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Current conditions: Storm Herminia could bring fresh flooding to England and Wales, just days after Storm Éowyn • A giant iceberg is on a collision course with the island of South Georgia in the Atlantic Ocean • Phoenix, Arizona, might see rain today for the first time in 156 days.
President Trump signed an executive order establishing a review council to assess the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and said the agency needs to be “drastically” improved. The council will have no more than 20 members, and will include department heads as well as people from outside the government that are appointed by Trump himself. “These non-Federal members shall have diverse perspectives and expertise in disaster relief and assistance, emergency preparedness, natural disasters, Federal-State relationships, and budget management,” the order states. This new council will be tasked with scrutinizing the agency’s disaster relief efforts and making recommendations for improvement. Trump has slammed FEMA and the prior administration for their responses to recent natural disasters, including Hurricane Helene and the wildfires in Los Angeles. Misinformation and conspiracy theories – often floated by Republican politicians and rightwing figureheads – spread quickly in the wake of both emergencies. The executive order insists there are “serious concerns of political bias in FEMA.” While touring hurricane damage in North Carolina a few days ago, Trump suggested “getting rid of” FEMA altogether, although that would require some help from Congress. The Project 2025 playbook from the Heritage Foundation has recommended that FEMA be removed from the Department of Homeland Security, and that programs like the National Flood Insurance Program be privatized.
Rainstorms have prompted flooding alerts in parts of Los Angeles that have been left charred by recent large wildfires. The downpours are helping firefighters get a handle on the blazes that remain, with the Palisades, Eaton, and Huges fires all more than 90% contained. But the city is on edge: Too much rain could trigger landslides and flooding around burn scars. A flood advisory is in effect around the Palisades fire burn scar, and areas surrounding the Eaton fire burn scar are also on high alert. The rain could also bring “toxic runoff” – rainwater laced with the chemicals leftover from burned objects like cars and furniture. Workers have been putting improvised filters over storm drains to try to trap pollutants. The worst of the rain was expected Sunday night and Monday.
In case you missed it: The Department of Interior issued an order suspending the ability of its staff, except a few senior officials, to permit new renewables projects on public land. The document suspended the authority of “Department Bureaus and Offices” over a wide range of regular actions, including issuing “any onshore or offshore renewable energy authorization.” The suspension lasts for 60 days and can only be overridden by “a confirmed or Acting official” in a number of senior roles in the Department, including the secretary. “This step will restrict energy development, which will harm consumers and fail to meet growing electricity demand,” Jason Ryan, a spokesperson for American Clean Power, the clean energy trade group, told Heatmap in an email. “We need an ‘all-of-the-above’ energy strategy, not just a ‘some-of-the-above’ approach.”
President Trump has also requested that the Supreme Court pause all pending litigation on environmental cases, including one focusing on California’s EPA waiver to set and enforce its own vehicle emissions standards. Sources toldReuters the administration has also reassigned four Justice Department attorneys that focus on environmental issues, so that the government “speaks with one voice.”
U.S. power generation growth will be led mostly by new solar power additions over the next two years, according to the Energy Information Agency. It expects 26 gigawatts of solar to be added in 2025, down from 37 GW in 2024. Wind power additions are expected to increase by about 8 GW this year, but honestly, who knows. Meanwhile, 6% of coal generating capacity will be removed this year as coal plants are retired. U.S. energy consumption is expected to continue growing at its current rate of about 2% per year through 2026, which would mark the first three years of consecutive growth since the early 2000s.
Energy Information Agency
Here’s a little bit of good news to start the week: Trade group data suggests that air-source heat pump sales outpaced those of gas furnaces by 37% in the U.S. last year – or at least through November. If confirmed, that would be the widest margin recorded, much bigger than last year’s 21%. “The data comes with a notable caveat,” Canary Mediacautioned. “Heat pumps outsold gas furnaces, but that doesn’t necessarily mean more households are choosing heat pumps over gas heating; homes often need multiple heat pump units to replace a single fossil fuel-fired appliance.”
“We spend a lot of time talking about short-term financials, but we’re building a business for the next few decades. So, eh, who cares? It’s going to be a little more challenging the next couple of years.”
