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For those looking forward to bidding good riddance to a hot July, I have some bad news for you: Get ready for hot August..
If you thought it couldnât possibly get hotter than July â the month that set a new record for warmest day ever â think again. Forecasters predict August will be just as extreme â and that those records wonât last long.
âIt is something that can't be ruled out, especially over the next week as we deal with the typical peak of summer,â Tyler Roys, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, told me.
According to Roys, the melting glaciers around the Arctic in particular have contributed to the intense heat this summer. As bright glaciers give way to darker land, the Earth absorbs more heat, trapping that energy within the atmosphere instead of bouncing it back out into space.
âThe more areas that are dealing with above the historical average for temperatures, the more likely you are to see the global temperature average record be set,â Roys explained. âFor some areas that have seen prolonged heat this summer, especially in the West in the United States and across southeastern Europe, the heat can create a nasty feedback loop that is extremely hard to break.â
In a well-timed announcement, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres released a call to action last week for countries to respond to extreme heat by investing in low-carbon cooling systems, worker protections, and improved heat-related mortality data, beyond a focus on phasing out fossil fuels. âClimate change is delivering a hotter and more dangerous world for all of us. And we are not prepared,â the report reads.
A wildfire that started in Northern California on Wednesday has grown into one of the largest in the stateâs recent history. The Park Fire prompted evacuations in parts of Butte and Tehama county. Since then, Plumas and Shasta counties have also been affected by evacuations. As of this morning, more than 360,000 acres had burned, and only 12% of the fire had been contained. Almost 5,000 personnel and 33 helicopters are currently attempting to put out the fire.
Climate scientist Daniel Swain of the University of California, Los Angeles called the fireâs behavior âextraordinaryâ in a Thursday live briefing. In less than 24 hours, the fire had scorched through 40 to 50 miles of land. âCalifornia, until very recently, was not really at the epicenterâ of wildfire activity this summer, Swain said. The Park Fire has just changed the game.
Another concern is smoke traveling to other states. In Nevada, which will see minor to moderate extreme heat risk this week, the smoke might impact air quality and visibility. On the other hand, the smoke could also lower temperatures by blocking sunlight. Las Vegas could hit up to 110 degrees on Thursday and Friday â which, while scorching, is still lower than recent temperatures in the city.
Those in the Midwest and eastern Southwest can prepare for an especially sweaty week. Oklahoma, New Mexico, and northern Texas can expect the worst of it until Wednesday, when the heat will move east into Mississippi. Kansas could see temperatures ranging from 100 to 109 degrees on Wednesday, according to Brian Berg, a meteorologist in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationâs Kansas office meteorologist. Wichita could come close to breaking its record of 109 degrees, set in 1934.
On Friday, the heat will be concentrated in the Southeast, but the heat risk will also go back to increasing in the Pacific Northwest.
Cities across Japan can expect temperatures above 100 degrees to persist this week. The number of heat strokes in Japan has been growing consistently since 1995, The Guardian reported, and the countryâs meteorological agency has warned that this yearâs summer temperatures might be even higher than in 2023 â Japanâs hottest summer on record. The data is particularly concerning considering Japanâs large senior population. As of last year, almost 30% of the countryâs population is over 65 years old â the group is more vulnerable to heat illnesses and other health complications brought by extreme temperatures.
Iran was forced to shut down government offices and commercial institutions on Sunday due to extreme temperatures. Over 200 people were hospitalized due to heat strokes. The day before, the government had cut working hours short in its agencies. In Tehran, temperatures went up to 107 degrees, but other provinces in the country saw up to 121 degrees. On Tuesday, Iranâs total energy consumption reached 78,106 megawatts, a record, and the closures were intended to conserve energy in addition to protecting workers. While some clouds and rain are expected today, temperatures will continue at extreme levels.
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We didnât know days like this could happen. Then we learned how bad they really are.
When I woke up this morning in Chicago, the Air Quality Index was in the 300s, and I could barely see the top of the skyscraper across the street. The weather app on my phone featured a little image of a man wearing a World War I-style full-face gas mask. Thatâs fun, I thought. I didnât know it could do that.
I went downstairs. Old photographs of the city were hanging in the hotel lobby â girls playing in bathing suits next to the lake â and I realized that the haze shrouding the old Lakeshore Drive condos was in fact haze, smoke, particulate matter, and not a lens artifact. It really used to be that smoky all the time, back before the Clean Air Act. Then I glanced up and saw that the haze out the window was far worse than the century-old pollution in the picture.
