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Lifestyle

Nowhere is ‘Climate Proof’

It’s time to put the idea of climate safe havens to rest.

A woman looking at smoke.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

When I stepped into the yellow-ish gray haze of New York City on Tuesday night, the air tasted of soot. My eyes stung and watered, inducing a headache. Even if you’ve felt it before, the visceral experience of wildfire smoke is a shock to the system. My mind went into flight mode. Do we need to get out of here? I thought. Like, right now, but also ... more permanently?

It’s not that I think of New York City as a climate safe haven. Increasingly crushing heat and humidity has repeatedly sent me into a panic. In the fall we play Russian Roulette with hurricanes. Scientists recently estimated that $8.1 billion in damages caused by 2012’s Hurricane Sandy were attributable to climate change-driven sea-level rise.

But despite the fact that this isn’t even the East Coast’s first experience with wildfire smoke, I doubt anyone here was expecting to be subjected to amber skies or spend hours tracking down an emergency air purifier. I may not be the only one contemplating an exit.

So where to go?

There’s now a whole genre of studies and articles designating certain cities or regions climate havens. In 2019, then-Harvard professor Jesse Keenan famously pronounced Duluth, Minnesota, “climate-proof,” for its cool temperatures and proximity to fresh water. Word spread, and Californians fleeing wildfires soon arrived. The mayor of Buffalo, New York, has deemed his city a “climate refuge” for similar reasons. Scientists have also nodded at places like Vermont and Portland, Oregon.

At the same time, many of these forecasters readily admit that no place is immune from the effects of climate change. It’s more about picking your poison. Duluth may not be at great risk of dangerous heat waves, but it is already seeing more frequent, intense storms. The city sits on the western tip of Lake Superior, which is one of the fastest-warming lakes in the world. The shoreline is eroding from floods, eating away at properties and tourist destinations.

The unprecedented heatwave in the Pacific Northwest in 2021 that melted power lines, caused roads to buckle, and killed hundreds of people shattered any illusion of the region as a climate paradise — even taking scientists by surprise. There was a similar reaction when a heat wave smashed records in the typically water-logged U.K. last year.

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  • The current wildfires in Quebec are also upending these narratives. Buffalo might not see a wildfire any time soon, but as I write this, the city’s AQI is nearly at an “unhealthy” 200, according to AirNow, the U.S. air quality index. Burlington, Vermont, is looking better, but saw a spike up to 135 last night, which is considered “unhealthy for sensitive groups.”

    Marshall Burke, a Stanford climate economist, told my colleague Robinson Meyer that he’s reconsidering his usual pitch about the effects of global warming. In the past, he said, he’s posited that wildfire smoke, rather than extreme heat, will be the main way that people on the West Coast encounter climate change. “I would not have told that story for you guys on the East Coast,” he said. “And this is still one very historic event, so I’m not ready to tell that story, but I’m going to draw the boundary a little wider next time I give a talk on this.”

    We don’t yet know the degree to which the wildfires raging in Canada right now are connected to anthropogenic climate change. In the West, it’s well established that the increased severity of fires is being driven, in part, by climate change-fueled drought and aridification. That could be playing a role in the current fires burning in Western Canada.

    But the causes of wildfire are complex. Quebec, where many of the fires affecting the northeast are currently raging, is not in drought. It has had a particularly warm spring, though that could be due to natural variability rather than climate change. Ellen Whitman, a research scientist with the Canadian Forest Service, told Reuters that downed trees from a recent hurricane and a pest outbreak may have also fueled the fires.

    One reason the fires have gotten so bad is clear: The country’s resources are stretched thin. There are more than 400 active fires across Canada right now. A record amount of land has burned, and it’s not even summer yet. A CBC segment titled “What's behind Quebec's 'unprecedented' forest fire season?” reported that the province’s fire fighting agency has been forced “to leave most of them to burn out of control.”

    I don’t know whether this week’s smoky skies could become a “new normal” in places like New York City. But that flight response is probably only going to become a more familiar feeling, perhaps one you'll need to learn to sit with, no matter where you are.

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    Bruce Westerman, the Capitol, a data center, and power lines.
    Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

    After many months of will-they-won’t-they, it seems that the dream (or nightmare, to some) of getting a permitting reform bill through Congress is squarely back on the table.

    “Permitting reform” has become a catch-all term for various ways of taking a machete to the thicket of bureaucracy bogging down infrastructure projects. Comprehensive permitting reform has been tried before but never quite succeeded. Now, a bipartisan group of lawmakers in the House are taking another stab at it with the SPEED Act, which passed the House Natural Resources Committee the week before Thanksgiving. The bill attempts to untangle just one portion of the permitting process — the National Environmental Policy Act, or NEPA.

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    Hotspots

    GOP Lawmaker Asks FAA to Rescind Wind Farm Approval

    And more on the week’s biggest fights around renewable energy.

    The United States.
    Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

    1. Benton County, Washington – The Horse Heaven wind farm in Washington State could become the next Lava Ridge — if the Federal Aviation Administration wants to take up the cause.

    • On Monday, Dan Newhouse, Republican congressman of Washington, sent a letter to the FAA asking them to review previous approvals for Horse Heaven, claiming that the project’s development would significantly impede upon air traffic into the third largest airport in the state, which he said is located ten miles from the project site. To make this claim Newhouse relied entirely on the height of the turbines. He did not reference any specific study finding issues.
    • There’s a wee bit of irony here: Horse Heaven – a project proposed by Scout Clean Energy – first set up an agreement to avoid air navigation issues under the first Trump administration. Nevertheless, Newhouse asked the agency to revisit the determination. “There remains a great deal of concern about its impact on safe and reliable air operations,” he wrote. “I believe a rigorous re-examination of the prior determination of no hazard is essential to properly and accurately assess this project’s impact on the community.”
    • The “concern” Newhouse is referencing: a letter sent from residents in his district in eastern Washington whose fight against Horse Heaven I previously chronicled a full year ago for The Fight. In a letter to the FAA in September, which Newhouse endorsed, these residents wrote there were flaws under the first agreement for Horse Heaven that failed to take into account the full height of the turbines.
    • I was first to chronicle the risk of the FAA grounding wind project development at the beginning of the Trump administration. If this cause is taken up by the agency I do believe it will send chills down the spines of other project developers because, up until now, the agency has not been weaponized against the wind industry like the Interior Department or other vectors of the Transportation Department (the FAA is under their purview).
    • When asked for comment, FAA spokesman Steven Kulm told me: “We will respond to the Congressman directly.” Kulm did not respond to an additional request for comment on whether the agency agreed with the claims about Horse Heaven impacting air traffic.

    2. Dukes County, Massachusetts – The Trump administration signaled this week it will rescind the approvals for the New England 1 offshore wind project.

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    Q&A

    How Rep. Sean Casten Is Thinking of Permitting Reform

    A conversation with the co-chair of the House Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition

    Rep. Sean Casten.
    Heatmap Illustration

    This week’s conversation is with Rep. Sean Casten, co-chair of the House Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition – a group of climate hawkish Democratic lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives. Casten and another lawmaker, Rep. Mike Levin, recently released the coalition’s priority permitting reform package known as the Cheap Energy Act, which stands in stark contrast to many of the permitting ideas gaining Republican support in Congress today. I reached out to talk about the state of play on permitting, where renewables projects fit on Democrats’ priority list in bipartisan talks, and whether lawmakers will ever address the major barrier we talk about every week here in The Fight: local control. Our chat wound up immensely informative and this is maybe my favorite Q&A I’ve had the liberty to write so far in this newsletter’s history.

    The following conversation was lightly edited for clarity.

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