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On dry conditions in the Big Apple, biodiversity goals, and the future of the IRA

Current conditions: Schools are closed this week in Lahore, Pakistan, due to unprecedented pollution • An extreme red alert for torrential rain has been issued in Barcelona • A storm system in the Caribbean could strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday.
The COP16 biodiversity summit in Colombia came to a disappointing close over the weekend, with negotiators failing to agree on how the world can monitor and fund nature restoration. There were high hopes that the meeting would produce a roadmap for protecting large swathes of land, water, and degraded ecosystems by 2030, but rich nations blocked a proposal for a new fund to help pay for poorer nations’ efforts. “This COP was meant to be a status check on countries’ progress toward saving nature and all indicators on that status are blinking red,” said Crystal Davis, the World Resources Institute’s global director of food, land, and water. There were some bright spots, though, including the creation of a subsidiary body that will ensure Indigenous peoples have a seat at the negotiating table in future UN conservation talks, and a plan to encourage corporations that derive biotechnology products from nature to pay into a conservation fund.
New Yorkers are being asked to conserve water after Mayor Eric Adams placed the city under a drought watch. Last month was the driest NYC October on record, The Washington Post reported. Just 0.01 inches of rain fell in Central Park, far short of the 4 inches or so that usually fall during the month. Residents have been told to take shorter showers and fix leaks, and Adams called on the city’s agencies to draw up plans to conserve water. “Mother Nature is in charge, and so we must make sure we adjust,” he said. More than half the country was under drought conditions last month.
In case you missed it: Regulators from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Friday rejected a proposal to increase the load capacity of Talen Energy’s Susquehanna nuclear facility in Pennsylvania. The proposal was part of a deal to supply more power to a nearby Amazon data center. FERC voted 2-1 to block the move, citing concerns about grid reliability and rising energy bills for the public. FERC Chairman Willie Phillips dissented, and said the decision “fails to recognize the creative approach the agreement took and fails to demonstrate flexibility to ensure the grid can reliably and affordably handle rising demand.”
The CEO of oil giant TotalEnergies called for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump to keep existing environmental laws in place if he wins this week’s election. Patrick Pouyanné told the Financial Times that revoking climate rules enacted under President Biden would create a “wild west” situation and hurt the oil industry’s reputation. “My view is that this will not help the industry, but on the contrary it will demonize, and then the dialogue will be even more antagonized,” Pouyanné said. Trump has promised to rescind much of the Inflation Reduction Act funding. Exxon’s chief financial officer Kathy Mikells told the FT that the IRA is helping support the economy, and “that gives a lot of people a lot of incentive to stand behind the IRA.”
Canada, the fourth-largest oil producer in the world, will publish a proposal today to cap greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel energy production. Energy is Canada’s highest-polluting sector, with oil and gas accounting for a quarter of all emissions and producing “more than double the greenhouse gas pollution than all other industries combined,” according to Hermine Landry, a spokeswoman for Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault. Landry told Reuters that the cap-and-trade system would incentivize high-emitting companies to invest in projects that reduce pollution, though an earlier report from Deloitte said the cap would likely nudge companies to cut production. Canada has a goal of curbing emissions by at least 40% compared to 2005 levels by the end of the decade. Whether this new proposal comes into effect will depend largely on the outcome of the next election, set to be held in late 2025.
“This car makes the kind of sound that you would expect to hear when an omniscient, all-powerful alien force swoops through the clouds in a sci-fi movie, the gut-shaking tone backing the moment when everyone realizes that humanity is about to get served.” –Tim Stevens at The Verge tries to describe the digital acceleration tone produced by Rolls-Royce’s first EV, the ultra-luxury Spectre, which starts at $420,000.

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On Guterres naming a villain, how Masayoshi Son ‘overdid it,’ and Vance’s Venezuela trader
Current conditions: A major Atlantic storm called Storm Charles is bearing down on Portugal, which closed schools, canceled all non-essential services, and called off the second day of the WebSummit in Lisbon • A potential nor’easter is threatening New York City with heavy rain and flooding • Jackson, Mississippi — where Democrat Scott Colom declared victory last night to become the state’s first Black senator in nearly 150 years — is set to reach a warm, sunny, 71 degrees Fahrenheit today before dropping off by nearly 20 degrees overnight.
