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On a looming storm, Biden’s Climate Week event, and tripling renewables
Current conditions: Hurricane John is bringing dangerous storm surge to Mexico’s Pacific coast • Flash floods and landslides are inundating villages in northern Thailand • Phoenix officials confirmed the city had 113 straight days of temperatures over 100 degrees Fahrenheit this summer, breaking the previous record, set in 1993, of 76 days.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 41 of the state’s 67 counties ahead of a storm that is expected to slam into the state’s Gulf coast Thursday as a Category 3 or maybe even Category 4 hurricane. The executive order activates the Florida National Guard and emergency response teams. “As the system approaches, I'm urging Floridians to finalize their storm prep, monitor weather reports and follow the guidance of local authorities,” DeSantis said. “Stay Safe, Florida.”
AccuWeather
Tropical Storm Nine could strengthen into Hurricane Helene with maximum sustained wind gusts of 111-130 miles per hour, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. It could bring up to 12 inches of rain near the point of landfall, but flooding could happen as far north as the Ohio River Valley. Some parts of the Florida Panhandle could see up to 15 feet of storm surge. “This is going to be a life-threatening storm with dangerous storm surge,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno. “The one factor that is alarming is how incredibly high water temperatures are, which can fuel rapid intensification right along the forecast track of this storm.”
President Biden will speak today at Climate Week NYC, taking the stage at the Bloomberg Global Business forum. His comments will highlight his administration’s climate agenda and clean energy policies and how they are “lowering costs, creating good-paying and union jobs, and reducing harmful emissions,” according to a White House statement. E&E Newsreported that many of Biden’s top energy and environmental officials are out in force, trying to remind everyone that the climate landscape would look very different under a Trump presidency.
Also happening at Climate Week today: The Global Renewables Summit, taking place at the Plaza Hotel. World leaders including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the president of this year’s COP29 summit will be expected to speak about the global goal to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. The International Energy Agency released a report today concluding that the goal, which was set at last year’s COP28, is within reach but only if countries ramp up transmission expansion and dramatically increase energy storage. “Further international cooperation is vital to deliver fit-for-purpose grids, sufficient energy storage and faster electrification, which are integral to move clean energy transitions quickly and securely,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. Another new report, from the International Renewable Energy Agency, found that 81% of the new renewable energy capacity added last year was cheaper than fossil fuels.
Meanwhile, at the U.N. General Assembly, leaders of developing nations issued a plea for the world’s developed countries to stop paying “lip service” and lead the way on emissions cuts and climate finance.
The non-profit research foundation First Street released a new report yesterday examining the growing financial risks associated with climate disasters. Using its climate risk financial modeling tool, First Street found that 57 U.S. banks with a total of $627 billion in real estate loans could face material financial risk. Those loans represent nearly 11% of all loans in the country. Regional and community banks are especially vulnerable “given the concentrated nature of their lending portfolios.”
“Through climate risk financial modeling, we are able to get the first glimpse of the financial institutions which have material financial risk from their exposure to the physical impacts of climate change,” said Dr. Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications at First Street. “While this risk is material by definition, banks are finally in a position where they can proactively manage these risks to dramatically change their risk profile over time.”
The state of California is suing ExxonMobil, accusing the oil giant of lying about plastic being recyclable and overpromising on its “advanced recycling” technology. “We are asking the court to hold ExxonMobil fully accountable for its role in actively creating and exacerbating the plastics pollution crisis through its campaign of deception,” California Attorney General Rob Bonta said. “The case opens a new front in the legal battles against oil and gas companies over climate and environmental issues,” explainedThe New York Times. But legal experts say the state will face an uphill battle in the suit.
“Even in states where coal makes up a large share of the power grid — such as West Virginia, Wyoming, or Missouri — EVs produce half as much CO2 as gasoline vehicle. That’s because EVs are much more energy efficiency than internal combustion vehicles. So even though coal is a dirtier energy source than gasoline or diesel, EVs need to far less of it (in the form of electricity) to drive an additional mile.” –Robinson Meyer explains why switching to an EV matters so much for the climate, as part of Heatmap’s new Decarbonize Your Life special report.
