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Climate

Will 2025 Be Another Year of Extreme Heat?

On weather projections, deadly EV attacks, and hydrogen tax credits

Will 2025 Be Another Year of Extreme Heat?
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: A series of Arctic blasts hitting the U.S. could make for the coldest January since 2011 • Power has been restored in Puerto Rico after a massive New Year’s Eve blackout • Temperatures will get down to about 43 degrees Fahrenheit tonight in Barcelona, where gas-powered patio heaters are officially banned due to their carbon emissions.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Electric pickups used in deadly New Year’s Day attacks

Authorities are investigating whether yesterday’s deadly truck attacks in New Orleans and Las Vegas may be linked. Both incidents involved electric pickups. In New Orleans, a man drove a Ford F-150 Lightning into a crowd in the French Quarter, killing 15 people and injuring dozens of others. In Vegas, a Tesla Cybertruck packed with explosives detonated outside the Trump International Hotel, killing the driver and injuring seven others. Both vehicles were rented through a budget app called Turo. Electric vehicles tend to be heavier than their internal combustion counterparts, mostly due to their battery packs. This can make them particularly deadly in collisions with smaller vehicles and, of course, pedestrians. Ford’s 2024 F-150 Lightning has a curb weight ranging from 6,000 to nearly 7,000 pounds; the Cybertruck starts at 6,600 pounds, about 2,000 pounds heavier than the average new vehicle weight.

In the Las Vegas explosion, Sheriff Kevin McMahill indicated the Cybertruck actually “limited the damage that occurred.” The vehicle’s exterior appeared to remain intact. In a post on X, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said: “The evil knuckleheads picked the wrong vehicle for a terrorist attack.”

2. Hydrogen tax credit guidance expected this week

The Biden administration plans to release guidance for hydrogen production tax credits this week, likely on Friday, two sources told Reuters. The guidance will “provide a pathway” for tax credits for hydrogen producers that use nuclear power, the outlet reported. Back in October, Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo told Heatmap the rules would be out by the end of 2024. As Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer explained, the Treasury Department’s must decide how hydrogen producers who use electrolysis — sending electricity through water to split its molecules — should deal with the indirect carbon emissions associated with drawing power from the grid. “Finalizing rules that will help scale the clean hydrogen industry while implementing the environmental safeguards established in the law remains a top priority for Treasury,” spokesperson Michael Martinez told Reuters. “In that process, we are carefully considering the numerous comments we have received on the proposed regulations.” In his conversation with Heatmap, Adeyemo acknowledged that the final rules were unlikely to please everyone.

3. A brief look back at 2024 extreme weather...

Climate change meant that there were about 41 more “extreme heat” days in 2024, according to the World Weather Attribution’s annual extreme weather report. Climate change contributed to at least 3,700 deaths, but “it’s likely the total number of people killed in extreme weather events intensified by climate change [in 2024] is in the tens, or hundreds of thousands,” the group said. While the El Niño weather pattern contributed to global trends, climate change played a bigger role in fueling extreme weather. “As the planet warms, the influence of climate change increasingly overrides other natural phenomena affecting the weather,” the report added.

World Weather Attribution

China’s weather agency also reported that 2024 was the country’s warmest year on record, and that “the top four warmest years ever were the past four years, with all top 10 warmest years since 1961 occurring in the 21st century.” And a report from the National Institute for Space Research concluded that Brazil’s Amazon rainforest experienced 140,328 fires last year, the highest number in 17 years. In a New Year’s message, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said we are in an era of real-time climate breakdown.

4. ...And an early forecast for 2025

The UK’s Met Office projected that global temperatures will remain high in 2025 despite the shift to La Niña, averaging between 2.3 and 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above the pre-industrial average. “Years such as 2025, which aren’t dominated by the warming influence of El Niño, should be cooler,” said Professor Adam Scaife, who leads the team behind the Met Office’s global forecast. “2016 was an El Niño year and at the time it was the warmest year on record for global temperature. In comparison to our forecast for 2025 though, 2016 is now looking decidedly cool.”

Met Office

5. New York enacts new climate law to fine fossil fuel companies

In case you missed it: New York Gov. Kathy Hochul signed a new bill into law that allows the state to fine fossil fuel companies for climate damages. The law could see the companies incur charges of up to $75 billion over the next 25 years – though many are expected to file legal challenges. Firms will be fined based on their emissions between 2000 and 2018. The money will go into a Climate Superfund and be put toward mitigation and adaptation measures. Vermont implemented a similar law last summer. “New York has fired a shot that will be heard round the world: The companies most responsible for the climate crisis will be held accountable,” New York Sen. Liz Krueger said in a statement.

THE KICKER

“A generation from now, this solar heater can either be a curiosity, a museum piece, an example of a road not taken, or it can be a small part of one of the greatest and most exciting adventures ever undertaken by the American people.” The late President Jimmy Carter, upon installing solar panels on the roof of the West Wing of the White House in 1979. Ronald Reagan had the panels removed seven years later. Carter died on Sunday at the age of 100.

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Spotlight

The Moss Landing Battery Backlash Has Spread Nationwide

New York City may very well be the epicenter of this particular fight.

Moss Landing.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images, Library of Congress

It’s official: the Moss Landing battery fire has galvanized a gigantic pipeline of opposition to energy storage systems across the country.

As I’ve chronicled extensively throughout this year, Moss Landing was a technological outlier that used outdated battery technology. But the January incident played into existing fears and anxieties across the U.S. about the dangers of large battery fires generally, latent from years of e-scooters and cellphones ablaze from faulty lithium-ion tech. Concerned residents fighting projects in their backyards have successfully seized upon the fact that there’s no known way to quickly extinguish big fires at energy storage sites, and are winning particularly in wildfire-prone areas.

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And more on the biggest conflicts around renewable energy projects in Kentucky, Ohio, and Maryland.

The United States.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

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  • Xcel’s Ten Mile Creek solar project doesn’t appear to have begun construction yet, and like many facilities it must begin that process by about this time next year or it will lose out on the renewable energy tax credits cut short by the new law. Ten Mile Creek has essentially become a proxy for the larger fight to build before time runs out to get these credits.
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  • “Be on the lookout for Xcel to accelerate the PSC submittal,” Ryan Sherley, a member of the St. Croix Board of Supervisors, wrote on Facebook. “St. Croix County needs to legally intervene in the process to ensure the PSC properly hears the citizens and does not rush this along in order to obtain tax credits.”

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All the Renewables Restrictions Fit to Print

Talking local development moratoria with Heatmap’s own Charlie Clynes.

The Q&A subject.
Heatmap Illustration

This week’s conversation is special: I chatted with Charlie Clynes, Heatmap Pro®’s very own in-house researcher. Charlie just released a herculean project tracking all of the nation’s county-level moratoria and restrictive ordinances attacking renewable energy. The conclusion? Essentially a fifth of the country is now either closed off to solar and wind entirely or much harder to build. I decided to chat with him about the work so you could hear about why it’s an important report you should most definitely read.

The following chat was lightly edited for clarity. Let’s dive in.

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