–Rivian founder and CEO R.J. Scaringe speaking toInsideEVs about whether Trump’s policies will affect his EV company
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On the uncertain future of government grants and loans, a new Treasury secretary, and deadly heat
Current conditions: A major incident was declared in parts of England after Storm Herminia brought severe flooding • A 3.8-magnituted earthquake was recorded off the coast of Maine • It’s warmer than average across central and eastern states, but colder than average in the Southwest.
The Trump administration’s Office of Management and Budget issued a two-page memo temporarily suspending all federal grants and loans. “The use of Federal resources to advance Marxist equity, transgenderism, and green new deal social engineering policies is a waste of taxpayer dollars that does not improve the day-to-day lives of those we serve,” wrote the OMB’s acting director Matthew J. Vaeth. The pause will allow agencies to review grant and loan programs and make sure they align with President Trump’s many executive orders, which have sought to sharply curtail climate initiatives and clean energy spending, among other programs. Some experts say the order is too vague to be legal. Still, it triggered panic and confusion across many state and local governments and programs. “It will mean missed payrolls and rent payments and everything in between,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. “Chaos for everything from universities to non-profit charities, state disaster assistance, local law enforcement, aid to the elderly, and food for those in need.” The pause goes into effect at 5 p.m. today.
The Senate yesterday confirmed hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary. As Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin has explained, Bessent has long advised Trump on the economy and has a “3-3-3” plan for the economy that involves cutting deficits in half to 3% of gross domestic product, ratcheting up GDP to 3%, and boosting oil production by three million barrels a day, a goal that Continental Resources chief executive and informal Trump advisor Harold Hamm has cast doubt on due to geologic constraints. Bessent has also suggested to the Financial Times that the Inflation Reduction Act could be one area where cuts to the federal budget could be found, telling the paper that it was “the Doomsday machine for the deficit.” He is reportedly aiming to introduce new universal tariffs on imports, starting at 2.5% and gradually rising to as high as 20%.
President Trump’s policy agenda cannot stop the global energy transition, analysts from Citigroup wrote in a note, according toBloomberg. “Clean energy is cheaper, more widely available, and more efficient,” the note said. “For advocates of clean energy transition, the power of economics will prevail.” The analysts weren’t particularly concerned about the U.S. exodus from the Net-Zero Banking Alliance (which Citigroup itself has left), saying this “neither impedes progress nor dilutes efforts” to decarbonize investing.
Climate change-related deaths in European cities could rise by 50% by 2099 if little is done in the way of mitigation and adaptation, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Medicine. In this scenario, some 2.3 million people in urban areas across the continent are projected to die climate-related deaths by the end of the century. “With no adaptation to heat, the increase in heat-related deaths consistently exceeds any decrease in cold-related deaths,” the authors wrote. The number of deaths could be reduced by at least two-thirds if warming peaks at 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, or at least remains below 3 degrees Celsius. The world has already warmed by 1.3 degrees Celsius. According to the Climate Action Tracker, current policies have us on a path toward roughly 2.7 degrees of warming by 2100. A separate study out today found that ocean-surface temperatures are warming more than four times faster now than they did in the late 1980s.
Projected increases (purple) and decreases (green) in excess deaths due to temperature in a warming Europe.Nature
As Los Angeles starts down the long path to recovery after its devastating wildfires, a debate is growing over what to do with all the debris leftover from the blazes. Some people are considering hiring private firms to clean up their properties, but that could cost some $170,000, the Los Angeles Timesreported. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is offering to clear away the debris for free, and the Environmental Protection Agency is also working on the cleanup, but officials warned locals at a town hall meeting Sunday that the process could take up to 18 months. That timeline was met with outrage. The EPA plans to send the debris to some L.A. County’s foothill communities to be processed for disposal, but residents there aren’t happy about the idea of being dumped with toxic wildfire waste. “The potential risks associated with hazardous materials, particularly lithium electric vehicle batteries, which are highly flammable and pose environmental contamination risks, are a matter of significant concern,” said L.A. County Supervisor Hilda Solis in a statement. “The removal of these materials should not come at the cost of creating a toxic environment for communities already disproportionately impacted by pollution.”
