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On the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, Canada’s new prime minister, and CERAWeek

Current conditions: Firefighters successfully controlled brush fires in Long Island that prompted New York Gov. Kathy Hochul to declare a state of emergency • Brisbane, Australia, recorded its wettest day in more than 50 years • Forecasters are keeping an eye on a storm system developing across the central U.S. that could pack a serious punch this week.
The nonprofit Climate United filed a lawsuit over the weekend against the Environmental Protection Agency and Citibank for withholding $7 billion in climate funds awarded as part of the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act. The move escalates a dispute over some $20 billion in grants from the IRA’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, which was designed to help mobilize private capital toward clean energy and climate solutions. President Trump’s EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin has been on a mission to claw back the funds, claiming their distribution was rushed and mismanaged. In its lawsuit, Climate United says it has been unable to access the $7 billion it was awarded, and that the EPA and Citibank have given no explanation for this. It wants a judge to order that the money be released. “We’re not trying to make a political statement here,” Beth Bafford, chief executive of Climate United, told The New York Times. “This is about math for homeowners, for truck drivers, for public schools — we know that accessing clean energy saves them money that they can use on far more important things.” The Trump administration has reportedly demanded that the eight organizations tapped to receive the money turn over records to the FBI and appear in federal court later this month.
Canada’s Liberal Party has elected Mark Carney, a net-zero finance advocate, to succeed Justin Trudeau as prime minister. Carney is not a career politician. Instead, he comes from the financial world, having overseen both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, and is an evangelist for green investment and a net-zero financial sector. He was the UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance in 2019, and “has made clean energy, climate policies and economic prosperity for Canada some of the central facets of his campaign,” CNN reported. If he wins the upcoming general election, Carney will be tasked with navigating President Trump’s tariffs and making key decisions about the future of Canada’s vast natural resources, including fossil fuels and rare minerals.
The U.S. has withdrawn from yet another global climate initiative, this one aimed at helping developing nations recover from natural disasters. The United Nations loss and damage fund was one of the biggest wins to come out of COP28 in 2023, with nearly 200 countries signing on in support. It’s expected to start funding projects this year. About $740 million has been pledged so far, and the U.S. has said it will give about $17.5 million, though it’s unclear if that money will actually be handed over now. “This decision, made by the nation with the largest historical responsibility for climate change, jeopardises vital support for vulnerable countries facing irreversible climate impacts,” said Ali Mohamed, the chair of the African Group of Negotiators.
The energy industry descends on Houston, Texas, this week, for the annual CERAWeek conference. This year’s event, titled “Moving Ahead: Energy Strategies for a Complex World,” will focus on the changing global energy landscape. Key themes include shifting regulations, the turbulent oil and gas market, electrification and power demand, the rise of AI, managing emissions, and the policy outlook for renewables. According to Reuters energy columnist Ron Bousso, fossil fuel executives are going into the conference with a case of “Trump buyer’s remorse” as new tariffs and geopolitical policies from the Trump administration have “created turmoil in financial markets and clouded the outlook for the global economy and energy prices.”
Argentina will observe three days of national mourning after 16 people were killed in flash flooding over the weekend triggered by unprecedented rainfall. Nearly a year’s worth of rain – about 16 inches – fell in just eight hours in the port city of Bahia Blanca in the Buenos Aires province. Many people are still missing. Environment official Andrea Dufourg said the event was a clear example of climate change. “Unfortunately this will continue to take place,” Dufourg said. “We have no other option than to prepare cities, educate citizens, and establish effective early warning systems.”
Twenty-one House Republicans have signed a letter urging the GOP to uphold the Inflation Reduction Act’s clean energy tax credits in their budget bill, warning that gutting the credits would “risk sparking an energy crisis in our country, resulting in drastically higher power bills for American families.” That’s three more than signed a similar letter during the last Congress.
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France’s deadliest heat wave since 2003 killed more than 2,700 people — and possibly as many as 5,700.
More than 5,700 excess deaths were recorded in France during this summer’s record-breaking heat wave, the country’s health agency announced today. That makes the event — which ran, by the official reckoning, from June 17 to July 2 — the country’s deadliest heat wave in more than 20 years.
That’s in line with other estimates we’ve heard. EuroMOMO, a network of European public health agencies that track excess mortality, found that the continent saw more than 10,000 excess deaths during the same period. Roughly 90% of those victims were older than 65, it said. (France’s cohort seems similar: Adults older than 75 made up about two-thirds of the victims, the government said.)
These numbers are staggering — and much larger than some astute Heatmap readers might anticipate. If you read my colleague Jeva Lange’s piece on why it’s so hard to estimate heat deaths last week, she cited a much smaller estimate: Roughly 2,700 died in France during the most recent heat wave. That tally came from Christopher Callahan, an Indiana University scientist who studies climate change’s economic and social costs.
Why is there such a gap between the figures? I emailed Callahan to find out. He shared a few thoughts. First, he uses a different (and theoretically more rigorous) method than the French government: “Our approach uses a statistical relationship between temperature and mortality to explicitly quantify how many additional deaths are associated with a given day’s temperature,” he wrote. “France’s report of excess deaths is just based on how many more people died in late June compared to previous Junes - but we don’t know if those people died because of the heat or some other factor.” (Carbon Brief recently published a Q&A on these varying approaches.)
That might mean his estimate is right, in which case France has misidentified roughly nearly 3,000 deaths. But it could also mean his model, which is trained on data from 2004 to 2019, is “missing something,” he said, like a post-Covid change to public health risk. Last year, Callahan and his colleagues used a similar model to estimate deaths from France’s worst-ever heatwave, a 2003 episode that overwhelmed morgues and killed about 16,000 people. Even 23 years ago, global warming helped make that disaster larger than it needed to be: Some 6,000 of those deaths were due to climate change, their paper found.
Either estimate of the 2026 heat wave, of course, is shattering. As Jeva wrote, even the lower figure would mean the 2026 heat wave killed as many people as died in three years of French homicides. But the divergence in estimates tells us something else too: Even as climate change breaks records and alters our world, we’re never going to quite agree on where it ends and normal randomness begins.
The AI data center boom does not seem close to ending. Google’s parent company, Alphabet, announced its second quarter results this evening, and it beat Wall Street’s expectations, nearly quadrupling its profit on a year-over-year basis. Among the drivers: Its cloud business grew 82% compared to the same quarter last year. (As I’ve written, that rapid growth is helping to turn Alphabet and other hyperscalers into light industrial firms.)
The company’s AI bets seem to be paying off so far — so Google is now planning on spending even more on data centers, energy infrastructure and AI development this year than it once anticipated. It raised its estimates of 2026 capital expenditure to $195 billion to $205 billion, which is above earlier projections and twice as much as it spent in the same category last year. 2027 could be even bigger, it signaled. The company’s shares fell slightly on the news in after-hours trading, but from an energy and climate wonk perspective, the message is clear: For now, the AI demand surge transforming the power sector — and the real economy — continues to chug along.