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On real estate in the era of climate change, Jeep EVs, and angry farmers
Current conditions: Mexico City’s iconic jacaranda trees have bloomed early • More than half of Australia’s Victoria state is under an extreme bushfire danger alert • It could hit 63 degrees Fahrenheit in Green Bay, Wisconsin, tomorrow. The average February high is 29 degrees.
New research offers a glimpse into how climate change continues to alter the real estate landscape in America. A recent study from Fannie May examined a Texas law, enacted in 2019 after Hurricane Harvey, that requires properties at risk of flooding be listed as such. The study found that the law has decreased prices for flood-prone homes by $15,000 on average. The study “comes as many states adopt or consider similar flood disclosure requirements,” E&E News reported. Harvey caused $155 billion in property damage. Experts say climate change is making hurricanes more destructive.
Eco-conscious Jeep lovers have been waiting patiently for a fully-electric version of their favorite vehicle, and their wait will soon be over. Jeep’s first EV – the Wagoneer S SUV – is entering production in the second quarter of 2024 and could be delivered to customers by July, the company’s CEO Antonio Filsosa said. It will be the first EV to sit on Stellantis’ new STLA Large EV platform. An electric Recon (which is inspired by the Wrangler) could be available by the end of the year. Stellantis-owned Jeep saw a 6% drop in U.S. sales last year, and is slashing prices on some of its best selling vehicles to combat the dip. It is no doubt hoping the EV push will help turn things around. “They’ve suddenly got a lot more competition than they traditionally have had,” Sam Abuelsamid, an e-mobility analyst at market research firm Guidehouse Inc., told The Detroit News. “There’s certainly opportunity for them to grow their share, but it’s not going to be easy.”
The Wagoneer SJeep
The sixth session of the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA-6) gets underway in Nairobi, Kenya, today. Member states will consider 19 draft resolutions on issues including climate change, pollution, and biodiversity. At the last meeting, in 2022, the group adopted 14 resolutions, including one on ending plastic pollution, which was called “the most significant environmental multilateral deal since the Paris Agreement,” according to The Associated Press. “UNEA-6 won’t solve the world’s problems overnight,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of the UN Environment Programme. "What it will do is unite nations under the banner of environmental action, focus minds and energies on key solutions and guide the work of UNEP in this critical period for people and planet.” The meeting runs until March 1.
The streets of Brussels are clogged with nearly 1,000 large tractors today as farmers descend on the city to protest environmental policies being discussed by EU agriculture ministers. Piles of tires were set on fire and manure was dumped onto the streets. Some tractors plowed through barricades. Police fired water cannons. Farmers across Europe have been protesting for weeks, demanding that policymakers do more to help out the agriculture sector, including scrapping some policies aimed at significantly reducing the bloc’s emissions by 2040. “We are not against climate policies,” the head of one farming organization told Reuters. “But we know that in order to do the transition, we need higher prices for products because it costs more to produce in an ecological way.” The protests may be working: The EU has already back-tracked on cutting farming emissions, and nixed plans to urge citizens to eat less meat.
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This went slightly under the radar last week, but is worth highlighting: Retail giant Walmart has hit a 2030 goal of reducing its Scope 3 emissions – six years early. Through the company’s “Project Gigaton” initiative, Walmart suppliers have removed 1 billion metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions from their value chains by reducing emissions, sequestering them, or avoiding them altogether. Project Gigaton launched in 2017. It’s a voluntary program that asks suppliers to set science-based emissions reduction targets in areas like waste, packaging, energy use, and transportation. Nearly 6,000 suppliers have signed up, and nearly 75% of net U.S. sales now come from Project Gigaton suppliers, reportedThe Wall Street Journal.
Scope 3 emissions – which come from a company’s supply chain and also from the ways consumers use its products – usually represent about 70% of a company’s carbon footprint. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was set to require all U.S.-listed companies to disclose their Scope 3 emissions, but appears poised to roll back this rule, leaving companies and individual states to take the initiative. Already California is requiring large companies doing business in the state to report Scope 3 emissions by 2027.