“Blithely insisting that incredibly complex problems will be solved easily and quickly is a specialty of tech barons. And if AI itself finds the solution to our energy problems? Even better.”
–Paul Waldman writing for Heatmap on solving climate change (or not) with AI
At the end of the day, there will always be politics.
Today’s internet is inundated with “AI slop,” and mocking the often bizarre outputs produced of language models (recall the Google AI that recommended making pizza with glue) has become an online pastime. Yet artificial intelligence advocates have not been deterred from their claims of a utopian future made possible by AI. Whatever problems we face — including climate change — one day, we are told, they will be solved by the magical power of computing. The breathless headlines have been around for years: “How artificial intelligence can tackle climate change”; “How AI could power the climate breakthrough the world needs”; “Here are 10 ways AI could help fight climate change”; “9 ways AI is helping tackle climate change.”
Like much of the hype around AI, the specifics aren’t necessarily wrong. AI could help us understand the impacts of climate change more comprehensively, and can be used to locate solutions to particular challenges in technology and manufacturing. But as the extraordinary energy demands AI will impose on our system are coming into focus, and as some of the most important corporate AI leaders join hands with what could be the most anti-environment administration in history, the big picture problem becomes even clearer. Artificial intelligence can’t solve climate change because doing so will always require passing through the bottleneck of politics.
For those hoping to bring us to a glorious future guided by superintelligent computers, claiming that AI will solve climate change has become more urgent as the energy demands of the technology increase. Google reported last summer that since 2019, its emissions have increased by 48% because of its use of AI. The International Energy Agency projects that by 2026, AI will consume 1,000 terawatt-hours of electricity, as much as the entire nation of Japan, the world’s fourth-largest economy. Countries around the world are rushing to develop their own AI systems (the surprising capabilities of a new Chinese system called DeepSeek just sent the stock market tumbling), any of which could entail the same scale of energy demand as the ones created by American tech giants.
But imagine if we could snap our fingers and make that problem disappear? That’s what OpenAI CEO Sam Altman suggested in a recent interview with Bloomberg. “Fusion’s going to work,” he said when asked about AI’s energy demands, going on to say that “quickly permitting fusion reactors” is the answer — particularly those made by Helion Energy, a company whose executive chairman is, you guessed it, Sam Altman.
Of course, Helion has no fusion reactors to permit yet because no one does. Fusion’s promise of essentially limitless clean energy at low cost is tantalizing, which is why billions of public and private dollars have been invested in fusion research. But while technological gains are being made, there is still a great deal of uncertainty about how long it will take until fusion can reach commercial scale. It might be 10 years, or 20, or 50 or 100 — no one knows for sure.
But blithely insisting that incredibly complex problems will be solved easily and quickly is a specialty of tech barons. And if AI itself finds the solution to our energy problems? Even better.
There’s no question that AI is improving at a rapid pace, even if there are some things it’s still terrible at. And when it comes to climate, over time it will probably help produce incremental gains across a wide number of areas, from manufacturing efficiency to urban planning. But the more dramatic and consequential any idea is — whether it comes from AI or not — the more likely it is that it will have to move through the political process in order to be implemented.
And that’s where AI can’t help. A machine learning system can’t tell you the precise formula to please a recalcitrant senator or navigate a hundred city councils with different ideas about what kinds of clean energy projects they’ll allow in their towns. Politics is about people — their goals, their incentives, their fears, their prejudices — and it’s far too messy to be solved with numeric calculation, even by the most powerful AI system imaginable.
Let’s say that a year from now, an AI came up with both an entirely new way to design a fusion reactor and a revolutionary battery design that offered longer and denser storage, together solving so many of the problems scientists and engineers struggle with today. How would the fossil fuel industry react to this development? Would it say, “Oh well, oil and gas had a pretty good run, but now the world can move on”?
Of course not. It would use its extraordinary resources to battle against their competition, just as they always have. That’s what it did in the last election cycle, when it spent $450 million on campaigns and lobbying to preserve the industry and the riches it generates.
