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About 20% of U.S. coal exports flow through the port.
The Port of Baltimore — currently closed to container traffic thanks to the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge early Tuesday morning — plays a pivotal role in the energy trade, but not for anything that the Biden administration would like to talk about. It’s not some major nexus for clean energy components (although many cars go in and out of it), or even the liquefied natural gas that the U.S. proudly ships to Europe (that’s about 80 miles south at the Cove Point in Lusby, Maryland).
Instead, what’s flowing through Baltimore is coal.
The Port of Baltimore is the second largest coal export facility in the U.S. About 20% of U.S. the country’s coal exports ran through the port in 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration. In the first nine months of 2023, the most recent period for which data is available, about 20 million short tons of coal traveled through the port, a 20% jump from the same period in 2022. (At the Port of Virginia, about 150 nautical miles to the south, that figure was 26 million short tons, up just 6% from the beginning of 2022.)
U.S. coal largely went to Europe and Asia, with big jumps in exports to Indonesia and Vietnam. The biggest recipients of U.S. coal are India, South Korea, China, and the Netherlands, where coal is shipped for transport across Europe.
The projected block up of coal exports could last more than a month, one coal shipping executive told Bloomberg. While it’s still unknown exactly how long the port will be closed to container traffic, the effect of the collapse is already visible in the stock prices of coal companies that use the port.
Shares of Consol Energy, for instance, which ships more than 10 million tons of coal annually through a terminal at the Port of Baltimore, are down 7% for the day. Consol’s coal comes from mines in southeastern Pennsylvania and southern West Virginia, where it’s then shipped by rail to Baltimore. Shares of one rail company that services the terminal, Norfolk Southern, dipped in early trading Tuesday but were flat Tuesday afternoon, while shares in CSX, the other rail company that serves Consol’s terminal, were down 2%.
“We do not have a definitive timeline of when vessel access or normal operations will resume,” Consol said in a statement Tuesday. “We are looking at all available options to us to minimize or address direct and indirect impacts to the Company and its operations.”
In terms of its effects on the overall energy market, the port’s indefinite closure could be mild and may actually result in lower energy prices in the Northeast, as coal that would have been exported becomes, essentially, stranded stateside, Greg Brew, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, told me. But even this effect may be muted, Brew explained, because the weather is warming up with the end of winter, meaning there’s less demand on natural gas for heating.
“That can’t be too affected by more cheap coal sitting around,” Brew said.
The port is also a major throughway for imports and exports of cars, with around 750,000 cars going through it. GM and Ford said that they were diverting shipments around the port.
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There were a lot of tariff losers, but only one tariff winner.
The U.S. stock market has taken its worst hit this week since March 2020, with the S&P 500 falling over 10% in just two days, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 22% from its all-time high in December. The tremendous decline in stock values is a reflection of Donald Trump’s chaotic attempt at reordering the global economy, wrenching America’s average effective tariff rate to the highest level since 1909 — four years before the establishment of the federal income tax.
The clean energy economy has not been spared, although the effect has hardly been uniform. Some of the highest flying companies of 2024 and early this year — think Tesla or anyone selling power to a data center — have been some of the hardest hit, while some companies closer to the residential solar market have held their own.
Here’s a look at how some of these companies have performed over the past two days:
President Donald Trump has exempted some — but certainly not all — of the critical minerals necessary for the energy transition from the sweeping tariffs he announced Wednesday. Minerals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and copper are key components of clean energy infrastructure such as lithium-ion batteries, which are used in electric vehicles or stationary storage, and copper wires, which conduct electricity in solar panels and wind turbines.
The White House has published a complete list of hundreds of products that are exempt from tariffs. We combed through the list looking for key transition minerals. Here are the ones that caught our eye, plus some that were notably left off. If you see anything on the list you think we missed, my inbox is open.
Just about every other renewable energy company is taking a beating today.
American solar manufacturer First Solar may be the big winner from the slew of tariffs Donald Trump announced yesterday against the world’s trading partners. Sorry, make that basically the only winner among renewable energy companies.
In a note to clients this morning, Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith wrote that “in this inflationary environment, we expect FSLR's domestic manufacturing to be the clear winner” in the long term.
For everyone else in the renewable industry — for example, an equipment manufacturer like inverter company Enphase, which has been trying to move its activities away from China — “we perceive all costs to head higher, contributing to a wider inflation narrative.”
First Solar’s’s stock is up almost 4% in early trading as the broader market reels from the global tariffs. Throughout the rest of the solar ecosystem, there’s a sea of red. Enphase is down almost 8%. Chinese inverter manufacturer Sungrow is down 7%. Solar installer Sunrun’s shares are down over 10%. The whole S&P 500 is down 4%, while independent power producers such as Vistra and Constellation and turbine manufacturer GE Vernova are down around 10% as expected power demand has fallen.
First Solar “is currently the largest domestic manufacturer of solar panels and is in the midst of expanding its domestic manufacturing footprint, which should serve as a competitive advantage over its peers,” Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Perocco wrote in a note to clients Thursday morning.
Nor has First Solar been afraid to fight for its position in the global economy. It ispart of a coalition of American solar manufacturers that have been demanding protections against Southeast Asian solar exporters, claiming that they are part of a scheme by Chinese companies to avoid preexisting solar tariffs. In 2023,80% of American solar imports came from Southeast Asia, according to Reuters.
Tariff rates specific to solar components manufactured in those countries will likely be finalized later this month. Those will come in addition to the new tariffs, which will go into effect on April 9.
But the biggest question about First Solar — and the American renewables industry as a whole — remains unanswered: the fate of the Inflation Reduction Act. The company benefits both from tax credits for advanced manufacturing and investment and production tax credits for solar power.
“Government incentive programs, such as the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (the “IRA”), have contributed to this momentum by providing solar module manufacturers, project developers, and project owners with various incentives to accelerate the deployment of solar power generation,” the company wrote in a recent securities filing.
If those tax credits are at risk, then First Solar may not be a winner so much as the fastest runner ahead of an advancing tide.