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On linger heat waves, Ford’s big decision, and carbon credits
Current conditions: The remnants of Hurricane Ernesto are headed toward Scotland • Unusually warm winter weather is raising wildfire risks in Australia • An August cold snap could bring snow to California’s Sierra Nevada this weekend.
Heat advisories remain in effect across most of the state of Texas. The National Weather service says “numerous new records” are being set as temperatures climb into the triple digits. Climatologist Maximiliano Herrera counted at least four new monthly heat records in various cities, and one all-time high of 113 degrees Fahrenheit in Abilene:
The heat dome is expected to linger through the end of the week before things cool down slightly over the weekend. The heat will then move north, bringing some weather whiplash to the currently-cool Midwest and raising temperatures by up to 30 degrees by early next week.
Yesterday Ford announced it is canceling its much-anticipated three-row EV crossover and producing it only as a hybrid, and delaying the release of a new medium-sized electric pickup truck to 2027. The moves deal a substantial blow to the company’s future EV offerings and mean “the North American car market may not see the explosive growth of EV options — the kind of efflorescence already happening in Europe and China — until the end of this decade,” said Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer.
U.S. sales of electric vehicles actually reached a record high in the second quarter of 2024, hitting 330,463. That’s a 11.3% rise year-over-year, and a 23% jump compared to the first quarter. Ford’s quarterly EV sales were up 61% year-over-year. “The growth will, at times, be very slow, as all-time horizons in the automobile business are vast, but the long-term trajectory suggests that higher volumes of EVs will continue over time,” said Cox Automotive Industry Insights Director Stephanie Valdez Streaty. “As EV infrastructure and technology improve, and more models are launched, many shoppers sitting on the fence will eventually choose an EV.”
Tensions were a little bit heightened at the Democratic National Convention yesterday after climate activists infiltrated an event hosted by Punchbowl News that featured conversations sponsored by fossil fuel giant Exxon Mobil. The activists chanted “Exxon lies, people die” before being removed. Climate groups including Friends of the Earth, Climate Hawks Vote, and Oil Change U.S. released a statement slamming the event and warning that Big Oil is trying to “shape the policies of the Democratic Party.”
A new study published in the journal Global Change Biology warns that Antarctica’s ecosystems may be at risk of contamination from man-made pollution and non-native species that float down from places like Australia, South Africa, and South America. The problem is made worse by the shrinking sea ice, which acts as a barrier. “If the recent decline in Antarctic sea ice continues, then living things floating at the surface, or attached to floating objects, could have an easier time colonizing the continent, which may have big impacts on ecosystems,” said Dr. Hannah Dawson, who led the study as part of her PhD at UNSW Sydney.
Carbon removal registry Isometric today announced its first verified delivery of CO2 removal credits to companies including JPMorganChase, Stripe, and Shopify, which were purchased through bio-oil sequestration firm Charm Industrial. Isometric aims to “raise the bar for quality in carbon markets” by using robust monitoring, reporting, and verification measures to certify the credits after the carbon has been removed, rather than before. The verification is paid for by buyers instead of suppliers to avoid conflicts of interest. Buyers pay Isometric a flat fee, “ensuring one credit is always equal to one tonne of carbon dioxide durably removed from the atmosphere.”
Renewables now make up 30% of total U.S. power generating capacity, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
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Almost half of developers believe it is “somewhat or significantly harder to do” projects on farmland, despite the clear advantages that kind of property has for harnessing solar power.
The solar energy industry has a big farm problem cropping up. And if it isn’t careful, it’ll be dealing with it for years to come.
Researchers at SI2, an independent research arm of the Solar Energy Industries Association, released a study of farm workers and solar developers this morning that said almost half of all developers believe it is “somewhat or significantly harder to do” projects on farmland, despite the clear advantages that kind of property has for harnessing solar power.
Unveiled in conjunction with RE+, the largest renewable energy conference in the U.S., the federally-funded research includes a warning sign that permitting is far and away the single largest impediment for solar developers trying to build projects on farmland. If this trend continues or metastasizes into a national movement, it could indefinitely lock developers out from some of the nation’s best land for generating carbon-free electricity.
“If a significant minority opposes and perhaps leads to additional moratoria, [developers] will lose a foot in the door for any future projects,” Shawn Rumery, SI2’s senior program director and the survey lead, told me. “They may not have access to that community any more because that moratoria is in place.”
