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Climate

The LNG Lawsuit Everyone Saw Coming

On Biden’s big legal challenge, the Ukraine war, and sea levels

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Briefing image.
The WMO Just Issued a Climate ‘Red Alert’
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Current conditions: The air quality in Birmingham, Alabama, is “moderate” due to smoke from planned fires • Tourists in drought-stricken Barcelona are being asked to conserve water • It’s 103 degrees Fahrenheit in South Sudan. Tomorrow will be even hotter.

THE TOP FIVE

1. 16 states sue Biden administration over LNG pause

Sixteen Republican-led states are suing the Biden administration over its pause on approvals for new liquified natural gas export terminals. The White House announced the pause in January, saying it wanted the Energy Department to first study the effect LNG projects have on the climate. The lawsuit claims this move was illegal and that there should have been a regulatory process giving key stakeholders a voice in the final decision. The U.S. is the biggest exporter of LNG in the world. Gas is “cleaner” to burn than coal, but the emissions footprint of transporting LNG is potentially massive, which is why climate activists celebrated the pause. But the decision was slammed by the fossil fuel industry and some advocates who say gas is “crucial for discouraging coal use in developing nations,” Bloomberg explained, adding: “The White House’s move struck at the heart of the debate over the future of energy.”

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2. White House tells Ukraine to stop targeting Russian oil refineries

Washington has told Ukraine to stop targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure because its attacks could cause global oil prices to rise and push the Kremlin to retaliate, the Financial Times reported. A military intelligence official told the paper that there have been at least 12 attacks on Russian oil refineries since 2022, nine of which occurred this year. There have also been attacks on terminals and storage infrastructure. “Russia remains one of the world’s most important energy exporters despite western sanctions on its oil and gas sector,” the FT said. Gas prices have risen almost 15% already this year, putting pressure on President Biden leading into the November election.

3. NASA: Sea levels saw ‘relatively large jump’ last year

The global average sea level rose by about 0.3 inches between 2022 and 2023, according to NASA. This is a “relatively large jump,” the agency said, driven by climate change and El Niño. Since 1993, the global average sea level has risen by 4 inches and the rate of rise is accelerating. In 1993, sea levels rose by about .07 inches per year.

NASA

“Current rates of acceleration mean that we are on track to add another 20 centimeters [nearly 8 inches] of global mean sea level by 2050, doubling the amount of change in the next three decades compared to the previous 100 years and increasing the frequency and impacts of floods across the world,” said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, director for the NASA sea level change team and the ocean physics program in Washington.

4. Countries pledge to double down on nuclear energy expansion

A group of 35 countries have pledged to “work to fully unlock the potential of nuclear energy” in the quest for energy security and emissions reductions. The relatively vague commitment, cosigned by the U.S., China, Britain, and Saudi Arabia, emerged from the first-ever Nuclear Energy Summit in Brussels yesterday. It says countries will help extend the lives of existing nuclear reactors, construct new ones, and support deployment of advanced reactors. “Generating electricity using nuclear fission remains a divisive issue that cuts across partisan lines,” wrote Nicole Pollack at Heatmap. Some environmental groups see the risk of nuclear disasters as too high, while others see it as a reliable low-carbon energy resource that’s available to us right now. “Without the support of nuclear power, we have no chance to reach our climate targets on time,” said International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol.

5. Biden administration to award $6.3 billion for projects to decarbonize heavy industries

In the coming days, the Biden administration is expected to announce which projects will receive a cut of some $6.3 billion in funding to help decarbonize the U.S. industrial sector, Bloomberg reported. Heavy industry contributes nearly one third of the nation’s primary energy-related carbon dioxide, according to the Department of Energy, so slashing emissions here without hurting the economy is a priority. The Industrial Demonstrations Program aims to kickstart the process by focusing on the big emitters, like iron, steel, cement and concrete, chemicals, food and drink, aluminum, and paper products. “We hear every day about industrial companies that are interested in decarbonizing their plants, but the initial costs can be daunting,” Nora Esram, a senior director for research with the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy nonprofit, told Bloomberg. “The federal funds are geared to enable them to invest in new technologies to cut emissions while supporting community development.” The announcement could come as soon as Monday.

THE KICKER

New York’s JFK airport is getting a large EV charging station that will be open to the public 24/7.

Yellow

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AM Briefing

Pump and Trump

On OpenAI’s pledge, power plant emissions, and Kazakh tungsten

A gas station.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: The polar vortex that keeps air circulating around the North Pole collapsed months ahead of schedule, threatening to send frigid temperatures southward • India’s east coast Andhra Pradesh state is facing down yet another major storm as Severe Cyclone Murasu makes landfall • The catastrophic atmospheric river over the American Southwest has dumped more than 20 trillion gallons of water across Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah.


THE TOP FIVE

1. Gas prices hit a record high on the eve of America’s midterm elections

The average price of a gallon of gasoline during President Donald Trump’s second term topped $3.46 as of Monday, a record that exceeds the previous high set under the Biden administration. That’s according to a new analysis by the Financial Times. And that’s just the average across the past 22 months. The average price nationwide on November 2 clocked in at just under $4.17 per gallon. “If modern living boiled down to a price, it’s the price at the pump,” Bob McNally, a former energy advisor to the George W Bush administration and president of consultancy Rapidan Energy, told the newspaper. “Whether a voter is filling up that day or not, it’s likely that they see a pump price.”

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Red
Daily Briefing

Think Congress Is Slow? Meet the Power Sector.

BAAJA would likely help speed up the U.S. transmission buildout, but there’s a chance we’re undercounting the benefits.

Power lines.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

This is Heatmap Daily, a weekday digest written by our executive editor. Subscribe here.

As you may have seen, my colleague Emily Pontecorvo and I got the first look at the Rhodium Group’s analysis of what the bipartisan permitting bill will do to emissions.

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Blue
AM Briefing

Neutral, at Worst

On Chinese hydrogen, Fermi upheaval, and British offshore wind

Smokestacks.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: The Pineapple Express, an atmospheric river originating in the Pacific near Hawaii, is arriving in the Southwest laden with heavy rain that’s set to flood the region • Indonesia has the worst air quality in the world as forest fires rage along Sumatra’s southern coast • A cross-country storm will soak much of the United States on Tuesday’s Election Day.


THE TOP FIVE

1. Permitting bill’s worst-case climate scenario is still carbon neutral

The Senate’s grand compromise to simplify federal permitting on energy projects would likely drop emissions slightly as the benefits to accelerating deployments of clean energy infrastructure outweigh the boost the legislation could give to fossil fuels. Even under the worst-case scenario, emissions remain on the same trajectory as today. That’s according to a hotly anticipated new analysis by the Rhodium Group, the consultancy whose U.S. emissions estimates are among the most widely cited in American politics. The report, shared first with my colleague Emily Pontecorvo, found that provisions in the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act largely counteract each other on climate. The bill makes building transmission lines much easier, a key step to patching more renewables onto the grid. But it also makes new gas pipelines simpler to permit, clearing the way for a buildout of the infrastructure for the fossil fuel already dominating U.S. electricity and heating systems. Still, under the best-case scenario, the legislation could cut U.S. economy-wide emissions by 5% below where they would otherwise go in 2040. The bill could also slash energy bills by $78 per year and support construction of more than 200 gigawatts of clean energy capacity, as compared to a world where it didn’t pass. The Rhodium report is at least the second analysis yet to find that the bill could modestly lower emissions. The first, as I reported last week, came from the think tank Resources for the Future, which saw a slight drop in power-sector emissions relative to a world without BAAJA.

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Blue