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Preparing for wildfire season can feel daunting. Reroof your house, the advice often goes. Bury your propane tank. Gather your important documents in a go bag.
That is all well and good, but let’s face it: The average American has nine unfinished home improvement projects at any given time, and it’s going to take a lot more than one weekend to figure out where you put your social security card.
Firefighters don’t call it “dirty August” for nothing, though, and the predictive maps for the coming month show “above normal” wildland fire potential for all of Washington and Oregon, most of Idaho and Montana, as well as large swaths of Texas, Alaska, and the Great Lakes region (fire potential will remain high in most of the Pacific Northwest through September, aided by persistent drought).
But if you’re feeling overwhelmed about where to start, here are seven things you can do today — each in 30 minutes or less — to set yourself up for the weeks ahead.
The USDA Forest Service offers a handy dashboard for understanding the wildfire risk in your community. Take a few minutes to punch in your locale at Wildfirerisk.org and learn how on the alert you need to be.
The results might surprise you. As an experiment, I entered my mother’s address in the Phoenix area and learned she has a “very high” risk of wildfire — “higher than 94%” of counties. Yikes!
If you have anything more than a “low” risk of wildfire, you should sign up for emergency alerts for your area. Fires can spring up and spread quickly, and there are a number of different ways to stay informed of developing hazards. Here are three places to start:
Make sure you’re opted in to receive FEMA wireless emergency alerts (WEAs). Here is a guide for enabling the alerts on an iPhone and here’s a guide for Android. WEAs do not track your location but are sent using local cell towers in order to be relevant to cell phone users in a specific area. They are also free to receive and don’t count toward text limits.
Create an account on Smart911.com. Though the service is most commonly used to provide 911 dispatchers with extra information about you when you call during an emergency, Smart911 is also used by many counties to provide targeted weather, traffic, and yes, fire alerts to their residents.
Also check if your county has its own emergency alert system that you should be registered with.
Just staying inside isn’t necessarily enough to keep you safe from wildfire smoke. If you live in an area prone to wildfires, or in an area downwind of them, you’ll want to invest in a good air purifier before everyone else makes a run on them as the season starts to pick up.
If you don’t have an air purifier, can’t afford one, or have questions about using a purifier or AC unit during a smoke event, here is our guide to staying safe when the air quality is bad no matter what is at your disposal.
Sorry, you’ve got to put on shoes for this one. But it also might be the single best thing you do ahead of wildfire season.
Homes primarily catch on fire not from being overcome by a wall of flame, but because of small embers that can fly more than a mile from the main wildfire and ignite roofs, decks, and yard debris.
Fire managers like to talk about this in terms of the ominously named “home ignition zone,” which is the buffer area around your house that you want to make as inhospitable to embers as possible. It is broken down into three zones: Zone 1 or “the Immediate Zone,” which is the area zero to 5 feet around the sides of your house; Zone 2, or the “intermediate zone,” which is between 5 to 30 feet around your home; and Zone 3, the “extended zone,” which is 30 to 200 feet away from your home.
For the sake of prioritizing, though, you want to start with your house and work outward. Take a slow walk around your house and make a to-do list of future projects with an eye out for the following potential issues, as recommended by the National Fire Protection Association:
• Do your gutters need to be cleaned? Make a note to prioritize doing so — the dead leaves and pine needles that accumulate there can easily catch fire.
• Are there places on your roof where leaf litter and debris are accumulating? Make a note to get those cleaned ASAP as well.
• Do any tree limbs hang over your house? Add those to your removal list.
• How does the area immediately around the sides of your house look? You’ll want to keep this clear of dead vegetation, trees, shrubs, and wood mulch that can ignite and spread to your home. Add a gardening weekend to your to-do list if need be.
• Do you have a deck? Make sure it’s clean of vegetation above and below. Don’t store things under your deck!
• Locate the vents on your house; these are potential openings where embers can get in. Make sure they’re clear of vegetation and properly covered.
• Is your lawn starting to look overgrown? You’ll want to keep it mowed to about four inches for the duration of fire season.
• Do you have a wood fence — AKA, a fire superhighway — connected to your house? You’re going to want to do something about that eventually, too.
