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Even critical minerals can get complicated.

In northeastern Minnesota, a fight over the proposed NewRange Copper Nickel mine, better known as PolyMet, has dragged on for nearly two decades. Permits have been issued and revoked; state and federal agencies have been sued. The argument at the heart of the saga is familiar: Whether the pollution and disruption the mine will create are worth it for the jobs and minerals that it will produce.
The arguments are so familiar, in fact, that one wonders why we haven’t come up with a permitting and approval process that accounts for them. In total, the $1 billion NewRange project required more than 20 state and federal permits to move forward, all of which were secured by 2019. But since then, a number have been revoked or remanded back to the permit-issuing agencies. Just last year, for instance, the Army Corps of Engineers rescinded NewRange’s wetlands permit on the recommendation of the Environmental Protection Agency.
The messy history of this mine displays the difficult decisions the U.S. faces when it comes to securing the critical minerals that are key to a clean energy future — and the ways in which our current regulatory and permitting infrastructure is ill-equipped to resolve these tensions.
All sides in this debate recognize that minerals like nickel and copper are vital to the energy transition. Nickel is an integral component in most lithium-ion EV battery chemistries, and copper is used across a whole swath of technologies — electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind turbines, to name a few.
“We recognize that you're going to need copper, nickel, and other minerals in order to have a functioning society and to make the clean energy transition that we're all interested in,” Aaron Klemz, Chief Strategy Officer at the Minnesota Center for Environmental Advocacy, told me. But along with a number of other environmental groups and the Fond du Lac band of the Minnesota Chippewa tribe, which lives downstream of the proposed mine, MCEA opposes the project. “You can’t not mine. We understand that. But you have to take it on a case-by-case basis.”
On the one hand, the Duluth Complex, where the NewRange mine would be sited, contains one of the world’s largest untapped deposits of copper, nickel and other key metals. However, the critical minerals in this water-rich environment are bound to sulfide ores that can release toxic sulfuric acid when exposed to water and air. The proposed mine sits in a watershed that would eventually flow into Lake Superior, a critical source of drinking water for the Upper Midwest.
Many advocacy groups believe water pollution from the mine is inevitable, especially given NewRange’s plans for its waste basin. The current proposal involves covering the waste products, known as tailings, with water and containing the resulting slurry will with a dam. That’s considered much riskier than draining water from the tailings and “dry stacking” them in a pile. NewRange’s upstream dam construction method is also a concern, as the wet tailings can erode the dam’s walls more easily than with other designs. An upstream dam collapsed in Brazil in 2019, leading the country to ban this type of construction altogether.
And lastly, there’s the narrow question of the NewRange dam’s bentonite clay liner. Late last year, an administrative law judge recommended that state regulators refrain from reissuing NewRange’s permit to mine on the grounds that this liner was not a “practical and workable” method of containing the tailings.
Christie Kearney, director of sustainability, environmental and regulatory affairs for NewRange Copper Nickel, called these criticisms “tired and worn talking points” in a follow-up email to me, and said that the concerns simply don’t hold water “after the most comprehensive and lengthy environmental review and permitting process in Minnesota history.” The bentonite issue in particular, she told me, represents one of the main reasons permitting has been so challenging. “Instead of allowing agencies (who have the expertise) to make these decisions as established in Minnesota law, the regulatory decisions get challenged in court by mining opponents, leaving it to judges (who don’t have the technical expertise) to make these determinations,” she wrote.
The whole process could have gone more smoothly if all the stakeholders were involved from the beginning, she told me when we spoke. “In particular, we have a number of state permits that are overseen by the EPA, yet the EPA isn't involved until the very end, which has caused frustration both in our environmental review process as well as our permitting process.”
Klemz has another approach to ending the confusion. What is needed, he said, is a pathway to shut down projects once and for all if they’re deemed too environmentally hazardous. “There is no way to say no under the system we have now,” he told me. While courts can deny or revoke a permit, companies like NewRange can always go back to the drawing board and resubmit. “What we have instead is a system where the company has the incentive to keep on trying over and over and over again, despite whatever setback they encounter.”
