What to Expect from COP29

Current conditions: Outdoor activities are banned in Pakistan’s Punjab province as air pollution worsens • An atmospheric river is hammering the Pacific Northwest • The Taurid meteor shower will peak today and tomorrow.

THE TOP FIVE

1. COP29 kicks off in Azerbaijan

The UN COP29 climate summit starts today in Baku, Azerbaijan. It’s being called “the toughest climate talks in almost a decade,” as countries work to set a new finance target to help developing nations adapt to climate change. In 2022, industrialized nations pledged to provide $100 billion annually for climate finance, and the new goal could run into the trillions of dollars. Clashes are expected over how much money should be paid and by whom, plus the mechanisms for managing and structuring the funding. Donald Trump’s election win looms large at the event, with the world’s largest economy and the second largest greenhouse gas emitter expected to slow climate action under the next administration. Still, COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev said the finance target was the meeting’s top priority. Negotiators are also likely to put the finishing touches on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which calls for the creation of a global carbon credit market. And there will be a big push to get nations to outline their new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), or emissions reduction plans, well ahead of the February deadline.

2. Who’s going to COP29 – and who is not

More than 100 heads of state are expected to be in attendance at COP29, but this year’s event has already been defined by the long list of important people who aren’t attending. Absent are President Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. A bunch of banking bigwigs have also bowed out. So who is going?

• U.S. climate envoy John Podesta, as well as Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), the chair of the Senate Budget Committee, who last week said he would head to Baku to “reassure the international community that large swaths of the U.S. remain committed to steering the planet away from climate catastrophe.”
• Chinese climate spokesperson Liu Zhenmin. There will be pressure on China to contribute to the climate finance pool. “China could step up and take a leadership role on climate now that the U.S. looks likely to relinquish its crown,” Bloomberg reported. “Conversely, it could use Trump’s victory as an excuse for it to take less action to curb fossil fuels.”
• UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband. They will unveil the UK’s NDC and try to steady the ship as U.S. climate commitments wobble.
• Mia Mottley, prime minister of Barbados, who will be “a linchpin for developing countries seeking climate justice in the face of inaction by the worst greenhouse gas emitters,” according to The Guardian.
• Brazil’s environmental minister, Marina Silva. Brazil is host to next year’s COP30. The nation recently upped its climate pledge.
• For the first time ever, the Taliban will be in attendance, as climate change wreaks havoc on Afghanistan.
• EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra; World Bank President Ajay Banga; Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change; UN chief António Guterres.

3. Trump eyes Burgum for ‘energy czar’

President-elect Donald Trump is considering North Dakota’s Republican governor Doug Burgum for a position as “energy czar,” the Financial Times reported. The role would replace that of National Climate Advisor – created by President Biden and currently occupied by Ali Zaidi – and “coordinate Trump’s deregulatory agenda across a patchwork of agencies including the Department of Energy, Department of Interior, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, and Environmental Protection Agency.” North Dakota is a major oil producer, and Burgum is an “oil industry favorite” for the role, the FT said.

4. Fires plague tri-state area amid drought

An 18-year-old New York State parks employee died over the weekend while fighting a fire in Orange County, New York. Dariel Vasquez died when a tree fell and struck him as he was working to clear a wooded area, according to The New York Times. The blaze, which is also burning in Passaic County, New Jersey, has charred at least 3,000 acres and is 10% contained. It’s one of several recent fires in the drought-stricken region. A brush fire ignited in Prospect Park Friday and burned 2 acres. Air quality warnings were in place over the weekend for the tri-state area. Some rain fell on Sunday but didn’t do much to relieve the dry conditions.

5. Climate-related weather losses surpass $2 trillion over 10 years

A recent report from the International Chamber of Commerce found that extreme weather related to climate change has cost the global economy more than $2 trillion over the last 10 years. The biggest losses, totaling about $935 billion, were felt in the U.S. And the costs have been growing faster in more recent years. For example, in 2022 and 2023 alone, the economic damages reached $451 billion, up nearly 20% compared to the annual average of the 8 years that came before. And the number of climate-related extreme weather events between 2000 and 2019 was 83% higher than in the years between 1980 and 2000. “Our findings indicate that without enhanced climate action and mitigation efforts, the economic burden of climate-related extreme weather events will persist and likely grow,” the report said. The ICC is a business organization “championing the global economy as a force for economic growth, job creation and prosperity.”

THE KICKER

“Trump winning again, this time even the popular vote, has thrown radical uncertainty into America’s international standing — particularly when it comes to climate change and the green economy. It’s a golden opportunity for China, if it cares to seize it.” –Ryan Cooper writing for Heatmap