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On striking down the California waiver, the tax bill, and BYD

Current conditions: Showers and thunderstorms in the South and cool weather in the Northeast will make Memorial Day weekend “more reminiscent of late March than late May” • At least four people are dead and 50,000 stranded in New South Wales, Australia, due to torrential rainfall that is expected to ease Friday evening • Evacuation orders are in place around Oracle, Arizona, to the north of Tucson, due to the growing Cody Fire.
It’s official: After weeks of speculation and run-up, the Senate voted 51 to 44 on Thursday to overturn California’s waiver from the Clean Air Act to set stricter-than-federal emissions limits on cars and trucks. The vote was along party lines, with the exception of Michigan Democrat Elissa Slotkin, who joined Republicans in passing the disapproval resolution under the Congressional Review Act. California required companies to stop selling new gas vehicles by 2035, which Republicans had criticized as an “electric vehicle mandate” due to the size of the state and its influence over the automotive market.
The Senate’s parliamentarian and the Government Accountability Office had determined that the Senate could not use the CRA to prevent California from setting stricter emissions standards, as it has done since 1967, because the waiver is not a federal rule and therefore not subject to a simple 50-vote threshold repeal vote. To get around the technicality, Republicans voted Wednesday night on what Rhode Island Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse called the “double nuclear option” — essentially declaring they were “within their rights to skirt a filibuster and muscle through measures to deny” California its unique emissions-setting authority, The New York Times writes. But that also means the door is now open “to challenges against all sorts of other federal program waivers — without having to worry about the Senate filibuster,” Capitol Hill correspondent Jamie Dupree wrote in his newsletter Thursday, adding, “it certainly is a substantial change in the precedents of the Senate. And now it’s the new regular order.” California Governor Gavin Newsom called the vote “illegal” and vowed to “fight this unconstitutional attack on California in court.”
We’re continuing to track the repercussions of the House reconciliation bill that passed early Thursday morning, including its “full-frontal assault on the residential solar business model,” in the words of my colleague Matthew Zeitlin. Though an earlier draft of the bill shortened the availability of the Residential Clean Energy Credit, 25D, for people who purchased home solar systems from 2034 to expiring at the end of this year, Matthew explains that the new language says no credit “shall be allowed under this section for any investment during the taxable year” if the entity claiming the tax credit “rents or leases such property to a third party during such taxable year” and “the lessee would qualify for a credit under section 25D with respect to such property if the lessee owned such property.” That’s “how you kill a business model in legislative text,” Matthew continues. The repercussions were immediate: By midday, shares of Sunrun were already down $37.5%, an erasure of almost $1 billion.
For the first time, BYD has outsold Tesla in Europe. In April, the Chinese automaker sold 7,231 electric vehicles, up 169% from the year prior, while Tesla sold 7,165 EVs, down 49% in the same period, Bloomberg reports based on market research by Jato Dynamics.
As we covered in AM earlier this month, the first quarter of 2025 was the second-best month ever for BEV sales in the European Union, despite “the name Tesla [becoming] toxic for so many, limiting its appeal,” Clean Technica wrote at the time. But while BYD marked a milestone in beating the American automaker, it remained in the 10th spot overall for electric vehicle sales, with Volkswagen the clear winner for the month with 23,514 sales. But BYD is “about to reinforce its EV lineup in Europe with the Dolphin Surf, a fully electric hatchback that will sell for” around $22,700 in Germany until the end of June, Bloomberg writes.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, with a higher estimated upper limit for named storms than earlier predictions from private forecasters. According to NOAA, we can expect between 13 and 19 named storms this year, of which six to 10 could become hurricanes and three to five could develop into major Category 3 or higher hurricanes. That puts the season on track to be more active than the average Atlantic hurricane season, when 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes can be expected.
Private forecasters also rely on NOAA data to inform their predictions, but arrived at slightly different conclusions. Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Sciences forecasts 17 named storms for 2025, while AccuWeather predicts 13 to 18 named storms. Though the Atlantic has cooled slightly from its historic highs last year, it is still warmer than usual — part of what is spurring the above-average estimates for the season. Still, as I’ve reported, there are lingering concerns about the reliability of NOAA’s data in future years as the agency hemorrhages the personnel who repair the sensors that monitor sea temperatures or run quality control on the data.
Microsoft announced its commitment to purchase nearly 623,000 metric tons of low-carbon cement from the startup Sublime Systems on Thursday. The contract, which runs over a six- to nine-year period, is intended to “reduce emissions — both at Microsoft and globally,” Jeff Leeper, the vice president of global datacenter construction at Microsoft, said in a press release about the deal. The company aims to use the cement on its construction projects “when geographically possible,” including incorporating it in data centers, office buildings, and other infrastructure. The companies declined to share how much the deal was worth, Bloomberg writes.