“We live in the narrow window where the severity of the problem is known, but there is yet time to act.” –Climate researchers Delvane Diaz, Steven Davis, and Zeke Hausfather writing about climate optimism for The Hill
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From Kansas to Brooklyn, the fire is turning battery skeptics into outright opponents.
The symbol of the American battery backlash can be found in the tiny town of Halstead, Kansas.
Angry residents protesting a large storage project proposed by Boston developer Concurrent LLC have begun brandishing flashy yard signs picturing the Moss Landing battery plant blaze, all while freaking out local officials with their intensity. The modern storage project bears little if any resemblance to the Moss Landing facility, which uses older technology,, but that hasn’t calmed down anxious locals or stopped news stations from replaying footage of the blaze in their coverage of the conflict.
The city of Halstead, under pressure from these locals, is now developing a battery storage zoning ordinance – and explicitly saying this will not mean a project “has been formally approved or can be built in the city.” The backlash is now so intense that Halstead’s mayor Dennis Travis has taken to fighting back against criticism on Facebook, writing in a series of posts about individuals in his community “trying to rule by MOB mentality, pushing out false information and intimidating” volunteers working for the city. “I’m exercising MY First Amendment Right and well, if you don’t like it you can kiss my grits,” he wrote. Other posts shared information on the financial benefits of building battery storage and facts to dispel worries about battery fires. “You might want to close your eyes and wish this technology away but that is not going to happen,” another post declared. “Isn’t it better to be able to regulate it in our community?”
What’s happening in Halstead is a sign of a slow-spreading public relations wildfire that’s nudging communities that were already skeptical of battery storage over the edge into outright opposition. We’re not seeing any evidence that communities are transforming from supportive to hostile – but we are seeing new areas that were predisposed to dislike battery storage grow more aggressive and aghast at the idea of new projects.
Heatmap Pro data actually tells the story quite neatly: Halstead is located in Harvey County, a high risk area for developers that already has a restrictive ordinance banning all large-scale solar and wind development. There’s nothing about battery storage on the books yet, but our own opinion poll modeling shows that individuals in this county are more likely to oppose battery storage than renewable energy.
We’re seeing this phenomenon play out elsewhere as well. Take Fannin County, Texas, where residents have begun brandishing the example of Moss Landing to rail against an Engie battery storage project, and our modeling similarly shows an intense hostility to battery projects. The same can be said about Brooklyn, New York, where anti-battery concerns are far higher in our polling forecasts – and opposition to battery storage on the ground is gaining steam.
And more on the week’s conflicts around renewable energy.
1. Carbon County, Wyoming – I have learned that the Bureau of Land Management is close to approving the environmental review for a transmission line that would connect to BluEarth Renewables’ Lucky Star wind project.
2. Nantucket County, Massachusetts – Anti-offshore wind advocates are pushing the Trump administration to rescind air permits issued to Avangrid for New England Wind 1 and 2, the same approval that was ripped away from Atlantic Shores offshore wind farm last Friday.
3. Campbell County, Virginia – The HEP Solar utility-scale project in rural Virginia is being accused of creating a damaging amount of runoff, turning a nearby lake into a “mud pit.” (To see the story making the rounds on anti-renewables social media, watch this TV news segment.)
4. Marrow County, Ohio – A solar farm in Ohio got approvals for once! Congratulations to ESA Solar on this rare 23-acre conquest.
5. Madison County, Indiana – The Indiana Supreme Court has rejected an effort by Invenergy to void a restrictive county ordinance.
6. Davidson County, North Carolina – A fraught conflict is playing out over a Cypress Creek Renewables solar project in the town of Denton, which passed a solar moratorium that contradicts approval for the project issued by county officials in 2022.
7. Knox County, Nebraska – A federal judge has dismissed key aspects of a legal challenge North Fork Wind, a subsidiary of National Grid Renewables, filed against the county for enacting a restrictive wind ordinance that hinders development of their project.
8. Livingston Parish, Louisiana – This parish is extending a moratorium on new solar farm approvals for at least another year, claiming such action is necessary to comply with a request from the state.
9. Jefferson County, Texas – The city council in the heavily industrial city of Port Arthur, Texas, has approved a lease for constructing wind turbines in a lake.