• Make sure your home address is visible from the road.
Now I know how we feel about home improvement projects, particularly ones that require a lot of labor, like redoing a garden, or money, like paying an arborist to cut down overhanging tree branches. But firefighters won’t waste time or their safety by defending homes that are dangerous. “You just drive past and you go to the places that you can save that have done some things to protect their own homes,” firefighter Bre Orcasitas told the authors of the forthcoming book This Is Wildfire: How to Protect Yourself, Your Home, and Your Community in the Age of Heat.
It might take a lot of work to get started, but in the event of a nearby wildfire, checking items off the to-do list you just created also might ultimately save you your home. Once back inside, pull out a calendar and set aside time to actually get these projects done.
Ready for a more robust checklist? Here’s the full home ignition zone task list from the National Fire Protection Association and here’s an additional checklist that focuses on potential design weaknesses of your home. This Is Wildfire is also an excellent guide for anyone who lives in fire country, with many additional tips for time-pressed individuals who want projects they can tackle after work or over a weekend. It can be pre-ordered here.
Maybe you put together an evacuation bag during your first wildfire season and have since forgotten about it. Maybe you never made a go bag at all. Now, though, is the time to make sure you have the basics set aside in case you need to quickly leave your home.
If you have an old go bag stuffed in a closet somewhere or buried in the back of your car, quickly look through it to make sure the items have not expired and all the batteries still work. There is no need to get extreme and fill it up with treasured heirlooms when there’s no active wildfire in your area, but do start setting aside irreplaceable items like photographs and beloved mementos if you get a pre-evacuation alert. And yes, now might finally be the time to start figuring out where your important documents are so they’re easily grabbed in the event you need to leave.
There are lots of slightly different checklists for preparing a go bag from scratch, but if you need a place to begin, here’s a good one. Here’s another that is specific to pet and livestock owners. You can also find pre-made emergency kits online to take some of the work out of getting started, though they tend to be pricier than assembling the items yourself.
Save this page (and if you’ve bookmarked InciWeb in the past, make sure the URL is up to date since it’s changed).
InciWeb is an emergency incident information page that offers the latest news on wildfires, including if a burn is prescribed, its containment, the number of responding personnel, potential evacuation orders, the firefighting outlook, and contact information if you need to learn more. If a fire is burning near you, it is the best source of general information, though you don’t want to use this to replace emergency alerts.
You probably check the weather in the morning anyway. When you do, keep an eye peeled for “red flag warnings” — many weather apps, including the one on iPhones, will display this, but you can also check the National Weather Service for alerts.
A red flag warning signifies that there is an increased risk of a fire starting due to warm temperatures (above 75 degrees Fahrenheit), low humidity (25% or less), and/or gusty winds (15 mph or greater). Lightning storms during prolonged dry spells can also trigger red flag warnings.
Red flag warnings tell locals they should be careful when extinguishing cigarettes outdoors and avoid any unnecessary burning of letters from estranged husbands. But the alerts also tell residents to be prepared in case a wildfire breaks out — as LAist says, consider it the “set” in “ready, set, go.”
And if a fire does ignite in your area, you’ll now know what to do. You took a day to prepare. Stay safe, stay calm, follow directions from authorities. And seriously, pack that go bag.
Read more advice about wildfires:
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This year’s ocean-heating phenomenon could make climate change seem less bad than it really is — at least in the U.S.
You may have heard that we could be in for a “super” or even a “super duper” El Niño this year. The difference is non-technical, a matter of how warm the sea surface temperature in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation region of the central-eastern Pacific Ocean gets. An El Niño forms when the region is at least half a degree Celsius warmer than average, which causes more heat to be released into the atmosphere and affects global weather patterns. A super El Niño describes an anomaly of 2 degrees or higher. Some models predict an anomaly of over 3 degrees higher than average for this year.
If a super El Niño forms — and that is still a big if, about a one-in-four chance — it would be the fourth such event in just over 40 years. But the impacts could be even more severe, simply because the world is hotter today than it was in the previous super El Niño years of 1983, 1998, and 2016.
