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On car trends, Cali’s power outages, and Google’s emissions

Current conditions: Hurricane Beryl could bring up to 9 feet of storm surge to Jamaica • Northeastern India, already flooded, is expecting more rain • Last month beat June 2023 as the hottest June ever recorded.
Many automakers are reporting Q2 U.S. sales and deliveries this week. Let’s take a look at how the EV numbers are shaping up:
General Motors
Deliveries: 21,930 EVs, up 40% compared to Q2 last year, and up 34% compared to Q1. EV registrations are up 17% YTD, “outpacing the industry average of 10%.” Sales of its LYRIQ EV were up 26% on Q1.
Rivian
Deliveries: 13,790 EVs, in line with expectations. The company still expects to produce 57,000 vehicles this year.
Toyota (and Lexus)
Sales: 247,347 “electrified vehicles” (including hybrids). EV sales for the entire first half of the year were up 68% and accounted for 38% of total sales volume, “an all-time best-ever.”
Kia
Sales: 17,980 BEVs, up 131% year-over-year. In June, overall U.S. sales for the brand were down 6.5% YOY, but EV sales specifically were up 125%, according to calculations from Inside EVs.
Hyundai
Sales: 38,657 fully-electric vehicles (plus 26 hydrogen fuel cell SUVs, fwiw) in the U.S., up 15% compared to Q2 2023. IONIQ 5 sales were up 51%. KONA SUV sales were up 26%. Hybrid sales are up 42% for the quarter.
Tesla, for its part, reported 443,956 global EV deliveries, “a smaller-than-expected 5% drop,” but the brand is still losing its dominance.
The sales figures, while encouraging, don’t necessarily suggest EV growth will accelerate, analysts told Reuters. “We’re expecting this period of time to have bumps along the way for the next few years as the transition goes from early adopters to mainstream buyers and we’re going to see this happen for a long time,” said Sam Fiorani, vice president at research firm AutoForecast Solutions. “Some quarters will be up, some quarters will be down, but all in all, it won’t be as strong a growth as we saw over the last few years.”
Some Californians are experiencing power outages as an intense heat wave sends temperatures spiking across the state. Yesterday more than 11,000 Pacific Gas and Electric Co. customers in the Bay Area were without electricity. Some of the outages this week will be planned power shutoffs intended to prevent fires, but wasn’t one of them. The heat wave is expected to break records and last into next week. “High temperatures are forecast to reach into the 105-115F range throughout interior California away from the immediate coastline, as well as into much of the Desert Southwest,” the National Weather Service said. July marks the start of the “peak period” for power emissions in the U.S., which lasts through September. Power emissions for the first half of 2024 are already up 5.2% compared to the same period last year as residents turn up their air conditioning to battle early-season heat waves.
The Biden administration yesterday announced a new funding round of $504 million in grants to 12 “tech hubs,” some of which are focused on scaling up clean tech:
Google’s greenhouse gas emissions climbed by 13% last year compared to the year before, and were up 48% from 2019, the company reported. The company blames artificial intelligence for rising power demand. Back in 2021, the tech giant pledged to be net zero by 2030. Chief sustainability officer Kate Brandt now says that is an “extremely ambitious goal” that “is not going to be easy.” Microsoft’s emissions are also on the rise because of energy-intensive data centers, up 29% compared to 2020.
Global warming is speeding up glacial ice loss in a major Alaskan icefield, and could push the field over a tipping point sooner than previously expected, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Communications. The researchers found that the Juneau Icefield, which covers about 1,500 square miles, is melting twice as quickly as it was in 2010 and has lost a quarter of its ice volume since the 18th century. “The fate of Alaska’s ice matters tremendously for the world,” explained climate reporter Raymond Zhong at The New York Times. “In no other region of the planet are melting glaciers predicted to contribute more to global sea-level rise this century.” Current melting projections suggest ice loss for the Juneau Icefield will accelerate after 2070, but the researchers suggest this projection may be “too small and underestimate glacier melt in the future.”
NASA astronaut Matthew Dominick, currently on the International Space Station, captured the awesome and terrifying size of Hurricane Beryl. The bottom picture peers into the storm’s eye.


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According to a new analysis shared exclusively with Heatmap, coal’s equipment-related outage rate is about twice as high as wind’s.