While there’s no systematic way to block a mine, myriad avenues can lead to a “no.” Last year, the federal government placed a moratorium on mining on federal lands upstream of Minnesota’s Boundary Waters Canoe Wilderness Area, effectively shutting down another proposed copper-nickel mine. And the EPA banned the disposal of mine waste near Alaska’s proposed Pebble mine, blocking that project as well.
It’s a delicate balancing act, because ultimately the administration does want to incentivize domestic critical minerals production. The Inflation Reduction Act provides generous tax credits for companies involved in minerals processing, cathode materials production, and battery manufacturing. Then there’s the $7,500 credit available to consumers that purchase a qualifying EV, which depends on the automaker sourcing minerals from either the U.S. or a country the U.S. has a free-trade agreement with.
Under the current interpretation of the IRA, it’s possible that none of this money would flow directly to NewRange, since mineral extraction isn’t eligible for a tax credit, and it’s yet unclear whether the company will process the metals to a high enough grade to be eligible for credits there, either. Automakers that source from NewRange could benefit, but the project doesn’t currently have offtake agreements with any electric vehicle or clean energy company. That’s something that critics of the mine point to when NewRange touts its clean energy credentials.
“It's much more likely that this will end up in a string of Christmas lights than it will end up in a wind turbine in the United States,” Klemz told me. Of course, more critical minerals in the market overall will lower prices, thereby benefiting clean energy projects. But NewRange is a less neat proposition than, say, the proposed Talon Metals nickel mine, which is sited about two hours southwest of NewRange. As MIT Technology Review reports, this mine could unlock billions in federal subsidies through its offtake agreement with Tesla.
That hasn’t inoculated Talon from fierce local opposition, either. “As disinterested as the public may be in a lot of things, they are really engaged in a new mining project in their backyard,” said Adrian Gardner, Principal Nickel Markets Analyst at the energy and research consultancy Wood Mackenzie, which has been tracking both the Talon and NewRange mine since they were first proposed.
The Biden administration is also engaged. Two years ago, the Department of the Interior convened an interagency working group to make domestic minerals production more sustainable and efficient, starting with the Mining Law of 1872 — still the law of the land when it comes to new mining projects. The group released a report last September recommending, among other things, that the Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Forest Service provide standardized guidance to prospective developers and require meetings between all relevant agencies and potential developers before any applications are submitted. That means Congress will need to provide more resources to permitting agencies.
Those resources could come from a proposed royalty of between 4% and 8% on the net proceeds of minerals extracted from public lands, a fee that would also go to help communities most impacted by mining. The National Mining Association, of which NewRange is a member, has come out strongly against the report’s recommendations, highlighting the high royalties as a particular point of contention.
But many of the report’s proposals might have helped NewRange in its early days. “There were a lot of early missteps by the company,” Kearney admits. “The first draft [Environmental Impact Statement] that the company went through received a very poor reading from the EPA, and the company went back to its drawing board, changed out its leadership and its environmental leads.”
More stern rebukes, of course, would be the ideal for many advocacy groups. “I don't know how they could redesign it quite honestly, given what we know about the science, to comply with the law,” Klemz said.
Kearney is adamant, though, that even after five years of litigation, NewRange has no plans to give up the fight. “Not many companies can weather that,” Kearney said. Not many companies, however, are backed by mining giant Glencore. PolyMet, the project’s original developer, “really only survived because Glencore came in a few years back and invested over time until the point where they got 100% control,” Kearney told me.
Glencore, a $65 billion Swiss company, is pursuing the NewRange project in partnership with Teck Resources, which is worth $20 billion. The companies can afford to fight for a very long time, meaning nobody knows quite how or when this all ends.
“We do need this material. I get that,” Klemz told me. “So I don't really know if there's going to be some kind of neat future resolution to this.”
Kearney put it simply. “We don't have a timeline right now.”
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Risk-averse but deep-pocked institutional investors join the party.
When the Fusion Industry Association surveyed the sector earlier this month, it found that the industry’s 56 active companies had collectively raised more than $14.2 billion over the past five years. But an ever-larger share of that money is ending up in the hands of one startup: Commonwealth Fusion Systems.
With its latest $1 billion funding round, announced today, the MIT spinout now accounts for nearly 30% of all capital in the industry. The new financing, led by a wave of institutional investors entering the sector for the first time, will support construction of the company’s first commercial power plant in Chesterfield County, Virginia, which CEO Bob Mumgaard says is on track to come online in the early 2030s.
