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On critical minerals, Tesla’s home battery business, and India’s heat wave

Current conditions: The Silver Fire, which erupted in eastern California on Sunday, spread to 1,589 acres and is 47% contained • More than 200,000 customers in Michigan are still without power following an ice storm • Torrential downpours this week could drop four months’ worth of rain and trigger flash flooding across the Ohio Valley.
As his administration readies broad-based tariffs to be unveiled on Wednesday, President Trump is reportedly considering issuing an executive order that would fast-track permitting for deep-sea mining for critical minerals in international waters. Sources told Reuters the order would also let mining projects skip a review process and mining code put in place by the United Nations. Minerals on the seafloor – including cobalt, nickel, copper, and lithium – are essential for products including electric vehicle batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines, though the Trump administration hasn’t mentioned clean tech in its recent efforts to bolster the nation’s access to the materials. Last week, Trump invoked emergency powers to expand domestic critical minerals production in the name of “transportation, infrastructure, defense capabilities, and the next generation of technology.” He is also reportedly readying tariffs on copper in an attempt to boost domestic production, Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin writes.
The environmental impacts of deep-sea mining aren’t fully understood, but many fear “it could pose grave consequences for both marine life and planetary health,” as the World Resources Institute explains. Moving to bypass international safeguards would “raise tensions with other nations competing for resources in international waters, and who believe permitting should be in the hands of a global body that oversees access and resolves disputes,” reported Reuters.
New research suggests that climate change will hit the global economy much harder than previously thought. The study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, combines economic models with climate change models and then factors in the effect of weather disasters on the global supply chain – something other forecasts have omitted. “We found if the Earth warms by more than 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, the estimated harm to the global economy jumped from an average of 11% (under previous modelling assumptions) to 40% (under our modelling assumptions),” the researchers explained. “This level of damage could devastate livelihoods in large parts of the world.” Experts project that the world will warm by about 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100 compared to pre-industrial averages, so the new study is based on worst-case scenarios, but it suggests that current economic models are vastly underestimating the economic impact of global heating and its many knock-on effects. That said, recent documents seen by E&E News show that some of the world’s top banks now think those worst-case scenarios are looking more likely. “We now expect a 3°C world,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a report this month.
A group of nearly 2,000 U.S. scientists published an “SOS” to the American public, condemning what it calls a “wholesale assault on U.S. science” by the Trump administration. In the letter, published in Scientific American, the scientists say “the administration is blocking research on topics it finds objectionable, such as climate change,” and warn that “other countries will lead the development of novel disease treatments, clean energy sources, and the new technologies of the future. Their populations will be healthier, and their economies will surpass us in business, defense, intelligence gathering, and monitoring our planet’s health. The damage to our nation’s scientific enterprise could take decades to reverse.
Consumers have become increasingly turned off by Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s political involvement in the Trump administration, and the backlash seems to be hurting parts of the company beyond electric vehicles. According to Electrek, people looking to install home solar systems are asking for alternatives to Tesla’s Powerwall battery packs. Data from home energy solutions marketplace EnergySage shows that nearly 70% of potential home solar buyers seeking quotes in the first two months of 2025 requested an alternative supplier. “Do you offer a battery from a supplier other than Tesla?” one customer asked. “Though we have a Tesla Powerwall and love it, and we love our Tesla Model 3 and Y, we are outraged at Musk’s politics, so we don’t wish to send him more money.”
Forecasters are warning that India could see an exceptionally hot few months leading up to summer after the country experienced an unusually warm March. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department, said on Monday that heat wave conditions are likely to persist through April and May across much of the country. “From April to June, most parts of north and east India, central India, and the plains of north-west India are expected to experience two-to-four more heatwave days than normal,” he said. India is the world’s most populous nation and the third largest greenhouse gas emitter. Most of its emissions come from the energy sector, and especially the burning of coal. The heat waves are expected to increase energy demand (and thus coal usage) as more people switch on air conditioners to keep cool. Last year, temperatures reached 123 degrees Fahrenheit in India’s Rajasthan state.
Preliminary analysis suggests that China’s recent efforts to curb air pollution may have inadvertently caused global warming to accelerate. Why? Because these moves also reduced levels of atmospheric aerosols that were helping cool things down.