When the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its landmark report on the closing window to keep global warming within the range set by the Paris Agreement in 2018, António Guterres was just a year into the job as the United Nations’ secretary-general. The left-wing former Portuguese prime minister quickly developed a knack for delivering speeches that contained exactly the kind of rousing soundbites that blared in headlines across the world. That year, he proclaimed climate change “the defining issue of our time – and we are at a defining moment.” As emissions continued to grow, he ratcheted up his language. In 2022, he warned of a world in “great peril.” In 2023, he lamented that “humanity has opened the gates of Hell.” In his likely final speech before the annual global climate summit as the UN chief, Guterres raged against a world still on “the path to mutually assured destruction.”As “heat records keep shattering,” he said, “fossil fuel interests keep making a killing — while killing our planet.”
Meanwhile, at the summit formally known as the 31st Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, advocates are pushing for nuclear power to be explicitly acknowledged as clean in any official communiques that emerge from the negotiations. The key theme of this year’s event is Turkey’s goal of getting the world to increase the share of end-use energy that comes from electricity from 21% to 35% by 2035. Groups such as the Clean Air Task Force are pushing for the COP31 to name nuclear power as a resource to reach that goal, NucNet reported.
Exxon Mobil filed a confidential legal challenge to the European Union’s carbon capture rules in what the Financial Times called “the latest attempt by the U.S. energy group to row back Brussels’ flagship green regulations.” In a memo, the European Commission told its trade authorities it was preparing a response to the Texas giant’s argument that requiring the company to build out infrastructure to capture and store carbon dioxide emissions violates its rights against discrimination and expropriation under a 1994 investor protection treaty. The EU left the treaty last year, but is still bound by it.
Europe operates just 5.2% of the world’s operational carbon capture capacity as of this year, according to data from the International Energy Agency, putting the continent in a distant third place behind North America and South America. But that figure is on track to top 30% by 2035, easily leapfrogging into the No. 2 spot.

Last year, Japanese billionaire Masayoshi Son reserved a big portion of the U.S. market for gas turbines in hopes of making his SoftBank Group a top power equipment supplier for the data center boom. But reserving 13 gigawatts of turbines — equivalent to more than six Hoover Dams — drove a $3.7 billion loss in the company’s earnings.
“Like an overeager miner who tries to corner the market for picks and shovels in a gold rush,” The Wall Street Journal wrote in a scoop on the earnings hit, “Son’s SoftBank Group ordered so many turbines that even after fully supplying the world’s largest gas power plant, it was left with reservations for far more than it could possibly use.” It’s a sign, my colleague Robinson Meyer wrote last night, that “data centers may have already peaked as an economic and energy trend.”
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Add this to Democrats’ list of potential investigations into conflicts of interests in the Trump administration’s energy deals. A week before the U.S. invaded Venezuela, a plane linked to John Addison, a gasoline trader at the commodities giant Vitol and a friend and early financier of JD Vance’s political career, spent time on the tarmac of Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport alongside the vice president’s jet. Just two days after the capture of Nicolás Maduro, Addison received a call from Secretary of Energy Chris Wright with what Reuters described as “an irresponsible offer.” In a blockbuster investigation, the newswire reported that Vance told Wright to trust Addison despite the fact that he “wasn’t the obvious choice to receive such a call from” the Department of Energy chief. Typically such outreach would go to the company’s regional chief executive, not a senior trader. “And his specialty was buying and selling U.S. gasoline, not Latin American crude oil,” Reuters wrote.
Offshore wind may be out to sea in the U.S. But Britain and Japan just signed a new Offshore Wind Industrial Compact in a bid to increase cooperation on supply chains for all kinds of seaward turbines. The pact encourages joint investments between British developers such as the state-backed Great British Energy and Japanese financiers, offshoreWIND.biz reported.