In a media briefing, Mumgaard noted that this latest raise marks “the largest single funding round among fusion energy companies since our last large round of $1.8 billion in 2021.” It brings the total capital raised by CFS to an even $4 billion as the company races to complete construction of SPARC, its demo reactor. If all goes according to plan, it should begin operating sometime next year, proving out the physics and engineering approach underpinning ARC, the planned commercial plant.
The new financing deviates from the typical venture capital round, as it brings in a broad but unnamed mix of “large pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, infrastructure funds doing project finance, and industrial corporates.” These risk-averse investors would typically steer clear of expensive, first-of-a-kind facilities, demonstrating the degree to which CFS has succeeded in building confidence in an industry long critiqued for overpromising and underdelivering.
The company credits the trust it built to its extensive peer-reviewed research as well as its decision to build a tokamak — widely regarded as the most mature fusion reactor design. “I don’t think there’s any other company that’s been as transparent and open with their physics and how it actually works,” Katie Rae, CEO and managing partner at Engine Ventures, told me. Rae has participated in every one of CFS’s funding rounds, and while she says her firm has evaluated virtually every startup in the sector, the company remains its only fusion investment.
But even flush with institutional capital, Mumgaard is clear that the company will need billions more to fully finance ARC and the numerous reactors to follow. It’s unclear where exactly that money will come from, though he’s pushing for government involvement. Alongside the Fusion Industry Association, Mumgaard is advocating for a one-time, roughly $10 billion federal infusion of cash into the broader industry to expand public-private partnerships, build shared research infrastructure, and help finance first-of-a-kind plants in an effort to keep pace with China’s rapidly growing fusion program.
According to reporting from Politico, a Department of Energy official told CFS and other fusion companies that such a level of federal funding is “unrealistic in this environment.” But though insiders argue it’s what the industry needs to scale, Rae says CFS doesn’t depend on it. “I think it is the right kind of investment to make, but we didn’t count on it from an investor perspective,” she told me.
One obvious alternative is the public markets. The IPO window for climate tech has reopened, with geothermal giant Fervo and nuclear fission startup X-energy both completing successful public offerings in recent months. SPACs have also made a comeback, as numerous nuclear companies are opting for this faster, though riskier, path to the public markets. But CFS’s newly appointed CFO, Lorence Kim, said during the briefing that this latest round proves “that the private markets have a lot of capital to deploy toward our mission.” Whether an IPO is in the company’s near future remains an open question, though he cautioned against interpreting his hiring as any indication of “IPO prep in a specific way.”
For what it’s worth though, Kim has taken another high-profile, pre-revenue startup public before: Moderna. As CFO from 2014 to 2020, he helped the company scale its mRNA platform and lead its blockbuster $600 million IPO in late 2018 — the largest ever in the biotech industry at the time. Notably, this all happened before Moderna had an approved product or the Covid pandemic made its signature vaccine a household name, similar to where Commonwealth finds itself today.
“Moderna was in this moment in time where the science worked, and the strategy was focused on execution and scale and deploying capital in a way that could enable real impact on the world,” Kim explained. CFS is now at the same juncture, he said. “And so in the same way that Moderna industrialized mRNA and made it inevitable and made it ubiquitous, it was really clear to me that CFS could do the same for fusion.”
Of course, CFS is not alone in its confidence — other fusion companies are equally bullish on their own approach. Take Inertia Enterprises, a Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory spinout, which last week unveiled its own commercial roadmap for a laser-driven fusion reactor. The company emphasized it’s the only one to have definitively demonstrated the viability of its underlying physics in a real-world experiment, rather than through theoretical work or simulations.
Or take Helion, which has raised $1.5 billion and secured a highly ambitious power purchase agreement with Microsoft to supply electricity to the tech giant by 2028. Or Pacific Fusion, which netted a staggering $900 million Series A to be doled out in milestone-based tranches. There are dozens of others — many with hundreds of millions in funding — pursuing a range of approaches that some of the field’s brightest minds consider technically feasible.