The Trump administration wants “beautiful clean coal” to return to its place of pride on the electric grid because, it says, wind and solar are just too unreliable. “If we want to keep the lights on and prevent blackouts from happening, then we need to keep our coal plants running. Affordable, reliable and secure energy sources are common sense,” Chris Wright said on X in July, in what has become a steady drumbeat from the administration that has sought to subsidize coal and put a regulatory straitjacket around solar and (especially) wind.
This has meant real money spent in support of existing coal plants. The administration’s emergency order to keep Michigan’s J.H. Campbell coal plant open (“to secure grid reliability”), for example, has cost ratepayers served by Michigan utility Consumers Energy some $80 million all on its own.
But … how reliable is coal, actually? According to an analysis by the Environmental Defense Fund of data from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, a nonprofit that oversees reliability standards for the grid, coal has the highest “equipment-related outage rate” — essentially, the percentage of time a generator isn’t working because of some kind of mechanical or other issue related to its physical structure — among coal, hydropower, natural gas, nuclear, and wind. Coal’s outage rate was over 12%. Wind’s was about 6.6%.
“When EDF’s team isolated just equipment-related outages, wind energy proved far more reliable than coal, which had the highest outage rate of any source NERC tracks,” EDF told me in an emailed statement.
Coal’s reliability has, in fact, been decreasing, Oliver Chapman, a research analyst at EDF, told me.
NERC has attributed this falling reliability to the changing role of coal in the energy system. Reliability “negatively correlates most strongly to capacity factor,” or how often the plant is running compared to its peak capacity. The data also “aligns with industry statements indicating that reduced investment in maintenance and abnormal cycling that are being adopted primarily in response to rapid changes in the resource mix are negatively impacting baseload coal unit performance.” In other words, coal is struggling to keep up with its changing role in the energy system. That’s due not just to the growth of solar and wind energy, which are inherently (but predictably) variable, but also to natural gas’s increasing prominence on the grid.
“When coal plants are having to be a bit more varied in their generation, we're seeing that wear and tear of those plants is increasing,” Chapman said. “The assumption is that that's only going to go up in future years.”
The issue for any plan to revitalize the coal industry, Chapman told me, is that the forces driving coal into this secondary role — namely the economics of running aging plants compared to natural gas and renewables — do not seem likely to reverse themselves any time soon.
Coal has been “sort of continuously pushed a bit more to the sidelines by renewables and natural gas being cheaper sources for utilities to generate their power. This increased marginalization is going to continue to lead to greater wear and tear on these plants,” Chapman said.
But with electricity demand increasing across the country, coal is being forced into a role that it might not be able to easily — or affordably — play, all while leading to more emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, particulate matter, mercury, and, of course, carbon dioxide.
The coal system has been beset by a number of high-profile outages recently, including at the largest new coal plant in the country, Sandy Creek in Texas, which could be offline until early 2027, according to the Texas energy market ERCOT and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
In at least one case, coal’s reliability issues were cited as a reason to keep another coal generating unit open past its planned retirement date.
Last month, Colorado Representative Will Hurd wrote a letter to the Department of Energy asking for emergency action to keep Unit 2 of the Comanche coal plant in Pueblo, Colorado open past its scheduled retirement at the end of his year. Hurd cited “mechanical and regulatory constraints” for the larger Unit 3 as a justification for keeping Unit 2 open, to fill in the generation gap left by the larger unit. In a filing by Xcel and several Colorado state energy officials also requesting delaying the retirement of Unit 2, they disclosed that the larger Unit 3 “experienced an unplanned outage and is offline through at least June 2026.”
Reliability issues aside, high electricity demand may turn into short-term profits at all levels of the coal industry, from the miners to the power plants.
At the same time the Trump administration is pushing coal plants to stay open past their scheduled retirement, the Energy Information Administration is forecasting that natural gas prices will continue to rise, which could lead to increased use of coal for electricity generation. The EIA forecasts that the 2025 average price of natural gas for power plants will rise 37% from 2024 levels.
Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights project “a continued rebound in thermal coal consumption throughout 2026 as thermal coal prices remain competitive with short-term natural gas prices encouraging gas-to-coal switching,” S&P coal analyst Wendy Schallom told me in an email.
“Stronger power demand, rising natural gas prices, delayed coal retirements, stockpiles trending lower, and strong thermal coal exports are vital to U.S. coal revival in 2025 and 2026.”
And we’re all going to be paying the price.
Rural Marylanders have asked for the president’s help to oppose the data center-related development — but so far they haven’t gotten it.
