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On the start of a new season, Mississippi’s wind farm, and Stonehenge
Current conditions: A dust storm is headed for New Mexico • Torrential rains flooded the French city of Nantes • Tourists are being turned away in Sicily due to water shortages and extreme heat.
The U.S. (along with the rest of the world) is experiencing a bunch of different extreme weather events all at the same time: an early and unusually long heat wave through the Midwest and East Coast, a tropical storm and the potential for 20 inches of rain in Texas, massive wildfires in New Mexico followed almost immediately by heavy rain and flash flooding, late-season snowfall in the Rockies. Oh and don’t forget that last week parts of Florida were under two feet of water. Almost every corner of the country has been subjected to some kind of weather-related threat in recent days. Of course, America is a big place, with lots of different landscapes and microclimates, and pinpointing the exact role climate change plays in extreme weather events can be hard. But there’s just no denying that things feel … strange. And, as I seem to keep hearing, “it’s only June!”
Flooding in Surfside Beach, Texas, from Tropical Storm Alberto.Brandon Bell/Getty Images
Today marks the summer solstice, the longest day of the year here in the Northern Hemisphere and the official start of summer 2024. With global temperatures still at record highs, what we’re experiencing now is probably just a preview of what’s to come in the following months and years. “These days I think it’s much more appropriate to call it ‘global weirding’” than global warming, climate professor Katharine Hayhoe told Bloomberg. “Wherever we live, our weather is getting much weirder.”
The warm temperatures across the U.S. are driving up power generation and putting a strain on the grid. Natural gas-fired power generation is up 6% so far this year compared to 2023, and in fact is at its highest since 2021, Reutersreported. While clean power output is also set to rise, natural gas is expected to remain the top fuel source in the U.S. “In turn, U.S. power sector emissions from gas use will likely also climb to new highs in 2024, potentially accelerating the climate warming trends that are fuelling increased higher gas demand in the first place,” Reuters added. The heat wave sweeping east prompted New England’s power grid operator to declare a level 1 emergency this week, and briefly pushed electricity prices up near $2,000 per megawatt-hour, “more than 10 times the day-ahead cost for the hour,” Bloombergreported. Back-up oil generation came online Tuesday.
Global fossil fuel use hit a record high last year as energy consumption rose, according to a report from the Energy Institute. Coal demand rose, oil consumption “rebounded strongly” after a pandemic dip, and crude oil consumption exceeded 100 million barrels per day for the first time ever. As a result, greenhouse gas emissions increased 2.1% and broke the record set the year before. Emissions from energy have increased by 50% since the year 2000, the report found. At the same time, renewable power generation reached a record high last year and accounted for about 15% of the global energy mix, and fossil fuel consumption for energy dropped ever so slightly (by 0.4%). The report sheds light on huge regional contrasts: “In advanced economies, we observe signs of demand for fossil fuels peaking, contrasting with economies in the Global South for whom economic development and improvements in quality of life continue to drive fossil growth,” Energy Institute Chief Executive Nick Wayth said.
Mississippi’s first utility-scale wind farm got up and running this week, marking a point of progress in the Southeast, where “wind energy development has long been stuck in the doldrums,” said Maria Gallucci at Canary Media. The 184-megawatt Delta Wind farm will provide power to Amazon for its regional data centers. One interesting detail is that this farm features some of the tallest onshore turbines in the country, manufactured to make the most out of the top wind speeds. Developers hope this will be “a catalyst for accelerated renewable energy and economic development throughout the South.”
Activists from Just Stop Oil sprayed parts of the ancient Stonehenge monument with orange cornflour powder yesterday and called for an end to new fossil fuel use and extraction. Their actions were immediately and widely condemned and have sparked a national conversation about just how far climate protesters should go for their cause. The group said the powder will wash away with the rain, “but the urgent need for effective government action to mitigate the catastrophic consequences of the climate and ecological crisis will not.” This morning the group also spray painted private jets at a London airport.
Meanwhile, also in the UK, the Supreme Court there today ruled that, before new oil drilling projects can commence, companies must disclose and consider the environmental impacts of the resulting emissions. The decision “could put future UK oil and gas projects in question,” reported the BBC.
A new UN climate survey covering more than 70 countries representing most of the global population found that 80% of people worldwide want their governments to do more to address the climate crisis.
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Plus 3 more outstanding questions about this ongoing emergency.
As Los Angeles continued to battle multiple big blazes ripping through some of the most beloved (and expensive) areas of the city on Thursday, a question lingered in the background: What caused the fires in the first place?
Though fires are less common in California during this time of the year, they aren’t unheard of. In early December 2017, power lines sparked the Thomas Fire near Ventura, California, which burned through to mid-January. At the time it was the largest fire in the state since at least the 1930s. Now it’s the ninth-largest. Although that fire was in a more rural area, it ignited for many of the same reasons we’re seeing fires this week.
Read on for everything we know so far about how the fires started.
Five major fires started during the Santa Ana wind event this week:
Officials have not made any statements about the cause of any of the fires yet.