But when I mused to Rae about how exciting it is that institutional investors now appear willing to back an industry once viewed as bordering on science fiction, she was quick to correct me.
“They’re willing to bet on Commonwealth Fusion — that’s what you mean.”
At least one hyperscaler’s big bets seem to be paying off.
This is an edition of Heatmap Daily, an evening review of the day’s news written by our executive editor. Sign up for it here.
Good evening. Let’s start with the news. Meta and Microsoft released their most recent quarterly earnings this evening, and Wall Street was watching to figure out if their enormous AI spending plans are paying off. We were watching because those proposals are shaping one of the most important energy stories today: the data center boom and the sharp return of electricity demand.
The returns were … mixed. Meta missed analysts’ estimates, and its profit fell 14% from the same quarter a year earlier. It increased the lower bound of how much it plans to spend on capital expenditures such as data centers this year, from $125 billion to $130 billion, but left the upper bound of $145 billion unchanged.
Microsoft, meanwhile, said its AI investments are starting to pay off. Revenue at its cloud business, which uses its data center space, increased by 43%, more than analysts expected. It spent $41 billion on capital expenses in the three months ending in June.
Meta’s stock was down 7% in after-hours trading, while Microsoft is up 8%. When Heatmap surveyed climate insiders last year, they ranked Microsoft as among the most decarbonization-friendly hyperscaler and Meta as among the worst.
Permitting odds up — thanks to Shift Key?
I do not regularly follow such things, but this afternoon I was told that the Kalshi market for “Will permitting reform become law this year?” surged to 77% today after trading for days around 50%:
I have no idea why it budged today, but perhaps what moved the market was our new episode of the Shift Key podcast (Apple, Spotify). On today’s show, I spoke with Daniel Palken, a former Capitol Hill policy staffer now at Arnold Ventures, about the current state of permitting reform negotiations in Congress. While we don’t know the exact shape of a deal yet, permitting reform is likely to be the biggest new policy for clean energy that we could get by the end of the year.
Daniel is a fantastic guide to the negotiations, and if you’re curious about the policy at all, I recommend that you listen. Here are few of my takeaways from the conversation:
1. A permitting reform deal will probably have six buckets.
They are (1) changes to the National Environmental Policy Act and the judicial review process that environmental studies face after completion; (2) reforms to the transmission process; (3) changes to the Clean Water Act; (4) a deal to make it harder for presidents to yank permits from approved projects; (5) changes to the National Historic Preservation Act, and (6) “everything else,” a grab bag of smaller fixes including to geothermal energy.
2. Wonky committee politics are shaping the deal.
The National Historic Preservation Act, for instance, is an archeological law that hasn’t been in the mix for previous reform proposals. It’s up for discussion now because Senator Mike Lee of Utah chairs the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee — and the NHPA is the major environmental bill under his jurisdiction. Likewise, observers think that a permitting deal has a much better shot of passing during this Congress (as compared to next year) because of an expected series of changes to committee chairs.
3. It’s way, way better to hook data centers to the power grid than run them off behind-the-meter power plants — even if they run off 100% natural gas.
Any permitting reform proposal will seek to expand the transmission system. That could have big benefits for the emissions intensity of data centers. Why? I’ll let Daniel explain:
If you look at the data centers that are hooking up off grid — when they’re not using repurposed jet engines, they’re using 20% thermally efficient gas plants. Whereas if you’re hooked up to the grid, there’s really two types of gas plants that live on the grid. There’s like 60% efficient combined-cycle gas turbines, which are most of the gas power that’s generated, and then there’s peaker [plants], which have low efficiency, but are run at capacity factors of like 5% — so from an emissions perspective, they don’t matter all that much.
So even if solar and wind didn’t exist at all, and nuclear didn’t exist, and hydro didn’t exist, it would still be a much, much cleaner option [to connect data centers to the power grid]. Like we’re talking factors of three in efficiency to connect your data center to the grid if it was purely powered by gas, which is, I think, an important point to understand.
I thought that was an interesting point, and while I’d seen some of those ideas in isolation, I’d never seen them laid out in one place. (And even if grid-scale gas plants are much more efficient than behind-the-meter plants, it’s still even better to power data centers with solar, batteries, and other clean firm power plants — which is also easier when they’re hooked up to the grid.)