My colleague Emily Pontecorvo profiled Sublime earlier this year, noting that cement is a significant source of carbon emissions — 8% of the global total — due to a chemical reaction with limestone kilns required for production. But Sublime has “developed a new way to make reactive lime that does not require limestone,” Emily explains. “Instead of heating up rocks in a kiln, they drive the chemical process with electric currents. This enables the company to avoid limestone and use a variety of other raw materials that do not contain carbon to produce lime.” The company is working to construct its first 30,000-ton commercial plant, which is expected to be completed in 2027.
Pakistan imported 22 gigawatts of solar panels in 2024, more than the entire country of Canada. “That’s not a typo or a spreadsheet rounding error. That’s the kind of number that turns heads at IEA meetings and makes policy analysts double-check their databases,” Clean Technica writes.
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According to a new analysis shared exclusively with Heatmap, coal’s equipment-related outage rate is about twice as high as wind’s.
The Trump administration wants “beautiful clean coal” to return to its place of pride on the electric grid because, it says, wind and solar are just too unreliable. “If we want to keep the lights on and prevent blackouts from happening, then we need to keep our coal plants running. Affordable, reliable and secure energy sources are common sense,” Chris Wright said on X in July, in what has become a steady drumbeat from the administration that has sought to subsidize coal and put a regulatory straitjacket around solar and (especially) wind.
This has meant real money spent in support of existing coal plants. The administration’s emergency order to keep Michigan’s J.H. Campbell coal plant open (“to secure grid reliability”), for example, has cost ratepayers served by Michigan utility Consumers Energy some $80 million all on its own.
But … how reliable is coal, actually? According to an analysis by the Environmental Defense Fund of data from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, a nonprofit that oversees reliability standards for the grid, coal has the highest “equipment-related outage rate” — essentially, the percentage of time a generator isn’t working because of some kind of mechanical or other issue related to its physical structure — among coal, hydropower, natural gas, nuclear, and wind. Coal’s outage rate was over 12%. Wind’s was about 6.6%.
“When EDF’s team isolated just equipment-related outages, wind energy proved far more reliable than coal, which had the highest outage rate of any source NERC tracks,” EDF told me in an emailed statement.
Coal’s reliability has, in fact, been decreasing, Oliver Chapman, a research analyst at EDF, told me.
NERC has attributed this falling reliability to the changing role of coal in the energy system. Reliability “negatively correlates most strongly to capacity factor,” or how often the plant is running compared to its peak capacity. The data also “aligns with industry statements indicating that reduced investment in maintenance and abnormal cycling that are being adopted primarily in response to rapid changes in the resource mix are negatively impacting baseload coal unit performance.” In other words, coal is struggling to keep up with its changing role in the energy system. That’s due not just to the growth of solar and wind energy, which are inherently (but predictably) variable, but also to natural gas’s increasing prominence on the grid.
“When coal plants are having to be a bit more varied in their generation, we're seeing that wear and tear of those plants is increasing,” Chapman said. “The assumption is that that's only going to go up in future years.”
The issue for any plan to revitalize the coal industry, Chapman told me, is that the forces driving coal into this secondary role — namely the economics of running aging plants compared to natural gas and renewables — do not seem likely to reverse themselves any time soon.
Coal has been “sort of continuously pushed a bit more to the sidelines by renewables and natural gas being cheaper sources for utilities to generate their power. This increased marginalization is going to continue to lead to greater wear and tear on these plants,” Chapman said.
But with electricity demand increasing across the country, coal is being forced into a role that it might not be able to easily — or affordably — play, all while leading to more emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, particulate matter, mercury, and, of course, carbon dioxide.
The coal system has been beset by a number of high-profile outages recently, including at the largest new coal plant in the country, Sandy Creek in Texas, which could be offline until early 2027, according to the Texas energy market ERCOT and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
In at least one case, coal’s reliability issues were cited as a reason to keep another coal generating unit open past its planned retirement date.
Last month, Colorado Representative Will Hurd wrote a letter to the Department of Energy asking for emergency action to keep Unit 2 of the Comanche coal plant in Pueblo, Colorado open past its scheduled retirement at the end of his year. Hurd cited “mechanical and regulatory constraints” for the larger Unit 3 as a justification for keeping Unit 2 open, to fill in the generation gap left by the larger unit. In a filing by Xcel and several Colorado state energy officials also requesting delaying the retirement of Unit 2, they disclosed that the larger Unit 3 “experienced an unplanned outage and is offline through at least June 2026.”
Reliability issues aside, high electricity demand may turn into short-term profits at all levels of the coal industry, from the miners to the power plants.
At the same time the Trump administration is pushing coal plants to stay open past their scheduled retirement, the Energy Information Administration is forecasting that natural gas prices will continue to rise, which could lead to increased use of coal for electricity generation. The EIA forecasts that the 2025 average price of natural gas for power plants will rise 37% from 2024 levels.
Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights project “a continued rebound in thermal coal consumption throughout 2026 as thermal coal prices remain competitive with short-term natural gas prices encouraging gas-to-coal switching,” S&P coal analyst Wendy Schallom told me in an email.
