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On COP29 funding goals, congestion pricing, and the Cybertruck
Current conditions: Smog in India has obscured views of the towering Taj Mahal • Thousands of people have evacuated Málaga, Spain, due to extreme flooding • Most of the U.S. will experience higher-than-average temperatures through the end of the week.
Developing nations will need at least $1 trillion a year in climate finance by 2030, growing to $1.3 trillion by 2035, according to new analysis from economists with the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance. The study was released as negotiators continue to hammer out a new climate finance goal at COP29. The current funding goal – $100 billion per year – was agreed in 2009. Meanwhile, Brazil unveiled its new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) yesterday. The country aims to cut emissions between 59% and 67% by 2035 compared to 2005 levels and “gradually replace” the use of fossil fuels. But as Climate Home Newsreported, “the South American nation is also planning to increase oil and gas production by 36% by the same year.” The U.S. is expected to announce its new NDC at the climate summit.
A new report published this morning finds that projections for temperature increases through 2100 remain stagnant for the third year in a row. The research group Climate Action Tracker found that the world is likely to warm by 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century. But there’s a 50% chance the number could be lower – or higher. By 2030, temperatures are now expected to rise somewhere between 1.9 and 2.6 degrees Celsius (3.4 and 4.7 degrees Fahrenheit), a slight uptick thanks to “minimal progress” from governments in strengthening emissions targets. “Mixed signals from the political space are canceling each other out and clearly hindering progress in climate action,” the report said. “COP29 must be an enabling COP, delivering concrete outcomes to translate the pledges made last year into real-world, real-economy results.”
Climate Action Tracker
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul will re-introduce a plan to introduce congestion pricing for vehicles traveling into Lower Manhattan, but the fees will be significantly lower than those in the original proposal: $9 compared to $15. The plan could be fast-tracked for approval by next week and could go into effect before January, The New York Timesreported, “a time frame that aims to pre-empt [President-elect Donald] Trump’s vows to kill the program.”
The storm system churning in the Caribbean is expected to become Tropical Storm Sara today and poses a “catastrophic risk to lives and property” in Honduras, Belize, and Nicaragua. Areas in Central America with steep terrain “are especially vulnerable to flooding,” AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jon Porter said. Tropical storm and hurricane alerts have been issued for the region. The National Hurricane Center warns of dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. The storm could strengthen into a hurricane by the weekend, though its trajectory is uncertain and Floridians are advised to keep an eye on the situation.
NOAA and NHC
Tesla issued another recall for the Cybertruck this week due to a fault with the drive inverter that “may cause it to stop producing torque. If the inverter stops producing torque, the driver loses the ability to apply torque to the vehicle using the accelerator pedal resulting in a loss of propulsion, which may increase the risk of a collision.” This is the Cybertruck’s sixth recall, and it applies to about 2,400 trucks. This particular fault can’t be fixed with a software update, so vehicles have to be serviced and the inverter replaced.
Researchers have discovered the world’s largest known coral colony in the Solomon Islands. Measuring 111 feet wide, 105 feet long, and 18 feet tall, the mega coral is estimated to be at least 300 years old. Its location deep down in cool waters may help protect it from rising temperatures.
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A new report finds that utilities are spending more than fossil fuel companies to keep up with data center electricity demand.
The transition to clean energy is largely a shift from molecules to electrons — gasoline in the tank is out, electricity stored in a battery cell is in. It follows, then, that as the transition progresses, the balance of power in the energy industry will shift from oil and gas production to electricity generation.
We may look back on 2024 as the year the scales tipped. Among the top 260 publicly listed energy companies, utilities’ capital expenditures around the globe were slightly higher this year than oil and gas spending, according to a recent analysis from Boston Consulting Group, and the authors expect the trend to grow through the end of the decade. But it wasn’t a sudden spike in EV adoption or home electrification or some other climate solution that put utility spending in the lead. It was the rise in data centers.
“When we went through all the data, all the 260 companies, it was the data centers that were having the biggest impact, most definitely,” Rebecca Fitz, a partner and director at Boston Consulting Group and lead author of the report, told me. “I’ve been in this sector for a long time, and to have such a rapid change in demand outlook, coupled with quick changes to capex, is a big story.”