SI2’s research comes on the heels of similar findings from Heatmap Pro. A poll conducted for the platform last month found 70% of respondents who had more than 50 acres of property — i.e. the kinds of large landowners sought after by energy developers — are concerned that renewable energy “takes up farmland,” by far the greatest objection among that cohort.
Good farmland is theoretically perfect for building solar farms. What could be better for powering homes than the same strong sunlight that helps grow fields of yummy corn, beans and vegetables? And there’s a clear financial incentive for farmers to get in on the solar industry, not just because of the potential cash in letting developers use their acres but also the longer-term risks climate change and extreme weather can pose to agriculture writ large.
But not all farmers are warming up to solar power, leading towns and counties across the country to enact moratoria restricting or banning solar and wind development on and near “prime farmland.” Meanwhile at the federal level, Republicans and Democrats alike are voicing concern about taking farmland for crop production to generate renewable energy.
Seeking to best understand this phenomena, SI2 put out a call out for ag industry representatives and solar developers to tell them how they feel about these two industries co-mingling. They received 355 responses of varying detail over roughly three months earlier this year, including 163 responses from agriculture workers, 170 from solar developers as well as almost two dozen individuals in the utility sector.
A key hurdle to development, per the survey, is local opposition in farm communities. SI2’s publicity announcement for the research focuses on a hopeful statistic: up to 70% of farmers surveyed said they were “open to large-scale solar.” But for many, that was only under certain conditions that allow for dual usage of the land or agrivoltaics. In other words, they’d want to be able to keep raising livestock, a practice known as solar grazing, or planting crops unimpeded by the solar panels.
The remaining percentage of farmers surveyed “consistently opposed large-scale solar under any condition,” the survey found.
“Some of the messages we got were over my dead body,” Rumery said.
Meanwhile a “non-trivial” number of solar developers reported being unwilling or disinterested in adopting the solar-ag overlap that farmers want due to the increased cost, Rumery said. While some companies expect large portions of their business to be on farmland in the future, and many who responded to the survey expect to use agrivoltaic designs, Rumery voiced concern at the percentage of companies unwilling to integrate simultaneous agrarian activities into their planning.
In fact, Rumery said some developers’ reticence is part of what drove him and his colleagues to release the survey while at RE+.
As we discussed last week, failing to address the concerns of local communities can lead to unintended consequences with industry-wide ramifications. Rumery said developers trying to build on farmland should consider adopting dual-use strategies and focus on community engagement and education to avoid triggering future moratoria.
“One of the open-ended responses that best encapsulated the problem was a developer who said until the cost of permitting is so high that it forces us to do this, we’re going to continue to develop projects as they are,” he said. “That’s a cold way to look at it.”
Meanwhile, who is driving opposition to solar and other projects on farmland? Are many small farm owners in rural communities really against renewables? Is the fossil fuel lobby colluding with Big Ag? Could building these projects on fertile soil really impede future prospects at crop yields?
These are big questions we’ll be tackling in far more depth in next week’s edition of The Fight. Trust me, the answers will surprise you.
Here are the most notable renewable energy conflicts over the past week.
1. Worcester County, Maryland –Ocean City is preparing to go to court “if necessary” to undo the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management’s approval last week of U.S. Wind’s Maryland Offshore Wind Project, town mayor Rick Meehan told me in a statement this week.
2. Magic Valley, Idaho – The Lava Ridge Wind Project would be Idaho’s biggest wind farm. But it’s facing public outcry over the impacts it could have on a historic site for remembering the impact of World War II on Japanese residents in the United States.
3. Kossuth County, Iowa – Iowa’s largest county – Kossuth – is in the process of approving a nine-month moratorium on large-scale solar development.
Here’s a few more hotspots I’m watching…
The most important renewable energy policies and decisions from the last few days.
Greenlink’s good day – The Interior Department has approved NV Energy’s Greenlink West power line in Nevada, a massive step forward for the Biden administration’s pursuit of more transmission.
States’ offshore muddle – We saw a lot of state-level offshore wind movement this past week… and it wasn’t entirely positive. All of this bodes poorly for odds of a kumbaya political moment to the industry’s benefit any time soon.
Chumash loophole – Offshore wind did notch one win in northern California by securing an industry exception in a large marine sanctuary, providing for farms to be built in a corridor of the coastline.
Here’s what else I’m watching …