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Electric Vehicles

What Analysts Expect From Q1 EV Sales

On carmakers’ quarterly reports, Shell’s climate case, and solar panel fences

What Analysts Expect From Q1 EV Sales
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: The Ohio and Tennessee Valleys could experience long-track tornadoes today • Gale-force winds killed at least four people in China’s Jiangxi Province • A winter storm watch is in effect across New England.

THE TOP FIVE

1. It’s a big week for EV sales numbers

Major U.S. electric vehicle manufacturers including Tesla and Rivian are expected to report on their first-quarter sales and deliveries this week. Expectations for Tesla are pretty low, according toBloomberg, with analysts forecasting global deliveries of about 449,080 vehicles, down 7%. “Some on Wall Street are even braced for Tesla’s first sales decline since the early days of the pandemic.” But hey, Tesla might win back its title of “biggest EV seller” after Chinese rival BYD reported a 43% drop in quarterly sales. Analysts expect Rivian to deliver 16,608 vehicles, up 18.9% over Q4 of 2023. Stellantis, Ford, Toyota, GM, and Honda will also release Q1 reports this week, so stay tuned.

2. Shell fights ‘mother of all climate cases’ in The Hague

Fossil fuel giant Shell is arguing in The Hague this week that a landmark emissions ruling was legally defunct. In 2021, a district court ruled in favor of environmental group Friends of the Earth Netherlands and ordered Shell to cut its greenhouse gas emissions (including scope 3 emissions) by 45% by 2030. “This was the mother of all climate cases against corporations” because it opened the door to copycat cases, Klaas Hendrik Eller, an assistant professor at the University of Amsterdam’s center for transformative private law, told the Financial Times. Shell is appealing, insisting the order lacks legal basis and that companies cannot be held responsible for their clients’ emissions. Friends of the Earth will argue that the scientific evidence shows burning fossil fuels is causing global warming and that “Shell has a responsibility to act in accordance with climate science and international climate agreements.” A ruling is expected in the second half of this year.

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  • 3. Record number of fires recorded in Venezuela

    More than 30,200 fires were detected in Venezuela between January and March, the highest number ever recorded for that three-month period. The region is suffering from intense drought driven by human-caused climate change and the El Niño weather pattern. Researchers are worried these fires are a sign of things to come. “Everything is indicating we’re going to see other events of catastrophic fires – megafires that are huge in size and height,” Manoela Machado, a fire researcher at University of Oxford, told Reuters. More than half of all the fires burning in the Amazon rainforest are located in Venezuela.

    4. Human case of bird flu found in Texas

    A case of avian flu has been detected in a human in Texas, marking the first such case since the virus was recently identified in cows across several states, and only the second case in U.S. history. The current outbreak of H5N1 has decimated bird populations across the world and also spread to mammals, including seals, mink, and now cows. Health experts worry the virus could mutate to become easily transmissible between humans, but so far there is no evidence of that happening. Still, “every single time is a little bit of Russian roulette,” said Ashish Jha, who led the Biden administration’s pandemic response. “You play that game long enough and one of these times it will become fit to spread among humans.” Researchers say climate change is altering birds’ breeding habits and migratory patterns in ways that leave them more vulnerable to bird flu.

    5. In Europe, solar panels are the new garden fencing

    The price of solar panels has dropped so significantly that some households in Europe are using them as fencing in their yards, the Financial Timesreported. Skyrocketing production out of China means solar panels are cheap and getting cheaper. But at the same time, installation costs for rooftop solar remain high, prompting some DIY-minded homeowners to roll up their sleeves and install panels as fencing. The panels don’t get quite as much sun as they would on a rooftop, but they still work. No word on what the neighbors have to say about it. Peculiar garden aesthetics aside, the solar glut has “brought Europe's solar makers to their knees,” Politicoreported recently. Manufacturers want the European Commission to step in and help them. In the U.S., the cost of a solar panel is now half of what it was last year, and falling.

    THE KICKER

    As of yesterday, anyone living in Colorado can get a $450 discount when buying an e-bike thanks to the nation’s first statewide e-bike tax credit.

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    Jessica  Hullinger profile image

    Jessica Hullinger

    Jessica Hullinger is a freelance writer and editor who likes to think deeply about climate science and sustainability. She previously served as Global Deputy Editor for The Week, and her writing has been featured in publications including Fast Company, Popular Science, and Fortune. Jessica is originally from Indiana but lives in London. Read More

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    AM Briefing: Blackouts on the Rise

    On blackouts, Big Oil, and crowdsourcing for weather disasters

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    Current conditions: Heavy rain in southern Brazil killed at least 10 people • Flood watches are in effect across North Texas • It will be 75 degrees Fahrenheit and sunny today in California’s Berryessa Snow Mountain National Monument, which has just been expanded by 13,700 acres.

    THE TOP FIVE

    1. One key moment from the Big Oil hearing

    Democratic lawmakers testified at a congressional hearing yesterday that Big Oil companies were guilty of decades of “denial, disinformation, and doublespeak” on climate change. The hearing followed the release of damning internal documents suggesting executives from major fossil fuel producers sought to “deceive the public about the enormous climate crisis we are in and the role that Big Oil has played in bringing it about,” said Jamie Raskin, the top Democrat on the House Oversight committee.

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    Sparks

    The Best Idea From Today’s Big Oil Hearing

    Stealing a page from the Big Tobacco playbook.

    The Capitol.
    Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

    It was always a fantasy to think that the Senate Committee on the Budget’s hearing on oil disinformation would actually be about oil disinformation. It was still shocking, though, how far off the rails things ran.

    The hearing concerned a report released Tuesday by the committee along with Democrats in the House documenting “the extensive efforts undertaken by fossil fuel companies to deceive the public and investors about their knowledge of the effects of their products on climate change and to undermine efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions.” This builds on the already extensive literature documenting the fossil fuel industry’s deliberate dissemination of lies about climate change and its role in causing it, including the 2010 book Merchants of Doubt and a 2015 Pulitzer Prize-nominated series from Inside Climate News on Exxon’s climate denial PR machine. But more, of course, is more.

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    Throwing carbon in the trash.
    Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

    Most climate solutions are getting smarter. Solar panels can track the sun. Electric vehicles are equipped with the equivalent of an iPad and may soon be able to drive themselves (according to some people). Startups are inventing stoves with batteries that charge when energy is cheap and heat pumps that learn how you use your home and adjust accordingly.

    But when it comes to permanently removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, the market is pushing in a different direction. There, it seems, there’s growing excitement for the dumbest, most primitive solutions companies can come up with.

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