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On the cost of staying cool, battery passports, and orange crops
Current conditions: Heat advisories are in effect across much of California • A large landslide buried cars in Taiwan • It is 70 degrees Fahrenheit and partly cloudy in Bonn, Germany, where delegates from 198 countries are gathering this week for the Bonn Climate Change Conference
A new report from the International Energy Agency released this morning concluded that the world isn’t yet on track to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 compared to 2022 levels – an ambitious goal set last year at COP28 in line with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. But we’re not hugely far off: In examining countries’ unofficial energy policies, the IEA found we’re likely to increase renewable capacity by about 8,000 gigawatts by 2030, which is about 70% of the 11,000 GW goal. But these policies aren’t set in stone. In fact, very few countries (just 14) have included clear 2030 renewable targets in their climate action plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The IEA wants countries to make these ambitions official when they revise those NDCs next year, but also urges them to move quickly on things like permitting and grid infrastructure expansion, and in general, aim higher. “The tripling target is ambitious but achievable – though only if governments quickly turn promises into plans of action,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol.
U.S. household electricity bills are projected to rise by 8% on average this summer compared to last year, according to analysis from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association and the Center for Energy Poverty, and Climate. Costs are going up everywhere as Americans rely heavily on air conditioning to stay cool during intense heat. Here’s a look at expected summer electric bills across the country:
NEADA and CEPC
The report finds that “due to the unprecedented rise in summer temperatures and higher rates of extreme heat events,” summer energy bills have risen from an average cost of $476 in 2014 to a projected $719 this year. Low-income households will feel this financial strain the most because they spend a larger amount of their income (about 8%) on energy. Startlingly, the survey found that the percentage of customers that couldn’t pay their energy bills for one month or longer jumped from 21.3% to 23.5% last year, which saw the hottest summer on record. The largest increase was among households with children. The report calls for more efforts to ensure houses are weatherized, and installing heat pumps.
The recent floods in southern Brazil, which have killed more than 170 people and displaced nearly 600,000, were made about twice as likely by human-induced climate change, according to an international group of researchers. The analysis from the World Weather Attribution also said the El Niño weather pattern played a big role in the disaster, increasing the risk by nearly five times and making rainfall between 3% and 10% more intense. Meanwhile, a bit farther north in Brazil’s “citrus belt,” orange growers are seeing a significant drop in crop production thanks in part to severe weather such as drought, disease, and pests. One research group is forecasting that the 2024-25 season could see production drop by a quarter. Brazil is the world’s top orange producer and exporter.
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An Australian company called 5B has designed solar arrays that can withstand some extreme weather. The 5B Maverick arrays are modular, fold up like an accordian for transporting, and can endure winds up to 166 mph. That makes them a good option for hurricane-prone areas like Puerto Rico, where 5B is installing 1,392 arrays, Electrekreported. Now, if only someone could design solar panels that can withstand the force of six-inch hail stones...
5B
Volvo is rolling out a “passport” for EV batteries that will show the origin of the battery’s components as well as its carbon footprint, according toReuters. The passport rollout will begin with Volvo’s EX90 SUV before expanding to include all of Volvo’s EVs. Drivers will be able to access the passport by scanning a QR code on the driver’s-side door. The European Union is set to require battery passports for all EVs starting in 2027, but Reuters reported that U.S. automakers are taking notes, as rules for EV subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act dictate where battery parts can be manufactured.
The band Coldplay says it has reduced the carbon footprint of its latest world tour by nearly 60% compared to its 2016-17 tour using solutions like power-generating dance floors and bikes that charge the show’s battery system.
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Plus 3 more outstanding questions about this ongoing emergency.
As Los Angeles continued to battle multiple big blazes ripping through some of the most beloved (and expensive) areas of the city on Thursday, a question lingered in the background: What caused the fires in the first place?
Though fires are less common in California during this time of the year, they aren’t unheard of. In early December 2017, power lines sparked the Thomas Fire near Ventura, California, which burned through to mid-January. At the time it was the largest fire in the state since at least the 1930s. Now it’s the ninth-largest. Although that fire was in a more rural area, it ignited for many of the same reasons we’re seeing fires this week.
Read on for everything we know so far about how the fires started.
Five major fires started during the Santa Ana wind event this week:
Officials have not made any statements about the cause of any of the fires yet.
On Thursday morning, Edward Nordskog, a retired fire investigator from the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department, told me it was unlikely they had even begun looking into the root of the biggest and most destructive of the fires in the Pacific Palisades. “They don't start an investigation until it's safe to go into the area where the fire started, and it just hasn't been safe until probably today,” he said.
It can take years to determine the cause of a fire. Investigators did not pinpoint the cause of the Thomas Fire until March 2019, more than two years after it started.
