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On the EV transition, natural gas prices, and reforestation

Current conditions: A sandstorm blanketed China’s Xinjiang region in a cloud of yellow dust • Perth, Australia, has seen seven February days with temperatures over 104 degrees Fahrenheit • At least three planes hit speeds of 800 mph thanks to a powerful jet stream over the Atlantic.
The Biden administration will scale back a proposal to set aggressive limits on vehicle tailpipe emissions, a move seen as a “concession to automakers and labor unions,” The New York Times reported over the weekend. Two sources confirmed the news to Reuters, as well. The Environmental Protection Agency’s original proposal, aimed at speeding the nation’s shift to zero-emissions electric vehicles, would have resulted in EVs making up 60% of new vehicle sales by 2030, rising to 67% by 2032. For context, EVs accounted for just 7.6% of new car sales last year. Carmakers and the United Auto Workers union called the proposal unreasonable, citing high EV prices and a lack of charging infrastructure. The new rules are expected to give manufacturers more time to ramp up EV sales. The move “could be worth it” if it boosts Biden’s re-election bid against Donald Trump, analysts told the Times. But some researchers warn it will lead to faster warming.
The West Coast isn’t getting much relief from the rain. Another atmospheric river is lashing California, following intense rain earlier this month that triggered flooding and landslides across cities including Los Angeles. Those regions are expected to see “much less rain” with this storm, which will continue through Wednesday, but some areas remain at risk of flooding and mudslides because they’re still saturated from the last soaker. Flood watches are in effect up and down the coastline, covering nearly 30 million people. The flood risk will be highest Tuesday morning, according to weather service meteorologist David Gomberg.
Natural gas prices in the U.S. are nearing their lowest levels in 30 years thanks to a lack of demand combined with soaring production, the Financial Times reported. The country is experiencing its warmest winter on record due to a combination of global warming and El Niño, so demand for the fuel to help heat homes is low. Meanwhile, gas production hit a record high in December. But some producers have signaled they plan to cut back on drilling programs.
Therapists are seeing more patients experiencing climate anxiety, and they’re grappling with the best ways to treat them, reported Bloomberg. Weather disasters and big climate conferences tend to be followed by an uptick in patients, and scientists studying the crisis are especially vulnerable. Most therapists aren’t making any diagnoses, because “anxiety about climate change isn’t a disorder.” Instead they’re looking for a new playbook for treating a rising existential threat. One interesting observation? It seems climate anxiety and climate denial can sometimes overlap: “The conspiracy theorists are reassuring,” psychotherapist Caroline Hickman said. “If you can’t tolerate anxiety, you will then spin off into believing somebody who gives you false promises.”
Research suggests that reforestation efforts in the southeastern United States have helped cool the region over the last century. “In addition to regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, forests modify surface and near-surface air temperatures,” the authors wrote. They estimate the annual cooling effect of forests to be between 1.8 degrees and 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. On sweltering summer days, the trees lower temperatures by up to 9 degrees Fahrenheit. “Moving forward, we need to think about tree planting not just as a way to absorb carbon dioxide but also the cooling effects in adapting for climate change, to help cities be resilient against these very hot temperatures,” Mallory Barnes, an environmental scientist at Indiana University, told The Guardian.
“[R]ather than echoing the concerns of a vocal minority that opposes any form of climate action, we need to effectively communicate that the vast majority of people around the world are willing to act against climate change and expect their national government to act.” –A team of researchers behind a recent study that found we may be vastly underestimating global support for climate action
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There is a heat wave in Europe, the world’s fastest warming continent. And so, as you may have heard, a perennial topic of online climate discourse has returned: Why don’t more Europeans have air conditioning?
I’m partially convinced this is psy op, or at least a figment of how social media organizes attention. I have a hypothesis that various “For You” page algorithms, especially that of the social network X, began to reward content that performed unusually well across national borders a few years ago. Since then, the amount of America vs. Europe content has surged. (Of course, writers have been comparing American and European lifestyles for much longer than that.)
Suffice it to say, though: It’s a fraught topic. I’ve assumed that as extreme heat gets worse as the climate changes, Europeans will simply get on with it and install AC, much as Americans in the Pacific Northwest have done. Yet there are cultural and regulatory obstacles to AC’s growth in Europe.