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The Loan Programs Office is good for more than just nuclear funding.
That China has a whip hand over the rare earths mining and refining industry is one of the few things Washington can agree on.
That’s why Alex Jacquez, who worked on industrial policy for Joe Biden’s National Economic Council, found it “astounding”when he read in the Washington Post this week that the White House was trying to figure out on the fly what to do about China restricting exports of rare earth metals in response to President Trump’s massive tariffs on the country’s imports.
Rare earth metals have a wide variety of applications, including for magnets in medical technology, defense, and energy productssuch as wind turbines and electric motors.
Jacquez told me there has been “years of work, including by the first Trump administration, that has pointed to this exact case as the worst-case scenario that could happen in an escalation with China.” It stands to reason, then, that experienced policymakers in the Trump administration might have been mindful of forestalling this when developing their tariff plan. But apparently not.
“The lines of attack here are numerous,” Jacquez said. “The fact that the National Economic Council and others are apparently just thinking about this for the first time is pretty shocking.”
And that’s not the only thing the Trump administration is doing that could hamper American access to rare earths and critical minerals.
Though China still effectively controls the global pipeline for most critical minerals (a broader category that includes rare earths as well as more commonly known metals and minerals such as lithium and cobalt), the U.S. has been at work for at least the past five years developing its own domestic supply chain. Much of that work has fallen to the Department of Energy, whose Loan Programs Office has funded mining and processing facilities, and whose Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains hasfunded and overseen demonstration projects for rare earths and critical minerals mining and refining.
The LPO is in line for dramatic cuts, as Heatmap has reported. So, too, are other departments working on rare earths, including the Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains. In its zeal to slash the federal government, the Trump administration may have to start from scratch in its efforts to build up a rare earths supply chain.
The Department of Energy did not reply to a request for comment.
This vulnerability to China has been well known in Washington for years, including by the first Trump administration.
“Our dependence on one country, the People's Republic of China (China), for multiple critical minerals is particularly concerning,” then-President Trump said in a 2020 executive order declaring a “national emergency” to deal with “our Nation's undue reliance on critical minerals.” At around the same time, the Loan Programs Office issued guidance “stating a preference for projects related to critical mineral” for applicants for the office’s funding, noting that “80 percent of its rare earth elements directly from China.” Using the Defense Production Act, the Trump administration also issued a grant to the company operating America's sole rare earth mine, MP Materials, to help fund a processing facility at the site of its California mine.
The Biden administration’s work on rare earths and critical minerals was almost entirely consistent with its predecessor’s, just at a greater scale and more focused on energy. About a month after taking office, President Bidenissued an executive order calling for, among other things, a Defense Department report “identifying risks in the supply chain for critical minerals and other identified strategic materials, including rare earth elements.”
Then as part of the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, the Biden administration increased funding for LPO, which supported a number of critical minerals projects. It also funneled more money into MP Materials — including a $35 million contract from the Department of Defense in 2022 for the California project. In 2024, it awarded the company a competitive tax credit worth $58.5 million to help finance construction of its neodymium-iron-boron magnet factory in Texas. That facilitybegan commercial operation earlier this year.
The finished magnets will be bought by General Motors for its electric vehicles. But even operating at full capacity, it won’t be able to do much to replace China’s production. The MP Metals facility is projected to produce 1,000 tons of the magnets per year.China produced 138,000 tons of NdFeB magnets in 2018.
The Trump administration is not averse to direct financial support for mining and minerals projects, but they seem to want to do it a different way. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum has proposed using a sovereign wealth fund to invest in critical mineral mines. There is one big problem with that plan, however: the U.S. doesn’t have one (for the moment, at least).
“LPO can invest in mining projects now,” Jacquez told me. “Cutting 60% of their staff and the experts who work on this is not going to give certainty to the business community if they’re looking to invest in a mine that needs some government backstop.”
And while the fate of the Inflation Reduction Act remains very much in doubt, the subsidies it provided for electric vehicles, solar, and wind, along with domestic content requirements have been a major source of demand for critical minerals mining and refining projects in the United States.
