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On the EV transition, natural gas prices, and reforestation

Current conditions: A sandstorm blanketed China’s Xinjiang region in a cloud of yellow dust • Perth, Australia, has seen seven February days with temperatures over 104 degrees Fahrenheit • At least three planes hit speeds of 800 mph thanks to a powerful jet stream over the Atlantic.
The Biden administration will scale back a proposal to set aggressive limits on vehicle tailpipe emissions, a move seen as a “concession to automakers and labor unions,” The New York Times reported over the weekend. Two sources confirmed the news to Reuters, as well. The Environmental Protection Agency’s original proposal, aimed at speeding the nation’s shift to zero-emissions electric vehicles, would have resulted in EVs making up 60% of new vehicle sales by 2030, rising to 67% by 2032. For context, EVs accounted for just 7.6% of new car sales last year. Carmakers and the United Auto Workers union called the proposal unreasonable, citing high EV prices and a lack of charging infrastructure. The new rules are expected to give manufacturers more time to ramp up EV sales. The move “could be worth it” if it boosts Biden’s re-election bid against Donald Trump, analysts told the Times. But some researchers warn it will lead to faster warming.
The West Coast isn’t getting much relief from the rain. Another atmospheric river is lashing California, following intense rain earlier this month that triggered flooding and landslides across cities including Los Angeles. Those regions are expected to see “much less rain” with this storm, which will continue through Wednesday, but some areas remain at risk of flooding and mudslides because they’re still saturated from the last soaker. Flood watches are in effect up and down the coastline, covering nearly 30 million people. The flood risk will be highest Tuesday morning, according to weather service meteorologist David Gomberg.
Natural gas prices in the U.S. are nearing their lowest levels in 30 years thanks to a lack of demand combined with soaring production, the Financial Times reported. The country is experiencing its warmest winter on record due to a combination of global warming and El Niño, so demand for the fuel to help heat homes is low. Meanwhile, gas production hit a record high in December. But some producers have signaled they plan to cut back on drilling programs.
Therapists are seeing more patients experiencing climate anxiety, and they’re grappling with the best ways to treat them, reported Bloomberg. Weather disasters and big climate conferences tend to be followed by an uptick in patients, and scientists studying the crisis are especially vulnerable. Most therapists aren’t making any diagnoses, because “anxiety about climate change isn’t a disorder.” Instead they’re looking for a new playbook for treating a rising existential threat. One interesting observation? It seems climate anxiety and climate denial can sometimes overlap: “The conspiracy theorists are reassuring,” psychotherapist Caroline Hickman said. “If you can’t tolerate anxiety, you will then spin off into believing somebody who gives you false promises.”
Research suggests that reforestation efforts in the southeastern United States have helped cool the region over the last century. “In addition to regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, forests modify surface and near-surface air temperatures,” the authors wrote. They estimate the annual cooling effect of forests to be between 1.8 degrees and 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. On sweltering summer days, the trees lower temperatures by up to 9 degrees Fahrenheit. “Moving forward, we need to think about tree planting not just as a way to absorb carbon dioxide but also the cooling effects in adapting for climate change, to help cities be resilient against these very hot temperatures,” Mallory Barnes, an environmental scientist at Indiana University, told The Guardian.
“[R]ather than echoing the concerns of a vocal minority that opposes any form of climate action, we need to effectively communicate that the vast majority of people around the world are willing to act against climate change and expect their national government to act.” –A team of researchers behind a recent study that found we may be vastly underestimating global support for climate action
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On EPA’s microplastics push, Puerto Rican solar, and Jonathan the tortoise
Current conditions: Heavy thunderstorms are pummeling the central United States with rain through the weekend • Once Good Friday’s rainclouds clear over Vatican City, the Catholic capital is set for sun and 70-degree Fahrenheit temperatures on Easter Sunday • Just days after Cyclone Narelle turned the skies over Western Australia blood red, the country is bracing for another storm brewing in the Coral Sea that could make landfall on the Christian holiday.
