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On this week’s heat, nitrous oxide emissions, and Q2 earnings
Current conditions: Torrential rain from Typhoon Gaemi brought the Philippines’ capital to a standstill • California’s Santa Barbara County is dealing with an infestation of aggressive red fire ants • Monsoonal thunderstorms could bring flash flooding to the Great Basin region this week.
Sunday was the hottest day ever recorded, and Monday was even hotter. Data from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service shows the global average surface air temperature reached 62.87 degrees Fahrenheit Monday, which is just a touch higher than the all-time high of 62.76 degrees Fahrenheit recorded 24 hours earlier. And both days broke the new heat record set just last year. Before that, the previous hottest day was recorded in 2016. The trend is particularly worrying since the El Niño weather pattern, which tends to overlap with the warmest years on record, has now receded.
C3S
“What is truly staggering is how large the difference is between the temperature of the last 13 months and the previous temperature records,” said Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo. “We are now in truly uncharted territory and as the climate keeps warming, we are bound to see new records being broken in future months and years.” The records could well keep falling this week – last year’s stretch of new highs lasted for four days.
GE Vernova will likely face some tough questions in a call with analysts today after it reports Q2 results. The company is the manufacturer behind a broken blade that fell from a Vineyard Wind turbine on July 13 and scattered debris across Nantucket beaches. Its shares have fallen by about 5% since the incident, which is still under investigation. Investors will want to know what happened – and whether it’s likely to happen again. As Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo explained, wind turbine blades can break for a variety of reasons, including factors like poor quality control and defects during manufacturing. In May, a blade on the same model of turbine sustained damage at a wind farm being installed off the coast of England called Dogger Bank.
An initial environmental assessment of the accident, commissioned by GE Vernova and released last night, concluded that the blade materials are non-toxic and do not contain any PFAS, but could pose an injury risk for beachgoers.
About 25,000 people have been evacuated from Canada’s Jasper National Park as wildfires rage. There are 170 blazes in the Alberta province, and 375 in British Columbia. Officials warn that more than half are burning out of control, and the hot weather conditions have only made things worse. Fires are also burning near oil sands in Alberta that produce two-thirds of Canada’s oil, according to Reuters. Last year’s fire season was the worst on record, scorching some 37 million acres. Here is a look at the regional wildfire map as of this morning:
Tesla CEO Elon Musk yesterday denied reports that he planned to donate $45 million a month to support Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential bid. “What’s been reported in the media is simply not true,” he told Jordan Peterson. Musk, who endorsed Trump, established a Super PAC called the America PAC, which he said will “promote the principles that made America great in the first place.” Trump and Musk have reportedly been speaking by phone, with Musk trying to persuade Trump on the merits of EVs. Trump has said he will end the EV “mandate” if he’s elected in November and gut EV tax credits. But he has adjusted his tone as of late. Over the weekend he said he was “totally for” EVs.
In related news, Tesla reported Q2 earnings yesterday, with net profits down 45% year-over-year. Musk sought to calm investors’ nerves by focusing on the company’s ambitions for self-driving technology, and promised to unveil the robotaxi in October.
The Biden administration announced a new effort to “tackle climate super pollutants” like nitrous oxide, or N2O. This gas is far more potent than carbon dioxide but doesn’t last as long in the atmosphere. The White House said the new initiative would seek to reduce N2O emissions from industry by 50% next year compared to 2020 levels as companies work to curb their own pollution. The U.S. will also try to work with China to reduce these emissions from chemical plants across both countries. Together, the U.S. and China produce about 80% of industrial N2O pollution. “If successful, the two countries could reduce greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to taking approximately 50 million automobiles off the road at a fraction of the cost of other emission reduction efforts,” Inside Climate News reported.
The British royal family’s Crown Estate saw profits more than double over the last year, thanks largely to six offshore wind leasing deals.
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New York City may very well be the epicenter of this particular fight.
It’s official: the Moss Landing battery fire has galvanized a gigantic pipeline of opposition to energy storage systems across the country.