But Nordskog doesn’t think it will take very long this time. It’s easier to narrow down the possibilities for an urban fire because there are typically both witnesses and surveillance footage, he told me. He said the most common causes of wildfires in Los Angeles are power lines and those started by unhoused people. They can also be caused by sparks from vehicles or equipment.
At about 27,000 acres burned, these fires are unlikely to make the charts for the largest in California history. But because they are burning in urban, densely populated, and expensive areas, they could be some of the most devastating. With an estimated 2,000 structures damaged so far, the Eaton and Palisades fires are likely to make the list for most destructive wildfire events in the state.
And they will certainly be at the top for costliest. The Palisades Fire has already been declared a likely contender for the most expensive wildfire in U.S. history. It has destroyed more than 1,000 structures in some of the most expensive zip codes in the country. Between that and the Eaton Fire, Accuweather estimates the damages could reach $57 billion.
While we don’t know the root causes of the ignitions, several factors came together to create perfect fire conditions in Southern California this week.
First, there’s the Santa Ana winds, an annual phenomenon in Southern California, when very dry, high-pressure air gets trapped in the Great Basin and begins escaping westward through mountain passes to lower-pressure areas along the coast. Most of the time, the wind in Los Angeles blows eastward from the ocean, but during a Santa Ana event, it changes direction, picking up speed as it rushes toward the sea.
Jon Keeley, a research scientist with the US Geological Survey and an adjunct professor at the University of California, Los Angeles told me that Santa Ana winds typically blow at maybe 30 to 40 miles per hour, while the winds this week hit upwards of 60 to 70 miles per hour. “More severe than is normal, but not unique,” he said. “We had similar severe winds in 2017 with the Thomas Fire.”
Second, Southern California is currently in the midst of extreme drought. Winter is typically a rainier season, but Los Angeles has seen less than half an inch of rain since July. That means that all the shrubland vegetation in the area is bone-dry. Again, Keeley said, this was not usual, but not unique. Some years are drier than others.
These fires were also not a question of fuel management, Keeley told me. “The fuels are not really the issue in these big fires. It's the extreme winds,” he said. “You can do prescription burning in chaparral and have essentially no impact on Santa Ana wind-driven fires.” As far as he can tell, based on information from CalFire, the Eaton Fire started on an urban street.
While it’s likely that climate change played a role in amplifying the drought, it’s hard to say how big a factor it was. Patrick Brown, a climate scientist at the Breakthrough Institute and adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University, published a long post on X outlining the factors contributing to the fires, including a chart of historic rainfall during the winter in Los Angeles that shows oscillations between very wet and very dry years over the past eight decades. But climate change is expected to make dry years drier in Los Angeles. “The LA area is about 3°C warmer than it would be in preindustrial conditions, which (all else being equal) works to dry fuels and makes fires more intense,” Brown wrote.
And more of this week’s top renewable energy fights across the country.
1. Otsego County, Michigan – The Mitten State is proving just how hard it can be to build a solar project in wooded areas. Especially once Fox News gets involved.
2. Atlantic County, New Jersey – Opponents of offshore wind in Atlantic City are trying to undo an ordinance allowing construction of transmission cables that would connect the Atlantic Shores offshore wind project to the grid.
3. Benton County, Washington – Sorry Scout Clean Energy, but the Yakima Nation is coming for Horse Heaven.
Here’s what else we’re watching right now…
In Connecticut, officials have withdrawn from Vineyard Wind 2 — leading to the project being indefinitely shelved.
In Indiana, Invenergy just got a rejection from Marshall County for special use of agricultural lands.
In Kansas, residents in Dickinson County are filing legal action against county commissioners who approved Enel’s Hope Ridge wind project.
In Kentucky, a solar project was actually approved for once – this time for the East Kentucky Power Cooperative.
In North Carolina, Davidson County is getting a solar moratorium.
In Pennsylvania, the town of Unity rejected a solar project. Elsewhere in the state, the developer of the Newton 1 solar project is appealing their denial.
In South Carolina, a state appeals court has upheld the rejection of a 2,300 acre solar project proposed by Coastal Pine Solar.
In Washington State, Yakima County looks like it’ll keep its solar moratorium in place.
And more of this week’s top policy news around renewables.
1. Trump’s Big Promise – Our nation’s incoming president is now saying he’ll ban all wind projects on Day 1, an expansion of his previous promise to stop only offshore wind.
2. The Big Nuclear Lawsuit – Texas and Utah are suing to kill the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s authority to license small modular reactors.
3. Biden’s parting words – The Biden administration has finished its long-awaited guidance for the IRA’s tech-neutral electricity credit (which barely changed) and hydrogen production credit.