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Politics

Welcome to Inauguration Day

On changeover in Washington, Biden’s final moves, and a mass migration

Welcome to Inauguration Day
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Dangerous Santa Ana winds return to fire-ravaged Southern California • It is cold and cloudy in Davos, Switzerland, for the start of the World Economic Forum • A blanket of cold air will cover most of the U.S. this week, bringing temperatures between 15 and 25 degrees Fahrenheit below historical averages.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Trump preparing ‘close to 100’ Day 1 executive orders

President-elect Donald Trump is expected to sign “close to 100” executive orders in the hours after taking office today, including actions aimed at reshaping energy policy. Trump’s top domestic policy adviser, Stephen Miller, briefed Congress on the plans, which include stopping climate-related spending, rolling back limits on oil and gas drilling, slashing tailpipe emissions rules, and declaring a “national energy emergency” to expand energy production. Most of these initiatives will not take effect immediately and will likely face lengthy legal challenges. But one move – removing the U.S. from the Paris Agreement for a second time – would be swift. The swearing in ceremony will begin today at 12 pm EST. It had to be moved inside due to cold weather.

2. Biden protects most IRA clean energy grants from incoming administration

The Biden administration has finalized some $96.7 billion in clean energy grants, meaning they are protected and cannot be revoked by the incoming Trump administration, according to the White House. That amount represents about 84% of the grants issued from the Inflation Reduction Act. The administration has distributed more than $27 billion in clean-energy financing in recent weeks, rushing to close big loans before Trump takes over. On Friday, the Department of Energy announced it had finalized a $15 billion loan to Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PG&E) to “support a portfolio of projects to expand hydropower generation and battery storage, upgrade transmission capacity through reconductoring and grid enhancing technologies, and enable virtual power plants throughout PG&E’s service area.” Earlier in the week it closed on a $6.57 billion loan to EV maker Rivian. “The pace of announcements is unprecedented,” Kennedy Nickerson, a former policy adviser in the Loan Programs Office, toldBloomberg.

3. Heatmap survey reveals climate and decarbonization insiders’ views on the future

An exclusive Heatmap survey reveals what most climate and decarbonization insiders think the future has in store – both in the near term and looking further ahead. Some key findings:

  • They don’t think Trump will repeal most of the climate provisions in the IRA. 68% of respondents said no, 17% said yes, 15% weren’t sure.
  • They’re bullish about geothermal, hot rocks, and batteries. Fervo, Form Energy, Rondo, and Antora were all mentioned.
  • They view high-quality heat pumps as being pretty far from mass adoption. Heat pumps were tied with any way to make chemicals, liquid fuels, or plastics in a low-carbon way.
  • On average, they see global temperatures rising by 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100. One venture capitalist predicted that “we will be able to control global temperatures before we achieve net zero, so by 2100 if civilization is still healthy we will have settled at some optimal temperature.”

Read the full list of predictions here.

4. AccuWeather foresees large migration from California

Weather forecasting service AccuWeather thinks this month’s devastating wildfires in Los Angeles will trigger a mass migration out of California. The fires capped off what AccuWeather said has been the most “costly and impactful” year in terms of extreme weather events since the Dust Bowl nearly a century ago. “The Dust Bowl led to a massive migration west to California,” said AccuWeather founder and executive chairman Dr. Joel N. Myers. “Ninety years later, we expect these wildfires, the rising costs of rebuilding and recovery, the challenge of securing and affording insurance, as well as drought and water supply concerns will likely lead to a significant migration out of California over the next few years.” Nine U.S. weather disasters over the last 12 months have caused between $693 billion and $800 billion in damage and economic losses, with the preliminary cost of the LA fires estimated at $275 billion.

5. EV startup Canoo files for bankruptcy

In case you missed it: Electric van startup Canoo filed for bankruptcy and ceased operations on Friday. The company had some high-profile partners for its EV commercial fleets concept, including NASA, the USPS, the Department of Defense, and Walmart, but ultimately ran out of money. “The writing was on the wall for the EV startup leading up to the announcement,” said Cheyenne Macdonald at Engadget. Recently Canoo furloughed its workers, paused manufacturing, and saw many executives walk away.

THE KICKER

All national parks are free to enter today in honor of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.

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Climate

AM Briefing: Hurricane Erick’s Rapid Intensification

On storm damage, the Strait of Hormuz, and Volkswagen’s robotaxi

Hurricane Erick Intensified Really, Really Quickly
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: A dangerous heat dome is forming over central states today and will move progressively eastward over the next week • Wildfire warnings have been issued in London • Typhoon Wutip brought the worst flooding in a century to China’s southern province of Guangdong.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Hurricane Erick slams into Mexico after rapid intensification

Hurricane Erick made landfall as a Category 3 storm on Mexico’s Pacific coast yesterday with maximum sustained winds around 125 mph. Damages are reported in Oaxaca and Guerrero. The storm is dissipating now, but it could drop up to 6 inches of rain in some parts of Mexico and trigger life-threatening flooding and mudslides, according to the National Hurricane Center. Erick is the earliest major hurricane to make landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast, and one of the fastest-intensifying storms on record: It strengthen from a tropical storm to a Category 4 storm in just 24 hours, a pattern of rapid intensification that is becoming more common as the Earth warms due to human-caused climate change. As meteorologist and hurricane expert Michael Lowry noted, Mexico’s Pacific coast was “previously unfamiliar with strong hurricanes” but has been battered by epic storms over the last two years. Acapulco is still recovering from Category 5 Hurricane Otis, which struck in late 2023.

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Politics

It’s Chris Wright’s Worldview. They’re Just Legislating It.

The energy secretary's philosophy is all over the Senate mega-bill.

Chris Wright.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

As the Senate Finance Committee worked on its version of the reconciliation bill that would, among things, overhaul the Inflation Reduction Act, there was much speculation among observers that there could be a carve out for sources of power like geothermal, hydropower, and nuclear, which provide steady generation and tend to be more popular among Republicans, along the lines of the slightly better treatment received by advanced nuclear in the House bill.

Instead, the Senate Finance Committee’s text didn’t carve out these “firm” sources of power, it carved out solar and wind, preserving tax credits for everything else through 2035, while sunsetting solar and wind by 2028.

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Wires and panels.
Heatmap Illustration | Abbr. Projects

When I reached out to climate tech investors on Tuesday to gauge their reaction to the Senate’s proposed overhaul of the clean energy tax credits, I thought I might get a standard dose of can-do investor optimism. Though the proposal from the Senate Finance committee would cut tax credits for wind and solar, it would preserve them for other sources of clean energy, such as geothermal, nuclear, and batteries — areas of significant focus and investment for many climate-focused venture firms.

But the vibe ended up being fairly divided. While many investors expressed cautious optimism about what this latest text could mean for their particular portfolio companies, others worried that by slashing incentives for solar and wind, the bill’s implications for the energy transition at large would be categorically terrible.

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