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Climate

AM Briefing: BYD vs. Tesla

On quarterly EV sales, 2024 weather, and a darker shade of red

AM Briefing: BYD vs. Tesla
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: States in the Northeast are bracing for a major winter storm • Two months’ worth of rain fell in just three days in eastern Australia • Major floods brought parts of Saudi Arabia to a standstill.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Fewer cars eligible for 2024 EV tax credit

The number of electric vehicle models that are eligible for the government’s $7,500 tax credit has been more or less cut in half after new battery sourcing rules came into effect on January 1. Thirteen models now qualify, including the Tesla Model Y, the Chevy Bolt EV, and the Ford F-150 Lightning. Under the new rules, cars that use battery components made by Chinese manufacturers are disqualified, a move meant to wean the U.S. market off the Chinese supply chain. And the restrictions will become even tighter in 2025, targeting raw materials like lithium. U.S. automakers are working to expand their domestic manufacturing capabilities but this won’t happen overnight. In the meantime, propsective EV owners could consider leasing rather than buying, which will let you “skirt much of the red tape,” notes Heatmap’s Andrew Moseman.

2. BYD closes in on Tesla’s global EV lead

Tesla is expected to release its fourth quarter sales figures today and the big question is whether it will hold onto its position as the world’s top-selling EV maker. Yesterday Chinese automaker BYD announced it had sold 526,409 fully electric vehicles in the final three months of the year; analysts forecast Tesla’s sales to come in at around 483,200. BYD has been closing in on Tesla for a while, and if it takes the top spot, “it will be both a symbolic turning point for the EV market and further confirmation of China’s growing clout in the global automotive industry,” explains Bloomberg Green. Both BYD and Tesla are facing increasing competition from legacy automakers racing to catch up to their leads.

3. 2024 expected to bring more record-breaking weather

While 2023 was the hottest year ever recorded, experts predict 2024 will bring more extreme weather driven by a combination of man-made global warming and the El Niño weather pattern. The United Kingdom’s Met Office says the average global temperature for 2024 is forecast to be between 1.34 degrees and 1.58 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. “We expect two new global temperature record-breaking years in succession, and, for the first time, we are forecasting a reasonable chance of a year temporarily exceeding 1.5 °C,” says the Met Office’s Dr. Nick Dunstone.

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  • 4. ‘Warming stripes’ updated for 2023

    One of the researchers behind the iconic “warming stripes” – a visual representation of annual global temperatures over time – has updated the graphics to include 2023. Climate scientist Ed Hawkins says last year was so warm, he may need to update his color palette:

    X/ed_hawkins

    5. U.S. property catastrophe reinsurance rates jump 50%

    A rise in extreme weather and natural disasters in the U.S. is prompting a big hike in so-called reinsurance rates, which is likely to trickle down to propery insurance costs. As Reuters explains, “reinsurers provide insurance for insurers and the prices they agree at the beginning of each year set the trend for the cost of insurance for the next 12 months.” On January 1, U.S. property catastrophe reinsurance rates jumped by as much as 50% for policies that previously experienced natural disasters, according to broker Gallagher Re. The U.S. experienced at least 25 climate-related weather disasters with losses exceeding $1 billion last year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The annual average between 1980 and 2022 is about 8 events.

    THE KICKER

    “Solar is quietly eating the world. This is what an energy transition looks like.” –Eric Wesoff at Canary, on reasons to be optimistic about the energy transition


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    Q&A

    The Health Researcher Diving into Data Center Policy

    A conversation with Emma Uridge of the Kansas Health Institute.

    The Q&A subject.
    Heatmap Illustration

    This week’s conversation is with Emma Uridge, analyst with the Kansas Health Institute. Uridge spent copious hours analyzing state and local laws on data center development to best understand how policymakers are responding to the potential environmental public health impacts of large AI infrastructure, including power and water. The report, which came out this week, also goes in depth into those health impacts. I reached out to her to discuss what she sees as must-watch territory for our readers on this emerging policy arena.

    Our conversation was lightly edited for clarity.

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    Hotspots

    Anti-Solar Protests Are the Cool New Campaign Move in Wisconsin

    Plus more of the week’s big development fights.

    The United States.
    Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

    1. Laramie County, Wyoming — Meta is fighting the fine it received in the Cheyenne data center water pollution controversy, and the conflict between the tech giant and the city’s small board of public utilities is continuing to spill out into the public.

    • Meta this week appealed the $10,000 fine that the board of public utilities issued over a rare bacteria found in Cheyenne’s sewer system. Meta is contesting any responsibility for the contaminant, claiming the board should’ve fined the construction company Fortis instead. You can read the full appeal here.
    • Afterwards, the board publicly released hundreds of pages of emails revealing how and why government employees linked the bacteria to Meta, specifically, including that officials tied the bacteria’s presence to the usage of closed-loop cooling systems for data centers. The emails also show local officials knew the water pollution was linked to the data center months earlier than previously thought. All the emails are available here.
    • Meanwhile, Cheyenne residents are attempting a long-shot bid to undo the annexation for the Microsoft data center I told you about. It’s unlikely to succeed because petitioners need to get about 10% of the last election cycle’s voting population to sign within 20 days… which at more than 2,000 people sounds all but impossible without a massive grassroots campaign.

    2. Niagara County, New York — This county just rejected a solar project’s highway work permits in a show of retaliation against the state’s Office of Renewable Energy Siting.

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    Spotlight

    How the Trump Administration Turned a Solar Farm Into a Data Center

    The local government of Boulder City, Nevada had previously rejected a proposal for the computing facility, which would draw power from the existing electricity supply.

    Donald Trump and Nevada.
    Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

    The U.S. government for the first time approved a data center on federal lands. What the Trump administration is pitching as a demonstration of bureaucratic speed and ambition in the era of artificial intelligence, however, is turning into the same sort of mysterious backroom deal that’s upsetting other communities.

    On Monday, the Bureau of Land Management announced that it would allow a large AI data center to be built on a plot of federal land technically within the limits of Boulder City, Nevada. The approval was initially granted as a right-of-way in 2023 for the second phase of a solar project known as Townsite Solar, to be built by a joint venture between Skylar Opportunities LLC, a subsidiary of Houston energy trader Bill Perkins’ investment firm, and renewables developer Arevon. (Ironically, Perkins also just launched an ETF to profit from higher electricity demand.)

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