10. Linn County, Oregon – What is supposed to be this county’s first large-scale solar farm is starting to face pushback over impacts to a wetlands area.Today’s sit-down is with Nikhil Kumar, a program director at GridLab and an expert in battery storage safety and regulation. Kumar’s folks reached out to me after learning I was writing about Moss Landing and wanted to give his honest and open perspective on how the disaster is impacting the future of storage development in the U.S. Let’s dive in!
The following is an abridged and edited version of our conversation.
So okay – walk me through your perspective on what happened with Moss Landing.
When this incident occurred, I’d already been to Moss Landing plenty of times. It caught me by surprise in the sense that it had reoccurred – the site had issues in the past.
A bit of context about my background – I joined GridLab relatively recently, but before that I spent 20 years in this industry, often working on the integrity and quality assurance of energy assets, anything from a natural gas power plant to nuclear to battery to a solar plant. I’m very familiar with safety regulation and standards for the energy industry, writ large.
Help me understand how things have improved since Moss Landing. Why is this facility considered by some to be an exception to the rule?
It’s definitely an outlier. Batteries are very modular by nature, you don’t need a lot of overall facility to put battery storage on the ground. From a construction standpoint, a wind or solar farm or even a gas plant is more complex to put together. But battery storage, that simplicity is a good thing.
That’s not the case with Moss Landing. If you look at the overall design of these sites, having battery packs in a building with a big hall is rare.
Pretty much every battery that’s been installed in the last two or three years, industry has already known about this [risk]. When the first [battery] fire occurred, they basically containerized everything – you want to containerize everything so you don’t have these thermal runaway events, where the entire battery batch catches fire. If you look at the record, in the last two or three years, I do not believe a single such design was implemented by anybody. People have learned from that experience already.
Are we seeing industry have to reckon with this anyway? I can’t help but wonder if you’ve witnessed these community fears. It does seem like when a fire happens, it creates problems for developers in other parts of the country. Are developers reckoning with a conflation from this event itself?
I think so. Developers that we’ve talked to are very well aware of reputational risk. They do not want people to have general concern with this technology because, if you look at how much battery is waiting to be connected to the grid, that’s pretty much it. There’s 12 times more capacity of batteries waiting to be connected to the grid than gas. That’s 12X.
We should wait for the city and I would really expect [Vistra] to release the root cause investigation of this fire. Experts have raised a number of these potential root causes. But we don’t know – was it the fire suppression system that failed? Was it something with the batteries?
We don’t know. I would hope that the details come out in a transparent way, so industry can make those changes, in terms of designs.
Is there anything in terms of national regulation governing this sector’s performance standards and safety standards, and do you think something like that should exist?
It should exist and it is happening. The NFPA [National Fire Prevention Association] is putting stuff out there. There might be some leaders in the way California’s introduced some new regulation to make sure there’s better documentation, safety preparedness.
There should be better regulation. There should be better rules. I don’t think developers are even against that.
OK, so NFPA. But what about the Trump administration? Should they get involved here?
I don’t think so. The OSHA standards apply to people who work on site — the regulatory frameworks are already there. I don’t think they need some special safety standard that’s new that applies to all these sites. The ingredients are already there.
It’s like coal power plants. There’s regulation on greenhouse gas emissions, but not all aspects of coal plants. I’m not sure if the Trump administration needs to get involved.
It sounds like you're saying the existing regulations are suitable in your view and what’s needed is for states and industry to step up?
I would think so. Just to give you an example, from an interconnection standpoint, there’s IEEE standards. From the battery level, there are UL standards. From the battery management system that also manages a lot of the ins and outs of how the battery operates —- a lot of those already have standards. To get insurance on a large battery site, they have to meet a lot of these guidelines already — nobody would insure a site otherwise. There’s a lot of financial risk. You don’t want batteries exploding because you didn’t meet any of these hundreds of guidelines that already exist and in many cases standards that exist.
So, I don’t know if something at the federal level changes anything.
My last question is, if you were giving advice to a developer, what would you say to them about making communities best aware of these tech advancements?
Before that, I am really hoping Vistra and all the agencies involved [with Moss Landing] have a transparent and accountable process of revealing what actually happened at this site. I think that’s really important.