Itâs significant, I think, that a mass smoke-out like this has now happened to the eastern U.S. for a second time. Second times matter. When exhaust from Canadian wildfires blanketed the Northeast and parts of the Midwest in June 2023, exposing more Americans to wildfire smoke than on any previous day in history, one could almost write it off as a freak occurrence. It was upsetting, sure, and reminiscent of Californiaâs climate-addled amber skies. But didnât wildfire smoke also descend on New England once in the 1780s? Even on a warmer planet, couldnât this remain a once-in-a-century blip?
Twice in just over three years, though â thatâs more than a hiccup. Thatâs almost a trend. To get smoked out once may be regarded as a misfortune; for it to recur again, without any plan to respond, starts to look like carelessness. The federal government is doing roughly diddly squat about adaptation â President Trump can build a fan on the border and make Canada pay for it â but state and local governments across the eastern U.S. will now need to reckon with a new form of extreme weather. You grew up with snow days, but now weâll have smoke days â and schools and sports leagues and concert venues will need rules about how to deal with them. When should games be canceled, tickets refunded? Is smoke more like a heat wave or a hurricane? Hotels and office buildings will need to review their ventilation policies and possibly upgrade their equipment; municipal emergency response plans will be revised and printed in triplicate.
All this will happen because the smoke has invaded a second time â and arguably a third, if you count last yearâs minor episode â and that means it could come back again. For that reason, this event strikes me as a much bigger deal than what happened in 2023. The smoke is now a fact of life; institutions will need a policy about it. The tortious creep of litigation risk will enforce that outcome, even if no federal official enforces it.
So it goes. But to be clear, this new inconvenience is not what worries me most about todayâs events. No, what frightens me instead is that todayâs airborne toxic event is not something that was supposed to happen. Until a few years ago, we had not thought too hard about whether a major smoke exposure event like this could happen on the East Coast at all. It had not seemed possible.
For years, economists and climate scientists have simulated how global warming might affect the U.S. and global economies. They poured years of careful work into this modeling, and they simulated â with ever-increasing levels of statistical persnicketiness â what extreme heat and sea-level rise might do to agricultural yield, labor productivity, energy demand, heat mortality, and real estate values, among other potential sources of damage. This work was useful; it improved our practical understanding of coastal flooding, to name one example. It also helped calibrate U.S. regulatory policy, even if it never achieved the crowning heights of helping to set a national carbon tax.
Yet these careful models almost never accounted for mass smoke exposure days. Indeed, the kind of thing that happened this week â when heavy haze blows down from Canada and exposes more than 100 million people to hazardous air â was not countenanced by the simulations at all. Only in recent years did economists begin to study events like these, and only because mass exposure events like 2023âs happened first.
Weâve long known that the tiny shreds of particulate matter in wildfire smoke dance across the bodyâs barriers and penetrate its deep places, etching their way into lung, heart, and brain tissue. Inflammation follows. What makes days like today unique is the scale: Tens of millions of Americans inhaling wildfire smoke at the same time. As weâve started studying this phenomenon, itâs become clear that the mortality effects of days like today, the deaths elevated above what youâd otherwise expect, can persist for years. That becomes extraordinarily expensive for society.
How costly? âWhen monetized,â a group of Stanford and Princeton economists wrote in Nature last year, in the first major study on the topic, âthe climate-driven smoke deaths result in economic damages that exceed existing estimates of climate-driven damages from all other causes combined in the U.S.A.â
You read that right: The cost of climate-worsened wildfire smoke alone is larger than what earlier studies said every other estimated cost of climate change would be, combined.
To summarize, wildfire smoke did not appear in our economic simulations of climate change. As recently as a few years ago, we did not really know that days like today â or June 7, 2023; or September 15, 2020; or September 9, 2020 â could occur. Then they happened. And happened again. And then we studied them and discovered that, in fact, they may be more expensive for the U.S. economy than we once thought climate change itself would be.
That worries me. Now we know these smoke-out days can happen; now they are fast becoming a rare but predictable feature of summer life. But until recently they were unimaginable. What other ignominies, what other tail risks and airborne surprises, are lurking in the uncontrolled experiment weâre running on the biosphere? What else â unforecast, unmodeled, unstudied, unthought of â lies ahead? After 10 years of covering the climate system, I am not someone who lies sleepless fretting about atmospheric CO2. But I do wonder what else we donât know enough about to ask.