The Environmental Protection Agency vowed Thursday to attempt to lower the levels of microplastics and pharmaceuticals in the drinking water of hundreds of millions of Americans. At a press conference, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said his agency would propose adding both categories to a list of priority pollutants, a move that could free up more federal research dollars for examining how the substances get into the environment, how they harm human health, and what treatment solutions exist for contaminated reservoirs. The effort could lead to what The New York Times called “costly new standards that water utilities would need to meet.” But the environmental litigators at Earthjustice dismissed the announcement as “a PR stunt that doesn't require a single test, set a single drinking water standard, or protect a single community.”
Critics of plastic pollution point to the groundswell of new single-use materials made from petrochemicals, which have been some of the fastest-growing divisions within major oil companies.
Maine is one of the last states to maintain a ban on nuclear reactors, and its voters sided with local fossil fuel producers just a few years to block construction of a power line connecting New England’s grid to Quebec’s hydroelectric system. Now the state is poised to freeze construction of large data centers. A new bill would put a moratorium in place until November 2027, so the state can assess the impact the artificial intelligence boom is having on its environment and the power grid. The freeze would apply to data centers of at least 20 megawatts, which The Wall Street Journal noted was enough to power more than 15,000 homes. The legislation picked up a few Republican votes when it passed a floor vote last month in the Democratic-controlled Maine House of Representatives. Governor Janet Mills, a Democrat running for U.S. Senate, has endorsed the bill.
Overall, Maine saw a nearly 60% spike in the total cost of electricity bills between 2021 and 2026, according to data from Heatmap and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s new Electricity Price Hub. With Maine’s Senate race captivating Democrats amid Mills’ showdown with left-wing populist Graham Platner, it’s worth remembering that, as Heatmap’s Jael Holzman wrote last November, the “data center backlash is swallowing American politics.”
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You know that demand for gas turbines to power data centers and power plants is so high that manufacturers are backordered through the end of the decade. Let me put a price on that supply and demand mismatch for you. New data from the consultancy Wood Mackenzie shows that turbine prices are headed to $600 per kilowatt by the end of next year. That’s up 195% since 2019. Global orders today sit at 110 gigawatts as of the end of 2025, but global manufacturing capacity is only capable of about 65 gigawatts. But as this chart shows and Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin predicted would happen last year, U.S.-based manufacturing capacity is expanding:

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Puerto Rico’s grid is a disaster. When Governor Jenniffer González Colón, a pro-statehood Republican, took power earlier this year, one of her first moves was to extend the life of the island’s lone coal plant and step up efforts to get more gas infrastructure operating in America’s most populous territory. But one bright spot has been rooftop solar, as thousands of Puerto Ricans — frustrated by weekly if not daily outages and bleeding dry from the cost of keeping diesel generators fueled — install solar panels on their roofs. A virtual power plant set up to tap many of those systems is already making a big impact. And new data from the Energy Information Administration shows why. Rooftop solar made up 81% of all new generating capacity installation in Puerto Rico between 2016 and 2025, totaling 1,456 megawatts:

Commonwealth Fusion Systems, a spinout from MIT, is considered the top fusion startup racing to commercialize the holy grail of clean energy in the U.S., raising more money than any other firm in the space so far. Now the company is teaming up with another fusion startup, Realta, which is looking to make small, scalable reactors. Both startups vowed to work together in a strategic partnership on the design and manufacturing of high-temperature conducting magnets. “This partnership allows Realta to tap into the world-class supply chain we built to support our advanced manufacturing capabilities, and that will help it to bring commercial fusion energy to the grid faster,” Commonwealth Fusion Systems CEO and co-founder Bob Mumgaard said in a statement. In an interview with Axios, Rick Needham, Commonwealth’s chief commercial officer, said the Iran War “really does open the world’s eyes to what could be a solution that doesn’t rely on those geopolitically fraught supply chains.”
U.S. companies are also facing more competition. As I told you last year, China is now outspending the entire world on fusion — right as, as Heatmap’s Katie Brigham put it two years ago, “it is possibly, finally, almost time” for the energy source to become a real thing.

Reports of Jonathan the tortoise’s death have been greatly exaggerated. An account on X that was impersonating Joe Hollins, the veterinarian who serves the world’s oldest land animal, claimed on Wednesday that the giant tortoise had died at age 193. But the real Joe Hollins told USA Today: “Jonathan the tortoise is very much alive. I believe on X the person purporting to be me is asking for crypto donations, so it’s not even an April Fool joke. It’s a con.” May Jonathan survive to see the rapid evolution of even more new kinds of online hucksters.