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The data center boom is everywhere you look in U.S. economic and emissions data.
This is an edition of Heatmap Daily, an evening review of the day’s news written by our executive editor. Sign up for it here.
It isn’t exactly a new thought, but I’ve been struck recently by how many trends in America’s economic and environmental data are fundamentally about the data center boom and the return of electricity demand:
First, the Energy Information Administration reported this week that U.S. emissions grew by more than 2% last year, driven by surging electricity demand and an increase in coal-fired generation. What caused that higher power demand? New factories and data centers — as well as record summertime cooling demand.
Second, many of the new factories driving that higher power demand are themselves producing goods that are … let’s say … data center-adjacent. There are the enormous new semiconductor fabs, of course. But Ford and General Motors have also set up new production lines (or repurposed old ones) to manufacture grid-scale batteries to meet power demand.
Third, take a look at the recent U.S. spending on private non-residential construction — in other words, everything American companies are building that is not houses, condos, or apartments.
The construction industry’s spent almost $60 billion on data centers over the past year, which is more than it spent on all other office buildings combined (and more than it spent building warehouses, too). Just a handful of categories — data centers, power plants, electricity infrastructure, and certain kinds of electronics manufacturing — now make up a third of all U.S. private non-residential construction investment. They’ve never made up such a large share of construction spending since data collection began in 2014.
As The New York Times recently noted, the American economy is unusually dependent on the American stock market right now — and the stock market is unusually dependent on artificial intelligence. This week, investors started to balk at the enormous spending hyperscalers are planning to keep building out the AI boom; Alphabet’s shares dropped 8% this week after it boosted its planned 2026 capital expenditure and signaled 2027 will be even bigger. If the data center boom started to slow down in earnest, then more than just that budget will change.
Speaking of which, my colleague Emily Pontecorvo wrote earlier this week about how many businesses are struggling to even estimate their carbon emissions from artificial intelligence. The carbon accounting startup Watershed recently unveiled a new formula to help companies get a sense of their AI-related emissions.
But even that formula is still limited by the amount of data hyperscalers publish — and they don’t publish that much. Google, for instance, is the only AI company that has (laudably) provided estimates of its emissions on a per-prompt basis. Yet no company has published its per-token emissions, or how emissions sync up with particular models or regions.
So Emily asked Google: Why aren’t you — or any other model provider — disclosing this kind of data yet?
The tech company didn’t get back to us until after we’d published Emily’s story. But its response was interesting enough that I wanted to quote some of it here.
The problem is “industry consensus,” Cooper Elsworth, a Google spokesperson, told us. “There is currently very little consensus on how to comprehensively and fairly measure the serving environmental impact of generative AI (such as text generation),” he wrote. “Without standardized, ‘apples-to-apples’ frameworks, it is difficult to compare different providers accurately.”
That’s partly because energy use — and emissions data — can vary from site to site and depend on “custom-built hardware, software compilers, and advanced inference techniques.” And he claimed Google doesn’t always have the measurement hardware in place to provide such specific estimates: “Providing precise, repeatable data requires highly advanced measurement infrastructure,” he said. “For example, software-based energy monitoring tools often suffer from sampling biases. For our study, we had to step away from top-down averages and directly measure actual energy at the physical power supply unit (PSU) level across our deployed fleet. Not all providers have the telemetry or data sets required to benchmark their operations at this level of granularity.”
Read Emily’s story to understand the other reasons why estimating — or even “guesstimating” — AI-related carbon emissions is so challenging.
A conversation with Emma Uridge of the Kansas Health Institute.
This week’s conversation is with Emma Uridge, analyst with the Kansas Health Institute. Uridge spent copious hours analyzing state and local laws on data center development to best understand how policymakers are responding to the potential environmental public health impacts of large AI infrastructure, including power and water. The report, which came out this week, also goes in depth into those health impacts. I reached out to her to discuss what she sees as must-watch territory for our readers on this emerging policy arena.
Our conversation was lightly edited for clarity.
What is actually being done on policy when it comes to data centers — beyond moratoria of course?