âMicrosoft, you canât hide, we can see your dirty side!â
Protestors interrupted one of the final sessions of PNW Climate Week â a conference that brings together climate leaders across Washington, Oregon, and British Columbia â objecting to Microsoftâs rising carbon emissions from data centers and partnerships with oil and gas companies. The companyâs Chief Sustainability Officer Melanie Nakagawa was having a one on one conversation with GeekWire climate reporter Lisa Stiffler at Seattleâs City Hall when protestors carrying signs reading âMicrosoftâs AI pollutesâ and other slogans began shouting from the audience.
I was there, having just moderated the prior panel on how to finance Washingtonâs clean energy ambitions. Early on there were some rumblings in the crowd from up front. âClimate leaders donât build gas pipelines in Moses Lake,â was the first objection I heard clearly. It came shortly after Nakagawa kicked off the conversation by highlighting Microsoftâs partnership with sustainable aviation fuel startup Twelve, which recently opened its first commercial-scale SAF plant in Moses Lake, Washington. The tech giant has supported the project through a strategic investment from its Climate Innovation Fund, as well as an offtake agreement for the fuel that will help offset its emissions from employee travel.
Whether Microsoft is building a gas pipeline in this particular community I havenât been able to determine, though it seems irrelevant to Twelveâs SAF facility, which doesnât rely on natural gas. But it is true that Microsoft is one of the largest power consumers in Grant County, Washington, home to Moses Lake, where a natural gas pipeline operator is looking to expand its network to accommodate data center load growth.
Another audience interruption was more pointed. âHow does signing a 20-year deal with Chevron help you reach your clean energy goals?,â one protestor asked, referring to Microsoft's recently announced power purchase agreement with Chevron for nearly 2.7 gigawatts of natural gas-fired power to supply a West Texas data center. The project represents one of the largest gas-powered artificial intelligence developments in the U.S., and Stiffler acknowledged that she had been planning to ask about it, herself.
Nakagawa answered the question. at least in part, saying âthat project with Chevron is initially using natural gas and itâs a natural gas contract,â before emphasizing that the company has built âover 4.5 gigawatts of clean energy already today,â and remains committed to balancing speed-to-power with its clean energy goals. She added that, âwith this deal in particular, weâre looking at a range of tools in our toolbox to ensure that we can continue to grow our power, but also do so in a way that is responsible and sustainable.â She stopped short, however, of making any commitments to transitioning the project to renewable energy over time.
The session became more chaotic from there. Another protestor stood up, shouting that âMicrosoft is enabling genocide in Palestine.â Other activists joined in, while still other audience members shouted back. As Nakagawa recovered and resumed answering a question from Stiffler about Microsoftâs recent decision to pause its carbon removal purchases after years of dominating the nascent industry, protestors throughout the crowd began a chant of âMicrosoft, you canât hide, we can see your dirty side.â Security eventually shepherded many of them out.
Stiffler continued speaking with Nakawaga about the companyâs clean energy efforts, touching on many of the protestorsâ concerns as she asked about community opposition to data centers, the role of large corporations in the clean energy transition, and whether Microsoft can realistically achieve its goal of becoming carbon negative by 2030.
Nakawaga emphasized that the company must, âfirst and foremost, listen to where the communities are and what they are calling for.â Regarding the concerns she hears most often, she explained that âfirst has been transparency. Second has been around resource uses and what are we doing about those resource uses. Weâre hearing about jobs and employment and investments in education, investments in housing.â
If this session was any indication, those concerns wonât go away anytime soon.
Heat kills more Americans than any other extreme weather event in the United States. But wildfire smoke â while not strictly âweatherâ â appears to kill even more. Current excess death estimates put American heat mortality at about 10,000 people per year, or possibly as high as 12,000. Recent studies on wildfire PM 2.5 exposure suggest a mortality of double that: 24,000 all-cause deaths every year.
Needless to say, wildfire smoke is definitely not something you want to inhale if you can avoid it. (And really, you should try to.) But for the 115 million Americans in the Great Lakes and Northeast regions of the country whoâve been exposed to hazardous air from the fires in Ontario and Minnesota this week, thereâs a chance that the damage is already done. According to a wildfire smoke mortality estimation tool from Cornell Universityâs School of Public Health and the Northeast Regional Climate Center, the total mortality for this smoke event could already be as high as 424 people so far, including nearly 100 in Michigan and more than 50 in both New York and Wisconsin.