As I’ve chronicled extensively throughout this year, Moss Landing was a technological outlier that used outdated battery technology. But the January incident played into existing fears and anxieties across the U.S. about the dangers of large battery fires generally, latent from years of e-scooters and cellphones ablaze from faulty lithium-ion tech. Concerned residents fighting projects in their backyards have successfully seized upon the fact that there’s no known way to quickly extinguish big fires at energy storage sites, and are winning particularly in wildfire-prone areas.
How successful was Moss Landing at enlivening opponents of energy storage? Since the California disaster six months ago, more than 6 gigawatts of BESS has received opposition from activists explicitly tying their campaigns to the incident, Heatmap Pro® researcher Charlie Clynes told me in an interview earlier this month.
Matt Eisenson of Columbia University’s Sabin Center for Climate Law agreed that there’s been a spike in opposition, telling me that we are currently seeing “more instances of opposition to battery storage than we have in past years.” And while Eisenson said he couldn’t speak to the impacts of the fire specifically on that rise, he acknowledged that the disaster set “a harmful precedent” at the same time “battery storage is becoming much more present.”
“The type of fire that occurred there is unlikely to occur with modern technology, but the Moss Landing example [now] tends to come up across the country,” Eisenson said.
Some of the fresh opposition is in rural agricultural communities such as Grundy County, Illinois, which just banned energy storage systems indefinitely “until the science is settled.” But the most crucial place to watch seems to be New York City, for two reasons: One, it’s where a lot of energy storage is being developed all at once; and two, it has a hyper-saturated media market where criticism can receive more national media attention than it would in other parts of the country.
Someone who’s felt this pressure firsthand is Nick Lombardi, senior vice president of project development for battery storage company NineDot Energy. NineDot and other battery storage developers had spent years laying the groundwork in New York City to build out the energy storage necessary for the city to meet its net-zero climate goals. More recently they’ve faced crowds of protestors against a battery storage facility in Queens, and in Staten Island endured hecklers at public meetings.
“We’ve been developing projects in New York City for a few years now, and for a long time we didn’t run into opposition to our projects or really any sort of meaningful negative coverage in the press. All of that really changed about six months ago,” Lombardi said.
The battery storage developer insists that opposition to the technology is not popular and represents a fringe group. Lombardi told me that the company has more than 50 battery storage sites in development across New York City, and only faced “durable opposition” at “three or four sites.” The company also told me it has yet to receive the kind of email complaint flood that would demonstrate widespread opposition.
This is visible in the politicians who’ve picked up the anti-BESS mantle: GOP mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa’s become a champion for the cause, but mayor Eric Adams’ “City of Yes” campaign itself would provide for the construction of these facilities. (While Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani has not focused on BESS, it’s quite unlikely the climate hawkish democratic socialist would try to derail these projects.)
Lombardi told me he now views Moss Landing as a “catalyst” for opposition in the NYC metro area. “Suddenly there’s national headlines about what’s happening,” he told me. “There were incidents in the past that were in the news, but Moss Landing was headline news for a while, and that combined with the fact people knew it was happening in their city combined to create a new level of awareness.”
He added that six months after the blaze, it feels like developers in the city have a better handle on the situation. “We’ve spent a lot of time in reaction to that to make sure we’re organized and making sure we’re in contact with elected officials, community officials, [and] coordinated with utilities,” Lombardi said.
And more on the biggest conflicts around renewable energy projects in Kentucky, Ohio, and Maryland.
1. St. Croix County, Wisconsin - Solar opponents in this county see themselves as the front line in the fight over Trump’s “Big Beautiful” law and its repeal of Inflation Reduction Act tax credits.
2. Barren County, Kentucky - How much wood could a Wood Duck solar farm chuck if it didn’t get approved in the first place? We may be about to find out.
3. Iberia Parish, Louisiana - Another potential proxy battle over IRA tax credits is going down in Louisiana, where residents are calling to extend a solar moratorium that is about to expire so projects can’t start construction.
4. Baltimore County, Maryland – The fight over a transmission line in Maryland could have lasting impacts for renewable energy across the country.
