AM Briefing
The Ghosting of Shell
On Arctic drilling, BYD’s drop, and Democrats’ timid embrace of nuclear recycling
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On Arctic drilling, BYD’s drop, and Democrats’ timid embrace of nuclear recycling
On permitting reform optimism, GM layoffs, and LA’s H2 conversion
On global emissions, Bill Gates on Chinese nuclear, and a geothermal breakthrough
On EV investments hitting the brakes, Google’s nuclear restart, and a new data center consensus
On Tesla’s profit plunge, Josh Shapiro’s battery win, and TVA staying public
Current conditions: Tropical Storm Melissa is now forecast to strengthen into a hurricane, with the potential to dump 30 inches of rain over parts of the Caribbean and blow winds of up to 50 miles per hour • Waves brought on by Tropical Storm Fengshen are big enough to rip up sidewalks in Vietnam • Myanmar broke an October heat record with temperatures of nearly 98 degrees Fahrenheit in the southeastern resort town of Kyeikkhame.
 
Rhode Island Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, the ranking Democrat on the Environment and Public Works Committee, threatened to withhold votes on permitting reforms he endorsed unless the Trump administration backs off what Heatmap’s Jael Holzman dubbed the “total war on wind.” At an unrelated hearing on Wednesday, Whitehouse said that “unless these illegal acts stop and unless offshore wind is included, there will be no permitting deal,” Politico reporter Josh Siegel reported on X. The remarks came two days after Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said the administration would not halt its attempts to block construction of offshore turbines in exchange for a bipartisan bill to overhaul federal permitting. “I hadn’t thought about the idea of trading something that makes sense for everybody in America for something that makes no sense — and that’s sort of how I view offshore wind,” Burgum said at an American Petroleum Institute event.
As I wrote in yesterday’s newsletter, US Wind warned in federal court this week that, if the administration wins its court case to revoke the project’s construction and operating permits, the Baltimore-based developer will likely go bankrupt. While Secretary of Energy Chris Wright dismissed the wind assault as a “one-off exception, or one-off complication,” the oil industry doesn’t see it that way. As I wrote earlier this month, Shell’s top U.S. executive spoke forcefully against the administration’s anti-wind crusade, warning that Democrats could use the precedents being set against oil and gas companies in the future. That isn’t slowing the administration’s plans to expand offshore oil drilling, however. A document leaked to the Houston Chronicle this week shows that the White House aims to open broad swaths of both the east and west coasts to offshore drilling, months after the administration rescinded designations for millions of acres of federal waters to serve for seaborne wind turbine development.
Tesla’s profit tanked 37% to $1.4 billion from a year earlier despite a revenue hike of 12% to $28.1 billion, the company reported in its latest quarterly earnings Wednesday evening. The automaker sold more cars in the last quarter than it did in the same period a year prior but still lost money on price cuts and low-interest loans. Elon Musk’s electric automaker rolled out stripped-down versions of its Model Y sport utility vehicle and its Model 3 sedan earlier this month, effectively matching the prices that buying an entry-level Tesla came out to before Trump rescinded the $7,500 federal tax credit for battery-powered cars last month. “In other words, you can still buy a Tesla in the $35,000 to $40,000 range,” Andrew Moseman wrote in Heatmap. “It just won’t be as good a Tesla as you used to be able to get for the money.”
Meanwhile, at the opposite end of the market, Tesla rival Rivian’s micromobility spinoff, Also, debuted a product meant to capture a share of the luxury segment that wants a $4,500 electric bicycle.
Last week, the Department of Energy confirmed plans to revoke $700 million in grants to American battery manufacturers, as I reported here on Monday. This week, Pennsylvania made up for a small part of that lost funding. Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro announced plans to give Eos Energy Enterprises roughly $22 million in grants and capital funding to lure the nation’s leading manufacturer of zinc-based battery storage systems to relocate its headquarters from Edison, New Jersey, to Pittsburgh, and open a new factory in Allegheny County. Combined with the money the company is spending, the total investment will come to just under $353 million and create 735 new permanent positions. “Pennsylvania is positioning itself at the forefront of America’s energy transition — enabling us to bring America’s battery to scale,” Joe Mastrangelo, the chief executive of Eos Energy, said in a statement.
Meanwhile, in another electorally crucial northern state, OpenAI announced plans for yet another data center in its Stargate network. On Wednesday, the ChatGPT maker and software giant Oracle unveiled plans for a data center campus outside Milwaukee in Port Washington, Wisconsin, to be built with hyperscale developer Vantage Data Centers.
