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Even critical minerals can get complicated.

In northeastern Minnesota, a fight over the proposed NewRange Copper Nickel mine, better known as PolyMet, has dragged on for nearly two decades. Permits have been issued and revoked; state and federal agencies have been sued. The argument at the heart of the saga is familiar: Whether the pollution and disruption the mine will create are worth it for the jobs and minerals that it will produce.
The arguments are so familiar, in fact, that one wonders why we havenât come up with a permitting and approval process that accounts for them. In total, the $1 billion NewRange project required more than 20 state and federal permits to move forward, all of which were secured by 2019. But since then, a number have been revoked or remanded back to the permit-issuing agencies. Just last year, for instance, the Army Corps of Engineers rescinded NewRangeâs wetlands permit on the recommendation of the Environmental Protection Agency.
The messy history of this mine displays the difficult decisions the U.S. faces when it comes to securing the critical minerals that are key to a clean energy future â and the ways in which our current regulatory and permitting infrastructure is ill-equipped to resolve these tensions.
All sides in this debate recognize that minerals like nickel and copper are vital to the energy transition. Nickel is an integral component in most lithium-ion EV battery chemistries, and copper is used across a whole swath of technologies â electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind turbines, to name a few.
âWe recognize that you're going to need copper, nickel, and other minerals in order to have a functioning society and to make the clean energy transition that we're all interested in,â Aaron Klemz, Chief Strategy Officer at the Minnesota Center for Environmental Advocacy, told me. But along with a number of other environmental groups and the Fond du Lac band of the Minnesota Chippewa tribe, which lives downstream of the proposed mine, MCEA opposes the project. âYou canât not mine. We understand that. But you have to take it on a case-by-case basis.â
On the one hand, the Duluth Complex, where the NewRange mine would be sited, contains one of the worldâs largest untapped deposits of copper, nickel and other key metals. However, the critical minerals in this water-rich environment are bound to sulfide ores that can release toxic sulfuric acid when exposed to water and air. The proposed mine sits in a watershed that would eventually flow into Lake Superior, a critical source of drinking water for the Upper Midwest.
Many advocacy groups believe water pollution from the mine is inevitable, especially given NewRangeâs plans for its waste basin. The current proposal involves covering the waste products, known as tailings, with water and containing the resulting slurry will with a dam. Thatâs considered much riskier than draining water from the tailings and âdry stackingâ them in a pile. NewRangeâs upstream dam construction method is also a concern, as the wet tailings can erode the damâs walls more easily than with other designs. An upstream dam collapsed in Brazil in 2019, leading the country to ban this type of construction altogether.
And lastly, thereâs the narrow question of the NewRange damâs bentonite clay liner. Late last year, an administrative law judge recommended that state regulators refrain from reissuing NewRangeâs permit to mine on the grounds that this liner was not a âpractical and workableâ method of containing the tailings.
Christie Kearney, director of sustainability, environmental and regulatory affairs for NewRange Copper Nickel, called these criticisms âtired and worn talking pointsâ in a follow-up email to me, and said that the concerns simply donât hold water âafter the most comprehensive and lengthy environmental review and permitting process in Minnesota history.â The bentonite issue in particular, she told me, represents one of the main reasons permitting has been so challenging. âInstead of allowing agencies (who have the expertise) to make these decisions as established in Minnesota law, the regulatory decisions get challenged in court by mining opponents, leaving it to judges (who donât have the technical expertise) to make these determinations,â she wrote.
