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Q&A

How the GOP Tax Bill Would Supercharge Renewable Energy NIMBYs

A conversation with Jillian Blanchard of Lawyers for Good Government about the heightened cost of permitting delays

Jillian Blanchard.
Heatmap Illustration

This week I chatted with Jillian Blanchard, vice president of climate change and environmental justice with Lawyers for Good Government, an organization that has been supporting beneficiaries of the Inflation Reduction Act navigate the uncertainties surrounding tax credits and grant programs under the Trump administration. The reason I wanted to chat with Jillian is simple: the IRA is under threat for the first time under a Republican Congress. I wanted to understand how solar and wind projects could be impacted by the House Republican reconciliation bill and putting IRA tax credits in doubt. I learned a lot.

The following conversation was lightly edited for clarity.

Okay, Jillian, what’s the topline here? How would the GOP reconciliation bill impact individual projects’ development?

There are big chunks of the reconciliation bill that will have dramatic impacts on project development, including language that would repeal or phase out bipartisan and popular tax credits in a way that would make it very, very difficult to invest in projects. I can get into the weeds next.

But it’s worth saying first – the group of programs aside from tax credits that [House Republicans] would repeal represents every single part of America. Hundreds of projects that will not go forward if these programs are not going well. And they have several legally obligated grants that EPA has already mucked up in a litany of ways. But what they’re proposing to do is to pull the rug out from under those programs. On top of that they want to pull any unobligated funding out.

I think it’s extremely misrepresentative to say these are not big cuts. They’re significant cuts to clean air and clean water across the board.

Help me get into the weeds about how phasing out the credits will make it harder to invest in a project.

Right now, a bank might want to invest a certain amount of money in a clean energy project because they know on the back end they can get 30% or 40% back on their investment. A return through tax credits. They can bank on that, because tax credits are a guarantee.

Was that an intentional pun? “Bank”?

Yeah, it is. I love a good pun. You opened the floodgates, that was a mistake.

But anyway, the program itself was supposed to be around until at least 2032 and the bank could bank on those tax credits. That’s a big runway, because projects could get delayed and you could lock in the credit as soon as you started construction.

Now they’re doing a phase-out approach where if your project is not placed into service before a certain date, you don’t avoid the phase out. You don’t get any protections if you’re starting your project now or next year. It has to be placed in service before 2028 or else your project may not be eligible. You are constructing it, you are financing it, but then through no fault of your own – a storm or whatever – then suddenly that project is no longer entitled to get 30% or 40% back.

That’s a big risk. And banks don’t like risk.

Opposition on the ground also delays projects the way a storm does. Would this empower those opponents?

Oh, totally. Totally. If anyone wants to fight a project, a bank might be even less likely to invest in it. The NIMBYs for that particular project become a risk.

What would you tell a developer at this moment who is wondering about the uncertainty around the IRA?

I would tell them that now is the time to speak up. If they want to stay in this business and make sure their energy stays as low-cost as it already is, they need to speak up right now, no matter what their political party affiliation is. Make it clear solar isn’t going away, wind isn’t going away, storage isn’t going away. These are markets America needs to be competitive with the rest of the world.

Yellow

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Spotlight

Democrats’ Growing Divide Over Data Centers

It’s pause vs pause-nots.

Data center protests.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

The American climate movement is beginning to look a lot like AI doomers versus the techno-optimists. It’s a dynamic that is winning local bans – and very little else for now.

On one side, you’ve got the left-leaning insurgent grassroots movement against data centers. In many cases this push is in the name of climate action and environmental justice, with activists citing the risks of pollution from gas-fired power and the potential for strain on existing electricity supplies. But in many, many other cases, this movement is decidedly not about climate action; instead it’s a movement addressing everything from energy prices and power over large corporations to AI use generally.

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Hotspots

Local Police Targeted Data Center Opponent, Law Firm Alleges

And more of the week’s top news around development fights.

The United States.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

1. Jefferson County, Alabama – A law firm is alleging that police in the city of Birmingham retaliated against a woman for suing developers of a data center. It might just be a wake-up call for data center developers.

  • Earlier this month, two individuals each with homes next to a proposed 300-megawatt data center in Birmingham filed a class action lawsuit against developer Nebius and the city of Birmingham. The lawsuit alleges “multiple independently fatal zoning violations” rooted in the city’s decision to let Nebius’s project move forward while also finalizing a moratorium, and claims the city has granted approvals in violation of the existing moratorium.
  • On May 18, days after the lawsuit was filed, lawyers for one of the individuals – Madelyn Greene – wrote the Birmingham Police Department stating officers pulled her over while driving through the proposed project site without any lawful reason. According to the letter, which I obtained and was first reported by AL.com, the officers claimed she was harassing police and started filming her while in her car. When she took her own phone out, the officers “abruptly broke off contact, returned to their vehicles, and left the scene.”
  • The letter concludes the traffic stop “timing and location are not coincidental.” It warned that any additional attempts by city police to “stop, detain, surveil, follow, photograph, intimidate, or otherwise harass” people involved in the lawsuit will result in requests for restraining orders.
  • Situations like these vividly illustrate the problems around security forces and large infrastructure projects. Activists fighting the Thacker Pass lithium mine in Nevada were monitored for years. Conflicts between police and oil pipeline protestors are common and complaints about surveillance abound.
  • I feel compelled to say that data center developers and large tech firms would be wise to coordinate with local police on matters such as these – not just for their own benefit but for that of the public. It’s one thing when protesters are arrested at a hearing, but wholly another when members of the public are concerned voicing dissent will lead to retaliation. All that’ll do is aggravate the opposition further.
  • Nebius did not respond to a request for comment.

2. Mason County, Kentucky – This county is the site of yet another eminent domain debacle and I suggest you pay attention to it because it’s now represented by an outgoing congressman with nothing left to lose: Thomas Massie.

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Q&A

What’s Bothering a Free Market Wonk About the Data Center Boom

A conversation with Travis Fisher of the Cato Institute.

Travis Fisher.
Heatmap Illustration

This week’s conversation is with Travis Fisher, an energy policy analyst with the Cato Institute and one of my favorite people to chop it up with on Energy Twitter. I reached out to Fisher for a conversation about how he’s approaching the data center boom as a free market-minded wonk at a time when other figures on the so-called Right are calling for strict regulations on the sector. What I learned is that folks like Fisher are concerned about the scale of the buildout too, but their ideas and approaches wildly differ from the Tucker Carlsons of the world.

As always, our conversation was edited for length and clarity.

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