I’m sure I’ll write about it in the future, but for now I want to get a grip on the facts themselves. And so as a Friday special, I present to you — the facts about European AC, as I understand it:
Thanks so much for reading, and talk soon.
The movement against data centers is raising up a raison d'etre of the anti-renewables movement: protecting would-be farmland.
Farm owners and operators across the U.S. are winning national headlines almost every week for rejecting big dollar offers from data center developers. In Hanover County, Virginia, protestors are chanting “Grow Tomatoes, Not Data Centers.” In Pennsylvania and elsewhere, Republican legislators are mulling proposals to block the sale of so-called “prime farmland” for data center development. In Texas, the fight over data center development has engulfed the race for the state’s ag commissioner seat. In the Midwest, where agriculture reigns supreme, statewide races and congressional campaigns are slowly but surely being defined by the issue. Like in Nebraska where Austin Ahlman, an independent candidate running for Congress in Nebraska’s first district, told me he believes the data center backlash is reflective of a populist politics that broadly criticize elites and top-down control of the economy: “I think sometimes people misunderstand the anxieties of rural Americans when it comes to these data centers because a lot of their fears are about control long term.”
Unlike the farmland backlash around renewable energy development, the loudest critics are on the anti-monopolist left. On Wednesday, the prominent opposition group Food and Water Watch signaled farmland could soon be a watchword in the national data center debate – in a fashion analogous to what we’ve seen with renewable energy. The organization’s blog post entitled “The AI Data Center Boom Is Coming for Farmers” declared data centers verboten because of the threat they posed to “small and midsized family farmers.” Mitch Jones, deputy director of the campaign outfit, said he believes the threat to farmland is “a compelling reason to oppose data center development” but that his organization’s fight is primarily focused on protecting small business owners and an anti-monopoly sentiment.
“If data centers are coming into their areas, this puts even more pressure on them. It drives up the cost of their electricity, just as it does anyone else. It competes with them for water for crops, and it affects the value of their land in a perverse way,” Jones told me.
None of this should be surprising. An agricultural workforce has always been a good barometer for figuring out if a community will accept new infrastructure of any kind. We’ve seen as much time and time again with renewable energy, carbon capture, fossil energy and mining, just to name a few industries.
This same rule is true with data centers. In April, county commissioners in Kosciusko County, Indiana, unanimously rejected a Prologis data center; nearly 90% of acreage in Kosciusko County is being actively farmed, according to the Heatmap Pro database. Linn County, Iowa, in February enacted a rule severely restricting data center development in unincorporated areas; almost three-fourths of the land is used by the ag sector. A potential Amazon facility is causing heartburn in Clinton County, Ohio; nearly all land in the county is used for farming and utility-scale solar development has a recent history of conflict with landowners.
To be candid, I’m struck by the similarity in the backlash over siting data centers on farmland – a resemblance so close that some counties are starting to restrict renewable energy and data center development on farmland at the same time. This week, Eau Claire County, Wisconsin created a new “farmland preservation plan” discouraging utility-scale solar energy and data centers on any potential farmland. (More than 40% of land in this county is currently being used for farmland, according to Heatmap Pro.)
Jones at Food and Water Watch said his organization taking on the “protect farmland” mantle had nothing to do with the success this argument has had against renewable energy. “That thought never entered my head,” he told me, adding that if communities respond to the data center backlash by taking steps that short-circuit solar and wind too, that’s “a coincidence.”
I kept pressing. What if the pivot to farmland protection leads to more communities restricting renewable energy along with the data centers? “If you’re looking for a reason to oppose solar and wind, you can come up with that without having to attach data centers to it,” Jones said. “We’ve seen rural communities oppose solar and wind before data centers blew up across the country. It’s nothing new.”
And more of the week’s top news around project fights.
1. Virginia Beach, Virginia – The right-wing interest group lawsuit against Dominion Energy’s Coastal Virginia offshore wind is now dead, concluding one of the wackier tales of the Trump 2.0 energy era.
2. Box Elder County, Utah – Call it the Box Elder County massacre.
3. Davidson County, Tennessee – We have the latest updates in the Nashville Zoo data center drama and they’re a doozy and a half.
4. Clark County, Ohio – Yet another utility-scale solar farm is in the Ohio state permitting graveyard.