The whole process could have gone more smoothly if all the stakeholders were involved from the beginning, she told me when we spoke. âIn particular, we have a number of state permits that are overseen by the EPA, yet the EPA isn't involved until the very end, which has caused frustration both in our environmental review process as well as our permitting process.â
Klemz has another approach to ending the confusion. What is needed, he said, is a pathway to shut down projects once and for all if theyâre deemed too environmentally hazardous. âThere is no way to say no under the system we have now,â he told me. While courts can deny or revoke a permit, companies like NewRange can always go back to the drawing board and resubmit. âWhat we have instead is a system where the company has the incentive to keep on trying over and over and over again, despite whatever setback they encounter.â
While thereâs no systematic way to block a mine, myriad avenues can lead to a âno.â Last year, the federal government placed a moratorium on mining on federal lands upstream of Minnesotaâs Boundary Waters Canoe Wilderness Area, effectively shutting down another proposed copper-nickel mine. And the EPA banned the disposal of mine waste near Alaskaâs proposed Pebble mine, blocking that project as well.
Itâs a delicate balancing act, because ultimately the administration does want to incentivize domestic critical minerals production. The Inflation Reduction Act provides generous tax credits for companies involved in minerals processing, cathode materials production, and battery manufacturing. Then thereâs the $7,500 credit available to consumers that purchase a qualifying EV, which depends on the automaker sourcing minerals from either the U.S. or a country the U.S. has a free-trade agreement with.
Under the current interpretation of the IRA, itâs possible that none of this money would flow directly to NewRange, since mineral extraction isnât eligible for a tax credit, and itâs yet unclear whether the company will process the metals to a high enough grade to be eligible for credits there, either. Automakers that source from NewRange could benefit, but the project doesnât currently have offtake agreements with any electric vehicle or clean energy company. Thatâs something that critics of the mine point to when NewRange touts its clean energy credentials.
âIt's much more likely that this will end up in a string of Christmas lights than it will end up in a wind turbine in the United States,â Klemz told me. Of course, more critical minerals in the market overall will lower prices, thereby benefiting clean energy projects. But NewRange is a less neat proposition than, say, the proposed Talon Metals nickel mine, which is sited about two hours southwest of NewRange. As MIT Technology Review reports, this mine could unlock billions in federal subsidies through its offtake agreement with Tesla.
That hasnât inoculated Talon from fierce local opposition, either. âAs disinterested as the public may be in a lot of things, they are really engaged in a new mining project in their backyard,â said Adrian Gardner, Principal Nickel Markets Analyst at the energy and research consultancy Wood Mackenzie, which has been tracking both the Talon and NewRange mine since they were first proposed.
The Biden administration is also engaged. Two years ago, the Department of the Interior convened an interagency working group to make domestic minerals production more sustainable and efficient, starting with the Mining Law of 1872 â still the law of the land when it comes to new mining projects. The group released a report last September recommending, among other things, that the Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Forest Service provide standardized guidance to prospective developers and require meetings between all relevant agencies and potential developers before any applications are submitted. That means Congress will need to provide more resources to permitting agencies.
Those resources could come from a proposed royalty of between 4% and 8% on the net proceeds of minerals extracted from public lands, a fee that would also go to help communities most impacted by mining. The National Mining Association, of which NewRange is a member, has come out strongly against the reportâs recommendations, highlighting the high royalties as a particular point of contention.
But many of the reportâs proposals might have helped NewRange in its early days. âThere were a lot of early missteps by the company,â Kearney admits. âThe first draft [Environmental Impact Statement] that the company went through received a very poor reading from the EPA, and the company went back to its drawing board, changed out its leadership and its environmental leads.â
More stern rebukes, of course, would be the ideal for many advocacy groups. âI don't know how they could redesign it quite honestly, given what we know about the science, to comply with the law,â Klemz said.
Kearney is adamant, though, that even after five years of litigation, NewRange has no plans to give up the fight. âNot many companies can weather that,â Kearney said. Not many companies, however, are backed by mining giant Glencore. PolyMet, the projectâs original developer, âreally only survived because Glencore came in a few years back and invested over time until the point where they got 100% control,â Kearney told me.
Glencore, a $65 billion Swiss company, is pursuing the NewRange project in partnership with Teck Resources, which is worth $20 billion. The companies can afford to fight for a very long time, meaning nobody knows quite how or when this all ends.
