What Analysts Expect From Q1 EV Sales

Current conditions: The Ohio and Tennessee Valleys could experience long-track tornadoes today • Gale-force winds killed at least four people in China’s Jiangxi Province • A winter storm watch is in effect across New England.

THE TOP FIVE

1. It’s a big week for EV sales numbers

Major U.S. electric vehicle manufacturers including Tesla and Rivian are expected to report on their first-quarter sales and deliveries this week. Expectations for Tesla are pretty low, according to Bloomberg, with analysts forecasting global deliveries of about 449,080 vehicles, down 7%. “Some on Wall Street are even braced for Tesla’s first sales decline since the early days of the pandemic.” But hey, Tesla might win back its title of “biggest EV seller” after Chinese rival BYD reported a 43% drop in quarterly sales. Analysts expect Rivian to deliver 16,608 vehicles, up 18.9% over Q4 of 2023. Stellantis, Ford, Toyota, GM, and Honda will also release Q1 reports this week, so stay tuned.

2. Shell fights ‘mother of all climate cases’ in The Hague

Fossil fuel giant Shell is arguing in The Hague this week that a landmark emissions ruling was legally defunct. In 2021, a district court ruled in favor of environmental group Friends of the Earth Netherlands and ordered Shell to cut its greenhouse gas emissions (including scope 3 emissions) by 45% by 2030. “This was the mother of all climate cases against corporations” because it opened the door to copycat cases, Klaas Hendrik Eller, an assistant professor at the University of Amsterdam’s center for transformative private law, told the Financial Times. Shell is appealing, insisting the order lacks legal basis and that companies cannot be held responsible for their clients’ emissions. Friends of the Earth will argue that the scientific evidence shows burning fossil fuels is causing global warming and that “Shell has a responsibility to act in accordance with climate science and international climate agreements.” A ruling is expected in the second half of this year.

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3. Record number of fires recorded in Venezuela

More than 30,200 fires were detected in Venezuela between January and March, the highest number ever recorded for that three-month period. The region is suffering from intense drought driven by human-caused climate change and the El Niño weather pattern. Researchers are worried these fires are a sign of things to come. “Everything is indicating we’re going to see other events of catastrophic fires – megafires that are huge in size and height,” Manoela Machado, a fire researcher at University of Oxford, told Reuters. More than half of all the fires burning in the Amazon rainforest are located in Venezuela.

4. Human case of bird flu found in Texas

A case of avian flu has been detected in a human in Texas, marking the first such case since the virus was recently identified in cows across several states, and only the second case in U.S. history. The current outbreak of H5N1 has decimated bird populations across the world and also spread to mammals, including seals, mink, and now cows. Health experts worry the virus could mutate to become easily transmissible between humans, but so far there is no evidence of that happening. Still, “every single time is a little bit of Russian roulette,” said Ashish Jha, who led the Biden administration’s pandemic response. “You play that game long enough and one of these times it will become fit to spread among humans.” Researchers say climate change is altering birds’ breeding habits and migratory patterns in ways that leave them more vulnerable to bird flu.

5. In Europe, solar panels are the new garden fencing

The price of solar panels has dropped so significantly that some households in Europe are using them as fencing in their yards, the Financial Times reported. Skyrocketing production out of China means solar panels are cheap and getting cheaper. But at the same time, installation costs for rooftop solar remain high, prompting some DIY-minded homeowners to roll up their sleeves and install panels as fencing. The panels don’t get quite as much sun as they would on a rooftop, but they still work. No word on what the neighbors have to say about it. Peculiar garden aesthetics aside, the solar glut has “brought Europe's solar makers to their knees,” Politico reported recently. Manufacturers want the European Commission to step in and help them. In the U.S., the cost of a solar panel is now half of what it was last year, and falling.

THE KICKER

As of yesterday, anyone living in Colorado can get a $450 discount when buying an e-bike thanks to the nation’s first statewide e-bike tax credit.