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On a looming storm, Biden’s Climate Week event, and tripling renewables

Current conditions: Hurricane John is bringing dangerous storm surge to Mexico’s Pacific coast • Flash floods and landslides are inundating villages in northern Thailand • Phoenix officials confirmed the city had 113 straight days of temperatures over 100 degrees Fahrenheit this summer, breaking the previous record, set in 1993, of 76 days.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 41 of the state’s 67 counties ahead of a storm that is expected to slam into the state’s Gulf coast Thursday as a Category 3 or maybe even Category 4 hurricane. The executive order activates the Florida National Guard and emergency response teams. “As the system approaches, I'm urging Floridians to finalize their storm prep, monitor weather reports and follow the guidance of local authorities,” DeSantis said. “Stay Safe, Florida.”

Tropical Storm Nine could strengthen into Hurricane Helene with maximum sustained wind gusts of 111-130 miles per hour, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. It could bring up to 12 inches of rain near the point of landfall, but flooding could happen as far north as the Ohio River Valley. Some parts of the Florida Panhandle could see up to 15 feet of storm surge. “This is going to be a life-threatening storm with dangerous storm surge,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno. “The one factor that is alarming is how incredibly high water temperatures are, which can fuel rapid intensification right along the forecast track of this storm.”
President Biden will speak today at Climate Week NYC, taking the stage at the Bloomberg Global Business forum. His comments will highlight his administration’s climate agenda and clean energy policies and how they are “lowering costs, creating good-paying and union jobs, and reducing harmful emissions,” according to a White House statement. E&E News reported that many of Biden’s top energy and environmental officials are out in force, trying to remind everyone that the climate landscape would look very different under a Trump presidency.
Also happening at Climate Week today: The Global Renewables Summit, taking place at the Plaza Hotel. World leaders including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the president of this year’s COP29 summit will be expected to speak about the global goal to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. The International Energy Agency released a report today concluding that the goal, which was set at last year’s COP28, is within reach but only if countries ramp up transmission expansion and dramatically increase energy storage. “Further international cooperation is vital to deliver fit-for-purpose grids, sufficient energy storage and faster electrification, which are integral to move clean energy transitions quickly and securely,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. Another new report, from the International Renewable Energy Agency, found that 81% of the new renewable energy capacity added last year was cheaper than fossil fuels.
Meanwhile, at the U.N. General Assembly, leaders of developing nations issued a plea for the world’s developed countries to stop paying “lip service” and lead the way on emissions cuts and climate finance.
The non-profit research foundation First Street released a new report yesterday examining the growing financial risks associated with climate disasters. Using its climate risk financial modeling tool, First Street found that 57 U.S. banks with a total of $627 billion in real estate loans could face material financial risk. Those loans represent nearly 11% of all loans in the country. Regional and community banks are especially vulnerable “given the concentrated nature of their lending portfolios.”
“Through climate risk financial modeling, we are able to get the first glimpse of the financial institutions which have material financial risk from their exposure to the physical impacts of climate change,” said Dr. Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications at First Street. “While this risk is material by definition, banks are finally in a position where they can proactively manage these risks to dramatically change their risk profile over time.”
The state of California is suing ExxonMobil, accusing the oil giant of lying about plastic being recyclable and overpromising on its “advanced recycling” technology. “We are asking the court to hold ExxonMobil fully accountable for its role in actively creating and exacerbating the plastics pollution crisis through its campaign of deception,” California Attorney General Rob Bonta said. “The case opens a new front in the legal battles against oil and gas companies over climate and environmental issues,” explained The New York Times. But legal experts say the state will face an uphill battle in the suit.
“Even in states where coal makes up a large share of the power grid — such as West Virginia, Wyoming, or Missouri — EVs produce half as much CO2 as gasoline vehicle. That’s because EVs are much more energy efficiency than internal combustion vehicles. So even though coal is a dirtier energy source than gasoline or diesel, EVs need to far less of it (in the form of electricity) to drive an additional mile.” –Robinson Meyer explains why switching to an EV matters so much for the climate, as part of Heatmap’s new Decarbonize Your Life special report.
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France’s deadliest heat wave since 2003 killed more than 2,700 people — and possibly as many as 5,700.
More than 5,700 excess deaths were recorded in France during this summer’s record-breaking heat wave, the country’s health agency announced today. That makes the event — which ran, by the official reckoning, from June 17 to July 2 — the country’s deadliest heat wave in more than 20 years.
That’s in line with other estimates we’ve heard. EuroMOMO, a network of European public health agencies that track excess mortality, found that the continent saw more than 10,000 excess deaths during the same period. Roughly 90% of those victims were older than 65, it said. (France’s cohort seems similar: Adults older than 75 made up about two-thirds of the victims, the government said.)
These numbers are staggering — and much larger than some astute Heatmap readers might anticipate. If you read my colleague Jeva Lange’s piece on why it’s so hard to estimate heat deaths last week, she cited a much smaller estimate: Roughly 2,700 died in France during the most recent heat wave. That tally came from Christopher Callahan, an Indiana University scientist who studies climate change’s economic and social costs.
Why is there such a gap between the figures? I emailed Callahan to find out. He shared a few thoughts. First, he uses a different (and theoretically more rigorous) method than the French government: “Our approach uses a statistical relationship between temperature and mortality to explicitly quantify how many additional deaths are associated with a given day’s temperature,” he wrote. “France’s report of excess deaths is just based on how many more people died in late June compared to previous Junes - but we don’t know if those people died because of the heat or some other factor.” (Carbon Brief recently published a Q&A on these varying approaches.)
That might mean his estimate is right, in which case France has misidentified roughly nearly 3,000 deaths. But it could also mean his model, which is trained on data from 2004 to 2019, is “missing something,” he said, like a post-Covid change to public health risk. Last year, Callahan and his colleagues used a similar model to estimate deaths from France’s worst-ever heatwave, a 2003 episode that overwhelmed morgues and killed about 16,000 people. Even 23 years ago, global warming helped make that disaster larger than it needed to be: Some 6,000 of those deaths were due to climate change, their paper found.
Either estimate of the 2026 heat wave, of course, is shattering. As Jeva wrote, even the lower figure would mean the 2026 heat wave killed as many people as died in three years of French homicides. But the divergence in estimates tells us something else too: Even as climate change breaks records and alters our world, we’re never going to quite agree on where it ends and normal randomness begins.
The AI data center boom does not seem close to ending. Google’s parent company, Alphabet, announced its second quarter results this evening, and it beat Wall Street’s expectations, nearly quadrupling its profit on a year-over-year basis. Among the drivers: Its cloud business grew 82% compared to the same quarter last year. (As I’ve written, that rapid growth is helping to turn Alphabet and other hyperscalers into light industrial firms.)
The company’s AI bets seem to be paying off so far — so Google is now planning on spending even more on data centers, energy infrastructure and AI development this year than it once anticipated. It raised its estimates of 2026 capital expenditure to $195 billion to $205 billion, which is above earlier projections and twice as much as it spent in the same category last year. 2027 could be even bigger, it signaled. The company’s shares fell slightly on the news in after-hours trading, but from an energy and climate wonk perspective, the message is clear: For now, the AI demand surge transforming the power sector — and the real economy — continues to chug along.