âWe do need this material. I get that,â Klemz told me. âSo I don't really know if there's going to be some kind of neat future resolution to this.â
Kearney put it simply. âWe don't have a timeline right now.â
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The COVID-era political divide is still having ripple effects.
Six years ago this month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began advising that even healthy individuals to wear face coverings to protect themselves against the spread of what we were then still calling the ânovel coronavirus.â Mask debates, mandates, bans, and confrontations followed. To this day, in the right parts of the country, covering your face will still earn you dirty looks, or worse.
If there were ever another year to have an N95 on hand, though, itâs this one. This winter was the warmest on record in nine U.S. states; Oregon, Colorado, Utah, and Montana have also recorded some of their lowest snowpacks since record-keeping began. That cues up the landscape in the West for âabove normal significant fire potential,â in the words of the National Interagency Fire Center, which issues predictive outlooks for the season ahead. And itâs not just the West: the 642,000-acre Morrill grass fire, which ignited in early March, was the largest in Nebraskaâs history, while exceptional drought conditions stretching from East Texas through Florida have set the stage for âwell above normal fire activityâ heading into the spring lightning season. As of the end of March, wildfires have already burned more than 1.6 million acres in the U.S., or 231% of the previous 10-year average.
âAir pollution is the most significant toxic environmental exposure that the average person is ever subjected to, and wildfire smoke in particular is probably the most toxic type of air pollution [theyâre] ever exposed to,â Brian Moench, the president at Utah Physicians for a Healthy Environment, a nonprofit clean-air advocacy group, told me.
Our understanding of just how dangerous that smoke is grows by the year. After having their grant pulled by the Trump administration, researchers at the University of California, Davis Health and UCLA persisted in publishing a report this winter reviewing more than 8.6 million births in California and demonstrating a link between exposure to wood smoke during pregnancy and the increased likelihood of autism. Another report, also published this winter by researchers from UCLA, estimated that the particulate matter from wildfire smoke is responsible for nearly 25,000 deaths per year in the United States, with no safe threshold for exposure.
âIf a person is in a circumstance where they really canât avoid wildfire smoke,â Moench added, âthey absolutely should be doing everything they can to protect themselves.â
As public health offices around the country will tell you, one of the best ways to do just that is by donning an effective mask. N95 respirators specifically are about 95% effective at protecting the wearer against the dangerous particulates in wildfire smoke (although not gases or asbestos). Though not recommended by public health departments due to their comparative ineffectiveness, even surgical and cloth masks can offer limited particulate protection of about 68% and 33%, respectively.
But you have to actually wear them. After the Los Angeles fires in early 2025, health officials warned that exposure to toxic ash and dust remained a threat even after the air quality index returned to safe levels; one public health official who spoke to The New York Times recommended wearing a face mask for at least a month after the fires, a duration likely to feel interminable to all but the most cautious of people. âI think thereâs a reluctance on the part of a lot of people to wear masks based not on anything other than they donât want to make a political statement with their public outings,â Moench said. âI think there are a lot of people who just want to shy away from the controversy that they represent, irrespective of whether or not itâs a good idea.â
Moench has first-hand experience with the frustrating experience of promoting lung health in the polarized, post-COVID world of masking. Last year, Utah lawmakers floated a statewide mask ban with exceptions only for Halloween and masquerades â but not for legitimate health concerns such as poor air quality due to wildfire smoke. Though the ban was swiftly shot down, in part due to the outcry from disability advocates and environmental health groups, including Physicians for a Healthy Environment, the fact that the legislature floated it at all underscores how masks remain divisive, even years after mandates ended.
Many in public health have approached post-COVID messaging around masking by promoting scientific facts. Bev Stewart, the regional director of health initiatives at the American Lung Association of the Mountain Pacific, told me that in her experience, âItâs rare that somebody would say, âI would never, under any circumstance, wear a mask.ââ She called the process of trying to reach skeptics a âconversation,â noting that there tends to be âa large misunderstanding about how lungs workâ â namely, that masks offer protections that extend beyond the associations with the pandemic.
