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On the rise of "new" denial, shipping emissions, and nocturnal mountain goats
Current conditions: Nashville recorded sub-zero temperatures for only the second time since 1996 • Heavy rains left at least 11 dead in Rio de Janeiro • Invasive and deadly fire ants have been spotted “rafting” on Australian flood waters.
The climate denial movement has entered a new phase, suggests new research from the Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH). The study analyzed transcripts of more than 12,000 climate-related YouTube videos posted since 2018 and found evidence that “old denial” narratives (Global warming isn’t real! Humans have nothing to do with it!) are becoming less common as the effects of climate change become undeniable. But they’re being replaced by what the researchers call “new denial” tactics. These narratives focus on discrediting climate solutions like renewable energy projects and electric vehicles, or downplaying the harmful effects of global warming. “New denial” claims more than tripled since 2018; “old denial” claims were down by one-third.
The shift exposes a gap in YouTube’s disinformation policies: While the platform has cracked down on advertising on videos that deny outright that climate change is real, no such rules exist for the wave of “new denial.” The study estimates YouTube could be making up to $13.4 million per year in ad revenue from channels that promote denial. “Given that the battleground has shifted and the new denial is the biggest component of climate denial content overall, it’s time for them to extend their rules to that as well,” Imran Ahmed, founder and chief executive officer of the CCDH, toldBloomberg Green.
Greenhouse gas emissions from the shipping sector are increasing due to ongoing disruption in the Red Sea, Reutersreports. The Red Sea is the gateway to the Suez Canal, which offers a quick route for ships transporting goods from Asia to Europe. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have been attacking ships in the region in response to the Israel-Hamas war. To avoid the conflict, vessels are taking longer routes via the southern tip of Africa and burning more fuel as a result. The average container vessel transporting goods from China to Rotterdam via the Suez Canal would spew about 41,000 tons of carbon dioxide, but that total jumps to 55,000 tons if that ship has to go the long way, Reuters says. And as ships increase their speeds to make up for lost time, they produce even more pollution. International shipping already accounts for about 2% of global energy-related CO2, according to the International Energy Agency.
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Southeast Asia has increased its solar- and wind-power capacity by 20% in the last year, according to a new report from Global Energy Monitor (GEM). The analysis looks at the energy mix across 10 countries that make up the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). These include Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Cambodia. It finds that solar and wind account for 9% of electricity generating capacity in the region, and flags Vietnam as being a regional leader. When combined with hydropower, geothermal, and bioenergy, this brings the ASEAN bloc’s renewable capacity to 32%, which is very near its goal of 35% by 2025. GEM says this target is therefore “unambitious.” The report cautions that fossil fuel use is likely to rise in the region as “energy demands are outpacing utility-scale solar and wind development.”
Mountain goats are daytime creatures, and they usually do most of their foraging while the sun is up. But as global temperatures rise, they are becoming more active at night, according to a new study seen by The Guardian. Researchers from the University of Sassari, in Sardinia, tracked the behaviors of the Alpine ibex goat over 13 years and found that on especially warm days, the animals were more likely to be active at night, even though this put them at higher risk of being attacked by predators. “We can expect that during the night when the temperature is lower other animals will shift their activity towards the nocturnal hours,” Francesca Brivio, who co-authored the study, tells The Guardian. “If during the day it is too hot to eat or to be active, they will prefer to perform all their activities, like foraging, at night.”
Climate scientist Ed Hawkins, creator of the warming stripes, put together a detailed graphic that tracks changes in the climate system alongside important milestones in human history, such as the invention of the steam engine and the discovery of global warming. “In every case, the recent changes are rapid and unusual compared to before human influence on the climate,” he says. Take a look:
“Do you think those CEOs are going to say, ‘Oh my God, they just elected a new president, let's go back and build internal combustion engine cars?’ Not on your life. Not happening.” –U.S. climate envoy John Kerry on whether a second Trump presidency would halt America’s clean energy transition
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The Loan Programs Office is good for more than just nuclear funding.