5. Worcester County, Maryland – Elsewhere in Maryland, the MarWin offshore wind project appears to have landed in the crosshairs of Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency.
6. Clark County, Ohio - Consider me wishing Invenergy good luck getting a new solar farm permitted in Ohio.
7. Searcy County, Arkansas - An anti-wind state legislator has gone and posted a slide deck that RWE provided to county officials, ginning up fresh uproar against potential wind development.
Talking local development moratoria with Heatmap’s own Charlie Clynes.
This week’s conversation is special: I chatted with Charlie Clynes, Heatmap Pro®’s very own in-house researcher. Charlie just released a herculean project tracking all of the nation’s county-level moratoria and restrictive ordinances attacking renewable energy. The conclusion? Essentially a fifth of the country is now either closed off to solar and wind entirely or much harder to build. I decided to chat with him about the work so you could hear about why it’s an important report you should most definitely read.
The following chat was lightly edited for clarity. Let’s dive in.
Tell me about the project you embarked on here.
Heatmap’s research team set out last June to call every county in the United States that had zoning authority, and we asked them if they’ve passed ordinances to restrict renewable energy, or if they have renewable energy projects in their communities that have been opposed. There’s specific criteria we’ve used to determine if an ordinance is restrictive, but by and large, it’s pretty easy to tell once a county sends you an ordinance if it is going to restrict development or not.
The vast majority of counties responded, and this has been a process that’s allowed us to gather an extraordinary amount of data about whether counties have been restricting wind, solar and other renewables. The topline conclusion is that restrictions are much worse than previously accounted for. I mean, 605 counties now have some type of restriction on renewable energy — setbacks that make it really hard to build wind or solar, moratoriums that outright ban wind and solar. Then there’s 182 municipality laws where counties don’t have zoning jurisdiction.
We’re seeing this pretty much everywhere throughout the country. No place is safe except for states who put in laws preventing jurisdictions from passing restrictions — and even then, renewable energy companies are facing uphill battles in getting to a point in the process where the state will step in and overrule a county restriction. It’s bad.
Getting into the nitty-gritty, what has changed in the past few years? We’ve known these numbers were increasing, but what do you think accounts for the status we’re in now?
One is we’re seeing a high number of renewables coming into communities. But I think attitudes started changing too, especially in places that have been fairly saturated with renewable energy like Virginia, where solar’s been a presence for more than a decade now. There have been enough projects where people have bad experiences that color their opinion of the industry as a whole.
There’s also a few narratives that have taken shape. One is this idea solar is eating up prime farmland, or that it’ll erode the rural character of that area. Another big one is the environment, especially with wind on bird deaths, even though the number of birds killed by wind sounds big until you compare it to other sources.
There are so many developers and so many projects in so many places of the world that there are examples where either something goes wrong with a project or a developer doesn’t follow best practices. I think those have a lot more staying power in the public perception of renewable energy than the many successful projects that go without a hiccup and don’t bother people.
Are people saying no outright to renewable energy? Or is this saying yes with some form of reasonable restrictions?
It depends on where you look and how much solar there is in a community.
One thing I’ve seen in Virginia, for example, is counties setting caps on the total acreage solar can occupy, and those will be only 20 acres above the solar already built, so it’s effectively blocking solar. In places that are more sparsely populated, you tend to see restrictive setbacks that have the effect of outright banning wind — mile-long setbacks are often insurmountable for developers. Or there’ll be regulations to constrict the scale of a project quite a bit but don’t ban the technologies outright.
What in your research gives you hope?
States that have administrations determined to build out renewables have started to override these local restrictions: Michigan, Illinois, Washington, California, a few others. This is almost certainly going to have an impact.
I think the other thing is there are places in red states that have had very good experiences with renewable energy by and large. Texas, despite having the most wind generation in the nation, has not seen nearly as much opposition to wind, solar, and battery storage. It’s owing to the fact people in Texas generally are inclined to support energy projects in general and have seen wind and solar bring money into these small communities that otherwise wouldn’t get a lot of attention.