âMany types of air quality concerns could be mitigated with masks,â Stewart told me. âSometimes weâre just thinking too narrowly about one specific instance and forgetting the forest for the trees.â
Others I spoke to, though, were doubtful that the populations who are most resistant to mask-wearing could be reached through facts alone. A portion of the country has âlost all respect for empirical evidence, facts, and science â virtually everything that modern civilization was based upon,â Moench said.
Jonas Kaplan, an associate professor of psychology at the University of Southern California, has put numbers to Moenchâs conjecture. During the COVID pandemic, Kaplan studied how messaging can reach anti-maskers, discovering that when âinformation about masks was framed in terms of pure science, there was no significant reduction in anti-mask beliefs or change in mask-wearing behavior.â
Kaplan told me that a lot of the resistance in the anti-masking community comes down to, âWhat will people in public think of me? What would my friends think of me?â The most effective messages, heâs found, are those that speak to in-group values rather than presenting straight facts. âIt wasnât like, âStudies show that this is safe âŚââ broke through with the skeptics, Kaplan said. âIt was more about emphasizing, âThis is important, and we should care about it.ââ
Science, though, does still have a vital role to play. Though we already have a better understanding of the impacts of smoke exposure than we did even a few years ago, more research is needed into its long-term effects. That will also give us greater clarity into how to best protect the more than 25 million Americans who are exposed to wildfire smoke every year â both physically, via better masks and air filters, as well as through better public health messaging.
âSmoke by itself â we know whatâs in it, and we know you donât want to breathe it in,â Emily Fischer, a leading expert on air pollution and a researcher and professor at Colorado State University, told me. âWe also know that there are protective actions that families can prepare for, and do their best to take.â
Unfortunately, under the Trump administration, the Environmental Protection Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation, which had previously led research in the area, have drastically reduced their funding. Just this week, The Hill reported that NOAA has cut off grant funding to the University of Coloradoâs Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, which, in addition to research into greenhouse gases, has extensively studied wildfire-related air pollution.
Fischer has been affected, too. âMy team has had grants terminated related to air quality and protecting public health, and thatâs really sad because the smoke doesnât care if youâre a kid, if youâre elderly, or if you live in a red or blue state,â she said. âFamilies really need to think right now about how to protect themselves and their loved onesâ against the smoke ahead, she told me.
Current conditions: Temperatures in the Northeast are swinging from last weekâs record 90 degrees Fahrenheit to a cold snap with the risk of freezing ⢠After a sunny weekend, the United Statesâ southernmost capital â Pago Pago, American Samoa â is facing a week of roaring thunderstorms ⢠Itâs nearing 100 degrees in Bangui as the Central African Republicâs capital and largest city braces for another day of intense storms.
The price of crude spiked nearly 7% in pre-market trading Sunday after the fragile ceasefire between Iran and the U.S.-Israeli alliance. Things had been looking up on Friday, when President Donald Trump announced what appeared to be a breakthrough in talks with Tehran in a post on Truth Social, saying Iran would âfully reopenâ the Strait of Hormuz. By Sunday, however, the U.S. commander in chief was accusing Tehran of firing bullets at French and British vessels in the waterway in âa total violation of our ceasefire agreement,â adding: âThat wasnât nice, was it?â On Sunday afternoon, Trump posted again to announce that the U.S. had seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to traverse the strait. The prolonged conflict will only harden the historic rupture the severe contraction of oil and gas supply to the global market in modern history has triggered in global energy planning. âAs happened with Russiaâs war against Ukraine, the consequences of the Hormuz closure cannot simply be undone. That leaves countries â especially poorer countries dependent on fossil fuel imports â with a stark choice about how to fuel their future economic growth,â Heatmapâs Matthew Zeitlin wrote last week. âThe crisis may have tipped the balance towards renewable and storage technology from China over oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf, Russia, or the United States.â
While the surge in gasoline costs âlikely peaked,â Secretary of Energy Chris Wright warned that the price at the pump could remain above $3 a gallon until 2027 during an interview with CNNâs Jake Tapper on Sunday.
