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On COP’s woes, Trump’s energy secretary, and the world’s worst air quality

Current conditions: Super Typhoon Man-yi made two landfalls across the Philippines over the weekend, becoming the country’s fourth typhoon in 10 days • Parts of Europe are bracing for a cold snap • The Jennings Creek Wildfire along the New York-New Jersey border is 90% contained.
Over the weekend, President-elect Donald Trump tapped Chris Wright, CEO of the oilfield services firm Liberty Energy and a major Republican donor, to lead the Department of Energy. Wright had been endorsed by several figures from the fossil fuel industry in the days leading up to Trump’s official announcement, including Oklahoma oil and gas billionaire Harold Hamm, a major Trump donor and informal advisor. While under current Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm, the DOE has become a locus of climate change and green energy policy. The sprawling department oversees the nation’s nuclear weapons stockpile, its national laboratories, and its energy efficiency standards, in addition to a variety of energy programs. Wright is a deep s keptic of the idea that there’s a climate crisis or energy transition happening at all. To wit: “There is no climate crisis, and we’re not in the midst of an energy transition,” Wright said in a video posted to LinkedIn last year. He also wrote that “climate crisis, energy transition, carbon pollution, clean energy, and dirty energy,” were “Five commonly used words around Energy and Climate that are both deceptive and destructive.” Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin said one of Wright’s first priorities will likely be to unblock the federal permitting process for new liquefied natural gas export terminals.
We’re now entering the second week of COP29. Negotiations so far have not yielded much in the way of a new collective goal for climate finance, but this could change as climate ministers finally join the summit. Meanwhile, leaders at the G20 summit in Brazil seem to be taking matters into their own hands after U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell penned a letter over the weekend asking them to take action on climate finance. On Sunday, G20 negotiators reportedly agreed on a text that mentions developing countries’ (voluntary) climate finance contributions. This line could help address a key sticking point for rich countries, who want some of the richer developing nations – China, for example – to contribute to a new climate finance goal. The G20 breakthrough “could unlock bigger numbers for the [New Collective Quantified Goal], as developed countries say this expanding of the contributor base is a condition of them raising their climate finance promise above $100 billion,” wrote Climate Home News.
On his way to the G20 summit, President Biden made a pit stop in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest, becoming the first sitting U.S. president to visit the natural wonder. He was given a tour by helicopter, met with Indigenous leaders, and signed a U.S. proclamation designating November 17 as International Conservation Day. “The world’s forest trees breathe carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, and yet each minute, the world is chopping down the equivalent (of) 10 soccer fields worth of forest,” Biden said during the visit. “The fight to protect our planet is literally a fight for humanity.” He said climate change has been a pillar of his presidency, and declared that nobody could reverse the energy transition that is underway.

President Biden plans to finalize a clean fuel tax credit rule before his term ends, a White House official told Reuters. The program would provide tax credits for producers of sustainable aviation fuel and other low-emissions transportation fuels. He’s also reportedly thinking of pushing for an agreement among the international Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) aimed at reducing financing for foreign fossil fuel projects. Such a deal couldn’t be dismantled by his successor. “If the U.S. moves forward, this would be more meaningful than anything they will do at COP and more Trump-proof,” Kate DeAngelis, international finance program manager for the environmental group Friends of the Earth, told Bloomberg. “It will shift billions of dollars away from fossil fuels.”
Northern India’s smog emergency continues to worsen, with air quality in New Delhi reaching levels that are 60 times the World Health Organization’s recommended limits. The city’s IQAir measurement climbed above 1,600. For context, readings over 301 are considered dangerous. Schools are closed, a medical emergency has been declared, and people are being urged to stay indoors. Much of the smog is coming from fires set by farmers, which is made worse by colder temperatures that trap pollutants.
New MethaneSAT data just dropped. The latest snapshots from the methane-spotting satellite support the theory that smaller emissions, scattered across wide areas, are responsible for a large share of total methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. Here are some images from the Permian basin in the U.S., and a basin in Turkmenistan:


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France’s deadliest heat wave since 2003 killed more than 2,700 people — and possibly as many as 5,700.
More than 5,700 excess deaths were recorded in France during this summer’s record-breaking heat wave, the country’s health agency announced today. That makes the event — which ran, by the official reckoning, from June 17 to July 2 — the country’s deadliest heat wave in more than 20 years.
That’s in line with other estimates we’ve heard. EuroMOMO, a network of European public health agencies that track excess mortality, found that the continent saw more than 10,000 excess deaths during the same period. Roughly 90% of those victims were older than 65, it said. (France’s cohort seems similar: Adults older than 75 made up about two-thirds of the victims, the government said.)
These numbers are staggering — and much larger than some astute Heatmap readers might anticipate. If you read my colleague Jeva Lange’s piece on why it’s so hard to estimate heat deaths last week, she cited a much smaller estimate: Roughly 2,700 died in France during the most recent heat wave. That tally came from Christopher Callahan, an Indiana University scientist who studies climate change’s economic and social costs.
Why is there such a gap between the figures? I emailed Callahan to find out. He shared a few thoughts. First, he uses a different (and theoretically more rigorous) method than the French government: “Our approach uses a statistical relationship between temperature and mortality to explicitly quantify how many additional deaths are associated with a given day’s temperature,” he wrote. “France’s report of excess deaths is just based on how many more people died in late June compared to previous Junes - but we don’t know if those people died because of the heat or some other factor.” (Carbon Brief recently published a Q&A on these varying approaches.)
That might mean his estimate is right, in which case France has misidentified roughly nearly 3,000 deaths. But it could also mean his model, which is trained on data from 2004 to 2019, is “missing something,” he said, like a post-Covid change to public health risk. Last year, Callahan and his colleagues used a similar model to estimate deaths from France’s worst-ever heatwave, a 2003 episode that overwhelmed morgues and killed about 16,000 people. Even 23 years ago, global warming helped make that disaster larger than it needed to be: Some 6,000 of those deaths were due to climate change, their paper found.
Either estimate of the 2026 heat wave, of course, is shattering. As Jeva wrote, even the lower figure would mean the 2026 heat wave killed as many people as died in three years of French homicides. But the divergence in estimates tells us something else too: Even as climate change breaks records and alters our world, we’re never going to quite agree on where it ends and normal randomness begins.
The AI data center boom does not seem close to ending. Google’s parent company, Alphabet, announced its second quarter results this evening, and it beat Wall Street’s expectations, nearly quadrupling its profit on a year-over-year basis. Among the drivers: Its cloud business grew 82% compared to the same quarter last year. (As I’ve written, that rapid growth is helping to turn Alphabet and other hyperscalers into light industrial firms.)
The company’s AI bets seem to be paying off so far — so Google is now planning on spending even more on data centers, energy infrastructure and AI development this year than it once anticipated. It raised its estimates of 2026 capital expenditure to $195 billion to $205 billion, which is above earlier projections and twice as much as it spent in the same category last year. 2027 could be even bigger, it signaled. The company’s shares fell slightly on the news in after-hours trading, but from an energy and climate wonk perspective, the message is clear: For now, the AI demand surge transforming the power sector — and the real economy — continues to chug along.