“2016 would be an unusually cold year if it occurred today,” Zeke Hausfather, the climate research lead for payment processing giant Stripe and a research scientist at Berkeley Earth, told me. “1998 would be exceptionally cold.”
And yet in a strange twist, a 2026-2027 El Niño event might actually make Americans care less about climate change. Though many parts of the world are likely to get clobbered by El Niño’s characteristic combination of hotter, drier weather, the phenomenon has the potential to alleviate some of the extreme weather we’ve seen recently in the United States.
For example, warmer, wetter conditions in the southern U.S., milder winters in the north, and increased wind shear in the Atlantic hurricane basin are all classic El Niño signatures in North America.
“It may actually mean a better snow season for the Western U.S. and the mountains, hopefully recovering our snowpack if it’s not too warm,” Hausfather said. “We might benefit from higher rainfall” next winter, which could help lift widespread drought conditions in the southwest. High wind shear usually results in reduced hurricane activity in the Atlantic by depriving the storm systems of their heat engines and causing them to be too lopsided to organize into a full-blown cyclone.
Though the body of evidence for climate change remains incontrovertible, the temporary reprieve in some of its more visible effects will almost certainly make some Americans less concerned. Blame it on evolutionary biology. Brett Pelham, a social psychologist at Montgomery College who researches egocentrism and biases, told me that humans are hardwired to pay attention to the conditions happening directly around them. “That’s great if you’re living 20,000 or 80,000 years ago,” he said. “But today, we’re pumping tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and it’s a recipe for disaster because people only care deeply about that problem if they feel the heat on a pretty chronic basis where they live.”
People are generally less likely to believe the planet is warming on a snowy day in March than they are in the summer, and a lower average state temperature is about as reliable a predictor of climate change skepticism as being a Republican, even when controlling for income, party affiliation, education, and age. Given that it is, in theory, easier to convince someone living in scorching hot Phoenix that greenhouse gases are warming the atmosphere than someone living by a lake in Minnesota, if an El Niño mellows out some extreme weather trends in the U.S. this year and next, it could also mellow some of the sense of urgency to act.
“It’s a definite implication of my work that day-to-day variation, monthly variation, and geographical variation matter,” Pelham said.
“If my data are true,” he added, “it’s going to be true on average that in places that have an unseasonably cool summer or winter, there’s going to be a temporary shift in the average attitude.”
Such shifts affect the average by just a few points either way — “they’re not night and day, like ‘I believed in climate change and now I don’t,’” Pelham stressed. But it’s undoubtedly ironic — and concerning — that heading into what could be one of the hottest years on the planet in recent history, Americans may be predisposed to feeling relatively safe.
Other parts of the world won’t have such luxury. Even a normal-strength El Niño, which looks all but certain to form this year, could cause major damage, from wildfires in parched Indonesia to catastrophic floods in East Africa to water rationing in South America. In Peru and Ecuador, El Niño is already a “current event,” Ángel F. Adames Corraliza, an atmospheric researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and a 2025 MacArthur Fellow, told me. Warm coastal conditions off the continent — a known, albeit not guaranteed, global El Niño precursor — are causing deluges, landslides, and heat waves in the upper northwest corner of South America. “You can see how the impacts start extending towards other parts of the world until it reaches us,” he said.
It is possible to combat local biases. Pelham told me other researchers have found that images can break through our egocentrism. So “if we see more pictures of melting glaciers or waters rising in our own backyards, we would start to say, ‘Oh my goodness, we really have to do something about this global problem,” he said.
But to that end, coverage of climate change that might have this effect is becoming rarer. Stories about global warming have dropped about 38% since 2021; even people working in climate-related industries have “a kind of exhaustion with ‘climate’ as the right frame through which to understand the fractious mixture of electrification, pollution reduction, clean energy development, and other goals that people who care about climate change actually pursue,” my colleague Robinson Meyer wrote based on the results of latest Heatmap Insiders Survey.