The Trump administration pitched its deal to pay TotalEnergies nearly $1 billion to cancel the companyâs offshore wind leases as a win-win: The government would reimburse the French energy giant for every penny it spent to acquire the leases, and in exchange, Total would âredirectâ the money to U.S. oil and gas development. But new document released Friday and analyzed by Heatmapâs Emily Pontecorvo show that âAmericansâ side of the bargain appears to be worthlessâ given that âTotal did not have to make any new investments to get its check.â Indeed, the company was already planning investments in the U.S. that would likely qualify under the deal.
Offshore wind investments are, meanwhile, moving forward. Danish developer Orsted has installed the first wind turbine at its Sunrise Wind project off the coast of New York, offshoreWIND.biz reported. The turbine is the first of whatâs expected to be 84 turbines totaling nearly a gigawatt of maximum capacity. It comes just weeks after Wind Scylla, the Cadeler-owned vessel specially designed to deploy turbines, completed work on Revolution Wind, Orstedâs flagship first project off the coast of Rhode Island. That the project is moving ahead as normal is a victory unto itself. The Trump administration pulled out every stop to halt construction of all offshore wind projects.
The Supreme Court ruled Friday that energy companies facing lawsuits over environmental damage to the Louisiana waterfront from oil and gas production can move those cases from state to federal court, where more favorable outcomes are expected. In a unanimous decision in favor of Chevron, Justice Clarence Thomas wrote that âCongress has long authorizedâ the transfer from state to federal courts. The New York Times described the ruling as âa significant victory for oil companies.â
The decision comes two months after the Supreme Court agreed to hear Suncor Energy Inc. v. County Commissioners of Boulder County, which concerns jurisdiction for âpublic nuisanceâ claims. Itâs still awaiting a hearing date. But the litigation, which dates back to 2018, came when the city and county of Boulder, Colorado, sued the oil giants Exxon Mobil and Suncor for damages from climate change, bringing charges under state law. âThe oil companies tried repeatedly to get the case dismissed, arguing that it belonged in federal court. But time and again, the courts disagreed. The Supreme Court already rejected an earlier petition to review the question of whether the case belonged in state or federal court in 2023,â Emily wrote in February. âNow it has agreed to consider a slightly different petition, filed last summer, over whether federal law preempts Boulderâs state-law claims.â
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Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly has agreed to work with the state of Indiana to build out âa future pathway for nuclear energy solutionsâ including âsmall modular reactors and other advanced nuclear technologies.â The drugmaker behind antidepressant Prozac and erectile dysfunction treatment Cialis signed a letter of intent with the state last month. The deal, first reported by Axios on Friday, marks the latest example of a big corporate power user laying out plans for atomic energy investments for something other than data centers. In 2022, the steelmaker Nucor signed a deal with nuclear developer NuScale to explore building a small modular reactor near one of its electric arc furnaces, and last year forged an alliance with The Nuclear Company to consider backing the startupâs efforts to establish a supply chain for building fleets of reactors. In 2023, Dow Chemical inked a deal with X-energy to use the next-generation nuclear developerâs high-temperature gas-cooled reactors to potentially swap out fossil fuels for splitting atoms as its industrial heat source.
Not all is looking rosy for the nuclear industry. Fermi America, the startup led by former Texas Governor Rick Perry and which promised to build a giant data enter complex backed by, isnât just âfaltering, itâs imploding,â according to a report by independent energy journalist Robert Bryce. But other projects are advancing. On Friday, the next-generation reactor startup Kairos Power broke ground on its demonstration project in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Then, on Saturday, Bloomberg reported The Nuclear Company was moving forward with a bid to finish construction of South Carolina's abandoned V.C. Summer nuclear plan.

