Hurricane Milton Takes Aim at Florida

Current conditions: Rescue teams have arrived in Bosnia after intense rain triggered flooding and landslides that killed at least 18 people • Phoenix marked its 13th straight day of record heat Sunday • There are three storms churning in the Atlantic simultaneously, which has never happened before this far into hurricane season.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Hurricane-battered Florida braces for another dangerous storm

Hurricane Milton is intensifying rapidly in the Atlantic and is expected to become a major hurricane later today. Forecasters believe it will make landfall near Tampa Bay in Florida by Wednesday, less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene tore through the area. It could bring a foot of rain, possible more, and 10-15 feet of storm surge. “We expect the storm surge to be worse than what many people experienced during Helene,” said AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva. “This storm has the potential to create a catastrophic storm surge that no one in Tampa has seen in their lifetime.”

AccuWeather

More than 15 million people across southern and central Florida are under flood watches, and a state of emergency has been declared in 51 of the state’s counties. Kevin Guthrie, executive director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management said the state was preparing for “the largest evacuation that we have seen, most likely since 2017, Hurricane Irma.” In a bleak warning, Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody said those who choose not to evacuate should “write your name in permanent marker on your arm, so that people know who you are when they get to you afterwards.”

2. Oil giants reportedly want Trump to keep the IRA

Some large fossil fuel companies have urged Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump not to gut the Inflation Reduction Act if he comes into power again in November, The Wall Street Journal reported. The IRA, President Biden’s landmark climate law, provides tax credits for renewable energy and carbon capture projects, including many that these oil giants have heavily invested in. According to the Journal, executives from Exxon Mobil, Phillips 66, and Occidental Petroleum have been in discussions with the Trump campaign and congressional allies to make the case for the law, which Trump has called the “Green New Scam” and vowed to roll back. Political strategists told the Journal that Trump may try to “rebrand” the IRA given its popularity among Republican states. A recent report found that nearly 60% of the projects supported by the IRA are based in Republican congressional districts.

3. Meanwhile, at BP...

BP has dropped its ambitious 2030 plan to reduce its oil and gas production by 40% and shift to renewables, three sources told Reuters. The company made the commitment in 2020, and had already watered it down last year. Now it has reportedly abandoned the plan entirely and will focus on new investments to increase oil and gas output. Other oil giants including Shell have also walked back their energy transition goals.

Tangentially related: Fossil fuel company Equinor announced this morning it had acquired a 9.8% stake in wind energy giant Orsted. That makes Equinor the firm’s second largest shareholder, behind the Danish government.

4. Mexico’s Sheinbaum reiterates focus on ramping up renewables in 1st speech

In case you missed it: Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, pledged last week to “boost renewable energies” to a 45% share of the country’s total energy mix by 2030. Sheinbaum, who was inaugurated on Tuesday, is a climate scientist, and her ascension has raised hopes among environmentalists that Mexico could ramp up climate action. Sheinbaum made many promises during her campaign but analysts have been skeptical of their staying power because she also promised to carry on the legacy of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who doubled down on fossil fuels. But the strong words during Sheinbaum’s first speech as president “marks a sharp departure” from López Obrador, noted The Associated Press. “The terms ‘sustainability’ or ‘renewable energy’ really never appeared” in his policies, one expert commented. “He didn’t use the term in any speech, in any document. And she has been using it all the time.” Sheinbaum promised to soon unveil her energy transition program focused on “the reduction of greenhouse gases that cause climate change.” Mexico is the only G20 nation that does not have a net zero target.

5. WMO water report shows a hydrological cycle in chaos

The World Meteorological Organization published its 2023 State of Global Water Resources report today. It found that more than half of the world’s “river catchments” – watersheds or drainage basins – saw unusual levels of water flow last year. Mostly, there was less water than normal, with “large territories” of North, Central, and South America especially dry and many river flows falling to all-time lows. But in some places, like the Horn of Africa, the Philippines, and the United Kingdom, there was much more water than normal. These extremes – drought in some places and extreme flooding in others – were reflected in the regional soil moisture and terrestrial water levels. Glaciers lost more than 600 gigatons of water last year, the largest loss registered in the last 50 years. “Water is the canary in the coalmine of climate change,” WMO secretary general, Celeste Saulo, told The Guardian. “As a result of rising temperatures, the hydrological cycle has accelerated. It has also become more erratic and unpredictable, and we are facing growing problems of either too much or too little water. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture which is conducive to heavy rainfall. More rapid evaporation and drying of soils worsen drought conditions.”

THE KICKER

“In the U.S., there is a decision being made now – and I’m not a part of it – as to whether to stop making pure ICE for the U.S. market. Just the fact that we’re thinking of that means that, OK, it must be close.” –Gill Pratt, Toyota’s chief scientist, speaking to Bloomberg about the future of the internal combustion engine.