“Stronger power demand, rising natural gas prices, delayed coal retirements, stockpiles trending lower, and strong thermal coal exports are vital to U.S. coal revival in 2025 and 2026.”
And we’re all going to be paying the price.
Rural Marylanders have asked for the president’s help to oppose the data center-related development — but so far they haven’t gotten it.
A transmission line in Maryland is pitting rural conservatives against Big Tech in a way that highlights the growing political sensitivities of the data center backlash. Opponents of the project want President Trump to intervene, but they’re worried he’ll ignore them — or even side with the data center developers.
The Piedmont Reliability Project would connect the Peach Bottom nuclear plant in southern Pennsylvania to electricity customers in northern Virginia, i.e.data centers, most likely. To get from A to B, the power line would have to criss-cross agricultural lands between Baltimore, Maryland and the Washington D.C. area.
As we chronicle time and time again in The Fight, residents in farming communities are fighting back aggressively – protesting, petitioning, suing and yelling loudly. Things have gotten so tense that some are refusing to let representatives for Piedmont’s developer, PSEG, onto their properties, and a court battle is currently underway over giving the company federal marshal protection amid threats from landowners.
Exacerbating the situation is a quirk we don’t often deal with in The Fight. Unlike energy generation projects, which are usually subject to local review, transmission sits entirely under the purview of Maryland’s Public Service Commission, a five-member board consisting entirely of Democrats appointed by current Governor Wes Moore – a rumored candidate for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. It’s going to be months before the PSC formally considers the Piedmont project, and it likely won’t issue a decision until 2027 – a date convenient for Moore, as it’s right after he’s up for re-election. Moore last month expressed “concerns” about the project’s development process, but has brushed aside calls to take a personal position on whether it should ultimately be built.
Enter a potential Trump card that could force Moore’s hand. In early October, commissioners and state legislators representing Carroll County – one of the farm-heavy counties in Piedmont’s path – sent Trump a letter requesting that he intervene in the case before the commission. The letter followed previous examples of Trump coming in to kill planned projects, including the Grain Belt Express transmission line and a Tennessee Valley Authority gas plant in Tennessee that was relocated after lobbying from a country rock musician.
One of the letter’s lead signatories was Kenneth Kiler, president of the Carroll County Board of Commissioners, who told me this lobbying effort will soon expand beyond Trump to the Agriculture and Energy Departments. He’s hoping regulators weigh in before PJM, the regional grid operator overseeing Mid-Atlantic states. “We’re hoping they go to PJM and say, ‘You’re supposed to be managing the grid, and if you were properly managing the grid you wouldn’t need to build a transmission line through a state you’re not giving power to.’”
Part of the reason why these efforts are expanding, though, is that it’s been more than a month since they sent their letter, and they’ve heard nothing but radio silence from the White House.
“My worry is that I think President Trump likes and sees the need for data centers. They take a lot of water and a lot of electric [power],” Kiler, a Republican, told me in an interview. “He’s conservative, he values property rights, but I’m not sure that he’s not wanting data centers so badly that he feels this request is justified.”
Kiler told me the plan to kill the transmission line centers hinges on delaying development long enough that interest rates, inflation and rising demand for electricity make it too painful and inconvenient to build it through his resentful community. It’s easy to believe the federal government flexing its muscle here would help with that, either by drawing out the decision-making or employing some other as yet unforeseen stall tactic. “That’s why we’re doing this second letter to the Secretary of Agriculture and Secretary of Energy asking them for help. I think they may be more sympathetic than the president,” Kiler said.
At the moment, Kiler thinks the odds of Piedmont’s construction come down to a coin flip – 50-50. “They’re running straight through us for data centers. We want this project stopped, and we’ll fight as well as we can, but it just seems like ultimately they’re going to do it,” he confessed to me.
Thus is the predicament of the rural Marylander. On the one hand, Kiler’s situation represents a great opportunity for a GOP president to come in and stand with his base against a would-be presidential candidate. On the other, data center development and artificial intelligence represent one of the president’s few economic bright spots, and he has dedicated copious policy attention to expanding growth in this precise avenue of the tech sector. It’s hard to imagine something less “energy dominance” than killing a transmission line.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
Plus more of the week’s most important fights around renewable energy.
1. Wayne County, Nebraska – The Trump administration fined Orsted during the government shutdown for allegedly killing bald eagles at two of its wind projects, the first indications of financial penalties for energy companies under Trump’s wind industry crackdown.
2. Ocean County, New Jersey – Speaking of wind, I broke news earlier this week that one of the nation’s largest renewable energy projects is now deceased: the Leading Light offshore wind project.
3. Dane County, Wisconsin – The fight over a ginormous data center development out here is turning into perhaps one of the nation’s most important local conflicts over AI and land use.
4. Hardeman County, Texas – It’s not all bad news today for renewable energy – because it never really is.