar geoengineering to opiates: “They only treat the symptom and not the actual cause,” Keutsch said. “You can get addicted to it if you don’t actually address the cause. In addition, like any painkiller, you’re going to have side effects. And then there are withdrawal symptoms, and that’s termination shock.”
In an office park in Florida, far from the ocean, Disney-funded scientists are working to preserve and restore the state’s brain corals. The process involves carefully calibrating water chemistry and lighting to mimic the environment off the Florida Keys, Inside Climate News reports.
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In the closing minutes of the first presidential debate tonight, Donald Trump’s attacks on Kamala Harris took an odd, highly specific, and highly Teutonic turn. It might not have made sense to many viewers, but it fit into the overall debate’s unusually substantive focus on energy policy.
“You believe in things that the American people don’t believe in,” he said, addressing Harris. “You believe in things like, we’re not gonna frack. We’re not gonna take fossil fuel. We’re not gonna do — things that are going to make this country strong, whether you like it or not.”
“Germany tried that and within one year, they were back to building normal energy plants,” he continued. “We’re not ready for it.”
What is he talking about? Let’s start by stipulating that Harris has renounced her previous support for banning fracking. During the debate, she bragged that the United States has hit an all-time high for oil and gas production during her vice presidency.
But why bring Germany into it? At the risk of sane-washing the former president, Trump appears to be referencing what German politicians call the Energiewiende, or energy turnaround. Since 2010, Germany has sought to transition from its largest historic energy sources, including coal and nuclear energy, to renewables and hydropower.
The Energiewiende is often discussed inside and outside of Germany as a climate policy, and it has helped achieve global climate goals by, say, helping to push down the global price of solar panels. But as an observant reader might have already noticed, its goals are not entirely emissions-related: Its leaders have also hoped to use the Energiewiende to phase out nuclear power, which is unpopular in Germany but which does not produce carbon emissions.
The transition has accomplished some of its goals: The country says that it is on target to meet its 2030 climate targets. But it ran into trouble after Russia invaded Ukraine, because Germany obtained more than half of its natural gas, and much of its oil and coal besides, from Russia. Germany turned back on some of its nuclear plants — it has since shut them off again — and increased its coal consumption. It also began importing fossil fuels from other countries.
In order to shore up its energy supply, Germany is also planning to build 10 gigawatts of new natural gas plants by 2030, although it says that these facilities will be “hydrogen ready,” meaning that they could theoretically run on the zero-carbon fuel hydrogen. German automakers, who have lagged at building electric vehicles, have also pushed for policies that support “e-fuels,” or low-carbon liquid fuels. These fuels would — again, theoretically — allow German firms to keep building internal combustion engines.
So perhaps that’s not exactly what Trump said, to put it mildly — but it is true that to cope with the Ukraine war and the loss of nuclear power, Germany has had to fall back on fossil fuels. Of course, at the same time, more than 30% of German electricity now comes from wind and solar energy. In other words, in Germany, renewables are just another kind of “normal energy plant.”
Hunter Biden also made an appearance in Trump’s answer to the debate’s one climate question.
Well, it happened — over an hour into the debate, but it happened: the presidential candidates were asked directly about climate change. ABC News anchor Linsey Davis put the question to Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, and their respective answers were both surprising and totally not.
Harris responded to the question by laying out the successes of Biden’s energy policy and in particular, the Inflation Reduction Act (though she didn’tmention it by name). “I am proud that as vice president, over the last four years, we have invested a trillion dollars in a clean energy economy,” Harris noted.
The vice president immediately followed this up, however, by pointing out that gas production has also increased to “historic levels,” under the Biden-Harris administration. This framing, highlighting an all-of-the-above approach to energy, is consistent with Harris’s comments earlier in the debate, whenshe claimed to support fracking and investing in “diverse sources of energy.” Harris went on to reiterate the biggest wins of the Inflation Reduction Act, namely, “800,000 new manufacturing jobs,” and shouted out her endorsement from the United Auto Workers and its President Shawn Fain.
Trump, who earlier in the debate called himself “a big fan of solar” before questioning the amount of land it takes up, started off his response by once again claiming that the Biden-Harris administration is building Chinese-owned EV plants in Mexico (they are not). Then Trump veered completely off topic and rounded out his answer by ranting about Biden (both Joe and Hunter). “You know, Biden doesn’t go after people because, supposedly, China paid him millions of dollars,” Trump noted. “He’s afraid to do it between him and his son, they get all this money from Ukraine.”
Trump’s answer included no reference to climate or clean energy — but it did include a shout out to “the mayor of Moscow’s wife,” so there’s that.
Is that a problem? Let’s do the math.
Former President Donald Trump has been warming up to the idea of electric vehicles in recent months, and he used the debate podium on Tuesday night to announce that “I’m a big fan of solar.” But don’t get too excited: He apparently can’t name three of their albums.
During a heated back-and-forth over Vice President Kamala Harris’ stance on fracking, Trump started to get worked up about what will happen if Democrats win the election. “They’ll go back to destroying our country and oil will be dead, fossil fuel will be dead,” he warned. “We’ll go back to windmills and we’ll go back to solar, where they need a whole desert to get some energy to come out. You ever see a solar plant?”
Trump went on: “By the way, I’m a big fan of solar, but they take 400, 500 acres of desert soil.”
Trump has a history of exaggeration, but this is neither particularly hyperbolic nor as concerning as Trump would have you believe. About 34,000 acres of public land are currently devoted to solar energy, and a common estimate is that the U.S. would need to expand solar to an additional 700,000 acres to meet 2035 renewable energy goals. That’s about 1,100 square miles, or 1,555 Trump-sized solar farms (or 0.031115% of the entire United States, per Clean Technica).
And while it’s true that most utility-scale solar photovoltaic facilities are only a handful of acres, it only takes about five to seven acres to generate a megawatt — so a project of Trump’s reckoning would generate about 65 megawatts, which, as Mads Rønne Almassalkhi, an associate professor of electrical and biomedical engineering at the University of Vermont, pointed out, isn’t all that shabby:
The U.S. government also recently determined that some 31 million acres of public land in just 11 states are not on “protected lands, sensitive cultural resources, and important wildlife habitat” and are close to transmission lines or “previously disturbed lands,” and therefore hypothetically suitable for solar development. To put it in simpler terms, solar takes up a fair bit of land but: Desert big.
To be sure, there are absolutely valid concerns and debates to be had over siting and the environmental impact of solar farms in America, regardless of how small their ultimate relative footprint will be. And Trump could have raised those arguments. But from what he showed us on Tuesday, he doesn’t make a very convincing fan.