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The heat pump era has arrived.
If you’re in the market for a new air conditioner or furnace, you might soon have trouble finding any with that cheery blue star telling you which models will save money on your energy bills.
The Biden administration has proposed making a major, market-moving change to the Energy Star program, which gives a stamp of approval to the most energy-efficient appliances. In a memo published in mid-May that’s flown under the radar, the Environmental Protection Agency said it wanted to take central A/Cs and residential gas furnaces out of the running for Energy Star altogether. Instead, the certification program would steer consumers to heat pumps, electric appliances that are akin to combination A/Cs and furnaces because they can both heat and cool a home.
Thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act, which created rebates and tax credits to help people cut emissions by switching to heat pumps and other electric appliances, the EPA sees an “unprecedented opportunity” and an “important responsibility” to support this transition through the Energy Star program, the memo says.
“I’m very excited about it,” Matt Malinowski, the director of climate research at CLASP, a nonprofit that advocates for energy efficiency in the U.S. and abroad, told me.
The EPA proposal cites research conducted by Malinowski and others which found that if every homeowner looking to replace their central air conditioner in the next 10 years bought a heat pump instead, and used it for heating as well as cooling, that alone could cut direct emissions from homes by about 50 million tons, or 15%, annually by 2032. The average home would see a whopping 39% reduction in fossil fuel consumption, and homeowners would save a collective $27 billion on their energy bills, the report found.
“I liken Energy Star to the ‘easy’ button from the Staples advertisement,” said Malinowski. “It’s just a simple thing that people can tell whether a product is efficient or not.”
If the change is finalized, EPA would stop certifying new furnace and central A/C models by the end of this year, and would sunset the two programs entirely by the end of 2024.
The agency is accepting comments on the proposal until June 22, and it’s likely to face pushback from the gas industry. In an email, Richard Meyer, the Vice President of Energy Markets, Analysis, and Standards at the American Gas Association told me the proposal was “ill-considered and would harm the EPA’s equipment and utility partners, deprive consumers of accurate information about efficient residential heating equipment, and lead to higher energy use and emissions for many consumers.”
However, installing a heat pump instead of a central A/C or furnace would likely reduce energy use and emissions for most customers. EPA notes they can be “as much as four times more efficient than even the most efficient condensing gas furnaces,” which means they can reduce greenhouse gas emissions even if the electricity was generated by burning fossil fuels. The benefits EPA highlights also include energy security and cleaner air, since they can be powered by domestic, renewable electricity.
There are already a few places that have created mandatory requirements to replace regular air conditioners with heat pumps such as Vancouver, British Columbia, and San Mateo, California, which put the rule into their building codes. The theory is, if you’re going to replace your air conditioner anyway, why not get something that can take care of some of your heating needs as well? “This approach really won't leave you any worse off than you would be otherwise, versus replacing that air conditioner with just another air conditioner,” said Malinowski.
The Energy Star change would be more of a nudge, not an ultimatum. Companies won’t have to stop making traditional air conditioners or furnaces, and people will still be able to buy them. (Nor will the change affect window a/c units.) Homeowners in chillier parts of the country might also decide to keep their existing gas-powered furnace or boiler as a back-up, particularly if they can’t afford the more expensive heat pumps designed for the coldest climates.
But it would likely have ripple effects. Many utilities that have their own incentive programs use Energy Star ratings to decide which products qualify, so the EPA’s change could drive more rebates to heat pumps beyond state or federal incentives.
The Energy Star label is also a market signal that manufacturers follow to update their product lines. Nate Adams, a contractor and well-known electrification advocate who contributed to the CLASP report, likened the idea of sunsetting the Energy Star rating for furnaces and central A/Cs to a “change in the wind.”
“The weather changes when the wind changes, that's what this is,” he said. “A shift in the direction of things.”
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The Loan Programs Office is good for more than just nuclear funding.
That China has a whip hand over the rare earths mining and refining industry is one of the few things Washington can agree on.