Boston Consulting Group Center For Energy Impact
The finding was the surprise headline of an annual report that Fitz’ group has completed for the past three years called “Follow the Capital,” an analysis of what’s driving changes in capital supply and demand in the energy sector using data culled from publicly available sources. Data for prior years comes from regulatory and investor fillings. Future years are modeled using public announcements, plans filed with regulators, and a few conservative assumptions, Fitz told me.
Surging demand for electricity from data centers was perhaps the biggest energy story of 2024, and the trend seemed to accelerate as the year went on. In just the past few months, almost every major tech company has signed an agreement to buy power from a nuclear plant, either reviving formerly shuttered reactors or helping to build new ones. GE Vernova, which manufactures energy generation equipment, reported last week that it had secured contracts for 9 gigawatts’ worth of new gas turbines since its previous quarterly report in October, “tied to both load growth in the U.S and … serving the hyperscaler demand associated with AI.” As the “Follow the Capital” authors were wrapping up this year’s edition in November, they found that U.S. utilities had added $50 billion in planned capex during the third quarter alone, mostly due to data center demand growth.
Data center demand isn’t the only factor playing into the above chart. Though utility spending is definitely up, oil and gas companies are also reining in capex growth in favor of shareholder returns, Fitz told me. But oil and gas also sees the winds changing and is making moves to get into the power business. Two weeks ago, during a panel hosted by the Atlantic Council, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said the company was “looking at possible solutions to build large-scale power generation” that would serve data centers directly, rather than feed into the grid, so that regular electricity ratepayers would not shoulder the costs. “There’s sensitivity to increasing electricity rates for the average person just for the benefit of a few of these tech companies,” he said.
Beating Chevron to the punch, last week ExxonMobil announced that it was “moving fast” on this exact type of project, designing a natural gas plant that would “use carbon capture to remove more than 90% of the associated CO2 emissions” and directly power data centers without connecting to the grid.
“I have no doubt that most of the oil and gas sector is looking at opportunities in this area,” said Fitz.
Though the report covers global companies and spending, the data center demand signal is hyperlocal. Among the 30 largest North American utilities, 65% of demand growth is concentrated within just six of them, the report says. Though the report does not name the companies, Fitz told me that Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio were seeing the most aggressive plans.
Artificial intelligence boosters often argue that this demand pull is a boon for the energy transition. By ushering in the age of electrons, the logic goes, tech companies with deep pockets can drive the first deployments of new clean energy technologies like advanced nuclear and geothermal power plants. These early deployments would then help lower costs and give rise to cheaper, cleaner electricity for the rest of us average energy consumers and our future electric cars, stoves, and water heaters.
But that’s not the only potential outcome. “Follow the Capital” found that when the six utilities most affected by demand growth recently revised their integrated resource plans, they increased the amount of natural gas generation they planned to add from 26% of total new generation to 31%. As GE Vernova reported, orders for gas generators are skyrocketing. “I can’t think of a time that the gas business has had more fun than they’re having right now,” the company’s CEO Scott Strazik said during a recent investor update.
As my colleague Matthew Zeitlin reported, the industry is turning to natural gas plants because they can run 24/7 and they are not as dependent on transmission lines as renewables are, so they can be built faster and more cheaply. Renewables paired with energy storage are only competitive with gas if there’s infrastructure to support it, sources told him.
The age of electrons may be nigh, but whether it helps to stop climate change is a separate question altogether.
On Mayotte’s death toll, the last days of the Biden administration, and subsidence
Current conditions: A rare tornado caused damage in Northern California over the weekend • Severe flooding continues in southern Thailand • It is chilly and cloudy in Washington, D.C., where lawmakers have reportedly decided not to include permitting reform in the year-end spending package after a weekend of tense talks.
Thousands of people could be dead in the small island region of Mayotte after Tropical Cyclone Chido swept through on Saturday. The islands, home to some 300,000, are French territory but located in the Indian Ocean between Madagascar and the east coast of Africa. Sources have reported apocalyptic scenes of destruction, with entire neighborhoods gone and essential infrastructure wiped out. “There is nothing left,” a local hotel owner told CNN. “It’s as if an atomic bomb fell.” The cyclone struck as a Category 4 storm, with 136-mph winds, making it the strongest storm to hit the islands in nearly 100 years. So far 14 people are confirmed to have perished, but that death toll is expected to rise. According to CNN, the worst damage is in slum regions where thousands of undocumented migrants reside.