A transmission line in Maryland is pitting rural conservatives against Big Tech in a way that highlights the growing political sensitivities of the data center backlash. Opponents of the project want President Trump to intervene, but they’re worried he’ll ignore them — or even side with the data center developers.
The Piedmont Reliability Project would connect the Peach Bottom nuclear plant in southern Pennsylvania to electricity customers in northern Virginia, i.e.data centers, most likely. To get from A to B, the power line would have to criss-cross agricultural lands between Baltimore, Maryland and the Washington D.C. area.
As we chronicle time and time again in The Fight, residents in farming communities are fighting back aggressively – protesting, petitioning, suing and yelling loudly. Things have gotten so tense that some are refusing to let representatives for Piedmont’s developer, PSEG, onto their properties, and a court battle is currently underway over giving the company federal marshal protection amid threats from landowners.
Exacerbating the situation is a quirk we don’t often deal with in The Fight. Unlike energy generation projects, which are usually subject to local review, transmission sits entirely under the purview of Maryland’s Public Service Commission, a five-member board consisting entirely of Democrats appointed by current Governor Wes Moore – a rumored candidate for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. It’s going to be months before the PSC formally considers the Piedmont project, and it likely won’t issue a decision until 2027 – a date convenient for Moore, as it’s right after he’s up for re-election. Moore last month expressed “concerns” about the project’s development process, but has brushed aside calls to take a personal position on whether it should ultimately be built.
Enter a potential Trump card that could force Moore’s hand. In early October, commissioners and state legislators representing Carroll County – one of the farm-heavy counties in Piedmont’s path – sent Trump a letter requesting that he intervene in the case before the commission. The letter followed previous examples of Trump coming in to kill planned projects, including the Grain Belt Express transmission line and a Tennessee Valley Authority gas plant in Tennessee that was relocated after lobbying from a country rock musician.
One of the letter’s lead signatories was Kenneth Kiler, president of the Carroll County Board of Commissioners, who told me this lobbying effort will soon expand beyond Trump to the Agriculture and Energy Departments. He’s hoping regulators weigh in before PJM, the regional grid operator overseeing Mid-Atlantic states. “We’re hoping they go to PJM and say, ‘You’re supposed to be managing the grid, and if you were properly managing the grid you wouldn’t need to build a transmission line through a state you’re not giving power to.’”
Part of the reason why these efforts are expanding, though, is that it’s been more than a month since they sent their letter, and they’ve heard nothing but radio silence from the White House.
“My worry is that I think President Trump likes and sees the need for data centers. They take a lot of water and a lot of electric [power],” Kiler, a Republican, told me in an interview. “He’s conservative, he values property rights, but I’m not sure that he’s not wanting data centers so badly that he feels this request is justified.”
Kiler told me the plan to kill the transmission line centers hinges on delaying development long enough that interest rates, inflation and rising demand for electricity make it too painful and inconvenient to build it through his resentful community. It’s easy to believe the federal government flexing its muscle here would help with that, either by drawing out the decision-making or employing some other as yet unforeseen stall tactic. “That’s why we’re doing this second letter to the Secretary of Agriculture and Secretary of Energy asking them for help. I think they may be more sympathetic than the president,” Kiler said.
At the moment, Kiler thinks the odds of Piedmont’s construction come down to a coin flip – 50-50. “They’re running straight through us for data centers. We want this project stopped, and we’ll fight as well as we can, but it just seems like ultimately they’re going to do it,” he confessed to me.
Thus is the predicament of the rural Marylander. On the one hand, Kiler’s situation represents a great opportunity for a GOP president to come in and stand with his base against a would-be presidential candidate. On the other, data center development and artificial intelligence represent one of the president’s few economic bright spots, and he has dedicated copious policy attention to expanding growth in this precise avenue of the tech sector. It’s hard to imagine something less “energy dominance” than killing a transmission line.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
Plus more of the week’s most important fights around renewable energy.
1. Wayne County, Nebraska – The Trump administration fined Orsted during the government shutdown for allegedly killing bald eagles at two of its wind projects, the first indications of financial penalties for energy companies under Trump’s wind industry crackdown.
2. Ocean County, New Jersey – Speaking of wind, I broke news earlier this week that one of the nation’s largest renewable energy projects is now deceased: the Leading Light offshore wind project.
3. Dane County, Wisconsin – The fight over a ginormous data center development out here is turning into perhaps one of the nation’s most important local conflicts over AI and land use.
4. Hardeman County, Texas – It’s not all bad news today for renewable energy – because it never really is.