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Climate

2024 Was the Year We Broke 1.5C

On rising global temperatures, LA’s fire disaster, and solar stations in space

2024 Was the Year We Broke 1.5C
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: A sinkhole threatens to swallow up Ecuador’s large hydroelectric power plant • Air quality is poor in Delhi where dense smog has caused travel chaos • Nearly 40,000 customers are already without power in Texas as a winter storm rolls in.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Biden directly links LA fires to climate change

At least 10 people are known to have died in the Los Angeles fires, and some 10,000 structures are believed to have been destroyed. Five blazes continue to burn. The Palisades fire, the largest in the city’s history at 20,000 acres, remains just 6% contained. The Eaton fire has consumed 13,700 acres and is 0% contained. While lower wind speeds have helped firefighters make some progress over the last 24 hours, the Santa Ana gusts were expected to peak at 75 mph last night. “We are absolutely not out of this extreme weather event,” Los Angeles fire chief Kristin M. Crowley said in a news conference.

Charred homes in Pacific Palisades. Mario Tama/Getty Images

President Biden sent more than 30 government helicopters and planes to fight the flames, and said federal funding would cover the costs of the fire response for 180 days. (An early estimate from AccuWeather puts the cost of the disaster at more than $50 billion.) Biden also connected the emergency to climate change. “All has changed in the weather,” he said. “Climate change is real. We’ve got to adjust to it, and we can, it’s within our power to do it. But we’ve got to acknowledge it.”

2. Last year was warmest on record, surpassing 1.5C threshold

Some of the world’s leading weather research organizations are releasing data today showing that 2024 was the hottest year on record. The World Meteorological Organization, the European Copernicus Climate Change Service, the UK Met Office, Berkeley Earth, NOAA, NASA, and others “have made a concerted effort to coordinate the release of their data, highlighting the exceptional conditions experienced during 2024,” Copernicus said. The service is one of the first to roll out its findings, showing that the global average temperature last year was 59.18 degrees Fahrenheit, or 15.10 degrees Celsius. This is 1.60 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial average, making last year the first full calendar year during which the 1.5C warming threshold has been breached.

Copernicus

Oceans also were exceptionally warm, with sea surface temperatures reaching new record highs. Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions also increased. “These high global temperatures, coupled with record global atmospheric water vapour levels in 2024, meant unprecedented heatwaves and heavy rainfall events, causing misery for millions of people,” said Samantha Burgess, strategic climate lead with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

3. BlackRock leaves Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative

BlackRock yesterday announced its departure from the UN Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative. The decision is “a remarkable U-turn for a company that was once a poster child of the environmental, social, and governance investing movement,” said The Wall Street Journal. Asset managers participating in the initiative pledge to support the goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. BlackRock’s departure is significant because it’s the largest asset manager in the world, but so far it “has not prompted others to follow,” Reuters reported. More than 325 signatories managing more than $57 trillion are still signed on to NZAMI. BlackRock is currently being sued by 11 Republican-led states over ESG investing practices.

“Climate change poses one of the greatest risks to our global economy and the long-term investments BlackRock’s clients rely on,” said Ben Cushing, campaign director for the Sierra Club’s Fossil-Free Finance campaign. “Membership in voluntary alliances sets an important baseline, but to truly fulfill its fiduciary duty to long-term investors, BlackRock must support real-world decarbonization through stronger shareholder voting and by directing capital toward industries that mitigate systemic climate risks. If BlackRock won’t do that, its clients should find a different asset manager that will.”

4. Biden expected to release short-term guidance on clean fuel tax credits

Coming later today (probably): President Biden will release short-term guidance on clean fuel tax credits, two sources told Reuters. But the final rules will be left to the incoming Trump administration, meaning “biofuel companies and their legislative backers will have to wait to see if Trump will back the plan on the highly anticipated guidelines on new clean fuel production tax credits aimed at the airline and biofuel industries.” The tax credits were supposed to come into effect on January 1 to help spur on production of sustainable aviation fuels.