Mr. Wonderful isn’t the only male celebrity getting into the data center craze. New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft’s Kraft Group is now seeking to build a 900-megawatt data center campus in Sutton, Massachusetts, an historic, rural enclave roughly an hour southwest of Boston. If completed, The Boston Globe reported, it would be the fourth-largest data center in the U.S.
SoftBank’s error and Nvidia’s scandal suggest data centers may have already peaked as an economic and energy trend.
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Covering energy and climate change sometimes means seeing certain stories in a different light than others. And a particularly vivid hue illuminated The Wall Street Journal’s report today that the Japanese conglomerate SoftBank Group is taking a $3.7 billion loss on several gigawatts’ worth of natural gas turbines.
For the Journal, the big news is that SoftBank and its billionaire founder, Masayoshi Son, are failing to capitalize on the artificial intelligence boom. But at Heatmap, we’re thinking about the turbines.
The data center boom and the return of electricity load growth has depleted the world’s supply of natural gas turbines. SoftBank had purchased reservations for about 13 gigawatts of turbines, according to the Journal. That’s a staggering amount of electricity — it could meet New York City’s maximum power draw on the hottest part of a summer’s day. The conglomerate now seems set to dump reservations for about four gigawatts’ worth. Keeping a reservation, it turns out, really is harder than making it.
Most of those rotors were reportedly from GE Vernova, one of the world’s largest producers of gas turbines. GE Vernova’s order list for gas turbines has been filled for nearly two years and the waiting list now stretches into 2031. That has led data center developers, hungry to get power as soon as possible, to reach for ever dirtier forms of electricity generation, including diesel generators and even old jet engines.
On that front, SoftBank’s failure to sell the turbines to a higher bidder suggests (albeit weakly) that demand for energy-producing assets might not be as strong as the AI boom’s backers once thought. SoftBank was already set to send about 9 gigawatts of turbines to the enormous Trump-backed OpenAI data center in Pike County, Ohio. The roughly remaining four gigawatts will be released back their manufacturers. (One thing this news can’t quite tell us, alas, is what type of turbine set-up will be used in the Pike County facility, which will be the world’s largest gas-fired power plant if it is build to completion. Recent public filings have suggested the facility isn’t planning on using any turbines in the more efficient combined-cycle configuration, which would mean the plant’s carbon intensity will be worse than most other new natural gas plants. But we’d love to hear any tips on this front.)
To zoom out for a second, I’m struck by how the AI bubble has been replaced by an AI muddle. As I wrote this, news emerged that Nvidia is preparing to fire its CEO, Jensen Huang, for his affair with a Chinese woman who is alleged to be a spy. (He had at least one more affair with another Nvidia executive, according to The New York Times.) Under Huang’s leadership, Nvidia has invested in a sprawling and sometimes circular network of energy-related companies, including Emerald AI, a startup that helps data centers flex their electricity consumption, and Redwood Materials, a battery recycler and producer led by the former Tesla executive J.B. Straubel. Huang has used Nvidia’s enormous balance sheet to buy down the risk of other AI and AI-related companies, propelling the overall AI trade to become the biggest story in American markets.
Now that balance sheet is in peril: Nvidia’s stock is already down 11% over the past five days, and it has fallen another 8% in after-hours trading since news broke of Huang’s ouster. If the chip designer’s financial network began to fray — or even if the next CEO had a lower risk appetite than Huang — then its demise could impact a much larger set of firms.
Even before the Huang scandal broke, companies at the center of the AI trade were showing signs of weakness. Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft are all down on the month. Nvidia was already lagging by about 10% on the month before its hebdomas horribilis began, too. The memory and chip makers Micron and Applied Materials are both down more than 25% in about the same period, and GE Vernova and Oklo have fallen nearly 20%. Although the data center company Coreweave rebounded on an earnings beat today, it’s still down 24% on the month and nearly 50% since May.
The market rout isn’t total — Anthropic seems likely to enjoy one of the largest IPOs ever in the next week (although perhaps not with quite as large a valuation as its investors once imagined). And the underlying technology of AI seems to be getting worryingly better all the time. But even though the politics of data centers and AI seem set to dominate the new Washington, I’m wondering if data centers as a mainstream economic trend might have already peaked. Americans voted for a more subdued AI boom in the midterms. Now it seems like they might get it ahead of schedule.
