Sign In or Create an Account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy

Podcast

Have China’s Emissions Already Peaked?

Rob and Jesse talk all things solar, steel, and cement with CREA’s Lauri Myllyvirta.

Solar panels in China.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

China’s greenhouse gas emissions were essentially flat this year — or they recorded a tiny increase, according to a recent report from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, or CREA. A third of experts surveyed by the report believe that its coal emissions have peaked. Has the world’s No. 1 emitter of carbon pollution now turned a corner on climate change?

Lauri Myllyvirta is the co-founder and lead analyst at CREA, an independent research organization focused on air pollution and headquartered in Finland. Myllyvirta has worked on climate policy, pollution, and energy issues in Asia for the past decade, and he lived in Beijing from 2015 to 2019.

On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse talk with Lauri about whether China’s emissions have peaked, why the country is still building so much coal power (along with gobs of solar and wind), and the energy-intensive shift that its economy has taken in the past five years. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.

Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.

You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.

Here is an excerpt from our conversation:

Jesse Jenkins: So there’s sort of two key variables here. And we hit both those: the growth rate in new clean energy supplies, particularly in the electricity sector, and then the pace of demand growth. And this has been the story globally, the argument that we actually haven’t really seen any energy transition, only energy addition, right? We’re adding enough new clean energy, maybe, to meet growth, but not actually to drive down emissions, which would require us to exceed the growth rate and demand, right? So we can eat into the market share of existing fossil generation.

And that’s sort of the fundamental equation in China as well, right? Is if demand is growing rapidly, more rapidly than, clean electricity additions, emissions go up. And if the opposite is true, emissions go down. There’s also, it seems like, some evidence that the economy itself is slowing, or at least going through a bit of a structural change, right? So still growing, but not growing, perhaps, at the target rates that government has set. I think the expectations for this year, if I’m not mistaken, are under 5% growth, maybe 4.5% to 4.7% — so, you know, in U.S. terms, that’s still quite rapid, but in Chinese terms, a bit slower than the goal. And part of that is a slowdown in the construction industry — is that right? — which is another major driver of emissions due to cement consumption and steel consumption.

Lauri Myllyvirta: Yeah, so I’m a bit allergic to talking about the economy as a whole — you know, “the economy” is slowing down, or “the economy” is speeding up. Because the economy is, of course, made up of a lot of different sectors, and in order to understand energy demand, those sectors are not created equal. So if you have a 5% GDP growth that comes from service industries, from consumer-facing industries, that can mean much less than 5% growth in energy demand. And that’s what China was seeing until the Covid period.

China was actually making a pretty big deal out of improving the energy, or reducing the energy-intensity of the economy. And that’s what stopped in 2020. So since 2020, there has been essentially no reduction in the energy intensity, energy consumption, and GDP has grown at the same rate. And when you consider the fact that there is a lot of technical improvement still going on, different processes are getting more energy efficient, then that means that the structure of the economy has, in fact, gotten more energy-intensive. And that’s the key concern. The less than 5% growth now is driving faster growth in total energy demand than the 6%, even 7% growth was during the previous decade.

This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …

Intersolar & Energy Storage North America is the premier U.S.-based conference and trade show focused on solar, energy storage, and EV charging infrastructure. To learn more, visit intersolar.us.

Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.

Green

You’re out of free articles.

Subscribe today to experience Heatmap’s expert analysis 
of climate change, clean energy, and sustainability.
To continue reading
Create a free account or sign in to unlock more free articles.
or
Please enter an email address
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
Climate

An Unexpected Obstacle to Putting Out the L.A. Fires

That sick drone shot is not worth it.

A drone operator and flames.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Imagine for a moment that you’re an aerial firefighter pilot. You have one of the most dangerous jobs in the country, and now you’ve been called in to fight the devastating fires burning in Los Angeles County’s famously tricky, hilly terrain. You’re working long hours — not as long as your colleagues on the ground due to flight time limitations, but the maximum scheduling allows — not to mention the added external pressures you’re also facing. Even the incoming president recently wondered aloud why the fires aren’t under control yet and insinuated that it’s your and your colleagues’ fault.

You’re on a sortie, getting ready for a particularly white-knuckle drop at a low altitude in poor visibility conditions when an object catches your eye outside the cockpit window: an authorized drone dangerously close to your wing.

Keep reading...Show less
Climate

What Started the Fires in Los Angeles?

Plus 3 more outstanding questions about this ongoing emergency.

Los Angeles.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

As Los Angeles continued to battle multiple big blazes ripping through some of the most beloved (and expensive) areas of the city on Friday, a question lingered in the background: What caused the fires in the first place?

Though fires are less common in California during this time of the year, they aren’t unheard of. In early December 2017, power lines sparked the Thomas Fire near Ventura, California, which burned through to mid-January. At the time it was the largest fire in the state since at least the 1930s. Now it’s the ninth-largest. Although that fire was in a more rural area, it ignited for some of the same reasons we’re seeing fires this week.

Keep reading...Show less
Green
Politics

AM Briefing: High Stakes Hearings

On tough questioning from the Senate, LA’s fires, and EV leases

Trump’s Cabinet Picks Face Confirmation Hearings This Week

Current conditions: Odd weather has caused broccoli and cauliflower plants to come up far too early in the UK • Another blast of Arctic air is headed for the Midwest • An air quality alert has been issued in Los Angeles due to windblown dust and ash.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Strong winds threaten progress in battle against LA fires

Firefighters in Los Angeles are scrambling to make progress against the ongoing wildfires there before dangerous winds return. The Palisades and Eaton fires have now been burning for almost a week, charring nearly 40,000 acres, damaging more than 12,000 structures, and leaving at least 24 people dead. They are 13% and 27% contained, respectively. Residents who lost their homes are desperately trying to find new properties to rent or buy in a tight market, with reports of intense bidding wars as landlords hike rents. The economic toll of this disaster is estimated to be between $135 billion and $150 billion. Red flag warnings are in effect today, with critical fire conditions and extreme wind gusts forecast through Wednesday.

Keep reading...Show less
Yellow