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On back-to-back storms, enhanced rock weathering, and SCOTUS

Current conditions: Another atmospheric river is taking aim at southern Oregon and northern California • Temperatures in southeastern Australia could reach 113 degrees Fahrenheit this weekend for the first time in four years • Nearly 50 inches of snow have been recorded in Erie, Pennsylvania.
Climate change “supercharged” this year’s typhoon season in the Philippines, according to new research from the World Weather Attribution. Six typhoons slammed into the country in November alone, double the “typical” number of storms for the month. At one point, four typhoons were churning in the Pacific basin simultaneously. Some areas were hit three times, highlighting “the challenges of adapting to back-to-back extreme weather events.” More than 170 people were killed, and the estimated economic toll is nearly half a billion dollars. “The storms were more likely to develop more strongly and reach the Philippines at a higher intensity than they otherwise would have,” said Ben Clarke, a weather researcher at Imperial College London and one of the authors on the report. The image below shows the tracks of seven storms between September and November:

A couple of Supreme Court updates today: The Biden administration is recommending the Court reject an appeal from a group of Big Oil firms regarding a 2023 ruling out of Hawaii that permitted Honolulu to sue Exxon Mobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, and Sunoco for allegedly lying to the public about the climate damages caused by burning fossil fuels. The Hawaii Supreme Court initially rejected the companies’ claim that the suit was overstepping into regulatory territory reserved for the federal government. The solicitor general is also urging the Supreme Court to reject an attempt by 19 GOP state attorneys general to block a lawsuit from five Democratic-led states against major oil companies.
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court this week said it would not pause an EPA rule, issued earlier this year, requiring the cleanup of coal ash dumping sites. A Kentucky electric utility had requested the rule be put on hold.
Beleaguered hydrogen-battery electric truck company Nikola is scrambling to avoid bankruptcy by laying off another chunk of its workforce. It cut 15% of its staff back in October, and it’s unclear how deep this next round will be. The company is losing about $200 million a quarter, Electrek reported. Earlier this week Nikola announced it would sell company shares to try to raise $100 million. In a filing with the SEC, the company wrote: “We currently estimate that our existing financial resources are only adequate to fund our forecasted operating costs and meet our obligations into, but not through, the first quarter of 2025.”
In case you missed it: A carbon removal startup backed by Google and Microsoft launched yesterday with nearly $60 million in funding. Terradot is one of several companies utilizing enhanced rock weathering (by spreading crushed rock over farmland) to remove carbon from the atmosphere. Coinciding with the launch, Google announced it was purchasing 200,000 tons of removal credits from Terradot to be delivered by the early 2030s, which the tech giant said is its largest ERW deal to date and its first direct investment in an ERW company. In all, Terradot launches with signed agreements to remove nearly 300,000 tons of CO2. The company has a scaled pilot in Brazil.
“To unlock enhanced rock weathering as a useful tool for CO2 removal, we need to deploy it at scale and learn how to measure the results rigorously using real-world data,” said Google’s head of carbon credits and removals, Randy Spock. “Terradot is well-positioned to do that work in an especially promising geography, and we’re excited to support them to help deliver significant amounts of CO2 removal both for Google’s net zero goal and for the planet.”
New research published in the journal Science concluded that a recent marine heat wave killed off more than half of Alaska’s population of common murres, resulting in “the largest documented wildlife mortality event in the modern era.” In total, some 4 million of the birds died between 2014 and 2016 due to fish die-off from rising temperatures in the north Pacific. “Population abundance estimates since then have found no evidence of recovery,” the researchers wrote, “suggesting that the heatwave may have led to an ecosystem shift.”


Tiktok’s annual carbon footprint is estimated to be about 50 million metric tons of CO2, which, for context, is more than Greece emits in a year.
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France’s deadliest heat wave since 2003 killed more than 2,700 people — and possibly as many as 5,700.
More than 5,700 excess deaths were recorded in France during this summer’s record-breaking heat wave, the country’s health agency announced today. That makes the event — which ran, by the official reckoning, from June 17 to July 2 — the country’s deadliest heat wave in more than 20 years.
That’s in line with other estimates we’ve heard. EuroMOMO, a network of European public health agencies that track excess mortality, found that the continent saw more than 10,000 excess deaths during the same period. Roughly 90% of those victims were older than 65, it said. (France’s cohort seems similar: Adults older than 75 made up about two-thirds of the victims, the government said.)
These numbers are staggering — and much larger than some astute Heatmap readers might anticipate. If you read my colleague Jeva Lange’s piece on why it’s so hard to estimate heat deaths last week, she cited a much smaller estimate: Roughly 2,700 died in France during the most recent heat wave. That tally came from Christopher Callahan, an Indiana University scientist who studies climate change’s economic and social costs.
Why is there such a gap between the figures? I emailed Callahan to find out. He shared a few thoughts. First, he uses a different (and theoretically more rigorous) method than the French government: “Our approach uses a statistical relationship between temperature and mortality to explicitly quantify how many additional deaths are associated with a given day’s temperature,” he wrote. “France’s report of excess deaths is just based on how many more people died in late June compared to previous Junes - but we don’t know if those people died because of the heat or some other factor.” (Carbon Brief recently published a Q&A on these varying approaches.)
That might mean his estimate is right, in which case France has misidentified roughly nearly 3,000 deaths. But it could also mean his model, which is trained on data from 2004 to 2019, is “missing something,” he said, like a post-Covid change to public health risk. Last year, Callahan and his colleagues used a similar model to estimate deaths from France’s worst-ever heatwave, a 2003 episode that overwhelmed morgues and killed about 16,000 people. Even 23 years ago, global warming helped make that disaster larger than it needed to be: Some 6,000 of those deaths were due to climate change, their paper found.
Either estimate of the 2026 heat wave, of course, is shattering. As Jeva wrote, even the lower figure would mean the 2026 heat wave killed as many people as died in three years of French homicides. But the divergence in estimates tells us something else too: Even as climate change breaks records and alters our world, we’re never going to quite agree on where it ends and normal randomness begins.
The AI data center boom does not seem close to ending. Google’s parent company, Alphabet, announced its second quarter results this evening, and it beat Wall Street’s expectations, nearly quadrupling its profit on a year-over-year basis. Among the drivers: Its cloud business grew 82% compared to the same quarter last year. (As I’ve written, that rapid growth is helping to turn Alphabet and other hyperscalers into light industrial firms.)
The company’s AI bets seem to be paying off so far — so Google is now planning on spending even more on data centers, energy infrastructure and AI development this year than it once anticipated. It raised its estimates of 2026 capital expenditure to $195 billion to $205 billion, which is above earlier projections and twice as much as it spent in the same category last year. 2027 could be even bigger, it signaled. The company’s shares fell slightly on the news in after-hours trading, but from an energy and climate wonk perspective, the message is clear: For now, the AI demand surge transforming the power sector — and the real economy — continues to chug along.