That China has a whip hand over the rare earths mining and refining industry is one of the few things Washington can agree on.
That’s why Alex Jacquez, who worked on industrial policy for Joe Biden’s National Economic Council, found it “astounding”when he read in the Washington Post this week that the White House was trying to figure out on the fly what to do about China restricting exports of rare earth metals in response to President Trump’s massive tariffs on the country’s imports.
Rare earth metals have a wide variety of applications, including for magnets in medical technology, defense, and energy productssuch as wind turbines and electric motors.
Jacquez told me there has been “years of work, including by the first Trump administration, that has pointed to this exact case as the worst-case scenario that could happen in an escalation with China.” It stands to reason, then, that experienced policymakers in the Trump administration might have been mindful of forestalling this when developing their tariff plan. But apparently not.
“The lines of attack here are numerous,” Jacquez said. “The fact that the National Economic Council and others are apparently just thinking about this for the first time is pretty shocking.”
And that’s not the only thing the Trump administration is doing that could hamper American access to rare earths and critical minerals.
Though China still effectively controls the global pipeline for most critical minerals (a broader category that includes rare earths as well as more commonly known metals and minerals such as lithium and cobalt), the U.S. has been at work for at least the past five years developing its own domestic supply chain. Much of that work has fallen to the Department of Energy, whose Loan Programs Office has funded mining and processing facilities, and whose Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains hasfunded and overseen demonstration projects for rare earths and critical minerals mining and refining.
The LPO is in line for dramatic cuts, as Heatmap has reported. So, too, are other departments working on rare earths, including the Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains. In its zeal to slash the federal government, the Trump administration may have to start from scratch in its efforts to build up a rare earths supply chain.
The Department of Energy did not reply to a request for comment.
This vulnerability to China has been well known in Washington for years, including by the first Trump administration.
“Our dependence on one country, the People's Republic of China (China), for multiple critical minerals is particularly concerning,” then-President Trump said in a 2020 executive order declaring a “national emergency” to deal with “our Nation's undue reliance on critical minerals.” At around the same time, the Loan Programs Office issued guidance “stating a preference for projects related to critical mineral” for applicants for the office’s funding, noting that “80 percent of its rare earth elements directly from China.” Using the Defense Production Act, the Trump administration also issued a grant to the company operating America's sole rare earth mine, MP Materials, to help fund a processing facility at the site of its California mine.
The Biden administration’s work on rare earths and critical minerals was almost entirely consistent with its predecessor’s, just at a greater scale and more focused on energy. About a month after taking office, President Bidenissued an executive order calling for, among other things, a Defense Department report “identifying risks in the supply chain for critical minerals and other identified strategic materials, including rare earth elements.”
Then as part of the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, the Biden administration increased funding for LPO, which supported a number of critical minerals projects. It also funneled more money into MP Materials — including a $35 million contract from the Department of Defense in 2022 for the California project. In 2024, it awarded the company a competitive tax credit worth $58.5 million to help finance construction of its neodymium-iron-boron magnet factory in Texas. That facilitybegan commercial operation earlier this year.
The finished magnets will be bought by General Motors for its electric vehicles. But even operating at full capacity, it won’t be able to do much to replace China’s production. The MP Metals facility is projected to produce 1,000 tons of the magnets per year.China produced 138,000 tons of NdFeB magnets in 2018.
The Trump administration is not averse to direct financial support for mining and minerals projects, but they seem to want to do it a different way. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum has proposed using a sovereign wealth fund to invest in critical mineral mines. There is one big problem with that plan, however: the U.S. doesn’t have one (for the moment, at least).
“LPO can invest in mining projects now,” Jacquez told me. “Cutting 60% of their staff and the experts who work on this is not going to give certainty to the business community if they’re looking to invest in a mine that needs some government backstop.”
And while the fate of the Inflation Reduction Act remains very much in doubt, the subsidies it provided for electric vehicles, solar, and wind, along with domestic content requirements have been a major source of demand for critical minerals mining and refining projects in the United States.