Trump’s nominees to serve in the empty seats on the Tennessee Valley Authority’s board of directors all pledged to oppose any privatization effort of the nation’s largest government-owned utility, the Chattanooga Times Free Press reported. Selling off all or portions of the TVA, a remnant of the New Deal-era electrification of the South, have come up frequently since the mid 20th century, including under former President Barack Obama. Trump revived the debate in his first administration, proposing to sell off the TVA’s transmission and distribution business, but the effort went nowhere. In July, the White House abruptly moved to fire the remaining three members of the TVA’s board that Trump hadn’t yet dismissed unless they forced out the chief executive. The move was interpreted by insiders at the TVA as the first step toward a new privatization effort. But outcry over the potential to disrupt what has been a steady source of cheap electricity for the region appears to have tempered those ambitions.
An ounce of beef requires roughly 7,600 times more energy and 1.1 million times more water than a single prompt on ChaptGPT, a University of California academic recently calculated. Yet nearly two-and-a-half times more Americans are concerned about the environmental impacts of artificial intelligence than about meat production, according to a poll released Thursday morning by the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Of the 72% of Americans who expressed concern about AI’s environmental footprint, 41% said they were “very or extremely” concerned. That exceeds how many respondents said the same thing about cryptocurrency (29%), meat production (29%), and air travel (23%.) “Looking ahead, Americans are more likely to believe AI will be harmful rather than helpful to society, the economy, and the environment in the next 10 years,” the pollsters explained in a press release, “but they are divided on its impact on them personally.”
The findings mirror Heatmap Pro’s own survey results from August, which found that just 44% of Americans would welcome a data center nearby.
Americans are kings in our own castles, while Germans bow to a Kafkaesque bureaucracy even in their own homes … right? Not when it comes to installing batteries and solar panels on our own roofs. Germans just have to fill out a simple two-page application. Americans? Depending on where we live, we have to fill out all kinds of physical paperwork, get multiple rounds of approval from zoning officials and homeowners associations, and navigate disparate systems at the neighborhood, county, and state levels. That’s according to a new analysis that the group Permit Power shared with me exclusively for Heatmap. The report proposed axing that red tape. Doing so could dramatically lower the cost of rooftop solar and batteries, and ultimately save Americans more than $1 trillion — yes, with a T — over the next quarter-century.
On Japan’s atomic ‘Iron Lady,’ Electra’s supercharge, and a mineral deal Down Under
Current conditions: Tropical Storm Melissa is barreling toward Haiti and Jamaica carrying a payload of as much as 16 inches of rain for certain parts of the Caribbean • A coldfront is set to drop temperatures by as much as 15 degrees Fahrenheit over the Great Lakes states • Temperatures in the French overseas territory of Juan de Nova hit nearly 94 degrees Tuesday, the hottest October day in the history of the French Southern Territories.
US Wind told a federal court that it will go bankrupt if President Donald Trump succeeds in revoking its building permits. The Baltimore-based developer testified on the fate of its 2.2-gigawatt Maryland Offshore Wind project in response to a lawsuit brought by the Department of the Interior and the City Council of Ocean City, Maryland. “If the plan is lost, surrendered, forfeited, revoked or otherwise not maintained in full force and effect, US Wind’s investors have the right to declare US Wind to be in default on the repayment of the company’s debt and/or refuse to extend the additional financing needed to complete construction of the project,” the company told the court, according to an update on the energy consultancy TGS’ 4C Offshore news website. “Either of these consequences could result in US Wind’s bankruptcy.”
The Trump administration’s “total war on wind,” as Heatmap’s Jael Holzman described the multi-agency onslaught against offshore projects, has drawn a backlash in recent months. As I reported last month in this newsletter, a federal judge temporarily stayed Trump’s stop-work order on a 80% complete wind farm off Rhode Island’s coast. Even the oil industry has come out to support the wind sector, as I wrote earlier this month, with Shell’s top U.S. executive warning that the precedent the administration had set would harm fossil fuel producers once Democrats return to power. Yet the effects of the administration’s policies are starting to pinch.