With the end of President Biden’s term rapidly approaching, his administration is racing to finalize some key environmental decisions and finance deals. For example, the Energy Department’s Loan Programs Office has a handful of “conditional” commitments for clean tech (like a $6.6 billion loan to Rivian, and a $7.5 billion loan for a battery plant built by the Stellantis and Samsung joint venture) that are in limbo and could be nixed by the Trump administration. Officials are “working hard to make the loan guarantees and loan agreements as airtight as possible,” a former policy adviser for the LPO toldBloomberg. Here are a few other decisions to look out for in the coming weeks:
Relatedly, President-elect Trump’s transition team is recommending he “cut off support for electric vehicles and charging stations and to strengthen measures blocking cars, components, and battery materials from China,” Reutersreported, citing a transition document seen by the outlet. Funds for the EV transition would be redirected toward national defense. Such recommendations wouldn’t be entirely surprising, though the team is also suggesting Trump bring in tariffs on all imported battery materials. The $7,500 EV tax credit is also on the chopping block, as are the Biden administration’s tailpipe emissions standards.
The UN COP16 summit on addressing desertification and land degradation concluded over the weekend without producing an agreement on how nations should respond to drought. Representatives from nearly 200 countries attended the two-week-long gathering in Saudi Arabia. Poorer countries had hoped the summit would result in a legally-binding agreement that would require wealthier nations to fund drought resilience in developing countries. “I fear the UNCCD COP16 has suffered the same fate as the biodiversity and climate COPs this year,” Jes Weigelt of European climate think-tank TMG Research toldThe Associated Press. “It failed to deliver.” The next round of these talks will be held in Mongolia in 2026.
Many condos along Miami’s beachfront are sinking at “unexpected” rates, according to a new study published in the journal Earth and Space Science. Between 2016 and 2023, some 35 buildings – including Trump Tower III and Trump International Beach Resorts – subsided by up to three inches. “Almost all the buildings at the coast itself, they’re subsiding,” Falk Amelung, a geophysicist at the University of Miami and an author on the study, told the Miami Herald. There are several factors contributing to the sinking, but experts told the Herald that one could be rising sea levels, which are speeding up the region’s coastal erosion. “The study underscores the need for ongoing monitoring and a deeper understanding of the long-term implications for these structures,” said Farzaneh Aziz Zanjani, the study’s lead author.
“The man who once had the key insight that the way to fight climate change was to make EVs cool now thinks nothing is cooler than getting retweets and likes from the right-wing trolls who consider him their king.” –Paul Waldman writing for Heatmap about how Elon Musk broke bad on climate
Why he did is anybody’s guess. But we’re all about to suffer the consequences.
Donald Trump hasn’t taken office yet, but the quarter of a billion dollars Elon Musk invested in Trump’s victory is already paying off in ways large and small. On Friday, Reuters reported that the Trump transition team is looking to scrap a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration crash-reporting requirement, “a move that could cripple the government’s ability to investigate and regulate the safety of vehicles with automated-driving systems.” Tesla finds this requirement irksome, and lo, it may soon disappear.
In the scope of Musk’s emerging sway over the Trump administration and the course of federal policy in the coming years, it’s a relatively minor story of potentially corrupt influence and the subversion of the public interest. But an even more disturbing picture of Musk’s full priority set is coming into focus.
Musk, the richest human being in history (his net worth now tops $400 billion), may soon exercise a control over government policy unprecedented for a private citizen, which as recently as a year or so ago might have seemed like a net positive for the fight against climate change. Until the relatively immediate present, Musk was rightly counted as a hero of that battle. Whether or not you accept his claim that “I’ve done more for the environment than any single human on Earth,” Musk has certainly done more than anyone to promote the adoption of electric vehicles. And no public figure could — if he wanted — have more ability to convince conservatives in general, and Donald Trump in particular, to accept the reality of climate change and commit to doing something about it than he does.
But that is not what Elon Musk wants. It is becoming clear that in pursuit of his own objectives — money, power, domination over others, personal aggrandizement, and the realization of his dream of making humanity a “multi-planet species” — Musk is content not just to set aside the fight against climate change, but to actively undermine it.