I’ll stop glossing the episode and just link to it one more time. Thanks for reading.
On nuclear waste, a Nevada solar farm, and lithium-harvesting nanorobots
Current conditions: France just ordered 4,000 more people to evacuate the wildfires that have now displaced a third of a million people across southwestern Europe • The heat dome in the southwestern United States is driving temperatures in Phoenix up to 113 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the week • Temperatures in Tuscany are topping 100 degrees this week as Europe’s latest heat wave takes hold.
Just yesterday, I told you that China’s dominance over the manufacturing of the inverters needed to patch solar panels and batteries onto the grid and into data centers had peaked two years ago as Europe’s factories began booming. Hours after the newsletter landed in your inbox, the Trump administration unveiled plans to ban imports of Chinese power inverters in a bid to protect the U.S. buildout of artificial intelligence from sabotage and competition. On Tuesday, the Federal Communications Commission told CNBC its new restrictions aimed to safeguard the AI supply chain “from Chinese threats of disruption, data threat, and cyber attacks.” The measures also bar imports of Chinese-made humanoid and quadruped robots. As you may recall, Reuters broke news in May 2025 that the U.S. government had discovered rogue communications devices in the Chinese-made inverters. The story came out just a month after a frequency problem that stemmed from Spain’s struggle to sufficiently patch all of its solar generation on the grid triggered a blackout across Iberia, highlighting the sort of scenario a compromised “killswitch” device could set off in a bid to attack energy systems.
The ban is good news for America’s beleaguered solar manufacturing industry, which the Trump administration has championed with tariffs but hobbled by axing key federal tax credits that included bonuses for projects using domestically produced panels. T1 Energy, shares of which nosedived this week after the latest quarterly earnings showed losses far outpacing revenue, just spent another $135 million on patents from a rival in Singapore in a bid to vertically integrate production of a more efficient type of photovoltaic technology. Tesla, meanwhile, is promising to “multiply” American solar production by “an order of magnitude.” Yet Elon Musk’s behemoth is cutting long-term deals to buy other people’s solar power. The company just inked an agreement with a KKR-backed solar and battery project in Arizona to buy 90% of its output.

Reasonable people debate just how much electricity is needed to satisfy the demands of the data center boom — and the bears are likely to get a boost amid this week’s selloff of AI stocks. But the latest projections from the Rhodium Group forecast U.S. electricity demand growth to accelerate over the next 15 years, “growing faster than it has since the turn of the century.” Data centers will account for between 62% and 77% of the growth in 2030, and between 59% and 66% in 2040, ultimately reaching 17% of total electricity demand that year. Electric vehicles will make up the second-largest source of new demand growth in the low- and mid-emissions scenarios the consultancy outlined through 2040. In the high-emissions scenario, heavy industry will account for a quarter of the demand growth between 2025 and 2040. Overall, the findings show divergent pathways in the 2030s. By 2040, the U.S. will either reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 41% below 2005 levels — or just 27%. Across all three scenarios, the “historic influx of renewables” coming online between now and 2030 keeps emissions declining. After 2030, however, the grid’s trajectory either continues to deploy nearly 53 gigawatts of renewables per year through 2040 in a low-emissions scenario or drops to 3 gigawatts per year in a high-emissions scenario where cheap natural gas dominates.
For months now, the Greenhouse Gas Protocol, the nonprofit behind a voluntary but widely used corporate standard for carbon accounting rules, has been revising its approach. Last year, my colleague Emily Pontecorvo explained the stakes of the revision process as an “obscure philosophical battle that could reshape the clean energy economy. In April, she broke news from whistleblowers that the changes underway were drumming up controversy. This morning she’s out with a new story on Greenhouse Gas Protocol’s plans to marry its standard to those by the International Organization for Standardization. The short of it is this: the changes are getting a lot of pushback, and credibility of the forthcoming new standard remains an open question.
