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Current conditions: Minneapolis is expecting snow tonight. Less than a month ago it was 65 degrees Fahrenheit in the Twin Cities • More than 100 people were evacuated from the small Australian town of Borroloola ahead of severe flooding • It is cloudy in Copenhagen where global climate leaders are meeting to hash out a plan for COP29.
The Biden administration announced final new emissions standards for cars yesterday, significantly curtailing both the carbon dioxide and the toxic soot and chemicals that spew from the tailpipes of the nation’s light- and medium-duty vehicles. The rules tighten pollution limits gradually over six years, and are slightly watered down compared to the version released last April: While automakers will still have to achieve the same emissions standard by 2032 as what was originally proposed, they will now be able to transition more slowly, explained Emily Pontecorvo and Robinson Meyer at Heatmap. Administration officials argue that giving automakers, dealers, and labor unions more time in the near-term will make for a sturdier rule, and that the cumulative emissions benefits of the final standard converge with the original proposal. The EPA now estimates that EVs may make up anywhere between 30% and 56% of new light-duty sales from model years 2030 to 2032, and by 2032, the light-duty fleet on offer from automakers will emit half as much carbon as vehicles on the market in 2026.
A group of senior Republican lawmakers penned a letter to Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, accusing the group of “undermining energy security” and being a cheerleader for the “energy transition” (quotes theirs). The letter suggests the IEA has lost its credibility as a reliable and objective source of information on fossil fuel markets, and has focused too heavily on clean energy developments and too little on “the things that matter most to policymakers.” The letter is signed by House energy committee chair Cathy McMorris-Rodgers and Sen. John Barrasso, the top Republican on the Senate energy panel, among others.
As Axios noted, the attack “has real-world stakes. The agency's work is constantly cited by policymakers, academics, journalists and civil society groups.” The IEA’s forecasts that oil demand could peak by 2030 have perturbed fossil fuel producers. OPEC sees growth continuing at least through 2045. Earlier this week the CEO of Saudi Aramco called a fossil fuel phase-out a “fantasy.”
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The names Otis and Dora have been retired from the list of potential hurricane names because of their links to devastating extreme weather events. The World Meteorological Organization has six lists of names for northeast Pacific hurricanes that it uses over and over again, so it’s not uncommon for two different storms occurring years apart to have the same name. But a name is removed if a storm is “so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for obvious reasons of sensitivity.” Hurricane Otis struck Acapulco in October last year, killing 51 people and causing $3 billion in damage. Dora played an “indirect meteorological role” in Maui’s massive wildfires, which killed more than 100 people and caused at least $4 billion in damages. Otis and Dora will be replaced with the names Otilio and Debora. Climate change is warming the oceans, resulting in stronger hurricanes.
The smell of smoke lingered over Washington, D.C., yesterday, and the air quality dropped as haze from brush fires burning in Virginia and Maryland drifted over the region. Strong winds and dry weather made for ideal fire conditions, and the National Weather Service issued a red flag warning for the area in the evening. This photo, apparently taken in the Bergton area of Virgina, shows thick smoke coming from the fires:
The Biden administration wants to hold another offshore wind auction in the Gulf of Mexico as it pushes ahead with its goal of installing 30 gigawatts of offshore wind power by the end of the decade. Yesterday the Interior Department proposed the sale – which would be the second auction in the region – for sometime this year, though the date hasn’t been nailed down. More than 400,000 acres would be up for grabs for development, paving the way for enough wind energy to power 1.2 million homes. The first sale, held last year, resulted in just one lease, “underscoring the middling interest in building wind farms in the region, where wind gusts aren’t very powerful and electricity is already cheap from prolific oil and gas production,” as E&E News explained. The administration plans to hold four sales in the Gulf this year.
“While changes in governments may well affect the pace of energy transitions — accelerating them in some cases, slowing them in others — they won’t alter the fundamental direction of travel.” –IEA executive director Fatih Birol writing in the Financial Times
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The data center boom is everywhere you look in U.S. economic and emissions data.