While Musk has not made any grand announcement declaring that he no longer cares about climate, there is considerable evidence to suggest he does not. In a rambling interview with Trump this August, Musk said that his views on the fossil fuel industry are “probably different from what most people would assume.” He explained that “I don’t think we should vilify the oil and gas industry,” and although over time we should move toward sustainable energy, “we still have quite a bit of time … we don’t need to rush and we don’t need to stop farmers from farming or prevent people from having steaks.”
Which is almost exactly what any fossil fuel CEO would say.
It certainly marks a rhetorical shift for someone who once advocated a “popular uprising” against fossil fuel companies. One might object that whatever he says in interviews, he’s still the CEO of America’s largest EV manufacturer. And Tesla no doubt remains a company filled with people committed to combating climate change who see their work as a key part of that effort. The third iteration of the company’s “Master Plan,” released last year, describes what it believes is necessary to “fully electrify the economy and eliminate fossil fuel use.”
But that doesn’t seem to reflect the CEO’s own thinking. The Washington Postreported that earlier this year, Musk killed plans to create an affordable Tesla that could have greatly expanded the reach of EVs in the U.S., opting instead to make further investments in luxury cars and artificial intelligence. (To add insult to injury, Reuters first reported in April that the car had been canceled, but Musk said that the outlet was “lying.”) “The internal deliberations over the so-called Tesla Model 2,” said the Post, “reflect what sources close to Musk describe as a significant shift in the billionaire’s attitude toward climate change.”
That’s apparent in what may be the single most important decision Trump and congressional Republicans will have to make with regard to EVs: whether to kill the $7,500 EV subsidy revived and expanded by the Inflation Reduction Act. If Musk wanted to, he could almost certainly convince Trump that the subsidies ought to remain in place. But he doesn’t; this summer he said on an earnings call that while eliminating the subsidies might cost Tesla some sales, “long term, it probably actually helps” because it would be “devastating for our competitors.” Or as he said in a tweet, “Take away the subsidies. It will only help Tesla.”
In other words, Musk favors a policy change that will reduce overall adoption of EVs, because it will hurt his competition, perhaps driving some of his competitors out of the EV market entirely. Bad for the climate, but good for Elon Musk.
Then we have the rest of the Trump administration’s agenda to roll back climate progress. To date there is zero evidence that Musk has suggested that Trump dial back his “drill, baby, drill” agenda or appoint administration figures who are anything less than fossil fuel enthusiasts. Quite the opposite: When Trump posted on Truth Social that “Any person or company investing ONE BILLION DOLLARS, OR MORE, in the United States of America, will receive fully expedited approvals and permits, including, but in no way limited to, all Environmental approvals,” Musk responded by tweeting, “This is awesome.”
That it isn’t in Trump’s power to single-handedly waive “all Environmental approvals” isn’t the point, so much as the fact that Musk thrills to the idea of the government no longer bothering to enforce environmental laws. While the “Department of Government Efficiency” Trump has tasked Musk with creating is neither a department, nor part of the government, nor devoted to efficiency, it nonetheless stands as a symbol of Musk’s close relationship with Trump and his ability to influence Trump’s decisions, particularly given how little Trump actually cares about policy areas other than immigration and foreign trade. It has become hard to envision Musk acting as anything other than an accelerant on Trump’s worst environmental instincts.
Musk’s shift to the right will continue to have serious national consequences in both government policy and public debate. He bought Twitter in 2022 with the stated intention of removing much of its content moderation in the name of “free speech,” with the predictable result that the renamed X quickly became a sewer of far-right extremism and misinformation of all kinds. As multiple analyses have shown, climate denialism and deceit have proliferated on X, making it one of the premier vectors of influence for those who would thwart efforts to address the climate crisis.
There is no reason to believe that this concerns Musk in any way. The man who once had the key insight that the way to fight climate change was to make EVs cool now thinks nothing is cooler than getting retweets and likes from the right-wing trolls who consider him their king.
At this point, one might even question whether Musk ever cared about climate change, or if concern about warming was just an engine that he realized could make him rich and feed his grandiose dreams of world domination. The answer to that question is: It doesn’t matter. Whatever he might once have thought, Musk has been transformed. He is no longer a force for good in the climate fight; instead, he’ll be one more obstacle to ensuring the future of the planet. If only he didn’t have the ability to do so much damage.