So first I’d like to just talk about the point of moratoria. It’s helpful to talk about how these policies emerge in the first place. One area where moratoria are helpful is when a data center is proposed but the county has no approach for how they’d like to potentially regulate them. That’s temporary, most of the time. It lets local governments conduct research on the various impacts and also negotiate community benefits, ones that can mitigate any potential negative impacts — like Lancaster Pennsylvania, which instituted a community benefit agreement that maximized the potential benefits of development while mitigating what large data centers can do. That agreement looked at capping municipal water use at 20,000 gallons per day and requiring 100% clean energy. It had financial penalties for non-compliance. The company also committed $20 million to their local economic development and clean energy fund. There are ways to negotiate with developers.
We also see amendments to existing zoning. Data center proposals are increasingly popping up in rural areas, many of which are unzoned, so there’s no way a county can negotiate unless there’s a moratorium in place.
Other policy solutions include different performance standards or requiring on-site renewable energy, like what Jefferson County, Missouri, looked at. Also setback requirements, mandatory noise buffers, ending by-right zoning.
Where are local governments getting ideas for regulating data centers?
A lot of the technical information comes from developers. That can in cases be seen as a biased source of information. I wouldn’t say there’s a dedicated group providing assistance to local governments when a project is proposed — which is a similar story to wind industry development, where we have only a handful of consultants who provide technical advice. It can be really helpful to get a multi-disciplinary approach to hearing information. It can be helpful to have the utility commission, public health folks, those in academia, as well as the developer.
As of right now, especially in rural areas, local governments have a hard task of balancing pushback while getting the most accurate, evidence-based, neutral information to make decisions. That balance can be contentious.
What is the federal government doing on data center policy? How is the Trump administration approaching it?
A few things there. In the early days, the drive was for AI expansion and to be competitive with foreign adversaries. Now due to the amount of public pushback in red and blue localities and a more cautious approach.
I’m not seeing a lot of actual policy movement at this time.
I know the EPA is looking at the chemicals used in cooling data centers because when that water is cycled through the system, some of it is discharged into the water system, so they’re looking at the Toxic Substances and Control Act for monitoring that.
How much of an impact does this minimal federal role have on industry behavior?
Y’know, this isn’t specific to data centers. This is true for all kinds of large-scale development: there’s a need to require some sort of federal monitoring and regulation.
That’s where I see an emerging role for public health. At the federal level, there could be policy movement towards requiring some sort of environmental monitoring at data centers to make sure they’re operating responsibility. Looking at specific water use relative to water availability and what happens when there’s a time of severe, persistent drought. With air quality too — we’ve seen areas where the grid isn’t as reliable so their diesel generators are kicking on more and affecting air quality for residents.
We’re just not seeing all of that right now. We need corporate disclosure.
What do you see as the most important public health impacts from data center development?
It varies by localities. The most discussed obviously is water usage. One thing I’d note about my conversations with folks enthusiastic around emerging tech is, there are still questions that need to be asked about the capacity of localities to support a data center. Like a small town in Kansas may only be using 40% of their water for their utility needs. If a data center came online, how much of that water goes to the data center?
One area underexplored within the public health discipline is energy poverty and energy security. The ability of a household to meet the needs of everything energy provides in our lives. It’s known we have an aging electric grid but we’re not talking enough about large-scale blackouts when the grid is not sufficient to support some of these new data centers.
Plus more of the week’s big development fights.
1. Laramie County, Wyoming — Meta is fighting the fine it received in the Cheyenne data center water pollution controversy, and the conflict between the tech giant and the city’s small board of public utilities is continuing to spill out into the public.
2. Niagara County, New York — This county just rejected a solar project’s highway work permits in a show of retaliation against the state’s Office of Renewable Energy Siting.
3. Barron County, Wisconsin — The anti-solar protest is the new campaign stop in deep red Wisconsin.
4. Chesapeake, Virginia — A large battery storage project on the Virginia coastline is on the rocks amidst rampant local opposition.
5. Lewis County, West Virginia — West Virginia is now a key battleground in the fight over transmission, as a line spanning all of West Virginia and Maryland — and cutting through Data Center Alley in Virginia — causes compounding consternation.