This is an edition of Heatmap Daily, an evening review of the day’s news written by our executive editor. Sign up for it here.
It isn’t exactly a new thought, but I’ve been struck recently by how many trends in America’s economic and environmental data are fundamentally about the data center boom and the return of electricity demand:
First, the Energy Information Administration reported this week that U.S. emissions grew by more than 2% last year, driven by surging electricity demand and an increase in coal-fired generation.What caused that higher power demand? New factories and data centers — as well as record summertime cooling demand.
Second, many of the new factories driving that higher power demand are themselves producing goods that are … let’s say … data center-adjacent. There are the enormous new semiconductor fabs, of course. But Ford and General Motors have also set up new production lines (or repurposed old ones) to manufacture grid-scale batteries to meet power demand.
Third, take a look at the recent U.S. spending on private non-residential construction — in other words, everything American companies are building that is not houses, condos, or apartments.
The construction industry’s spent almost $60 billion on data centers over the past year, which is more than it spent on all other office buildings combined (and more than it spent building warehouses, too). Just a handful of categories — data centers, power plants, electricity infrastructure, and certain kinds of electronics manufacturing — now make up a third of all U.S. private non-residential construction investment. They’ve never made up such a large share of construction spending since data collection began in 2014.
As The New York Times recently noted, the American economy is unusually dependent on the American stock market right now — and the stock market is unusually dependent on artificial intelligence. This week, investors started to balk at the enormous spending hyperscalers are planning to keep building out the AI boom; Alphabet’s shares dropped 8% this week after it boosted its planned 2026 capital expenditure and signaled 2027 will be even bigger. If the data center boom started to slow down in earnest, then more than just that budget will change.
Speaking of which, my colleague Emily Pontecorvo wrote earlier this week about how many businesses are struggling to even estimate their carbon emissions from artificial intelligence. The carbon accounting startup Watershed recently unveiled a new formula to help companies get a sense of their AI-related emissions.
But even that formula is still limited by the amount of data hyperscalers publish — and they don’t publish that much. Google, for instance, is the only AI company that has (laudably) provided estimates of its emissions on a per-prompt basis. Yet no company has published its per-token emissions, or how emissions sync up with particular models or regions.
So Emily asked Google: Why aren’t you — or any other model provider — disclosing this kind of data yet?
The tech company didn’t get back to us until after we’d published Emily’s story. But its response was interesting enough that I wanted to quote some of it here.
The problem is “industry consensus,” Cooper Elsworth, a Google spokesperson, told us. “There is currently very little consensus on how to comprehensively and fairly measure the serving environmental impact of generative AI (such as text generation),” he wrote. “Without standardized, ‘apples-to-apples’ frameworks, it is difficult to compare different providers accurately.”
That’s partly because energy use — and emissions data — can vary from site to site and depend on “custom-built hardware, software compilers, and advanced inference techniques.” And he claimed Google doesn’t always have the measurement hardware in place to provide such specific estimates: “Providing precise, repeatable data requires highly advanced measurement infrastructure,” he said. “For example, software-based energy monitoring tools often suffer from sampling biases. For our study, we had to step away from top-down averages and directly measure actual energy at the physical power supply unit (PSU) level across our deployed fleet. Not all providers have the telemetry or data sets required to benchmark their operations at this level of granularity.”
Read Emily’s story to understand the other reasons why estimating — or even “guesstimating” — AI-related carbon emissions is so challenging.
A conversation with Emma Uridge of the Kansas Health Institute.
This week’s conversation is with Emma Uridge, analyst with the Kansas Health Institute. Uridge spent copious hours analyzing state and local laws on data center development to best understand how policymakers are responding to the potential environmental public health impacts of large AI infrastructure, including power and water. The report, which came out this week, also goes in depth into those health impacts. I reached out to her to discuss what she sees as must-watch territory for our readers on this emerging policy arena.
Our conversation was lightly edited for clarity.
What is actually being done on policy when it comes to data centers — beyond moratoria of course?