Electra announced a series of major deals on Tuesday as the green iron startup unveiled its debut demonstration facility in Boulder, Colorado. Just a month after Microsoft agreed to buy green steel for its data centers from Sweden’s green steelmaker Stegra, Facebook owner Meta agreed to buy environmental attribute credits linked to emissions cut from Electra’s clean iron. The startup also announced three major offtake agreements — the steelmaker Nucor, the European metal trader Edelstahl Group, and Japanese steel-trading giant Toyota Tsusho all signed deals for Electra’s iron. Meanwhile, Electra brought on new financing. Bill Gates’ Breakthrough Energy invested $50 million in grants into the company, while Colorado Governor Jared Polis provided the five-year-old startups with an $8 million tax credit from the state’s clean industrial financing program. And all that is just what the company announced Tuesday. Earlier this year, as Heatmap’s Katie Brigham reported, Electra closed a $186 million Series B round.
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The top U.S. solar trade group, the Solar Energy Industries Association, is looking for a new leader. After eight years in office, Abigail Ross Hopper, the lobby organization’s chief executive, announced her departure Tuesday amid what she called a “challenging” year for the industry in her public exit letter. When she took office in 2017, the solar industry had a total capacity of 36 gigawatts and just over 1 million residential customers. By today, the industry has grown to more than 255 gigawatts and more than 5.5 million residential customers. Despite struggles competing against China, U.S. solar manufacturing capacity vaulted from 14th globally to the world’s third-largest hub of photovoltaic factories. “The growth we’ve experienced over the years is a result of our collective grit and determination,” she wrote in the letter. “We’ve navigated fierce policy battles and market challenges, from trade cases to tax debates, and yet we’ve always emerged stronger. We fought — and won — historic policy battles, at every level of government.” While the Trump administration’s cuts to solar programs have dulled growth forecasts, she said she was “optimistic” about the future. Her last day will be January 30, 2026.
 
After months of negotiations, the U.S. and Australia signed onto a two-way trade deal on critical minerals worth $8.5 billion. The move comes as China ratchets up export controls on rare earths and other metals over which Beijing dominates global supplies. Australia and Canada, whose economies heavily depend on mining, are widely considered the most dependable sources of minerals for the U.S., a dynamic highlighted last week by the cancellation of an American metal project by the leaders of a coup in Madagascar, as I reported for Heatmap. For Australia, the agreement “is a really significant deal,” Hayley Channer, the director of the economic security program at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, told The Guardian. “I’m surprised how good it is. The fact that any U.S. money is coming to Australian companies is huge; we really need this money. I don’t think it could have gone any better.”
Japan just elected its first female prime minister, the arch-conservative former minister of economic security Sanae Takaichi. Like Margaret Thatcher, the first woman to serve as British prime minister, Takaichi has been dubbed the Iron Lady due to her hard-line nationalistic views. But uranium may be a better metal for the nickname. Like Thatcher, Takaichi has vowed to restore Japan’s nuclear industry to its former might. Less than half of Japan’s 33 operable nuclear reactors are currently online and generating electricity, a legacy of the mass shutdown that followed the 2011 Fukushima-Daiichi plant. In lieu of atomic energy, Japan — which lacks the land for vast wind and solar installations — has turned instead to costly liquified natural gas imports. To Takaichi, who wants to remilitarize Japan and take a more aggressive stance toward China, this creates a vulnerability. Without domestic gas fields, Japan relies on imports whose routes the Chinese navy could disrupt in a conflict, weaponizing blackouts in much the same way Russia has in Ukraine. Japan’s offshore wind efforts are badly delayed. And Takaichi has warned that Beijing’s grip over global manufacturing of photovoltaic panels makes solar a threat, as well.
Japan isn’t the only country looking to revive its past atomic ambitions. South Africa’s government approved the state-owned utility Eskom’s integrated resource plan last week, which included starting work again on the company’s abandoned pebble-bed modular reactor program. First proposed in 1999, the technology is billed as safer than light water reactors and more versatile, with the potential for use in more heavy industry settings. But South Africa canceled the program in 2010 after spending $980 million developing the reactor. The country currently depends on coal for nearly 60% of its electricity.
Scientists discovered an ancient climate archive in a remote cave in northern Greenland. In a study published in Nature Geoscience, the researchers found calcite deposits that only form when the ground is unfrozen and water flows. The findings cast new light on past warm periods in the Earth’s climate, particularly the Late Miocene, which began about 11 million years ago. “These deposits are like tiny time capsules,” Gina Moseley, a geologist with the University of Innsbruck in Austria and an author of the study, said in a press release. “They show that northern Greenland was once free of permafrost and much wetter than it is today.”