Alistair Hayden, an assistant professor of practice in Cornellâs Department of Public and Ecosystem Health, stressed to me that the tool is a âfirst draft,â and that his team is still working on getting it peer-reviewed. âWe intend it as a hypothesis that people can test in the coming weeks or months to confirm our numbers,â Hayden told me. âIâm really hoping to be proven wrong.â
But Hayden also emphasized that while the West Coast might historically be where many smoke-related deaths have occurred, âthis is the third out of four years [in the Northeast] that weâre having the smoke, so it seems like something we should be planning for,â he said. âIt reminds me of that saying: âFool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.ââ
Admittedly, the smoke this week is a bit of a freak occurrence. A cooler-than-average sea surface pattern across the North Pacific, known as a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, helped produce weak low-pressure areas in the northwestern part of the United States, which in turn allowed for heat domes to develop across the Southwest and Plains. After one did just that earlier this month, the hot, high-pressure dome then shifted north, where it developed âdryness across Canada, followed by the lightning-producing thunderstorms,â Chad Merrill, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, told me. Then, boom: widespread fires.
âIt is very unusual to have a combination of an El Niño and a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation,â Merrill went on. âThatâs one of the unusual factors this year, which contributed to the heat dome being farther north in that particular position.â The heat dome and jet stream then worked together to direct the thick smoke down into some of the most populous regions of Canada and the U.S.
Thatâs what makes this particular smoke event so bad. Were the smoke blowing over remote regions of Canada, as it would under more usual conditions, âthen the big cities and the Great Lakes wouldnât experience the smoke; it would have gone north toward the Hudson Bay and then Greenland,â Merrill said. In fact, the Canadian fire season is tracking below average overall; itâs the meteorological conditions that made this weekâs smoke events, as one outlet put it, âthe perfect storm.â
Wildfire smoke in the region is not historically anomalous, however. A 1903 article in The New York Times describes a âyellow dayâ similar to smoky events in 1894, 1881, and earlier. But large-scale burns in Canadaâs dense, remote boreal, which produce more smoke, are increasing. Though itâs difficult to attribute any one wildfire directly to climate change because of the complex nature of such events, we do know that fire weather is becoming more common with the warming of the atmosphere from greenhouse gas emissions. As modeled by Zeke Hausfather in the Friday edition of his newsletter The Climate Brink, âhotter, drier seasons burn the mostâ in Canada â and ârecent years cluster thereâ as the country has outpaced the global average in warming.
But as Hausfather also writes, âWhile overall area burned is the climate-linked trend, who breathes the smoke on a given week in July is mostly driven by the weather.â This is similar to the way that, though it may be a quiet year in the Atlantic, it only takes one hurricane making landfall in the right (or wrong) spot for the season to be remembered as catastrophic.
On the other hand, as foolish as it might be for the Central Plains and East Coast to still believe smoke is the exclusive domain of Westerners, it is also a mistake to assume smoke only comes from without. As I reported earlier this year, the Eastern half of the country has seen a 10-fold jump in the frequency of large burns over the last 40 years. Nowhere is safe from the smoke.
Planning and preparation, then, should be paramount. But as Grist learned last month, there are no established Air Quality Index numbers that would trigger the postponement, relocation, or cancellation of, say, a FIFA World Cup game, including the final, which is set to be played in New Jersey on Sunday. White House officials are reportedly meeting with FIFAâs president on Friday to discuss contingencies, given the unhealthy air quality in the region.
Which brings us back to Haydenâs modeling. He offered a note of optimism in that research by Stanfordâs Sam Heft-Neal and his colleagues indicates that emergency room visits do not rise in tandem with increasing wildfire smoke. âAs smoke gets bad, the health impacts get bigger. But then as smoke gets worse and worse, the amount of health impacts actually goes down, measured for emergency room visits,â Hayden said. âThe idea is that people modify their behavior in higher smokeâ â say, by staying indoors, wearing masks, or canceling outdoor events.
Itâs time to treat smoke as an East Coast phenomenon, in other words. Doing so will save lives. âWill [smoke events] become more frequent in the future? Most likely we will see a recurrence,â Merrill, the meteorologist, told me. âHow often they happen is yet to be determined.â