The cost impacts can be felt for years.
In an era of extreme weather, infrastructure repair and hardening charges are piling up for utilities — and for ratepayers. Utilities in at least 18 U.S. states are now passing on disaster-related charges in electricity bills, according to data from Heatmap and MIT’s new Electricity Price Hub. And as extreme weather continues apace with climate change, those costs will only get higher.
Though California and Florida remain the expected outliers, the disaster recovery pattern is decidedly national, spanning the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, Southeast, and Appalachia, with 36 utilities having introduced at least one specific disaster-related charge since 2020. Often, such charges are tacked on years after the disaster they’re intended to address, and they sometimes begin at such a low cost as to be almost invisible to customers before ratcheting up.
Compared with generation, transmission, and distribution costs, disaster recovery charges are frequently a small line item on bills. For DTE customers in Detroit — where powerful windstorms can knock out power for days — a base securitization charge associated with tree trimming (and the retirement of the River Rouge coal plant) has increased by just over a tenth of a cent per kilowatt-hour since 2022. That’s compared to about three pennies per kilowatt-hour for all the other DTE rate increases over the same period, combined.
Starting last year, customers of Kentucky Power Co. have likewise been paid three securitized surcharge riders, totaling about $0.01 per kilowatt-hour, to help cover $78.8 million in “deferred storm costs” related to major storms that hit the state every year between 2020 and 2023. That’s about $12 added to the average Kentucky Power Co customer’s bill, or an increase of roughly 6%.
Securitization is one method utilities use to deal with debt incurred due to extreme weather. Such plans allow utilities to issue long-term low-interest bonds to cover disaster-related costs upfront, avoiding shorter-term loans and the sticker shock of a large rate jump for ratepayers. In the case of Kentucky Power, securitization allowed the utility to avoid what would have been a 13.1% rate increase, per the Kentucky Public Service Commission.
Because securitization charges are tied to bond payments and are periodically adjusted, our data shows the associated disaster recovery charge for Kentucky Power has dropped slightly since it was introduced in 2025. The downside to securitization, though, is that — as, again, in the case of Kentucky Power — ratepayers will be footing the costs of the 2020-23 storm seasons for a long time: more than two decades. And while the cost per bill might be small now, by the time the 20-year recovery period is up, there will almost certainly have been further damaging storms in the state. Those costs accumulate.
The process of securitization also requires legislative approval from the state and the blessing of the local regulator. For lower and more routine damage, weatherization, and emergency operating costs, utilities can use a faster-acting rider instead.
Riders, however, can ramp up once storm costs are tallied. Oklahoma Gas & Electric’s storm cost recovery rider, for example, started at just $0.000739 per kilowatt-hour in 2020, our first year of data, and has since ballooned by 460%.
While that amounts to only about $4 to $5 a month on the average customer’s $136 electricity bill, in states like California and Florida, cost recovery can be much higher. Tampa Electric customers are in the midst of an 18-month payment plan to cover $464 million in restoration costs from Hurricanes Helene and Milton in 2024, or about a $22 increase in the average customer’s monthly bill. That’s in addition to the utility’s Storm Protection Plan, which began in 2020 and funds grid-hardening measures such as undergrounding power lines, and runs about $8 per month for the average customer — or a combined $360 per year.
FPL Northwest Florida — formerly Gulf Power, serving northwestern Florida — has a $385 million storm protection plan to harden its grid. That cost is reflected in a 2,589% increase in the utility’s “Storm Protection Plan Cost Recovery” charge since 2021, due to the cascading costs of hurricanes. Duke Energy Florida’s storm protection plan charge is up almost 3,000% since it was introduced in 2021, also related to infrastructure hardening.
But hurricanes are also a problem in Louisiana, where smaller rural co-ops don’t have the same access to financing as large investor-owned utilities. Six Louisiana electric cooperatives in our database have added disaster-related riders since 2021: Jefferson Davis Elec Coop, Inc, as a reactive measure to address the costs of the 2020 hurricane season; South Louisiana Electric Coop and Southwest Louisiana EMC with riders in 2022 to help with recovery from Hurricane Ida and others in 2021; and Pointe Coupee Elec Member Corp, Claiborne Electric Coop Inc, and Concordia Electric Coop, Inc, all with emergency reserve fund riders added in 2025.
