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On a dangerous storm front, New Jersey’s offshore wind farm, and the Mauna Loa Observatory

Current conditions: Much of the southern Plains remain at risk for extreme fire weather today and tomorrow • A month’s worth of rain fell over six hours in Florence, Italy • It’s about 50 degrees Fahrenheit and cloudy in Dublin for the annual St. Patrick’s Day parade.
At least 40 people died in severe storms that ripped across the Midwest and South over the weekend. Missouri recorded the most fatalities, with 12 people known to have died in tornadoes that caused “staggering” damage. In Oklahoma, nearly 300 buildings were destroyed in an eruption of wildfires fueled by dry conditions and strong winds. Mark Goeller, director of Oklahoma Forestry Services, called the blazes “historic” and said he had never seen anything like them. Dust storms in Kansas and Texas caused deadly highway pile-ups.
The U.S. is emerging from a pretty warm and dry winter. Kansas, Texas, and Oklahoma are all experiencing drought conditions. Other states hit hard in the wall of storms include Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, and Louisiana. The system is moving east now, but another wave of dangerous weather is right behind it


Plans to build New Jersey’s first offshore wind farm are in trouble after the federal Environmental Appeals Board invalidated a key air pollution permit for the site at the request of the Environmental Protection Agency. The permit was granted back in September, but some local residents protested, and the EPA asked the board to allow it to review the project’s environmental impacts in line with President Trump’s executive order pausing all wind permits. “Atlantic Shores is disappointed by the EPA’s decision to pull back its fully executed permit as regulatory certainty is critical to deploying major energy projects,” the project’s developer told Bloomberg.
Heatmap’s Jael Holzman has been warning for months that the Atlantic Shores site could be vulnerable to permitting shakeups. In January she said the project was “on deathwatch” after Shell announced it would pull out of its 50-50 joint venture with EDF Renewables to develop the wind farm.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who was sworn in on Friday, announced that one of his first moves will be to eliminate the country’s consumer carbon tax. The policy, which has been in place since 2019, made consumers pay an extra fee (offset by rebates) to use fossil fuels, but Carney believes this unfairly punishes cash-strapped consumers rather than big corporate polluters. He has proposed introducing more financial incentives to encourage people to invest in things like energy efficiency upgrades and electric vehicles. “This will make a difference to hard-pressed Canadians, but it is part of a much bigger set of measures that this government is taking to ensure that we fight against climate change, that our companies are competitive and the country moves forward,” Carney said. The move may give Carney and his Liberal Party a better chance in the upcoming general election: The carbon tax has been a “a potent point of attack” from Conservatives in recent years.
The office that manages one of the most important projects tracking levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases could have its lease terminated as part of sweeping cost-cutting measures by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. The NOAA office in Hilo, Hawaii, houses the Mauna Loa Observatory, which measures carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere and charts them onto the Keeling Curve. The measurements are “among the most reliable and sound data on greenhouse gas concentrations because the Mauna Loa Observatory is so far from the influences of any major pollution sources,” according to The Washington Post. The observatory itself isn’t being targeted, but it is run by the Hilo lab’s staff, so an office closure would threaten operations at Mauna Loa.
Closing arguments will begin today in a case that could ruin the environmental advocacy group Greenpeace. The company that operates the Dakota Access Pipeline, Energy Transfer, accuses Greenpeace of coordinating disruptive protests over the (now operational) pipeline’s construction in 2016 and 2017, and seeks $300 million in damages, an amount that could bankrupt the activist group. Greenpeace insists Energy Transfer has no evidence to support its claims, and that the protests were mostly organized by Native American groups. The group says the lawsuit is a critical threat to free speech and peaceful protest rights.
“I think anger can be a positive thing, but it’s the loss of hope, even if it’s marginal, that is truly, truly dangerous to this movement.”
–Rebecca Evans, sustainability director for the city of Ithaca, New York, on how cities are navigating the chaos of Trump 2.0
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France’s deadliest heat wave since 2003 killed more than 2,700 people — and possibly as many as 5,700.
More than 5,700 excess deaths were recorded in France during this summer’s record-breaking heat wave, the country’s health agency announced today. That makes the event — which ran, by the official reckoning, from June 17 to July 2 — the country’s deadliest heat wave in more than 20 years.
That’s in line with other estimates we’ve heard. EuroMOMO, a network of European public health agencies that track excess mortality, found that the continent saw more than 10,000 excess deaths during the same period. Roughly 90% of those victims were older than 65, it said. (France’s cohort seems similar: Adults older than 75 made up about two-thirds of the victims, the government said.)
These numbers are staggering — and much larger than some astute Heatmap readers might anticipate. If you read my colleague Jeva Lange’s piece on why it’s so hard to estimate heat deaths last week, she cited a much smaller estimate: Roughly 2,700 died in France during the most recent heat wave. That tally came from Christopher Callahan, an Indiana University scientist who studies climate change’s economic and social costs.
Why is there such a gap between the figures? I emailed Callahan to find out. He shared a few thoughts. First, he uses a different (and theoretically more rigorous) method than the French government: “Our approach uses a statistical relationship between temperature and mortality to explicitly quantify how many additional deaths are associated with a given day’s temperature,” he wrote. “France’s report of excess deaths is just based on how many more people died in late June compared to previous Junes - but we don’t know if those people died because of the heat or some other factor.” (Carbon Brief recently published a Q&A on these varying approaches.)
That might mean his estimate is right, in which case France has misidentified roughly nearly 3,000 deaths. But it could also mean his model, which is trained on data from 2004 to 2019, is “missing something,” he said, like a post-Covid change to public health risk. Last year, Callahan and his colleagues used a similar model to estimate deaths from France’s worst-ever heatwave, a 2003 episode that overwhelmed morgues and killed about 16,000 people. Even 23 years ago, global warming helped make that disaster larger than it needed to be: Some 6,000 of those deaths were due to climate change, their paper found.
Either estimate of the 2026 heat wave, of course, is shattering. As Jeva wrote, even the lower figure would mean the 2026 heat wave killed as many people as died in three years of French homicides. But the divergence in estimates tells us something else too: Even as climate change breaks records and alters our world, we’re never going to quite agree on where it ends and normal randomness begins.
The AI data center boom does not seem close to ending. Google’s parent company, Alphabet, announced its second quarter results this evening, and it beat Wall Street’s expectations, nearly quadrupling its profit on a year-over-year basis. Among the drivers: Its cloud business grew 82% compared to the same quarter last year. (As I’ve written, that rapid growth is helping to turn Alphabet and other hyperscalers into light industrial firms.)
The company’s AI bets seem to be paying off so far — so Google is now planning on spending even more on data centers, energy infrastructure and AI development this year than it once anticipated. It raised its estimates of 2026 capital expenditure to $195 billion to $205 billion, which is above earlier projections and twice as much as it spent in the same category last year. 2027 could be even bigger, it signaled. The company’s shares fell slightly on the news in after-hours trading, but from an energy and climate wonk perspective, the message is clear: For now, the AI demand surge transforming the power sector — and the real economy — continues to chug along.