“It’s not something we’re going to solve overnight,” Jacquez said. “But in the midst of a maximalist trade with China, it is something we will have to deal with on an overnight basis, unless and until there’s some kind of de-escalation or agreement.”
A conversation with VDE Americas CEO Brian Grenko.
This week’s Q&A is about hail. Last week, we explained how and why hail storm damage in Texas may have helped galvanize opposition to renewable energy there. So I decided to reach out to Brian Grenko, CEO of renewables engineering advisory firm VDE Americas, to talk about how developers can make sure their projects are not only resistant to hail but also prevent that sort of pushback.
The following conversation has been lightly edited for clarity.
Hiya Brian. So why’d you get into the hail issue?
Obviously solar panels are made with glass that can allow the sunlight to come through. People have to remember that when you install a project, you’re financing it for 35 to 40 years. While the odds of you getting significant hail in California or Arizona are low, it happens a lot throughout the country. And if you think about some of these large projects, they may be in the middle of nowhere, but they are taking hundreds if not thousands of acres of land in some cases. So the chances of them encountering large hail over that lifespan is pretty significant.
We partnered with one of the country’s foremost experts on hail and developed a really interesting technology that can digest radar data and tell folks if they’re developing a project what the [likelihood] will be if there’s significant hail.
Solar panels can withstand one-inch hail – a golfball size – but once you get over two inches, that’s when hail starts breaking solar panels. So it’s important to understand, first and foremost, if you’re developing a project, you need to know the frequency of those events. Once you know that, you need to start thinking about how to design a system to mitigate that risk.
The government agencies that look over land use, how do they handle this particular issue? Are there regulations in place to deal with hail risk?
The regulatory aspects still to consider are about land use. There are authorities with jurisdiction at the federal, state, and local level. Usually, it starts with the local level and with a use permit – a conditional use permit. The developer goes in front of the township or the city or the county, whoever has jurisdiction of wherever the property is going to go. That’s where it gets political.
To answer your question about hail, I don’t know if any of the [authority having jurisdictions] really care about hail. There are folks out there that don’t like solar because it’s an eyesore. I respect that – I don’t agree with that, per se, but I understand and appreciate it. There’s folks with an agenda that just don’t want solar.
So okay, how can developers approach hail risk in a way that makes communities more comfortable?
The bad news is that solar panels use a lot of glass. They take up a lot of land. If you have hail dropping from the sky, that’s a risk.
The good news is that you can design a system to be resilient to that. Even in places like Texas, where you get large hail, preparing can mean the difference between a project that is destroyed and a project that isn’t. We did a case study about a project in the East Texas area called Fighting Jays that had catastrophic damage. We’re very familiar with the area, we work with a lot of clients, and we found three other projects within a five-mile radius that all had minimal damage. That simple decision [to be ready for when storms hit] can make the complete difference.
And more of the week’s big fights around renewable energy.
1. Long Island, New York – We saw the face of the resistance to the war on renewable energy in the Big Apple this week, as protestors rallied in support of offshore wind for a change.
2. Elsewhere on Long Island – The city of Glen Cove is on the verge of being the next New York City-area community with a battery storage ban, discussing this week whether to ban BESS for at least one year amid fire fears.
3. Garrett County, Maryland – Fight readers tell me they’d like to hear a piece of good news for once, so here’s this: A 300-megawatt solar project proposed by REV Solar in rural Maryland appears to be moving forward without a hitch.
4. Stark County, Ohio – The Ohio Public Siting Board rejected Samsung C&T’s Stark Solar project, citing “consistent opposition to the project from each of the local government entities and their impacted constituents.”
5. Ingham County, Michigan – GOP lawmakers in the Michigan State Capitol are advancing legislation to undo the state’s permitting primacy law, which allows developers to evade municipalities that deny projects on unreasonable grounds. It’s unlikely the legislation will become law.
6. Churchill County, Nevada – Commissioners have upheld the special use permit for the Redwood Materials battery storage project we told you about last week.