On Thursday morning, Edward Nordskog, a retired fire investigator from the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department, told me it was unlikely they had even begun looking into the root of the biggest and most destructive of the fires in the Pacific Palisades. “They don't start an investigation until it's safe to go into the area where the fire started, and it just hasn't been safe until probably today,” he said.
It can take years to determine the cause of a fire. Investigators did not pinpoint the cause of the Thomas Fire until March 2019, more than two years after it started.
But Nordskog doesn’t think it will take very long this time. It’s easier to narrow down the possibilities for an urban fire because there are typically both witnesses and surveillance footage, he told me. He said the most common causes of wildfires in Los Angeles are power lines and those started by unhoused people. They can also be caused by sparks from vehicles or equipment.
At about 27,000 acres burned, these fires are unlikely to make the charts for the largest in California history. But because they are burning in urban, densely populated, and expensive areas, they could be some of the most devastating. With an estimated 2,000 structures damaged so far, the Eaton and Palisades fires are likely to make the list for most destructive wildfire events in the state.
And they will certainly be at the top for costliest. The Palisades Fire has already been declared a likely contender for the most expensive wildfire in U.S. history. It has destroyed more than 1,000 structures in some of the most expensive zip codes in the country. Between that and the Eaton Fire, Accuweather estimates the damages could reach $57 billion.
While we don’t know the root causes of the ignitions, several factors came together to create perfect fire conditions in Southern California this week.
First, there’s the Santa Ana winds, an annual phenomenon in Southern California, when very dry, high-pressure air gets trapped in the Great Basin and begins escaping westward through mountain passes to lower-pressure areas along the coast. Most of the time, the wind in Los Angeles blows eastward from the ocean, but during a Santa Ana event, it changes direction, picking up speed as it rushes toward the sea.
Jon Keeley, a research scientist with the US Geological Survey and an adjunct professor at the University of California, Los Angeles told me that Santa Ana winds typically blow at maybe 30 to 40 miles per hour, while the winds this week hit upwards of 60 to 70 miles per hour. “More severe than is normal, but not unique,” he said. “We had similar severe winds in 2017 with the Thomas Fire.”
Second, Southern California is currently in the midst of extreme drought. Winter is typically a rainier season, but Los Angeles has seen less than half an inch of rain since July. That means that all the shrubland vegetation in the area is bone-dry. Again, Keeley said, this was not usual, but not unique. Some years are drier than others.
These fires were also not a question of fuel management, Keeley told me. “The fuels are not really the issue in these big fires. It's the extreme winds,” he said. “You can do prescription burning in chaparral and have essentially no impact on Santa Ana wind-driven fires.” As far as he can tell, based on information from CalFire, the Eaton Fire started on an urban street.
While it’s likely that climate change played a role in amplifying the drought, it’s hard to say how big a factor it was. Patrick Brown, a climate scientist at the Breakthrough Institute and adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University, published a long post on X outlining the factors contributing to the fires, including a chart of historic rainfall during the winter in Los Angeles that shows oscillations between very wet and very dry years over the past eight decades. But climate change is expected to make dry years drier in Los Angeles. “The LA area is about 3°C warmer than it would be in preindustrial conditions, which (all else being equal) works to dry fuels and makes fires more intense,” Brown wrote.
And more of this week’s top renewable energy fights across the country.
1. Otsego County, Michigan – The Mitten State is proving just how hard it can be to build a solar project in wooded areas. Especially once Fox News gets involved.
2. Atlantic County, New Jersey – Opponents of offshore wind in Atlantic City are trying to undo an ordinance allowing construction of transmission cables that would connect the Atlantic Shores offshore wind project to the grid.
3. Benton County, Washington – Sorry Scout Clean Energy, but the Yakima Nation is coming for Horse Heaven.
Here’s what else we’re watching right now…
In Connecticut, officials have withdrawn from Vineyard Wind 2 — leading to the project being indefinitely shelved.
In Indiana, Invenergy just got a rejection from Marshall County for special use of agricultural lands.
In Kansas, residents in Dickinson County are filing legal action against county commissioners who approved Enel’s Hope Ridge wind project.
In Kentucky, a solar project was actually approved for once – this time for the East Kentucky Power Cooperative.
In North Carolina, Davidson County is getting a solar moratorium.
In Pennsylvania, the town of Unity rejected a solar project. Elsewhere in the state, the developer of the Newton 1 solar project is appealing their denial.
In South Carolina, a state appeals court has upheld the rejection of a 2,300 acre solar project proposed by Coastal Pine Solar.
In Washington State, Yakima County looks like it’ll keep its solar moratorium in place.
And more of this week’s top policy news around renewables.
1. Trump’s Big Promise – Our nation’s incoming president is now saying he’ll ban all wind projects on Day 1, an expansion of his previous promise to stop only offshore wind.
2. The Big Nuclear Lawsuit – Texas and Utah are suing to kill the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s authority to license small modular reactors.
3. Biden’s parting words – The Biden administration has finished its long-awaited guidance for the IRA’s tech-neutral electricity credit (which barely changed) and hydrogen production credit.