Lunar Energy’s latest AI-powered system aims to integrate EVs into the automated demand response mix.
In theory, it’s straightforward to assemble the smart energy home: Solar panels, home backup batteries, and electric vehicles, plus smart thermostats, heat pumps, and water heaters — all the individual pieces can be had for the homeowner who can afford the up-front cost. The challenge is getting all those pieces to talk to one another.
Bay Area-based Lunar Energy is one of the tech firms that’s been trying to crack this problem. Today, it announced an upgraded version of its artificial intelligence-powered home energy control system, which not only integrates all those separate systems but also responds tactically to energy markets. CEO Kunal Girotra told me Lunar AI saves its users money by monitoring their home 24/7 and making decisions to charge, not to charge, or discharge so that they save the most money.
“Utilities are all moving to almost-real-time changes of rates,” he said. “You need software to handle that for you. I think that the race is on for who has the best AI machine learning algorithms to save the most amount of money. And so far, we seem to have a head start.”
Lunar’s first-generation system focused on generation, storage, and control. In other words, it connected elements like a home’s rooftop solar panels with the backup battery the residents might keep in the garage, using the AI to decide when to meet the home’s real-time energy needs with solar versus grid energy versus stored power. What it didn’t have was the ability to work with electric vehicles to manage charging and use the car’s battery as a bonus source of energy.
To fix this, Lunar has built its own bidirectional EV charger — one that can charge up the battery or discharge the car’s battery for a secondary use, like backing up the home’s power supply. Girotra, formerly the head of Tesla Energy, told me the problem with that functionality to this point has been the connection point between the car and the home electrical system. Carmakers and other companies in the space didn’t have the deep experience with electrical certifications to make the process seamless, he tells me. That led to setups like the original Ford Charge Station Pro, which required several different wall-mounted electrical boxes to connect the F-150 Lightning EV to the home.
Lunar’s charger is built to connect to its customers’ existing home Lunar energy system, which includes a microgrid interconnect device they call Lunar Bridge that islands the home in case of a power outage on the grid. In that way, the power stored in the EV battery is ready to back up the home in case of a blackout without any additional work — or to be optimized as part of a fully smart home that’s making money as part of a virtual power plant.
The company’s setup allows for another fun feature: “slow” charging that’s not slow at all, but actually two or three times as fast as the Level 2 charging most EV owners use to recharge their batteries overnight. Electric cars in the U.S. can typically take on only about 11 kilowatts of AC power from one’s home because of the limitations of their on-board hardware. Because Lunar’s system is fully DC, however, Girotra said the company decided to build a DC home charger, one that — like a Tesla Supercharger or other DC fast chargers out in the world — isn’t limited by that power cap. Lunar said it could use a combination of power from the grid, home solar, or home batteries to charge an EV at up to 25 kilowatts. That’s enough to recharge an EV in three to four hours rather than six to eight.
“If the standards get high, and if everybody sees cars can get charged in three hours, then all of a sudden people are like, ‘Wow, this is how I want it,’” he said. “Especially for 25% of the users who are like me, who always are running low on charge and they don’t mind a boost every now and then.”
Some of the other improvements in the second-gen system are more incremental. An inverter that’s 40% more powerful helps Lunar get its system up to enterprise scale. That’s crucial, as the world moves toward a place where more homes and businesses employ battery backup systems. Lunar’s new batteries come in modular 5 kilowatt-hour blocks ranging from 10 kilowatt-hours to 30 kilowatt-hours in a single unit and scale up to 300 kilowatt-hours for home or small commercial use; there’s also new pad-mounted configurations with capacity up to 1 megawatt-hour.
Batteries, though, are the simple part. Everyone from EV makers like Rivian to utilities like Octopus Energy is racing to make a person’s or a business’s batteries and solar panels and electric cars work for them, using the power of AI to account for moment-to-moment changes in energy prices and supply. Lunar’s new tech makes the case that the most important element is a single brain to integrate every last smart, electrified thing in your house.