This Is the Year the World Breaches 1.5 Degrees

Current conditions: Colorado’s major snow storm will continue well into the weekend • More than 900 people in Pakistan were hospitalized in a single day due to extreme air pollution • Devastating flooding continues in Spain.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Guterres warns of tipping points and 1.5C breach ahead of COP29

The world continues to underestimate climate risks, and irreversible tipping points are near, UN Secretary General António Guterres told The Guardian. “It is absolutely essential to act now,” he said. “It’s absolutely essential to reduce emissions drastically now.” His warning comes before the COP29 summit kicks off Monday in Azerbaijan, where negotiators are set to agree on a new global finance target to help developing countries with climate adaptation. Guterres said that if the U.S. leaves the Paris Agreement again under a Trump presidency, the landmark goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would be “crippled.” Experts say 2024 is now expected to be the first full calendar year in which global temperatures exceed the 1.5 degrees target.

2. What a Trump presidency means for U.S. emissions

With climate-skeptic Donald Trump set to retake the White House in January, many are wondering what his policies will mean for U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. He’s likely to walk back pollution rules on cars and power plants, repeal some parts of the Inflation Reduction Act, boost oil and gas drilling, and pull out of the Paris Agreement. Jesse Jenkins, who leads the Princeton ZERO Lab and is co-host of Heatmap’s Shift Key podcast, said projected emissions will indeed be higher than they would under current policies, but “since Trump cannot repeal grants already awarded or tax credits already provided to date, and it is unlikely that every provision in IRA will be repealed,” they probably will remain lower than Jenkins’ so-called Frozen Policies scenario, which assumes no new climate policies since January 2021.

Jesse Jenkins/REPEAT Project

Varun Sivaram, senior fellow for energy and climate at the Council on Foreign Relations, added some global context: “Even with sharp Trump domestic climate policy rollbacks, the change in U.S. emissions is trivial on a global scale and far less meaningful than expected emerging economy emissions growth,” he said.

3. BP scraps 18 hydrogen projects

In case you missed it (we did!): Oil giant BP said in its most recent earnings report that it has abandoned 18 early-stage hydrogen projects. It still plans to back between five and 10 projects, but that’s down from the “more than 10” it had planned for. The move will save BP some $200 million, and “could have a chilling effect on the nascent hydrogen industry,” wrote Tim De Chant at TechCrunch.

4. Rivian reports Q3 earnings

Rivian reported Q3 earnings yesterday. Here are some key takeaways:

• Revenue was $874 million, down from $1.37 billion in the same quarter last year.
• Losses per vehicle were up year-over-year, now sitting at $39,130 compared to $30,500 in Q3 2023.
• Net losses hit $1.1 billion for the quarter, down from $1.34 billion yoy.
• As of September, the company had built 36,749 vehicles this year. Due to a parts shortage, it revised its expected annual output from 57,000 vehicles down to between 47,000 and 49,000.
• The company still expects to deliver more vehicles this year than last – barely.
• It says it’s still on track to turn a gross profit by the end of the year.

5. Study: Private jet emissions on the rise

A new study published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment found that carbon dioxide emissions from private jets have risen by 50% over the last four years. The research analyzed data from about 19 million private flights (half of which were shorter than 300 miles) made by more than 25,000 private aircraft between 2019 and 2023. In 2023 alone, private flights resulted in about 15.6 million metric tons of CO2 emissions. Most private flights are taking place in the United States: The researchers say that while the U.S. is home to 4% of the global population, nearly 70% of all private aircraft are registered there. The 2022 FIFA World Cup was one of the most carbon-intensive events for private aircraft. Also on the list? The Davos conference and – uh oh – COP28.

Most private flights occur in the U.S. Communications Earth & Environment

THE KICKER

Donald Trump’s election victory this week resulted in a $1.2 billion windfall for investors who bet against renewable energy stocks.