Brazil is racing to develop its critical minerals as the U.S. looks for new sources in the hemisphere that can help Washington loosen Chinaâs grip over the metals. Just how to regulate the nascent industry is a hot topic in Brazilian politics right now. Lawmakers who back left-wing President Luiz InĂĄcio Lula da Silva are pushing to form a state-owned mining company. In a Sunday post on X, Lula boasted that Brazil âalready holds the worldâs largest reserve of niobium, the second largest of graphite and rare earths, and the third largest of nickelâ â and âonly 30% of the mineral potentialâ is mapped out as of yet. Following the lead of mineral-rich countries in Asia and Africa, Brazil said it would look to make deals for processing and refining. âWe will not repeat the role of mere exporters of mineral commodities,â Lula wrote. âWe are open to international partnerships that include stages of higher value added and technology transfer.â
That could be an opening for deals with China, which dominates the processing industry. Countries such as Indonesia and Zimbabwe banned exports of raw ore in a bid to capture more of the industrial supply chain. âThere are a lot of countries that want something like this right now,â Tim Puko, a minerals analyst at the Eurasia Group, told me on X. âBrazil is one of the few with a good chance of pulling it off.â
Japan may be facing record gas prices as the Iran War squeezed shipments of liquified natural gas. But itâs got some backup coming onto the grid from two sources of clean firm power. Unit 6 of the Tokyo Electric Power Companyâs Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant, a 1,356-megawatt Advanced Boiling Water Reactor shut down after Fukushima, has resumed commercial operation, World Nuclear News reported. Furusato Thermal Power has announced that the roughly 5-megawatt Waita No. 2 geothermal power plant, located in Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, has officially started commercial operations, just two years after construction started, ThinkGeoEnergy reported.
Investor and philanthropist John Doerr shares a refresh to his Speed & Scale climate action tracker.
John Doerr thinks itâs time to refresh his grand plan for decarbonization. The Kleiner Perkins chairman and climate-focused philanthropist published his book Speed & Scale: An Action Plan for Solving Our Climate Crisis Now five years ago; then a year later, he introduced an online tracker to measure global progress across the bookâs core objectives, which includes sectoral targets such as electrifying transport as well as execution-related goals that cut across all sectors such as winning on politics and policy and increasing investment investing.
But in the time since, both the world and the climate outlook have shifted significantly. So Doerr, alongside his co-author and advisor Ryan Panchadsaram, concluded that both the action plan and the metrics used to assess progress were due for a major revamp.
Heatmap got an exclusive look at the updated Speed & Scale tracker ahead of San Francisco Climate Week, where Doerr and Panchadsaram will unveil the new data and analytical framework underpinning this iteration. Designed to give budding entrepreneurs, business leaders, and policymakers a comprehensive view of where the world stands and how far it has to go in its fight against climate change, the tracker aims to help these stakeholders decide where to deploy their attention and capital.
Doerr told me the original plan has been a success in this regard. âWe became convinced by the number of entrepreneurs, founders, technology experts and policy people who said, you know, that Speed & Scale plan influenced my decision about what to do â not how to do it, but what ought to really be done,â he said.
But Doerr is also well aware that weâre living in a different world now. âWe had AI arrive and change the demand for electrical power, we have geopolitical forces that weâre trying to understand and cope with,â he told me. âAnd finally, thereâs just the indomitable power of markets and price. All of which is to say, we canât stick with a plan thatâs five years old. Itâs time to revise it.â
The updated plan preserves the six main objectives â electrify transportation, decarbonize the grid, fix food, protect nature, clean up industry, and remove carbon from the atmosphere â while including interim 2035 targets as well as 2050 targets aligned with a global net zero pathway. It also retains four other objectives on how to accelerate progress â that is, through politics and policy, turning movements into action, innovation, and investment. The team then breaks these 10 overarching priorities into subtargets called âkey results,â in accordance with the goal-setting framework that Doerr famously introduced to Google in the late 1990s that has since become widely adopted across the tech industry.
While the key results in the original plan framed targets in percentage terms â for example, âincrease EV sales to 50% of all new car sales by 2030â â the updated version uses absolute figures instead, such as âIncrease the number of electric cars to over 600 million by 2035.â The idea, Panchadsaram told me, is to make the targets more tangible and thus easier to understand and act upon.