That’s why Alex Jacquez, who worked on industrial policy for Joe Biden’s National Economic Council, found it “astounding”when he read in the Washington Post this week that the White House was trying to figure out on the fly what to do about China restricting exports of rare earth metals in response to President Trump’s massive tariffs on the country’s imports.
Rare earth metals have a wide variety of applications, including for magnets in medical technology, defense, and energy productssuch as wind turbines and electric motors.
Jacquez told me there has been “years of work, including by the first Trump administration, that has pointed to this exact case as the worst-case scenario that could happen in an escalation with China.” It stands to reason, then, that experienced policymakers in the Trump administration might have been mindful of forestalling this when developing their tariff plan. But apparently not.
“The lines of attack here are numerous,” Jacquez said. “The fact that the National Economic Council and others are apparently just thinking about this for the first time is pretty shocking.”
And that’s not the only thing the Trump administration is doing that could hamper American access to rare earths and critical minerals.
Though China still effectively controls the global pipeline for most critical minerals (a broader category that includes rare earths as well as more commonly known metals and minerals such as lithium and cobalt), the U.S. has been at work for at least the past five years developing its own domestic supply chain. Much of that work has fallen to the Department of Energy, whose Loan Programs Office has funded mining and processing facilities, and whose Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains hasfunded and overseen demonstration projects for rare earths and critical minerals mining and refining.
The LPO is in line for dramatic cuts, as Heatmap has reported. So, too, are other departments working on rare earths, including the Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains. In its zeal to slash the federal government, the Trump administration may have to start from scratch in its efforts to build up a rare earths supply chain.
The Department of Energy did not reply to a request for comment.
This vulnerability to China has been well known in Washington for years, including by the first Trump administration.
“Our dependence on one country, the People's Republic of China (China), for multiple critical minerals is particularly concerning,” then-President Trump said in a 2020 executive order declaring a “national emergency” to deal with “our Nation's undue reliance on critical minerals.” At around the same time, the Loan Programs Office issued guidance “stating a preference for projects related to critical mineral” for applicants for the office’s funding, noting that “80 percent of its rare earth elements directly from China.” Using the Defense Production Act, the Trump administration also issued a grant to the company operating America's sole rare earth mine, MP Materials, to help fund a processing facility at the site of its California mine.
The Biden administration’s work on rare earths and critical minerals was almost entirely consistent with its predecessor’s, just at a greater scale and more focused on energy. About a month after taking office, President Bidenissued an executive order calling for, among other things, a Defense Department report “identifying risks in the supply chain for critical minerals and other identified strategic materials, including rare earth elements.”
Then as part of the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, the Biden administration increased funding for LPO, which supported a number of critical minerals projects. It also funneled more money into MP Materials — including a $35 million contract from the Department of Defense in 2022 for the California project. In 2024, it awarded the company a competitive tax credit worth $58.5 million to help finance construction of its neodymium-iron-boron magnet factory in Texas. That facilitybegan commercial operation earlier this year.
The finished magnets will be bought by General Motors for its electric vehicles. But even operating at full capacity, it won’t be able to do much to replace China’s production. The MP Metals facility is projected to produce 1,000 tons of the magnets per year.China produced 138,000 tons of NdFeB magnets in 2018.
The Trump administration is not averse to direct financial support for mining and minerals projects, but they seem to want to do it a different way. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum has proposed using a sovereign wealth fund to invest in critical mineral mines. There is one big problem with that plan, however: the U.S. doesn’t have one (for the moment, at least).
“LPO can invest in mining projects now,” Jacquez told me. “Cutting 60% of their staff and the experts who work on this is not going to give certainty to the business community if they’re looking to invest in a mine that needs some government backstop.”
And while the fate of the Inflation Reduction Act remains very much in doubt, the subsidies it provided for electric vehicles, solar, and wind, along with domestic content requirements have been a major source of demand for critical minerals mining and refining projects in the United States.
