Current conditions: States in the Northeast are bracing for a major winter storm • Two months’ worth of rain fell in just three days in eastern Australia • Major floods brought parts of Saudi Arabia to a standstill.
THE TOP FIVE
1. Fewer cars eligible for 2024 EV tax credit
The number of electric vehicle models that are eligible for the government’s $7,500 tax credit has been more or less cut in half after new battery sourcing rules came into effect on January 1. Thirteen models now qualify, including the Tesla Model Y, the Chevy Bolt EV, and the Ford F-150 Lightning. Under the new rules, cars that use battery components made by Chinese manufacturers are disqualified, a move meant to wean the U.S. market off the Chinese supply chain. And the restrictions will become even tighter in 2025, targeting raw materials like lithium. U.S. automakers are working to expand their domestic manufacturing capabilities but this won’t happen overnight. In the meantime, propsective EV owners could consider leasing rather than buying, which will let you “skirt much of the red tape,” notesHeatmap’s Andrew Moseman.
2. BYD closes in on Tesla’s global EV lead
Tesla is expected to release its fourth quarter sales figures today and the big question is whether it will hold onto its position as the world’s top-selling EV maker. Yesterday Chinese automaker BYD announced it had sold 526,409 fully electric vehicles in the final three months of the year; analysts forecast Tesla’s sales to come in at around 483,200. BYD has been closing in on Tesla for a while, and if it takes the top spot, “it will be both a symbolic turning point for the EV market and further confirmation of China’s growing clout in the global automotive industry,” explainsBloomberg Green. Both BYD and Tesla are facing increasing competition from legacy automakers racing to catch up to their leads.
3. 2024 expected to bring more record-breaking weather
While 2023 was the hottest year ever recorded, experts predict 2024 will bring more extreme weather driven by a combination of man-made global warming and the El Niño weather pattern. The United Kingdom’s Met Office says the average global temperature for 2024 is forecast to be between 1.34 degrees and 1.58 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. “We expect two new global temperature record-breaking years in succession, and, for the first time, we are forecasting a reasonable chance of a year temporarily exceeding 1.5 °C,” says the Met Office’s Dr. Nick Dunstone.
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4. ‘Warming stripes’ updated for 2023
One of the researchers behind the iconic “warming stripes” – a visual representation of annual global temperatures over time – has updated the graphics to include 2023. Climate scientist Ed Hawkins says last year was so warm, he may need to update his color palette:
X/ed_hawkins
5. U.S. property catastrophe reinsurance rates jump 50%
A rise in extreme weather and natural disasters in the U.S. is prompting a big hike in so-called reinsurance rates, which is likely to trickle down to propery insurance costs. As Reutersexplains, “reinsurers provide insurance for insurers and the prices they agree at the beginning of each year set the trend for the cost of insurance for the next 12 months.” On January 1, U.S. property catastrophe reinsurance rates jumped by as much as 50% for policies that previously experienced natural disasters, according to broker Gallagher Re. The U.S. experienced at least 25 climate-related weather disasters with losses exceeding $1 billion last year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The annual average between 1980 and 2022 is about 8 events.
THE KICKER
“Solar is quietly eating the world. This is what an energy transition looks like.” –Eric Wesoff at Canary, on reasons to be optimistic about the energy transition
X/ed_hawkins