Of course, there is no promise that the U.S. will skirt disaster because of El Niño. Increased rainfall means more floods and landslides; if the El Niño pushes temperatures up too high, snowpack will once again be an issue next winter. All it takes is one big hurricane forming and making landfall for it to be considered a bad storm year, which is as much a roll of the dice as anything else. And because El Niño releases ocean heat into the atmosphere, the periods immediately following it are often about two-tenths of a degree Celsius warmer, increasing the severity of heat waves and droughts. Compounded by climate change, that puts 2027 on track to be potentially the hottest year the planet has seen in human history.
“We might be at 1.45 degrees Celsius [above preindustrial levels] next year from human activity, and we might end up at 1.65 degrees because there’s a very strong El Niño,” Hausfather said. But for context, “we are seeing that much warmth added to the climate system from human activity roughly every decade,” he told me. That is, “— we’re adding a permanent super El Niño-worth of heat to the climate system” via the continued burning of fossil fuels.
There couldn’t be a worse time to let up on our collective sense of climate urgency, to put it mildly. But if El Niño makes conditions in the U.S. appear any better, then even if there’s disaster elsewhere, “you’re going to give a sigh of relief,” Pelham predicted. “You’re going to feel like [climate change is] not as bad as people have hyped it up to be.”
Current conditions: Wildfires are raging across the Southeast, with more than 27,000 acres alight in southern Georgia alone • At least two separate blazes have also broken out in Japan’s northeastern Iwate prefecture • A late blizzard is dumping as much as 20 inches of snow on northern Manitoba, Canada.
Yet another French energy giant is lining up for a payout from the Trump administration to abandon its offshore wind projects in the United States. Utility giant Engie is in talks with the federal government about a “possible refund” for its U.S. offshore wind leases as President Donald Trump looks to halt expansion of an energy source that’s quickly growing in Europe and Asia. Since Trump returned to office last year, the company has paused development on three offshore wind projects and already took a loss on its joint venture Ocean Winds. In an interview with Reuters, Engie CEO Catherine MacGregor confirmed that the utility was pursuing the kind of deal that French oil and gas giant TotalEnergies negotiated in recent weeks. “We’ll see about these terms. An agreement is possible depending on the discussions.” She noted that she wasn’t against offshore wind. “Economically and also in terms of public acceptance, I strongly believe in offshore wind power. Of course, you have to plan the projects well, you have to involve the fishermen,” she added. Still, “new offshore wind projects are going to be complicated regardless of the administration.”
The $1 billion TotalEnergies deal may also stand on shaky ground. As Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo reported in back-to-back scoops, documents suggest the Trump administration’s legal argument for drawing on a federal settlement fund rests on shaky ground. Other documents show that TotalEnergies isn't required to make any new investments in U.S. oil and gas under the agreement, contrary to what Trump officials said about the deal.

Long accused of maintaining an overcapacity of factories to churn out solar panels, China’s photovoltaic output is now in soaring demand as the world scrambles to cope with the energy shock brought on by the Iran War’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. New data from the think tank Ember shows that China’s solar exports reached a record 68 gigawatts in March, double the previous month. When Ember analyzed the Chinese customs authority data, its researchers found that the exports are equivalent to Spain’s entire solar capacity, surpassing the previous record set in August 2025 by 49%. At least 50 countries — you read that right — set all-time records for Chinese solar imports in March, with another 60 seeing the highest levels in six months. Compared to February numbers (the war began on February 28), Chinese solar exports grew by 141% to India, 384% to Malaysia, 391% to Ethiopia, and 519% to Nigeria.
“Fossil shocks are boosting the solar surge,” Euan Graham, senior analyst at Ember, said in a statement. “Solar has already become the engine of the global economy, and now the current fossil fuel price shocks are taking it up a gear. Countries are importing solar panels at record levels, and building up their own domestic assembly and manufacturing capabilities to address surging global demand.”
Elon Musk is betting even bigger on artificial intelligence. Tesla plans to boost spending to $25 billion this year as the electric automaker cum battery and solar giant invests in self-driving taxis, zero-emissions trucks, robots, and a sweeping new chip factory to power its AI ambitions. During a call with investors on Thursday, Musk said there would be a “very significant increase in capital expenditure” this year, which “will be well justified considering substantially increased revenue streams,” according to the Financial Times. The forecast is nearly triple the $8.5 billion Tesla spent last year.