“It’s not something we’re going to solve overnight,” Jacquez said. “But in the midst of a maximalist trade with China, it is something we will have to deal with on an overnight basis, unless and until there’s some kind of de-escalation or agreement.”
A conversation with VDE Americas CEO Brian Grenko.
This week’s Q&A is about hail. Last week, we explained how and why hail storm damage in Texas may have helped galvanize opposition to renewable energy there. So I decided to reach out to Brian Grenko, CEO of renewables engineering advisory firm VDE Americas, to talk about how developers can make sure their projects are not only resistant to hail but also prevent that sort of pushback.
The following conversation has been lightly edited for clarity.
Hiya Brian. So why’d you get into the hail issue?
Obviously solar panels are made with glass that can allow the sunlight to come through. People have to remember that when you install a project, you’re financing it for 35 to 40 years. While the odds of you getting significant hail in California or Arizona are low, it happens a lot throughout the country. And if you think about some of these large projects, they may be in the middle of nowhere, but they are taking hundreds if not thousands of acres of land in some cases. So the chances of them encountering large hail over that lifespan is pretty significant.
We partnered with one of the country’s foremost experts on hail and developed a really interesting technology that can digest radar data and tell folks if they’re developing a project what the [likelihood] will be if there’s significant hail.
Solar panels can withstand one-inch hail – a golfball size – but once you get over two inches, that’s when hail starts breaking solar panels. So it’s important to understand, first and foremost, if you’re developing a project, you need to know the frequency of those events. Once you know that, you need to start thinking about how to design a system to mitigate that risk.
The government agencies that look over land use, how do they handle this particular issue? Are there regulations in place to deal with hail risk?
The regulatory aspects still to consider are about land use. There are authorities with jurisdiction at the federal, state, and local level. Usually, it starts with the local level and with a use permit – a conditional use permit. The developer goes in front of the township or the city or the county, whoever has jurisdiction of wherever the property is going to go. That’s where it gets political.
To answer your question about hail, I don’t know if any of the [authority having jurisdictions] really care about hail. There are folks out there that don’t like solar because it’s an eyesore. I respect that – I don’t agree with that, per se, but I understand and appreciate it. There’s folks with an agenda that just don’t want solar.
So okay, how can developers approach hail risk in a way that makes communities more comfortable?
The bad news is that solar panels use a lot of glass. They take up a lot of land. If you have hail dropping from the sky, that’s a risk.
The good news is that you can design a system to be resilient to that. Even in places like Texas, where you get large hail, preparing can mean the difference between a project that is destroyed and a project that isn’t. We did a case study about a project in the East Texas area called Fighting Jays that had catastrophic damage. We’re very familiar with the area, we work with a lot of clients, and we found three other projects within a five-mile radius that all had minimal damage. That simple decision [to be ready for when storms hit] can make the complete difference.
And more of the week’s big fights around renewable energy.
1. Long Island, New York – We saw the face of the resistance to the war on renewable energy in the Big Apple this week, as protestors rallied in support of offshore wind for a change.
2. Elsewhere on Long Island – The city of Glen Cove is on the verge of being the next New York City-area community with a battery storage ban, discussing this week whether to ban BESS for at least one year amid fire fears.
3. Garrett County, Maryland – Fight readers tell me they’d like to hear a piece of good news for once, so here’s this: A 300-megawatt solar project proposed by REV Solar in rural Maryland appears to be moving forward without a hitch.
4. Stark County, Ohio – The Ohio Public Siting Board rejected Samsung C&T’s Stark Solar project, citing “consistent opposition to the project from each of the local government entities and their impacted constituents.”
5. Ingham County, Michigan – GOP lawmakers in the Michigan State Capitol are advancing legislation to undo the state’s permitting primacy law, which allows developers to evade municipalities that deny projects on unreasonable grounds. It’s unlikely the legislation will become law.
6. Churchill County, Nevada – Commissioners have upheld the special use permit for the Redwood Materials battery storage project we told you about last week.