Another major change is the data that Speed & Scale uses to measure progress, which has altered the emissions picture significantly. Previously, the tracker relied on emissions estimates from the United Nations Environment Programme, but itâs since switched to data from the independent organization Climate TRACE, which combines satellite imagery, remote-sensing, and artificial intelligence to produce a more granular, point-source view of global emissions. The new data illuminated sources that have historically been undercounted, such as wildfire activity and methane leaks. This updated methodology indicates that annual emissions are about 74 gigatons a year, not the 59 gigatons that the old tracker had estimated using the UNâs numbers.
It was a shock for the team to see how drastically the topline figure changed with this new data, Panchadsaram told me, though it reinforced their notion that key results should usually represent gigaton-level opportunities for emissions abatement. But given that the world is still lagging across so many of these metrics, the Speed & Scale team no longer thinks itâs possible to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, although they say staying under 2 degrees remains viable with increased ambition.
But itâs not all bad news. The updated tracker highlights six key results â out of 52 total â that the world is on track to meet. These include electric vehicle adoption and achieving cost parity with combustion cars, continued scaling of solar and wind generation, cost reductions for zero-emissions firm and variable power, and reducing operational emissions among Fortune Global 500 companies. Thereâs even one milestone that has already been reached â clean energy jobs now outnumber fossil fuel jobs, according to data from the International Energy Agency.
When I asked the duo whether they were surprised at where weâd managed to eke out climate wins, Panchadsaram told me, âI think we were right directionally on the technologies. Who ended up scaling them was probably the radical change.â For instance, Speed & Scale spent a lot of words on the electric bus manufacturer Proterra, a Kleiner Perkins-backed startup that filed for bankruptcy in 2023. At the same time, the book devoted just a few paragraphs to the Chinese automaker BYD, which surpassed Tesla in global sales last year.
Yet unfortunately and predictably, there is a lot of bad news to be found in this latest update, too. Seven key results are labeled âcode red,â indicating focus areas individually responsible for over 3 gigatons of annual emissions where thereâs been little to no progress. These include methane leaks, heating and cooling of buildings, livestock management, and the manufacture of steel and other industrial materials. Beyond this, the tracker is filled with categories where weâre making either âinsufficientâ progress or âfailing,â with the latter indicating stagnation in areas where the impact is less than 3 gigatons per year.
Many of the âcode redâ results represent hard-to-abate sectors where decarbonization technologies donât exist at scale, command a high green premium, or frequently both. This is a reality that Doerr and Panchadsaram are well aware of. âOur friend Al Gore always says, âWe have all the technologies we need to get to where we need to go. All we need is more political will,ââ Doerr told me. He thinks Gore is correct â to an extent. âWeâve got all the technologies we need to get us to 2030 or 2035. We donât have all the innovation we need to get us to 2050.â
To get even more granular on the innovation imperatives most critical to the energy transition, the Speed & Scale team partnered with organizations including Breakthrough Energy, McKinsey, Stanford Universityâs Doerr School of Sustainability, and Elemental Impact to develop the Climate Tech Map, which I covered last year. In combination with the updated Speed & Scale plan, the map is designed to direct innovators toward key technological frontiers while also giving them a foundational grounding in the structure and challenges of these sectors.
Other updates to the tracker also reflect our changing political and market realities, with certain targets now recalibrated to align with current conditions. For instance, while the old tracker aimed to make climate a top-three voter issue, âwe failed in achieving that objective,â Doerr told me. Climate messaging hasnât proven to be a particularly salient issue for voters on either side of the aisle, and the updated tracker now sets what the team thinks is a more attainable benchmark â making climate a top-five issue.
Of course, even that is still quite a bold goal, as are most of the key results that Speed & Scale hope to achieve. But thatâs the way it should be, Doerr said. âWhat was an opportunity has become an imperative, and so we have really got to step up our game and do it fast.â