5. China reportedly planning large space solar station

China is reportedly planning to build a massive solar power station in space to harness the sun’s energy and beam it back to Earth. A Chinese scientist told the South China Morning Post that super-heavy rockets will be launched to build the station, which will be “another Three Gorges Dam project above the Earth.” Space-based solar power is a “tantalizing” way to generate clean energy from the sun around the clock, and many countries are investing in R&D on the idea. The European Space Agency estimates sunlight is 10 times more intense at the top of the atmosphere than on Earth’s surface, but “in order to generate optimal, economically-viable levels of solar power, the required structures need to be very large, both on Earth and in space.” NASA noted that researchers would need to figure out how to build these large structures in orbit, then make sure they can operate autonomously. Plus, manufacturing costs would be extremely high. “Moving all that mass into orbit would require many sustained missions to carry infrastructure into space,” NASA said. China’s electricity demand rose by 6.4% in 2023, and the country is leading in clean energy investments. According to the International Energy Agency, China commissioned as much solar power in 2023 as the entire world did in 2022.

THE KICKER

“While it would take an act of God far stronger than a fire to keep people from building homes on the slopes of the Santa Monica Mountains or off the Pacific Coast, the city that rebuilds may be smaller, more heavily fortified, and more expensive than the one that existed at the end of last year. And that’s just before the next big fire.” –Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin on the economic devastation of the LA fires

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Q&A

How an ‘Abundance’ Policy Shop Is Approaching Data Centers

Chatting about win-win solutions with the Abundance Institute’s Ryan Norris.

Ryan Norris.
Heatmap Illustration

This week’s conversation is with Ryan Norris, senior fellow for energy policy at the Abundance Institute. The libertarian-leaning institute — whose name cleverly shortens to AI — is a new-ish entity with increasing relevance in energy and tech spaces. As Norris and I discussed, it’s starting to help shape policy on data center development and the generation that’ll power it all, especially in Republican circles. Norris himself previously worked with Americans for Prosperity, a right-wing political organization. I reached out to him and asked if we could chat because I wanted to know more about the institute’s work within the energy space. He wound up saying a lot more than I expected. So let’s dive into it.

The following conversation was lightly edited and abridged for clarity.

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Hotspots

Wisconsin’s Anti-Data Center Voters Never Showed Up

Plus more of the week’s biggest development fights.

The United States.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

1. Shelby County, Alabama — The Trump administration’s widening effort to intervene in rural energy project fights is facing an early test: What happens if companies don’t take it seriously?

  • This week country music star John Rich, Trump’s “special envoy for American landowners,” explained to an Alabama radio station that one of his first public efforts to support a landowner with administration support ran aground. Rich said he reached out to Alabama Power in the hopes they it could move a planned transmission line cutting across the property of a trucking company owner seeking to retire in the woods. But Rich said Alabama Power has so far shrugged off both him and the Agriculture Department, refusing to allow any company representatives to speak with them.
  • “They farmed my conversation out to a third party attorney. Outside counsel. Not even someone with Alabama Power,” Rich told radio host Leland White. After an hour and a half with the attorney led to “no answers,” the musician said, he sent questions in writing with USDA assistance, which he claimed were met with “legal mumbo jumbo.” “It’s like a slap in the face. I still haven’t spoken to anyone at Alabama Power about this.”
  • Rich told the radio host he may raise the landowner’s issues directly with President Trump. Alabama Power did not respond to a request for comment from me. The utility so far has declined to address specifics with local media, citing ongoing litigation over the conflict.
  • If I had to hazard a guess, I’d say this is a turning point for the Trump administration’s efforts to expand its energy culture war saber-rattling tactics beyond renewable energy permitting. So much of the transmission process, for example, happens outside of any federal purview. Should Rich actually try to raise this issue with the president, what could Trump do besides a Truth Social post? If that’s where this heads, then I think we’re seeing this effort hit a wall, at least for now.

2. Ozaukee County, Wisconsin — Speaking of walls, we just saw the political power of the data center resistance hit one in the Badger State.

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Spotlight

Why Energy Developers Are Freaking Out Over Trump’s Farmland Plans

Renewable and pipeline companies alike have come out against the administration’s attempt to leverage an obscure Cold War-era law.

Farming and solar panels.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

The Trump administration is considering changing its interpretation of an obscure law related to farmland ownership to transform it into a national security instrument with profound impacts for U.S. renewables projects — and fossil fuels. U.S. energy developers and their trade groups are ringing alarms about the plan, arguing that Trump may be about to undermine their relationships with international investors in allied nations.

For the past week, I’ve been hearing anxious rumbling from contacts in D.C. about a proposed regulation from the Agriculture Department published on June 26. The plan has gotten little attention so far outside of energy trade publications and wonk analysis. Pay no mind to the relative quiet — anyone working in energy development needs to know what’s at stake. Explaining why this is sending D.C. energy lobbyists into a tizzy gets complicated quickly, so bear with me. But the easiest way to sum it up is a fear of death by a thousand cuts.

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