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Politics

Manchin and Barrasso Just Released a Big Permitting Reform Bill

On early reactions to the legislation, AI weather forecasts, and bull sharks

Manchin and Barrasso Just Released a Big Permitting Reform Bill
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Taiwan is bracing for Typhoon Gaemi • A volcanic eruption from Mt. Etna closed Sicily’s Catania International Airport • Data suggests Sunday was the hottest day in Earth’s recorded history.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Manchin and Barrasso release bipartisan permitting reform legislation

Sens. Joe Manchin and John Barrasso released a permitting reform bill last night that “is expected to bolster the buildout of both renewable and fossil fuel energy sources,” as The Hill reported. The legislation would impose a timeline on legal challenges to federal authorizations for energy projects, require annual lease sales of both offshore wind and offshore oil through 2029, exclude some exploration activity for geothermal energy from environmental reviews, and scrap the Biden administration’s (now overturned) pause on approvals for liquefied natural gas export terminals by requiring the Department of Energy to decide on approving the terminals within 90 days. The bill also includes some longstanding Democratic and Republican ideas on environmental permitting, such as making permitting for renewables projects stand on a more equal footing with the relatively easy path for permitting oil and gas projects.

Reactions have so far been pretty mixed. Transmission company Grid United called the act “a significant bipartisan step forward in streamlining the permitting process for critical energy infrastructure projects,” and a “game changer for the U.S. electric grid.” Meanwhile the Center for Biological Diversity called it “the biggest giveaway in decades to the fossil fuel industry.”

Manchin and Barrasso are the chair and ranking member (respectively) of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. Manchin is an independent from West Virginia who caucuses with Democrats, while Barrasso is a Republican from Wyoming, both states with large fossil energy resources and industries.

2. NOAA teams up with United Airlines to measure GHGs with commercial airliner

The U.S. government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency is partnering with United Airlines to deploy a commercial airliner that monitors atmospheric greenhouse gases. The multi-year partnership will involve kitting out a Boeing 737 with equipment that can measure carbon dioxide, methane, and other warming gases to see if “a potential larger network” of commercial aircraft could be used to keep tabs on the atmosphere. NOAA already regularly measures air pollution by contracting with private pilots, but these missions are costly and their scope is restricted. “Installing instruments on airliners would vastly increase the number and distribution of samples that would be collected,” NOAA said.

3. Analysis: U.S. emissions falling, but not enough to meet 2030 Paris goals

The Rhodium Group think tank today published its annual report forecasting the trajectory of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions based on things like current policy, economic growth expectations, fossil fuel prices, and clean energy trends. It found that, by 2035, the U.S. will cut its emissions pretty significantly – between 38% and 56% – when compared to 2005 levels as abatement efforts grow. By 2030, Rhodium said emissions could fall by 43% compared to 2005, but this is still short of the 50% target under the Paris Agreement.

Rhodium Group

When looking at emissions by sector, the sharpest decline will be in the power sector, where emissions are expected to be at least 42% lower than current levels by 2035, and possibly up to 83% lower. Renewables could account for up to 88% of electricity generation that year, and unabated coal generation will be near zero, thanks largely to the Inflation Reduction Act’s subsidies and new power plant emission limits imposed by the Environmental Protection Agency. Transportation emissions will also fall significantly thanks to the EPA’s tailpipe rules. Industry is expected to become the biggest source of emissions in 2033 and will see just modest declines, most of which will be in oil and gas operations.

The group applauded this progress but said growing demand for electricity (especially from data centers) coupled with slow permitting, building, and grid interconnection for clean energy projects could put Paris targets even further out of reach.

4. Pentagon warns China and Russia are working together in melting Arctic

The Pentagon is growing increasingly concerned about cooperation between Russia and China in the Arctic. As the planet warms and the Arctic region thaws, the two nations have been collaborating to develop new shipping routes in a broader effort to exert global influence, Reuters reported. The Defense Department released a report yesterday on the issue, saying it will expand its surveillance in the area to improve national security and “ensure the Arctic does not become a strategic blind spot.” The Arctic is warming about four times faster than the rest of the planet.

5. Google AI weather tool could improve long-range forecasting

Google researchers have created an experimental weather-prediction tool called NeuralGCM that could open the door to the future of forecasting. The model combines the speed of artificial intelligence with the accuracy of conventional atmospheric forecasting to churn out quality weather predictions quickly and efficiently. According to a paper published in the journal Nature, this hybrid tool has proven to be faster than traditional forecasting tools, and more accurate than AI-only models at long-range weather predictions. Tools like NeuralGCM could provide a breakthrough in predicting large-scale climate events and extreme weather far in advance. Here’s a look at how the tool (blue line) performed in predicting global temperatures (orange line) between 1980 and 2020 compared to a traditional physics-based, atmosphere-only forecasting tool (red line):

Google

THE KICKER

Researchers say warming waters along the U.S. Gulf Coast are driving a fivefold increase in the number of baby bull sharks in the region’s estuaries.

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AM Briefing

New York Quits

On microreactor milestones, the Colorado River, and ‘crazy’ Europe

New York Abandons Its Fifth Offshore Wind Solicitation
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: A train of three storms is set to pummel Southern California with flooding rain and up to 9 inches mountain snow • Cyclone Gezani just killed at least four people in Mozambique after leaving close to 60 dead in Madagascar • Temperatures in the southern Indian state of Kerala are on track to eclipse 100 degrees Fahrenheit.


THE TOP FIVE

1. New York abandons its fifth offshore wind solicitation

What a difference two years makes. In April 2024, New York announced plans to open a fifth offshore wind solicitation, this time with a faster timeline and $200 million from the state to support the establishment of a turbine supply chain. Seven months later, at least four developers, including Germany’s RWE and the Danish wind giant Orsted, submitted bids. But as the Trump administration launched a war against offshore wind, developers withdrew their bids. On Friday, Albany formally canceled the auction. In a statement, the state government said the reversal was due to “federal actions disrupting the offshore wind market and instilling significant uncertainty into offshore wind project development.” That doesn’t mean offshore wind is kaput. As I wrote last week, Orsted’s projects are back on track after its most recent court victory against the White House’s stop-work orders. Equinor's Empire Wind, as Heatmap’s Jael Holzman wrote last month, is cruising to completion. If numbers developers shared with Canary Media are to be believed, the few offshore wind turbines already spinning on the East Coast actually churned out power more than half the time during the recent cold snap, reaching capacity factors typically associated with natural gas plants. That would be a big success. But that success may need the political winds to shift before it can be translated into more projects.

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Donald Trump and Lee Zeldin.
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President Trump has opened a new and aggressive war on the Environmental Protection Agency’s ability to limit climate pollution. Last week, the EPA formally repealed its scientific determination that greenhouse gases endanger human health and the environment.

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