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For decades, the U.S. plan to deal with nuclear waste has focused on building a highly controversial repository in the Nevada desert. But that effort, as I explained yesterday, was put on indefinite hiatus in 2010 when the Obama administration canceled funding on behalf of then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat. In the meantime, states such as Texas and New Mexico have demonstrated that both Republican and Democratic governments are still willing to fight efforts to build intermediate-term storage facilities for nuclear waste in their states. On Tuesday, five states officially stepped up and made bids to host what the Department of Energy is calling its Nuclear Lifecycle Innovation Campuses, which will house startups that recycle spent nuclear waste into fresh fuel and medical isotopes. The Energy Department named Utah, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Idaho as finalists for the facilities. “I’m pleased to announce that after reviewing 28 applications from 26 states, the Energy Department has selected five initial contenders to further explore building Nuclear Lifecycle Innovation Campuses,” Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said in a statement. “These campuses will be massive generators of economic growth, create thousands of high-paying jobs, and be crucial to unleashing America’s nuclear renaissance.”
Just last week, the Energy Department opened the door to nuclear projects sited on floating offshore platforms. It’s a novel idea for the U.S., but Russia launched its Akademik Lomonosov, a floating nuclear station, in 2019 in what is widely recognized as the world’s first real small modular reactor and only operating non-land nuclear plant. A new peer-reviewed study the World Nuclear Association conducted on the Rosatom-owned plant ranked it “on par with Russia’s top units,” World Nuclear News reported.
Trump’s permitting freeze for renewables projects started to thaw for solar in particular earlier this year as the administration faced mounting pressure to stop thwarting the fastest-growing source of power in a country increasingly starved for new and swiftly available sources of electricity. The easing, as my colleague Jael Holzman wrote, was also part of a legal strategy. Regardless of the reasoning, the thaw is continuing — and not just because of the literal heat dome pushing temperatures in the Southwest into the triple digits. On Tuesday, the Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Land Management announced plans to advance a solar project in the Nevada desert. The Mosey solar farm, which would produce enough power at maximum output for 200,000 homes, is now under evaluation at the agency’s Nevada office, the agency notified the Federal Register. The regulator plans to conduct an environmental analysis and a resource management plan tweak needed for a project in a utility corridor. E&E News credited the administration’s shift on this particular project to lobbying by the state’s Republican governor, Joe Lombardo.
The project is part of developer Clearway’s larger efforts in Nevada. Separately, the company has volunteered to scrap one of its other solar projects in favor of building a gas plant, Jael reported this week.
Yesterday, I told you the board of PJM Interconnection had scheduled an emergency auction to drum up 7 gigawatts of additional capacity to supply the electricity demand from data centers starting in 2028. It’s just one incremental way the nation’s largest grid system is “lurching toward reforms,” as my colleague Matthew Zeitlin wrote. It’s also inching toward more actual power infrastructure. On Wednesday, the developer Eolian Energy started construction on Flint Grid, a 1 gigawatt-hour storage project outside Columbus, Ohio. Located near a hub of data center and industrial power users, the Flint Grid project is “the first large-scale battery energy storage system to qualify for the PJM capacity market.” If it comes online in spring 2027 as promised on the project’s new website, it will represent more than half the new battery storage capacity in PJM’s line up for 2027 to 2028. The project is also the first grid-scale battery project permitted by the Ohio Power Siting Board and the largest in the PJM territory to date.
“There’s growing consternation about how the US can rapidly scale infrastructure to support America’s growing electricity demand, but not nearly enough conversation about how to use existing technology to unlock the wasted capacity that already exists on the grid,” Eolian founder and CEO Aaron Zubaty said in a statement. “This project requires hundreds of millions of dollars to construct, and we committed the necessary capital and resources years before today’s demand forecasts became headline news. As policymakers consider changes to competitive electricity markets, it’s critical that they avoid undermining the long-term investments already.”
Lithium production typically involves either mining hard rocks or extracting salts through brines. Both are water intensive processes with considerable environmental tolls. Scientists at Texas A&M University are now developing a new approach involving the deployment of tiny, fish-like swimming nanorobots that capture lithium ions from seawater. Backed by a $1 million Energy Department grant, it’s among more than a dozen projects the agency is supporting in a bid to bolster domestic critical mineral supplies. “Unlike traditional mining that digs up land or pumps brine from underground and requires massive amounts of energy, these autonomous micro/nanorobots move freely through seawater to harvest lithium with virtually zero infrastructure footprint,” Jingjing Qiu, one of the mechanical engineers leading the research, said in a statement.