“It’s not something we’re going to solve overnight,” Jacquez said. “But in the midst of a maximalist trade with China, it is something we will have to deal with on an overnight basis, unless and until there’s some kind of de-escalation or agreement.”
A conversation with VDE Americas CEO Brian Grenko.
This week’s Q&A is about hail. Last week, we explained how and why hail storm damage in Texas may have helped galvanize opposition to renewable energy there. So I decided to reach out to Brian Grenko, CEO of renewables engineering advisory firm VDE Americas, to talk about how developers can make sure their projects are not only resistant to hail but also prevent that sort of pushback.
The following conversation has been lightly edited for clarity.
Hiya Brian. So why’d you get into the hail issue?
Obviously solar panels are made with glass that can allow the sunlight to come through. People have to remember that when you install a project, you’re financing it for 35 to 40 years. While the odds of you getting significant hail in California or Arizona are low, it happens a lot throughout the country. And if you think about some of these large projects, they may be in the middle of nowhere, but they are taking hundreds if not thousands of acres of land in some cases. So the chances of them encountering large hail over that lifespan is pretty significant.
We partnered with one of the country’s foremost experts on hail and developed a really interesting technology that can digest radar data and tell folks if they’re developing a project what the [likelihood] will be if there’s significant hail.
Solar panels can withstand one-inch hail – a golfball size – but once you get over two inches, that’s when hail starts breaking solar panels. So it’s important to understand, first and foremost, if you’re developing a project, you need to know the frequency of those events. Once you know that, you need to start thinking about how to design a system to mitigate that risk.
The government agencies that look over land use, how do they handle this particular issue? Are there regulations in place to deal with hail risk?
The regulatory aspects still to consider are about land use. There are authorities with jurisdiction at the federal, state, and local level. Usually, it starts with the local level and with a use permit – a conditional use permit. The developer goes in front of the township or the city or the county, whoever has jurisdiction of wherever the property is going to go. That’s where it gets political.
To answer your question about hail, I don’t know if any of the [authority having jurisdictions] really care about hail. There are folks out there that don’t like solar because it’s an eyesore. I respect that – I don’t agree with that, per se, but I understand and appreciate it. There’s folks with an agenda that just don’t want solar.
So okay, how can developers approach hail risk in a way that makes communities more comfortable?
The bad news is that solar panels use a lot of glass. They take up a lot of land. If you have hail dropping from the sky, that’s a risk.
The good news is that you can design a system to be resilient to that. Even in places like Texas, where you get large hail, preparing can mean the difference between a project that is destroyed and a project that isn’t. We did a case study about a project in the East Texas area called Fighting Jays that had catastrophic damage. We’re very familiar with the area, we work with a lot of clients, and we found three other projects within a five-mile radius that all had minimal damage. That simple decision [to be ready for when storms hit] can make the complete difference.
And more of the week’s big fights around renewable energy.
1. Long Island, New York – We saw the face of the resistance to the war on renewable energy in the Big Apple this week, as protestors rallied in support of offshore wind for a change.
2. Elsewhere on Long Island – The city of Glen Cove is on the verge of being the next New York City-area community with a battery storage ban, discussing this week whether to ban BESS for at least one year amid fire fears.
3. Garrett County, Maryland – Fight readers tell me they’d like to hear a piece of good news for once, so here’s this: A 300-megawatt solar project proposed by REV Solar in rural Maryland appears to be moving forward without a hitch.
4. Stark County, Ohio – The Ohio Public Siting Board rejected Samsung C&T’s Stark Solar project, citing “consistent opposition to the project from each of the local government entities and their impacted constituents.”
5. Ingham County, Michigan – GOP lawmakers in the Michigan State Capitol are advancing legislation to undo the state’s permitting primacy law, which allows developers to evade municipalities that deny projects on unreasonable grounds. It’s unlikely the legislation will become law.
6. Churchill County, Nevada – Commissioners have upheld the special use permit for the Redwood Materials battery storage project we told you about last week.