“Tornadoes, straight-line winds, tropical storms, ice storms, and even the occasional hurricane can cause millions of dollars in damage in a single day,” Claiborne wrote to its customers to justify the increase last year. “As much as we wish we could control the weather and keep storms at bay, we know future harmful storms are inevitable.” (All six co-ops have also seen their total rates increase between 2021 and the latest available data, with Claiborne rising by almost 38%.)
Many West Coast utilities are also bracing for a future full of extreme weather-related disasters. Washington State’s Puget Sound Energy has added a surcharge of about $14 per year to electricity customers to recover the costs from its forward-looking Wildfire Mitigation and Response Plan. PacifiCorp and Portland General Electric Co., both in Oregon, are likewise passing fire-related mitigation costs, such as vegetation management, onto their customers. For California’s PG&E, wildfire-related charges accounted for roughly 18% of system costs in the five years preceding 2023, though those charges are also rolled into distribution costs and aren’t always clearly itemized.
Due in part to regulatory lag, the impacts of major storms such as the 2024 hurricanes that affected Tampa often aren’t felt by ratepayers for years. As the Electricity Price Hub data shows, increases in disaster recovery-related rate charges don’t neatly map to major disaster years, or even necessarily to the years immediately following them. Due in part to legal mechanics, customers in Kansas only started to see the passed-on costs of elevated natural gas prices from the 2021 Winter Storm Uri on their 2023 bills.
It is also not uncommon for costs to start so low they’re almost unnoticeable to customers before growing in scale. Alabama Power’s Natural Disaster Reserve started at a mere $0.000645 per kilowatt-hour in 2020, but has risen 155% to $0.001642 per kilowatt-hour. While that still represents only a handful of dollars per month on the average customer’s $261 monthly bill, it shows that disaster charges that slip onto bills might not stay “invisible” forever.
One major limitation of our data: Utilities don’t always neatly identify riders and surcharges related to storms and extreme weather, and costs might also be rolled into distribution and transmission base rates. After a hurricane, for example, a utility might include grid-hardening costs as capital expenditures, passing them on to customers as increased distribution costs related to infrastructure, rather than flagging them as specific “disaster” charges. This means that disaster surcharges visible in the data, including those cited in this article, should be taken as bare minima.
Temporary riders can also be replaced — as in the case of Entergy Mississippi’s SD-9 rider, which dated back to Hurricane Katrina and addressed “extraordinary incremental storm damage costs,” which appears to zero out in our data. In fact, it was followed up by a 2024 storm damage mitigation and restoration rider aimed at creating a fund to absorb the shocks of “windstorms, ice storms, thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, wildfires, or other such events.” The 2024 rider is nearly three times as high as the one it replaced.
In other words, while we’ve been able to single out 58 specific charges that utilities have identified as either addressing or anticipating extreme weather-related disasters since 2020, that is almost certainly an undercount. While still being illustrative, the data also points to an even bigger takeaway: This is just the tip of the iceberg. The true cost to ratepayers — and the extent of weather-related impacts on electricity bills around the country — will be much larger.
That means more electrification, more stockpiling, and more coal.
Much of the world — or at least much of Asia — seems to be responding to the energy stress caused by the Iran War by attempting to reshape itself in China’s image.
The oil, refined products, and natural gas that is supposed to be flowing through the Strait of Hormuz was largely destined for Asian countries, which are now learning a harsh lesson in the dangers of foreign fossil fuel dependence.
One country whose economy has been relatively resilient to the crisis, however, is China.
That’s despite the fact that China is the world’s second-largest consumer of oil (and its largest importer) and its third-largest consumer of gas (and largest consumer of liquified natural gas). But it has not seen the same type of immediate crisis that other Asian energy importers have. It may be the No. 1 customer of oil coming through the Strait of Hormuz (and especially Iranian oil, which is still flowing), but its main policy adjustment the government has made since the United States and Israeli attack has been to limit exports of refined products. It also came into the crisis with stockpiles of oil estimated at 1.4 billion barrels, more than three times the amount of oil the International Energy Agency coordinated the release of.
