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Climate

AM Briefing: Insects in Decline

On the troubling rise of self-pollination, Chinese EV tariffs, and speed limits

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AM Briefing: Insects in Decline
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Current conditions: Southern California remains at risk of flooding and may even see some waterspouts or tornadoes • A wildfire is burning out of control in Perth, in Australia • It's the shortest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere.

THE TOP FIVE

1. U.S. may hike tariffs on Chinese EVs

The Biden administration is reportedly considering raising tariffs on electric vehicles made in China, which tend to run cheaper than those made in the U.S. The move would be an attempt to “bolster the U.S. clean energy industry,” explains The Wall Street Journal. Chinese EVs are already subject to a 25% tariff. While an increase wouldn’t mean much in the immediate term for most Americans, it would put added strain on relations with China, which are already tense. Global markets are facing a glut of cheap Chinese clean-energy products, and the administration is reportedly also considering higher levies on solar products and EV battery packs, the Journal reports.

2. Study suggests some plants are evolving to not need pollinators

Wildflowers may be evolving to rely less on pollinators in order to reproduce as insect numbers decline. A new study published in the journal New Phytologist looked at flowering plants that grow in farmland near Paris and found they have become smaller and now produce less nectar than they would have 20 to 30 years ago. “Our study shows that pansies are evolving to give up on their pollinators,” says Pierre-Olivier Cheptou, one of the study’s authors. “They are evolving towards self-pollination, where each plant reproduces with itself, which works in the short term but may well limit their capacity to adapt to future environmental changes.” While the study “demonstrates that plant mating systems can evolve rapidly ... in the face of ongoing environmental changes,” the authors say, it paints a troubling picture of a symbiotic relationship in a spiral: As insect populations suffer from loss of habitat and overuse of pesticides, plants begin to rely on them less and produce less nectar, exacerbating their decline.

3. U.S. completes auction for Gulf drilling rights

A U.S. auction of oil drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico went ahead yesterday. This is the last auction until 2025. Here are a few key numbers:

  • 72.7 million – acres that were up for bidding, including 6 million acres considered habitat for the endangered Rice's whale.
  • $382 million – amount raised in the auction, the highest of any federal offshore oil and gas lease sale since 2015, according to Reuters.
  • $88.2 million – highest amount offered, from Hess, for 20 successful bids.
  • 3 – drilling rights auctions the Interior Department will hold over the next five years, the minimum required to comply with the Inflation Reduction Act. It represents “the smallest offshore oil program in U.S. history.”
  • 47 – auctions over five years that were proposed by the Trump administration.
  • 1.1 million – gallons of oil estimated to have spilled into the Gulf from a leak detected last month, the largest Gulf spill since Deepwater Horizon.
  • 8 – days since the U.S. and nearly 200 other nations agreed at COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels.
  • 21 – percent of the world’s oil produced by America in 2022.

4. Orsted commits to building world’s largest offshore wind farm

Danish energy giant Orsted plans to go ahead with building the world’s largest offshore wind farm, reports the Financial Times. The 2.9 gigawatt Hornsea 3 project is located in the North Sea. It will cost £8 billion (about $10 billion) and represents Orsted’s single biggest investment decision. Once finished in 2027, the project will power 3.3 million homes. Last month Orsted cancelled two major U.S. offshore wind projects and took a $4 billion writedown as a result. The Hornsea 3 investment shows “the offshore wind industry is picking back up, after a crisis year,” concludes Priscila Azevedo Rocha at Bloomberg.

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5. Cities are lowering their speed limits

Speed limits in some major U.S. cities are dropping, Yale Climate Connections reports. This is a “win for the climate” because slower vehicle speeds make for safer city streets, which could nudge people more toward less polluting modes of transportation, like walking or cycling. Seattle, Denver, Minneapolis, Hoboken, and Washington, D.C., have all lowered their speed limits, according to Yale Climate Connections. “Safety and environmental goals go together. They’re inevitably interlinked,” says Venu Nemani, the chief safety officer of the Seattle Department of Transportation.

THE KICKER

A recent White House briefing says more than one million EVs have been sold in the U.S. in 2023 — “three years ahead of the projections made earlier this year and 18 years ahead of the projections made in the beginning of 2021.”

The White House

Yellow

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AM Briefing

Pump and Trump

On OpenAI’s pledge, power plant emissions, and Kazakh tungsten

A gas station.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: The polar vortex that keeps air circulating around the North Pole collapsed months ahead of schedule, threatening to send frigid temperatures southward • India’s east coast Andhra Pradesh state is facing down yet another major storm as Severe Cyclone Murasu makes landfall • The catastrophic atmospheric river over the American Southwest has dumped more than 20 trillion gallons of water across Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah.


THE TOP FIVE

1. Gas prices hit a record high on the eve of America’s midterm elections

The average price of a gallon of gasoline during President Donald Trump’s second term topped $3.46 as of Monday, a record that exceeds the previous high set under the Biden administration. That’s according to a new analysis by the Financial Times. And that’s just the average across the past 22 months. The average price nationwide on November 2 clocked in at just under $4.17 per gallon. “If modern living boiled down to a price, it’s the price at the pump,” Bob McNally, a former energy advisor to the George W Bush administration and president of consultancy Rapidan Energy, told the newspaper. “Whether a voter is filling up that day or not, it’s likely that they see a pump price.”

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Red
Daily Briefing

Think Congress Is Slow? Meet the Power Sector.

BAAJA would likely help speed up the U.S. transmission buildout, but there’s a chance we’re undercounting the benefits.

Power lines.
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This is Heatmap Daily, a weekday digest written by our executive editor. Subscribe here.

As you may have seen, my colleague Emily Pontecorvo and I got the first look at the Rhodium Group’s analysis of what the bipartisan permitting bill will do to emissions.

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AM Briefing

Neutral, at Worst

On Chinese hydrogen, Fermi upheaval, and British offshore wind

Smokestacks.
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Current conditions: The Pineapple Express, an atmospheric river originating in the Pacific near Hawaii, is arriving in the Southwest laden with heavy rain that’s set to flood the region • Indonesia has the worst air quality in the world as forest fires rage along Sumatra’s southern coast • A cross-country storm will soak much of the United States on Tuesday’s Election Day.


THE TOP FIVE

1. Permitting bill’s worst-case climate scenario is still carbon neutral

The Senate’s grand compromise to simplify federal permitting on energy projects would likely drop emissions slightly as the benefits to accelerating deployments of clean energy infrastructure outweigh the boost the legislation could give to fossil fuels. Even under the worst-case scenario, emissions remain on the same trajectory as today. That’s according to a hotly anticipated new analysis by the Rhodium Group, the consultancy whose U.S. emissions estimates are among the most widely cited in American politics. The report, shared first with my colleague Emily Pontecorvo, found that provisions in the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act largely counteract each other on climate. The bill makes building transmission lines much easier, a key step to patching more renewables onto the grid. But it also makes new gas pipelines simpler to permit, clearing the way for a buildout of the infrastructure for the fossil fuel already dominating U.S. electricity and heating systems. Still, under the best-case scenario, the legislation could cut U.S. economy-wide emissions by 5% below where they would otherwise go in 2040. The bill could also slash energy bills by $78 per year and support construction of more than 200 gigawatts of clean energy capacity, as compared to a world where it didn’t pass. The Rhodium report is at least the second analysis yet to find that the bill could modestly lower emissions. The first, as I reported last week, came from the think tank Resources for the Future, which saw a slight drop in power-sector emissions relative to a world without BAAJA.

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Blue