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Politics

Welcome to Inauguration Day

On changeover in Washington, Biden’s final moves, and a mass migration

Welcome to Inauguration Day
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Dangerous Santa Ana winds return to fire-ravaged Southern California • It is cold and cloudy in Davos, Switzerland, for the start of the World Economic Forum • A blanket of cold air will cover most of the U.S. this week, bringing temperatures between 15 and 25 degrees Fahrenheit below historical averages.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Trump preparing ‘close to 100’ Day 1 executive orders

President-elect Donald Trump is expected to sign “close to 100” executive orders in the hours after taking office today, including actions aimed at reshaping energy policy. Trump’s top domestic policy adviser, Stephen Miller, briefed Congress on the plans, which include stopping climate-related spending, rolling back limits on oil and gas drilling, slashing tailpipe emissions rules, and declaring a “national energy emergency” to expand energy production. Most of these initiatives will not take effect immediately and will likely face lengthy legal challenges. But one move – removing the U.S. from the Paris Agreement for a second time – would be swift. The swearing in ceremony will begin today at 12 pm EST. It had to be moved inside due to cold weather.

2. Biden protects most IRA clean energy grants from incoming administration

The Biden administration has finalized some $96.7 billion in clean energy grants, meaning they are protected and cannot be revoked by the incoming Trump administration, according to the White House. That amount represents about 84% of the grants issued from the Inflation Reduction Act. The administration has distributed more than $27 billion in clean-energy financing in recent weeks, rushing to close big loans before Trump takes over. On Friday, the Department of Energy announced it had finalized a $15 billion loan to Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PG&E) to “support a portfolio of projects to expand hydropower generation and battery storage, upgrade transmission capacity through reconductoring and grid enhancing technologies, and enable virtual power plants throughout PG&E’s service area.” Earlier in the week it closed on a $6.57 billion loan to EV maker Rivian. “The pace of announcements is unprecedented,” Kennedy Nickerson, a former policy adviser in the Loan Programs Office, told Bloomberg.

3. Heatmap survey reveals climate and decarbonization insiders’ views on the future

An exclusive Heatmap survey reveals what most climate and decarbonization insiders think the future has in store – both in the near term and looking further ahead. Some key findings:

  • They don’t think Trump will repeal most of the climate provisions in the IRA. 68% of respondents said no, 17% said yes, 15% weren’t sure.
  • They’re bullish about geothermal, hot rocks, and batteries. Fervo, Form Energy, Rondo, and Antora were all mentioned.
  • They view high-quality heat pumps as being pretty far from mass adoption. Heat pumps were tied with any way to make chemicals, liquid fuels, or plastics in a low-carbon way.
  • On average, they see global temperatures rising by 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100. One venture capitalist predicted that “we will be able to control global temperatures before we achieve net zero, so by 2100 if civilization is still healthy we will have settled at some optimal temperature.”

Read the full list of predictions here.

4. AccuWeather foresees large migration from California

Weather forecasting service AccuWeather thinks this month’s devastating wildfires in Los Angeles will trigger a mass migration out of California. The fires capped off what AccuWeather said has been the most “costly and impactful” year in terms of extreme weather events since the Dust Bowl nearly a century ago. “The Dust Bowl led to a massive migration west to California,” said AccuWeather founder and executive chairman Dr. Joel N. Myers. “Ninety years later, we expect these wildfires, the rising costs of rebuilding and recovery, the challenge of securing and affording insurance, as well as drought and water supply concerns will likely lead to a significant migration out of California over the next few years.” Nine U.S. weather disasters over the last 12 months have caused between $693 billion and $800 billion in damage and economic losses, with the preliminary cost of the LA fires estimated at $275 billion.

5. EV startup Canoo files for bankruptcy

In case you missed it: Electric van startup Canoo filed for bankruptcy and ceased operations on Friday. The company had some high-profile partners for its EV commercial fleets concept, including NASA, the USPS, the Department of Defense, and Walmart, but ultimately ran out of money. “The writing was on the wall for the EV startup leading up to the announcement,” said Cheyenne Macdonald at Engadget. Recently Canoo furloughed its workers, paused manufacturing, and saw many executives walk away.

THE KICKER

All national parks are free to enter today in honor of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.

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Podcast

Heatmap’s Annual Climate Insiders Survey Is Here

Rob takes Jesse through our battery of questions.

A person taking a survey.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Every year, Heatmap asks dozens of climate scientists, officials, and business leaders the same set of questions. It’s an act of temperature-taking we call our Insiders Survey — and our 2026 edition is live now.

In this week’s Shift Key episode, Rob puts Jesse through the survey wringer. What is the most exciting climate tech company? Are data centers slowing down decarbonization? And will a country attempt the global deployment of solar radiation management within the next decade? It’s a fun one! Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.

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The Insiders Survey

Climate Insiders Want to Stop Talking About ‘Climate Change’

They still want to decarbonize, but they’re over the jargon.

Climate protesters.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Where does the fight to decarbonize the global economy go from here? The past 12 months, after all, have been bleak. Donald Trump has pulled the United States out of the Paris Agreement (again) and is trying to leave a precursor United Nations climate treaty, as well. He ripped out half the Inflation Reduction Act, sidetracked the Environmental Protection Administration, and rechristened the Energy Department’s in-house bank in the name of “energy dominance.” Even nonpartisan weather research — like that conducted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research — is getting shut down by Trump’s ideologues. And in the days before we went to press, Trump invaded Venezuela with the explicit goal (he claims) of taking its oil.

Abroad, the picture hardly seems rosier. China’s new climate pledge struck many observers as underwhelming. Mark Carney, who once led the effort to decarbonize global finance, won Canada’s premiership after promising to lift parts of that country’s carbon tax — then struck a “grand bargain” with fossiliferous Alberta. Even Europe seems to dither between its climate goals, its economic security, and the need for faster growth.

Now would be a good time, we thought, for an industry-wide check-in. So we called up 55 of the most discerning and often disputatious voices in climate and clean energy — the scientists, researchers, innovators, and reformers who are already shaping our climate future. Some of them led the Biden administration’s climate policy from within the White House; others are harsh or heterodox critics of mainstream environmentalism. And a few more are on the front lines right now, tasked with responding to Trump’s policies from the halls of Congress — or the ivory minarets of academia.

We asked them all the same questions, including: Which key decarbonization technology is not ready for primetime? Who in the Trump administration has been the worst for decarbonization? And how hot is the planet set to get in 2100, really? (Among other queries.) Their answers — as summarized and tabulated by my colleagues — are available in these pages.

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Will Data Centers Slow Decarbonization?

Plus, which is the best hyperscaler on climate — and which is the worst?

A data center and renewable energy.
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The biggest story in energy right now is data centers.

After decades of slow load growth, forecasters are almost competing with each other to predict the most eye-popping figure for how much new electricity demand data centers will add to the grid. And with the existing electricity system with its backbone of natural gas, more data centers could mean higher emissions.

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