In the short run, many Asian countries, especially poorer ones, are embracing energy use restrictions, including limitations on driving and raising temperatures in government buildings, while some richer countries are able to increase supply by rebooting nuclear plants and upping capacity limitations on coal-fired power plants.
In the longer run, several countries are making investments in energy sources that are less dependent on imported fossil fuels. In Vietnam, the developer behind a planned liquified natural gas project asked the government to allow it to instead build a solar and batteries project. The Southeast Asian nation also inked a deal with Russia to work on its first nuclear power project.
There’s also early data of bottom up as well as top down embracing of electrification, with exports from Chinese EV juggernaut BYD increasing and “bustling showrooms across Asia,” Bloomberg News reported.
This has largely been China’s playbook. China’s energy policy has seen huge pushes in electrification, renewables, and clean energy, both at home (38% of its electricity comes from clean sources, and it’s responsible for more than half of world solar and wind capacity additions) and abroad, where China is the leading supplier of solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles, and has made deliberate efforts to dominate global supply of clean energy technology through exports.
But the country is not pursuing a crash decarbonization policy in order to bring emissions down as fast as possible, in line with global targets. Instead, as Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer and Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air explained on a recent episode of Shift Key, China’s energy policy is based around several goals, some of which line up with decarbonization, and some of which don’t.
The first is energy security, and specifically mitigating dependence on seaborne imports of fossil fuels, which can mean both stockpiling oil and embracing renewables. The second is domestic air quality, which means strict particulate pollution policies, moving heavy industry closer to power sources in the south and west of the country and away from large cities in the east, and seeking to replace coal home heating with natural gas. And the third, as Myllyvirta put it, is “wanting to make sure that China has technological leadership [and] market leadership” in the energy technologies of the future, which can explain the industrial policy efforts around solar, batteries, and electric vehicles and their development into world-leading export industries.
This is also an approach to energy policy that’s perfectly consistent with burning and buying a lot of fossil fuels, as many Asian countries are looking to do today, with coal utilization going up as countries scramble to find new sources of imported natural gas.
Several energy analysts have forecasted that China’s experience of the Iran crisis will lead to increased stockpiling worldwide, and thus become a new source of incremental demand for oil, even if global demand for oil in transportation plateaus or falls.
“Countries that have been building their strategic storage — most notably China — look prescient today. Others may respond by starting to do the same,” a team of Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note to clients in the early weeks of the Hormuz crisis. “On paper, that is ‘inventory building.’ In practice, it behaves like incremental demand: persistent buying on dips, greater willingness to pay for security of supply, and a higher floor under the price distribution than we assumed before the Strait went quiet.”
And you can’t build stockpiles of oil to cushion disruptions to global trade without buying the oil in the first place. Those stockpiles presume that your economy maintains some base-level dependence on oil, which has become increasingly undesirable of late. China is also investing heavily in the coal-to-chemical sector, using coal as a feedstock for petrochemicals instead of oil or natural gas, which is carbon-intensive in the extreme.
Other countries are looking in the short run to increase coal output. While China has a largely domestic supply of coal, there are fewer bottlenecks for seaborne coal like the Strait of Hormuz for oil, as the former is available at scale from several countries (Indonesia, South Africa, Australia) that are not stuck behind a narrow and geopolitically volatile strait.
The other short-term lever some Asian countries can pull is nuclear power. Taiwan is looking to restart nuclear plants that it shut down last year, while several Southeast Asian countries had already made plans to build up their nuclear power resources. And earlier this week, Sri Lanka announced plans to rush forward a solar and batteries project and to look abroad for funding for a hydroelectricity project.
To the extent that any of these countries now experiencing energy hardship may be able to imitate the Chinese model, it will come at a substantial cost, not just in building up stockpiles that may go unused or infrastructure projects that are abandoned, but in closer links — and even dependency on outside sources for energy technology, cars, and critical minerals — on a rising regional hegemon instead of the vagaries of the world oil and gas market.
Countries may try to become more Chinese, but to China, they may just be customers.