The shift comes as the U.S. faces what Heatmap contributor Andrew Moseman called the “great American EV contraction” that took place after the Trump administration ended federal tax credits for electric vehicles last fall.
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In a nuclear industry filled with startups promising to reinvent the reactor, Blue Energy stands out as a company promising instead to transform how good old-fashioned light water reactors are built. The firm wants to prefabricate its small modular reactors in a factory, making each one as uniform and replicable as possible. “For the first time, a nuclear project is designed so that it doesn’t need to rely primarily on taxpayer dollars and ratepayers to backstop risk,” Jake Jurewicz, Blue Energy chief executive and co-founder, told S&P Global. In a press release, Jurewicz called its forthcoming debut facility, a 1.5-gigawatt complex in Texas, “the first project-financeable nuclear plant.”
Shares in GE Vernova spiked 14% on Wednesday after the energy industrial giant reported surging demand for its gas turbines and nuclear reactors to power the AI boom in its latest quarterly earnings. As I told you yesterday, GE Vernova’s head of government affairs and policy, Roger Martella, said this week that the project to build North America’s first small modular reactor at Ontario Power Generation’s Darlington plant was on track to produce power by 2030. In a note to investors, the investment bank Jeffries said soaring gas demand and “green-shoots for nuclear” sent the price upward.
If online gambling services like Kalshi and Polymarket allow people to bet on something, do the incentives for the worse outcome change? Turns out, obviously, the answer is yes. Just consider this example. Polymarket allowed people to bet on daily temperatures from some official weather stations. Now Météo-France, the official French meteorological agency, is accusing someone of using an artificial heat source to manipulate reads at a station and win bets.
Rob dives into Fervo’s S-1 filing with Princeton professor Jesse Jenkins and Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin.
Fervo Energy has become a darling of the clean energy industry by using workers and technology from the oil and gas sector to unlock zero-carbon, all-day geothermal electricity. Last week, Fervo filed to go public, giving us the first deep look at its finances and long-term expansion plans. What’s the bull case, the bear case, and the fine print?
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob is joined by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, as well as Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin to discuss the big news from Fervo’s new filing. Why are people so excited about Fervo? What are the biggest financial questions in its growth plans? And why does it need to go public now?
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Here is an excerpt of their conversation:
Robinson Meyer: Jesse, one of the things that people are most excited about with Fervo — and one of the things, frankly, that you got me excited about with regard to Fervo and other enhanced geothermal companies — is that this is dispatchable power. It’s not only that it’s 24-7, but much like like we currently flex gas plants up or down to meet demand on the grid, we might be able to flex geothermal plants up and down. Can you just describe like how that would work and why it’s important to kind of overall value of this energy technology?
Jesse Jenkins: Yeah, so most people think of geothermal as a kind of zero marginal cost resource. It has no fuel cost, right? It’s producing power that’s on the margin, basically free. And so it would make sense to operate it like a “baseload resource” running 24-7, because why would you ever turn off?
The reality is that if you are deploying geothermal in a world with lots of cheap solar, for example, or wind in other parts of the West, there are many hours when power is literally worthless or very inexpensive, right? You’ve got wind and solar flooding the market at also zero marginal cost. And so producing power in those hours, you can do it, but why would you? It’s not valuable. When it’s valuable is the times when the sun is setting and the wind is dying down and you would otherwise have to fire up gas power plants.
So one of the cool things about enhanced geothermal is that you’re basically engineering a fracture network inside a very impermeable rock, right? You basically have a container around it of granite. And that means that very little fluid or pressure will leak out of the reservoir if you inject more fluid into it. And so you’ve basically built yourself a pumped hydrate reservoir underground for free, because that’s what you needed to create your heat exchanger to get the heat out for your power plant.
You can find a full transcript of the episode here.
Mentioned:
From Heatmap: 8 Things We Learned From Fervo’s IPO Filing
Jesse’s report on how to scale geothermal nationwide through experience-induced cost reductions
Jesse’s report on how geothermal can be a flexible resource, like natural gas
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.