And while many hoped that the Republican Party would moderate its views on climate, at the moment it looks more like it is going backward — not just looking to undo every bit of progress made under the Biden administration, but also undermining renewable energy wherever it can. President Trump seems determined to destroy wind energy in America, which has been growing rapidly in recent years. Whether he succeeds will be up to the political system, not the inherent usefulness of a millennium-old technology.
In politics, good ideas don’t always win out. Who has power and what they are after will always matter a great deal, as Trump and the people he is bringing into the federal government are showing us right now.
AI can be a tool that helps us reduce emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change; the fact that its boosters regularly offer absurdly optimistic timelines for societal transformation doesn’t mean the underlying technology isn’t remarkable. But “solving” climate change isn’t merely a technological problem. It will always be a political one as well, and even the smartest piece of software won’t solve it for us.
It’s not just AI companies taking a beating today.
It’s not just tech stocks that are reeling after the release of Chinese artificial intelligence company DeepSeek’s open-source R1 model, which performs similarly to state-of-the-art models from American companies while using less expensive hardware far more efficiently. Energy and infrastructure companies — whose share prices had soared in the past year on the promise of powering a massive artificial intelligence buildout — have also seen their stock prices fall early Monday.
Shares in GE Vernova, which manufactures turbines for gas-fired power plants, were down 19% in early trading Monday. Since the company’s spinoff from GE last April, the share price had risen almost 200% through last Friday, largely based on optimism about its ability to supply higher electricity demand. Oklo, the advanced nuclear company backed by OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman, is down 25%, after rising almost 300% in the past year. Constellation Energy, the independent power producer that’s re-powering Three Mile Island in partnership with Microsoft, saw its shares fall almost 20% in early trading. It had risen almost 190% in the year prior to Monday.
“DeepSeek’s power implications for AI training punctures some of the capex euphoria which followed major commitments from Stargate and Meta last week,” Jefferies infrastructure analyst Graham Hunt and his colleagues wrote in a note to clients Monday. “With DeepSeek delivering performance comparable to GPT-4 for a fraction of the computing power, there are potential negative implications for the builders, as pressure on AI players to justify ever increasing capex plans could ultimately lead to a lower trajectory for data center revenue and profit growth.”
Investors fear that the proliferation of cheaper, more efficient models may hurt the prospects of technology companies — and their suppliers — that are spending tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars on artificial intelligence investments.
Just last week, both Altman and Mark Zuckerberg, the founder and chief executive of Meta, announced huge new investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Altman’s OpenAI is part of Stargate, the joint venture with Microsoft and SoftBank that got a splashy White House-based announcement and promises to invest $500 billion in artificial intelligence infrastructure. There was already some skepticism of these numbers, with Altman-nemesis Elon Musk charging that certain members would be unable to fulfill their ends of the deal, Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella told CNBC from Davos, “I’m good for my $80 billion.”
Zuckerberg, meanwhile, said late last week that his company was building a data center “so large it would cover a significant part of Manhattan,” which would require 2 gigawatts of electricity to power. (For scale, reactors 3 and 4 of the Vogtle nuclear plant in Georgia are a little over 1 gigawatt each.) He also said that Meta had planned up to $65 billion of capital expenditure this year.
These escalating announcements have been manna to investors in any company that provides the building blocks for large artificial intelligence systems — namely chips and energy, with companies like Nvidia, the chip designer, and power companies and energy infrastructure companies posting some of the best stock market performances last year.
But exactly how cheaper artificial intelligence plays out in terms of real investment remains to be seen. Late Sunday night Redmond, Washington-time, Nadella posted a link on X to the Wikipedia page for Jevons Paradox. The idea dates from 19th century Britain, and posits that increased efficiency in using a resource (in Jevons’ case, coal) could actually accelerate its depletion, as the resource becomes cheaper for the same economic output, encouraging more use of it (in Jevons’ case, iron).
“Jevons paradox strikes again!,” Nadella wrote. “As AI gets more efficient and accessible, we will see its use skyrocket, turning it into a commodity we just can't get enough of.”
Investors in chips and energy companies are hoping that’s the case; at least so far, the market doesn’t appear to agree.