So first I’d like to just talk about the point of moratoria. It’s helpful to talk about how these policies emerge in the first place. One area where moratoria are helpful is when a data center is proposed but the county has no approach for how they’d like to potentially regulate them. That’s temporary, most of the time. It lets local governments conduct research on the various impacts and also negotiate community benefits, ones that can mitigate any potential negative impacts — like Lancaster Pennsylvania, which instituted a community benefit agreement that maximized the potential benefits of development while mitigating what large data centers can do. That agreement looked at capping municipal water use at 20,000 gallons per day and requiring 100% clean energy. It had financial penalties for non-compliance. The company also committed $20 million to their local economic development and clean energy fund. There are ways to negotiate with developers.
We also see amendments to existing zoning. Data center proposals are increasingly popping up in rural areas, many of which are unzoned, so there’s no way a county can negotiate unless there’s a moratorium in place.
Other policy solutions include different performance standards or requiring on-site renewable energy, like what Jefferson County, Missouri, looked at. Also setback requirements, mandatory noise buffers, ending by-right zoning.
Where are local governments getting ideas for regulating data centers?
A lot of the technical information comes from developers. That can in cases be seen as a biased source of information. I wouldn’t say there’s a dedicated group providing assistance to local governments when a project is proposed — which is a similar story to wind industry development, where we have only a handful of consultants who provide technical advice. It can be really helpful to get a multi-disciplinary approach to hearing information. It can be helpful to have the utility commission, public health folks, those in academia, as well as the developer.
As of right now, especially in rural areas, local governments have a hard task of balancing pushback while getting the most accurate, evidence-based, neutral information to make decisions. That balance can be contentious.
What is the federal government doing on data center policy? How is the Trump administration approaching it?
A few things there. In the early days, the drive was for AI expansion and to be competitive with foreign adversaries. Now due to the amount of public pushback in red and blue localities and a more cautious approach.
I’m not seeing a lot of actual policy movement at this time.
I know the EPA is looking at the chemicals used in cooling data centers because when that water is cycled through the system, some of it is discharged into the water system, so they’re looking at the Toxic Substances and Control Act for monitoring that.
How much of an impact does this minimal federal role have on industry behavior?
Y’know, this isn’t specific to data centers. This is true for all kinds of large-scale development: there’s a need to require some sort of federal monitoring and regulation.
That’s where I see an emerging role for public health. At the federal level, there could be policy movement towards requiring some sort of environmental monitoring at data centers to make sure they’re operating responsibility. Looking at specific water use relative to water availability and what happens when there’s a time of severe, persistent drought. With air quality too — we’ve seen areas where the grid isn’t as reliable so their diesel generators are kicking on more and affecting air quality for residents.
We’re just not seeing all of that right now. We need corporate disclosure.
What do you see as the most important public health impacts from data center development?
It varies by localities. The most discussed obviously is water usage. One thing I’d note about my conversations with folks enthusiastic around emerging tech is, there are still questions that need to be asked about the capacity of localities to support a data center. Like a small town in Kansas may only be using 40% of their water for their utility needs. If a data center came online, how much of that water goes to the data center?
One area underexplored within the public health discipline is energy poverty and energy security. The ability of a household to meet the needs of everything energy provides in our lives. It’s known we have an aging electric grid but we’re not talking enough about large-scale blackouts when the grid is not sufficient to support some of these new data centers.
Plus more of the week’s big development fights.
1. Laramie County, Wyoming — Meta is fighting the fine it received in the Cheyenne data center water pollution controversy, and the conflict between the tech giant and the city’s small board of public utilities is continuing to spill out into the public.
2. Niagara County, New York — This county just rejected a solar project’s highway work permits in a show of retaliation against the state’s Office of Renewable Energy Siting.
3. Barron County, Wisconsin — The anti-solar protest is the new campaign stop in deep red Wisconsin.
4. Chesapeake, Virginia — A large battery storage project on the Virginia coastline is on the rocks amidst rampant local opposition.
5. Lewis County, West Virginia — West Virginia is now a key battleground in the fight over transmission, as a line spanning all of West Virginia and Maryland — and cutting through Data Center Alley in Virginia — causes compounding consternation.